Financial stability 2/11. Charts

Similar documents
Financial Stability 1/11. Charts

Executive Board meeting. 14 December 2011

Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessement 1/13. Charts

Executive Board Meeting. 21 September 2011

Financial Stability November

Monetary Policy Report 1/12. Charts

Chart 1.1 Risk premiums 1 on European and US corporate bonds. Basis points. 1 January October 2017

Chart 1.1 Unemployment rate. Percent of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 2008 May 2013

Monetary Policy Report 2/12. Charts

Monetary Policy Report 3/11. Charts

Monetary Policy Report 3/12. Charts

Executive Board meeting. 31 October 2012

Outlook for the Norwegian economy

Executive Board meeting

Chart 1.1 GDP. Seasonally adjusted volume index Q1= Q Q4 110

Executive Board meeting

Executive Board meeting

Six good reasons for choosing DNB in the new banking environment

DnB NOR Group. Roar Hoff, Head of Group Risk Analysis. Nordic Bank Seminar, 3 June 2010, Copenhagen

Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN, 8 MAY 2015

Can performance continue?

DANMARKS NATIONALBANK

NORGES BANK S SURVEY OF BANK LENDING

Monetary Policy Report 1/09

Monetary Policy report October 2015

Housing finance in Norway

05 April Government bond yields, curve slopes and spreads Swaps and Forwards Credit & money market spreads... 4

RESULTS DNB GROUP FOURTH QUARTER

DnB NOR Group 1st half and 2nd quarter 2010 results. Bjørn Erik Næss, chief financial officer

Chapter 1 International economy

EU Capital Markets Union The Norwegian Angle

Figure 1.1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands

High Debt, Slow Growth, Financial Instability, Growing Inequality: What Role for Economic Policy?

Financial Stability Review November Press Briefing Luis de Guindos 29 November 2018

The ECB s Strategy in Good and Bad Times Massimo Rostagno European Central Bank

DnB NOR Group. Bjørn Erik Næss, chief financial officer. Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference, June

ECB LTRO Dec Greece program

Potential Gains from the Reform Package

Cyclical Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area

SEE macroeconomic outlook Recovery gains traction, fiscal discipline improving. Alen Kovac, Chief Economist EBC May 2016 Ljubljana

Handelsbanken. January March April 2014

Danske Nordic Bank Seminar

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

DNB GROUP. Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference Madrid June 2014

Account of monetary policy 2017

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 1 st quarter 2018

HOUSING MARKETS, BUSINESS CYCLES AND ECONOMIC POLICIES

Inflation targeting. Governor Svein Gjedrem Gausdal 31 January Mainland GPD and consumer prices Percentage change on previous year

Investor presentation

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 2 nd quarter 2017

OUTLOOK FOR THE HOUSING MARKET AND THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN

SpareBank 1 Boligkreditt

Euro Rates Update. 26 January % 0.9% 0.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% Jan-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 4 th quarter 2017

Monetary Policy Report September 2017

RESULTS DNB GROUP. Rune Bjerke (CEO) Bjørn Erik Næss (CFO)

Slovak Competitiveness: Fundamentals, Indicators and Challenges

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 2 nd quarter 2018

Annex I to the ESRB risk dashboard. Methodological Annex. 1. Interlinkages and composite measures of systemic risk. Last update: September 2017

Euro Rates Update. 26 February % 0.9% 0.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0%

Handelsbanken January June July 2013

DnB NOR Norway and beyond

Norges Bank Watch Kyrre Aamdal, DNB Kjell Erik Lommerud, Universitetet i Bergen

DnB NOR Group. Bjørn Erik Næss, chief financial officer. SEB Enskilda Nordic Banks Seminar, May

Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents

PRESENTATION BY JACOB A. FRENKEL AT THE FORUM: INTELLIGENCE ON THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND ITALY. Villa d'este, Cernobbio - September 7, 8 and 9, 2012

Financial Stability 2018:1. Chapter 1 Assessment of the current situation

Europe in the World Economy: Economic Recovery and Europe 2020

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 3 rd quarter 2017

Costs and benefits of "leaning against the wind": an illustration

Inflation and deflation risks: How to recognise them? How to avoid them?

The economic situation and monetary policy

Outlook Overview: OECD Countries UN LINK Conference, Bangkok October, 2009

New information since the October 2011 Monetary Policy Report (3/11) 1

Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference, London 27 March Jan Erik Back CFO SEB

Handelsbanken January June July 2012

Portuguese Banking System: latest developments. 1 st quarter 2017

Strong platform in Norway. Untapped opportunities for profitable growth

Maintaining Price Stability with Unconventional Monetary Policy

Economic outlook for Euro & talous (Bank of Finland Bulletin) 5/2013 Governor Erkki Liikanen 12 December 2013

Damn the End of QE! Buy the Dollar and Treasurys!

OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF NORWAY

Bayer Annual Report To our Stockholders Investor Information. Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

ABGSC Swedish Banks Treasury lunches

What is the global economic outlook?

Challenges to the single monetary policy and the ECB s response. Benoît Cœuré Member of the Executive Board European Central Bank

Facts. Q3, 2007 October 24, 2007

RESULTS DNB GROUP SECOND QUARTER 2015 AS OF 10 JULY 2015 INVESTOR MEETINGS ZÜRICH & GENÈVE. Terje Turnes (CRO) Jan Erik Gjerland (IR)

Financial Highlights

Recent Recent Developments 0

Investor Presentation. Result presentation. January September 2010

Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy and the MENA Region

Annika Falkengren. President & CEO. Results 2009

Monetary Policy Implementation During US Policy Normalization. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México

Goldman Sachs Financials Conference. Sustaining profitability despite challenging funding conditions. Frans Lindelöw

Financial stability report. Vulnerabilities and risks

Monetary Policy Report December Chapter 1

Danske Bank Fact Book Q Fact Book Q Supplementary Information for Investors and Analysts. Unaudited. Updated: January 31, 2008

Chart 1 Oil investment and spending of petroleum revenues. In billions of 2016 NOK. Average annual change

Transcription:

Financial stability /11 Charts

External sources of risk to banking sector Vulnerability in banking sector Chart 1.1 Vulnerabilities in the Norwegian banking sector and external sources of risk to the banking sector 1) Financial Stability 1/11 Financial Stability /11 Structure of banking sector Funding of banking sector Capital and earnings in banking sector Macroeconomic conditions Enterprises Money and credit Households markets 1) A value of, ie. origo, denotes the lowest level of risk or vulnerability. A value of 1 denotes the highest level of risk or vulnerability. Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1. Banks 1) pre-tax profit as a percentage of average total assets. Per cent. Annual figures. 1. 1 Q1 Q3 and 11 Q1 Q3 3 1-1 - -3 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 Q1-3 11 Q1-3 Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profit 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Source: Norges Bank 3 1-1 - -3

Chart 1.3 Return on equity. Norwegian banks 1) and enterprises. Per cent. Annual figures. 1988 1 3 1-1 - -3-3 1-1 - -3 - -5-6 -7 Banks Enterprises -5-6 -7-8 1988 1991 199 1997 3 6 9 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Source: Norges Bank -8

Chart 1. Indicative risk premiums on 5-year Norwegian bank bonds and covered bonds. Spread against swap rates. Percentage points. Weekly figures. July 7 3 November 11 3,5 3,,5 Small banks with high rating DNB Bank Covered bonds 1) 3,5 3,,5, 1,5 1,,5, -,5 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 1) Banks with total assets between NOK 5bn and 15bn and rated A by DNB Markets Source: DNB Markets, 1,5 1,,5, -,5

Chart 1.5 Yield on 5-year covered bonds 1) and weighted average lending rate on new residential mortgages ). Per cent. Daily figures. July 7 3 November 11 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 Lending rate new residential mortgages Yield on 5-year covered bonds Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 1) Sum of 3-month NIBOR and indicative credit spreads on 5-year covered bonds ) Interest rate on new residential mortgages of NOK 1m within 6% of purchase price with variable interest rate. Figures for the largest banks, weighted by market share Sources: Norsk Familieøkonomi AS, DNB Markets and Norges Bank 5 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 3 1

Chart 1.6 Average bank lending rate for non-financial private enterprises 1) and yield on 5-year bank bonds ). Per cent. Quarterly and daily figures. 7 Q 11 Q3 and July 7 3 November 11 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 Average lending rate enterprises Yield on 5-year bank bonds Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jun-9 Dec-9 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 1) All Norwegian banks ) Sum of 3-month NIBOR and indicative credit spreads on 5-year bank bonds Sources: Statistics Norway, DNB Markets and Norges Bank Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet 6 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 3 1

Chart 1.7 Banks 1) securities holdings as a percentage of total assets. Per cent. Annual figures. 1987 1 and 11 Q3 18 16 1 1 1 8 6 Securities at fair value Adjusted for government securities in the swap arrangement Securities, non-current assets 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 5 8 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Source: Norges Bank 18 16 1 1 1 8 6

Chart 1.8 Banks 1) and OMF covered bond mortgage companies ) Tier 1 capital ratio and equity ratio. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 1991 Q 11 Q3 3) 1 1 Tier 1 capital ratio banks Equity ratio banks and OMF covered bond mortgage companies Equity ratio banks 1 1 8 8 6 6 1991 199 1997 3 6 9 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Norwegian OMF covered bond mortgage companies 3) Figures for Tier 1 capital ratio as at 11 Q Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

Chart 1.9 Banks 1) after-tax profits as a percentage of risk-weighted assets. Sum of previous four quarters. Per cent. Annual figures 1. Quarterly figures 11 Q,, 1,6 1,6 1, 1,,8,8,,, 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Source: Norges Bank,

Chart 1.1 Funding as a percentage of assets. Norwegian-owned banks and covered bond mortgage companies. Quarterly figures. 7 Q 11 Q3 1 1 8 8 6 6 Dec-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jun-9 Dec-9 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Equity Other long-term debt in NOK Other long-term debt in foreign currency 1) Other short-term debt in NOK Customer deposits Swap arrangement and F-loans > 1 year 1) Other short-term debt in foreign currency 1) Short-term debt is debt with a maturity of 1 year or less Source: Norges Bank Norges Bank Finansiell Stabilitet 1

Chart 1.11 Banks 1) stable funding as a percentage of stable funding requirement (NSFR). ) Weighted average for group. End of quarter 1 11 Q1 1 1 11 Q3 1 8 8 6 6 All banks DNB + commercial banks Savings banks Total assets > NOK bn Savings banks Total assets < NOK bn The broken line shows the requirement under the Net Stable Funding Ratio (Basel III) 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway. ) Norges Bank s estimate Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.1 Banks and covered bond mortgage companies 1) weighted residual maturity of gross market funding maturing in more than one year. In years. Quarterly figures. 7 Q 11 Q3 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 Covered bond mortgage companies Banks and covered bond mortgage companies Banks Dec-7 Dec-8 Dec-9 Dec-1 1) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign institutions in Norway. Break in series in 9 Q as a result of more closely defined intervals Source: Norges Bank Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet 1

Chart 1.13 Banks and covered bond mortgage companies senior bond debt by maturity in NOK and foreign currency. As of 3 November 11. In billions of NOK 3 5 Bank bonds in NOK Bank bonds in foreign currency Covered bonds in NOK Covered bonds in foreign currency 3 5 15 15 1 1 5 5 11 1 1h 1 h 13 1 15 16 >=17 Sources: Bloomberg and Stamdata 13

Chart 1.1 Banks 1) gross short-term market funding as a percentage of total assets. Per cent. Quarterly figures. Q1 11 Q3 3 3 5 Foreign currency NOK 5 15 15 1 1 5 5 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1) All banks excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway. Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.15 Banks 1) liquid assets as a percentage of required liquid assets (LCR). ) Weighted average for group. End of quarter 1 11 Q1 1 1 11 Q3 1 8 8 6 6 All banks DNB + commercial banks Savings banks Total assets > NOK bn Savings banks Total assets < NOK bn The broken line shows the requirement under the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (Basel III) 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway. ) Norges Bank s estimate Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.16 Funding structure of Norwegian banks 1). Division into groups based on total assets (TA). ) Percentage of total assets. Per cent. As at 11 Q 16 1 1 Equity Various other debt Debt to credit institutions Secured customer deposits Subordinated debt Bank bonds and certificates Unsecured customer deposits 16 1 1 1 8 6 TA > NOK 5bn NOK 1bn < TA < NOK 5bn 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Nordlandsbanken is included in the group TA > NOK 5bn Source: Norges Bank TA < NOK 1bn 1 8 6

Chart 1.17 Funding structure of the five largest banking groups. 1) Percentage of total assets. ) Per cent. As at 1 Q 16 1 1 Equity Various other debt Debt to credit institutions Covered bond (OMF) debt Subordinated debt Bank bonds and certificates Customer deposits 16 1 1 1 1 8 8 6 6 DNB Bank Nordea Fokus Bank Handelsbanken SR-Bank 1) DNB Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, Fokus Bank filial av Danske Bank, Handelsbanken NUF and SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ) Shares of lending for Fokus Bank filial av Danske Bank and Handelsbanken NUF 3) Including loans transferred to SpareBank 1 Boligkreditt Sources: Public financial information from the institutions and Norges Bank s estimates 3)

Chart 1.18 Composition of Norwegian banks 1) assets. Division into groups based on total assets (TA) as at 11 Q. ) Percentage of total assets. Per cent. As at 6 Q and 11 Q 16 1 1 1 8 6 Lending to the retail market Net lending to other customers Financial assets (mark-to-market) Other assets Big 6 Big 11 Medium 6 Lending to the corporate market Lending to credit institutions Financial assets (non-current assets) Medium 11 Small 6 Small 11 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Big: TA > NOK 5bn, medium: NOK 1bn < TA < NOK 5bn, small: TA < NOK 1bn Nordlandsbanken is included in the group of big banks Source: Norges Bank 16 1 1 1 8 6

Chart 1.19 Share of mortgage loans that banks 1) have transferred to covered bond mortgage companies. Average for all banks. ) Per cent. As at 11 Q 3) 1 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 Weighted average for all banks 1 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 1) Banks with more than NOK 35bn in total assets as at 11 Q ) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway 3) As at 1 Q for Nordea Bank Norge Sources: Public financial information from the institutions and Norges Bank s estimates

Chart1 Total assets in the banking sector as a share of GDP in different countries. Per cent. As of 31 December 1 US Iceland Greece Italy Norway Finland Sweden Spain Denmark France Switzerland UK Ireland Mainland Norway 1 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 Sources: Central banks, Thomson Reuters, FDIC, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1. Projected GDP growth in 1, US and euro area. Per cent. Monthly figures. Projections through 11 3 US 3 3 Euro area NOMURA Consensus Forecasts IMF JP Morgan 3 1 NOMURA Consensus Forecasts IMF JP Morgan 1 1 1-1 May Jun -1 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov -1 May Jun -1 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Sources: Nomura, Consensus Economics, IMF and JP Morgan

Chart 1.1 Projected output gap 1) for mainland Norway and Norway s trading partners. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 8 Q1 1 Q Mainland Norway FS /11 Mainland Norway FS 1/11 Trading partners FS /11 Trading partners FS 1/11 - - - - -6 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP and projected potential GDP Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank -6

Chart 1. Bank lending surveys in the euro area. Net share of banks that have tightened credit standards. Quarterly figures. 3 Q1 11 Q3 1 1 8 Enterprises (euro area) Households (euro area) 8 6 6 - - - 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 - Source: ECB 3

Chart 1.3 Government bond spreads. Compared with German government bonds. 1-year maturity. Percentage points. Daily figures. 1 January 7 3 November 11 3 3 3 8 6 18 16 1 1 1 8 6 Greece Portugal Ireland Italy Spain Belgium France Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Source: Thomson Reuters 3 3 3 8 6 18 16 1 1 1 8 6

Chart 1. Equity index prices. Indices. 1 January 7=1. Daily figures. January 7 3 November 11 1 1 1 US (S&P 5) Norway (OSEBX) Europe (STOXX 6) 1) Banks in the Euro area (STOXX Index) 1 1 1 8 8 6 6 7 8 9 1 11 1) STOXX 6 Banks is a capital-weighted index comprising European banks Source: Thomson Reuters

Chart 1.5 Risk premium on European and US bank bond indices. 5-year average maturity. AA-rating. Basis points. 3 December 1996 3 November 11 6 5 US Euro area 6 5 3 3 1 1 Jan-99 Jan-1 Jan-3 Jan-5 Jan-7 Jan-9 Jan-11 Source: Thomson Reuters

Chart 1.6 CDS prices. itraxx Senior Financials 1) and Nordic banks. Basis points. Daily figures. 1 January 7 3 November 11 35 3 5 itraxx Danske Bank DNB Nordea 35 3 5 15 15 1 1 5 5 1) itraxx Senior Financials comprises 5 large European financial institutions Source Bloomberg

Chart 1.7 Volume of bonds and OMF covered bonds issued by Norwegian banks and mortgage companies. In billions of NOK. Annual and monthly figures. 5 1. January November 1) 1 and 11 3 Bank bonds - NOK 3 5 Bank bonds - foreign currencies OMF covered bonds - NOK OMF covered bonds - foreign currencies 5 15 15 1 1 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 1 Jan-Nov 1 1) As at 3 November Sources: Stamdata and Bloomberg Jan-Nov 11

Chart 1.8 Spread between 3-month money market rate and market expectations as to the key rate. 1) Percentage points. 5-day moving average. Daily figures. 5 January 7 3 November 11 3 Norway Euro area US 3 1 1 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 1) Expected key rates are derived from Overnight Indexed Swaps (OIS). OIS for Norway estimated by Norges Bank Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 1.9 Household debt burden 1) and interest burden ). Per cent. Quarterly figures. 1988 Q1 1 Q 3) 1 1 Debt burden (right-hand scale) Interest burden (left-hand scale) 5 8 6 15 1 5 1988 1991 199 1997 3 6 9 1 1) Debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested share dividends for 5 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 6 1 ) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested share dividends 5 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 6 1, plus interest expenses 3) Projections for 11 Q1 1 Q from Monetary Policy Report 3/11. The grey broken lines show projections from Monetary Policy Report /11 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1.3 Change in loan conditions for households. Factors affecting credit standards. Net percentage balances. 1) ) As at 11 Q3 6 Lending margins Maximum loan-toincome ratio Maximum loan-to-value ratio Fees Use of interestonly periods 6 - - - - -6 Q Q3 Q Q Q3 Q Q Q3 Q Q Q3 Q Q Q3 Q -6 1) Net percentage balances are calculated by weighting together the responses in the bank survey. The blue bars show developments in the past quarter. The yellow diamonds show expectations for the next quarter. The yellow diamonds have been moved forward one quarter ) Positive net percentage balances for lending margins and fees indicate tighter credit Standards. Negative net percentage balances for the other factors denote tighter credit standards Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.31 Share of households with less than three months wages as financial margin 1). Annual figures. 1987 and 9 3 5 Figures for 1987 5 percentage point increase on figures for 9 Figures for 9 3 5 15 15 1 1 5 5 Less than 1 month's wages Between 1 and 3 months' wages 1) Financial margin is yearly wages after tax less interest expenses and standard living expenses (as defined by National Institute for Consumer Research, SIFO) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1.3 House prices in selected countries. Indices. 1995 Q1 = 1. Quarterly figures. 1995 Q1 11 Q3 1) 35 3 5 15 1 5 Norway UK Sweden Denmark New Zealand 1995 1997 1999 1 3 5 7 9 11 1) For Denmark and New Zealand to 11 Q Source: Thomson Reuters 33 35 3 5 15 1 5

Percentage change in house prices, 1997-7 Chart 1.33 Change in household leverage and house prices before the financial crisis. Per cent. Annual figures. 1997-7 15 UK IRL 15 1 FRA SWE NOR SPA DEN 1 5 ITA FIN US NLD 5 GER -5 JPN - 6 8 1 Percentage point change in household leverage, 1997-7 The broken line depicts the best fit relationship in the data as generated by a simple least square statistical regression Sources: OECD, Haver Analytics and Eurostat -5

Percentage change in consumption, 8 Q - 9 Q1 Chart 1.3 Change in household leverage before the financial crisis and consumption during the financial crisis. Per cent. Annual and quarterly figures. 1997-7 and 8 Q 9 Q1 GER AUS FRA - - JPN BEL ITA FIN SWE US NOR UK SPA POR NLD - - -6 DEN IRL -6-8 -8-6 8 1 Percentage point change in household leverage, 1997-7 The broken line depicts the best fit relationship in the data as generated by a simple least square statistical regression Sources: OECD, Haver Analytics and Eurostat

Chart 1.35 Deflated house prices. Indices. 1985 = 1. Annual figures. 1985 11 1) 3 5 Deflated by CPI Deflated by paid rent Deflated by construction costs Deflated by disposable income per capita Deflated by disposable income 3 5 15 15 1 1 5 5 1985 1988 1991 199 1997 3 6 9 1) Projections for 11 Sources: Association of Norwegian Real Estate agents, Association of Real Estate Agency firms, Finn.no, Econ Pöyry, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1.36 Rise in number of households 1) and completed dwellings. Annual figures. 11 ) 5 35 3 5 15 1 5 Rise in number of households Number of completed dwellings 5 35 3 5 15 1 5 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 First half 1) Estimated rise in number of households - ) Rise in number of households for first half of 11 is based on population growth in this period Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1.37 Debt-servicing capacity 1) for different industries. Per cent. Annual figures. 8 1 Total Commercial property Business services 1 9 8 Transportation Shipping Retail trade, hotels and restaurants Construction Electricity and water supply Manufacturing Oil services Primary industries -5 5 15 5 35 5 1) Profit before tax, depreciation and impairment losses as a percentage of bank and bond debt. Intragroup funding is not included. Only enterprises with debt are included Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.38 Return on equity 1) for listed enterprises ) and all private limited enterprises 3). Quarterly figures for listed enterprises, annual figures for all private limited enterprises. Per cent. 1987 11 3 5 15 1 5-5 Listed enterprises Average, listed enterprises 3 Q1-11 Q Average, all private limited enterprises 1987-1 All private limited enterprises 3 5 15 1 5-5 -1-1 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 5 8 11 1) Profit before tax as a percentage of book equity. Return on equity for listed enterprises is based on profits over the previous four quarters ) Non-financial listed enterprises (excl. Statoil) 3) Public administration, bank/insurance and extraction of primary resources are not included in the sample Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1.39 Output growth. Enterprises in Norges Bank s regional network. Aggregated. Annualised index 1) (left-hand scale) and per cent (right-hand scale). October September 11. Estimate for March 1 5 1 3 1-1 - Past 3 months 6 months ahead 8 6 - - -3 Oct- Apr- Oct-5 Apr-7 Oct-8 Apr-1 Oct-11-6 1) The index ranges from -5 to 5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5 indicates strong growth Source: Norges Bank s regional network

Chart 1. 1-month growth in domestic credit (C) and total debt (C3) to nonfinancial enterprises. Mainland Norway. Per cent. Monthly figures. January September 11 3 5 C C3 3 5 15 15 1 1 5 5-5 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11-5 Source: Statistics Norway

Chart 1.1 Equity ratio for listed enterprises 1) and private limited enterprises ). Quarterly figures for listed enterprises, annual figures for all private limited enterprises. Per cent. 11 5 5 3 3 1 Listed enterprises Average, listed enterprises Q - 11 Q All private limited enterprises Average, all private limited enterprises 1987-1 1 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 5 8 11 1) Non-financial listed enterprises (excl. Statoil) 3) Public administration, bank/insurance and extraction of primary resources are not included in the sample Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1. Real selling prices 1) for office premises in Oslo and Bergen. ) NOK per square metre. Semi-annual figures. June 1981 June 11 5 35 3 Oslo Average, Oslo 1981-11 Bergen Average, Bergen 1981-11 5 35 3 5 15 1 5 5 15 1 5 1981 198 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 5 8 11 1) Deflated by CPI ) Average market value for high-standard offices centrally located in Oslo and Bergen Sources: OPAK, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1.3 Vacancy rate 1) for office premises in Oslo, Asker and Bærum. Per cent of total square metres. Semi-annual figures. March September 11 1 1 1 1 8 8 6 6 Vacancy rate Average - 11 3 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1) DNBs definition of office vacancy rate includes both direct lease and sublease and areas that will be ready for new tenants within the next 1 months Source: DNB Næringsmegling Norges Bank Finansiell stabilitet

Chart 1. Freight rates (Clarksea index) 1) in USD per day and selling price of ships in millions of USD. Monthly figures. January 199 October 11 5 Freight rates 5 Selling price 3 3 1 1 199 199 199 1996 1998 6 8 1 1) A weighted average for earnings in the tanker, bulk, container and gas segments. Deflated by US CPI Source: Clarkson Research Services Ltd

Chart.1 GDP trading partners. Annual volume change. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 1) 6 - - -6-8 Baseline scenario Stress scenario -1 5 7 9 11 13 1) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 6 - - -6-8 -1

Chart. Mainland GDP. Annual volume change. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 1) 6 6 - - - Baseline scenario Stress scenario Less pronounced fall in credit growth -6 5 7 9 11 13 1) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank - -6

Chart.3 Growth in credit to enterprises (C3). Year-on year growth 1). Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) 5 5 15 1 5-5 -1 Baseline scenario Stress scenario Less pronounced fall in credit growth -15 5 7 9 11 13 1) Change in stock of loans measured at year-end ) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 15 1 5-5 -1-15

Chart. Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Stress scenario. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) 3 1-1 - -3 3 1-1 - -3-5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 - Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Projections for 11 1 for DNB Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart.5 Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratio. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) 1 1 1 1 8 8 6 6 Baseline scenario Stress scenario Less pronounced fall in credit growth Average 3-7 5 7 9 11 13 1) DNB Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge ) Projections for 11 1 Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank

Chart.6 Banks 1) Tier 1 capital ratios with less pronounced fall in credit growth. Banks are ranked by Tier 1 capital ratio. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) 1 1 1 8 6 3) Median Highest and lowest value Current minimum Tier 1 capital ratio Proposed minimum Tier 1 capital ratio 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1) DNB Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge ) Projections for 11 1 3) Median is defined here as the middle bank in a list where half the banks have a lower Tier 1 capital ratio than the median bank Sources: Finanstilsynet (Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway) and Norges Bank 1 1 1 8 6

Chart 1 Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Per cent. Annual figures. 1 11. 11 Q1 Q3 3 1-1 - 3 1-1 - -3 1 11 Q1 Q3 FS 1/11 11 Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profit 1) DnB Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge ) Annualized 3) Baseline scenario in Financial Stability Report 1/11 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank ) 3) -3

Chart Banks 1) loan losses as a percentage of gross lending. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1. 11 Q1 Q3 1,,5 Median ) Highest and lowest value 1,,5,, -,5 -,5-1, 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 Q1 Q3 3) -1, 1) DnB Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge ) Median is defined here as the middle bank in a list where half the banks have lower loan losses than the median bank 3) Annualized Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 3 Banks 1) loan losses in baseline scenario. Percentage of gross lending. Annual figures. 5 1 1,,5 Historical figures Baseline scenario FS /11 Baseline scenario FS 1/11 Baseline scenario FS /1 Baseline scenario FS 1/1 1,,5,, -,5 -,5-1, -1, 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 1) DNB Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart Banks 1) pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Baseline scenario. Per cent. Annual figures. 5 1 ) 3 1-1 - -3 3 1-1 - -3-5 6 7 8 9 1 11 1 13 1 - Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profit 1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway ) Projections for 11 1 for DnB Bank, Nordea Bank Norge, SpareBank 1 SR-Bank, Sparebanken Vest, SpareBank 1 SMN and SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank