TABLES 1.1 Impact of35.9% to 5% tariff reduction on the Chinese economy 6 1.2 APEC members gain from Manila Action Plan for APEC 10 2.1 China's geographic trade structure, 1970-96 24 4.1 Australia's import weighted average tariffs by source 48 5.1 Agencies active in the Asia Pacific economies 64 5.2 Catalysing economic and technical cooperation within APEC 66 6.1 Projected annual average growth of macroeconomic variables, 1992-2005 95 6.2 The impact on China of APEC and unilateral trade liberalisation, 2020 97 6.3 The impact on China's production of APEC and unilateral trade liberalisation, 2020 98 6.4 The impact on China's exports of APEC and unilateral trade liberalisation, 2020 98 6.5 The impact on China's imports of APEC and unilateral trade liberalisation, 2020 99 6.6 APEC and unilateral trade liberalisation versus global trade liberalisation, 2020 101 6.7 The impact of trade liberalisation on China: sensitivity analysis, 2020 102 A6.1 Region descriptions 104 A6.2 Commodity descriptions 104 B6.1 Central scenario trade elasticities used in this study 105 7.1 The effect of trade liberalisation on employment in selected industries 113 7.2 Market structure of manufactures and expected trade policy industry 115 8.1 Protection in the form oftaxes and fees for automobiles 123 8.2 Level of non-tax protection of selected imported automobiles 124 8.3 China's textile import tariff rates structure 125 8.4 Import trade structure of textile products and their applied tariff rate, 1994 126 8.5 Textile price comparison of imported and domestic products 127 8.6 Effect of tariff changes on automobile imports and domestic supply under different schemes 130 8.7 Cost of automobile trade protection under different schemes 130 8.8 Impact of tariff rate change on selected textile products' imports, domestic production and total demand 132 8.9 Effect of textile import protection 133 9.1 Trade competitiveness index of the chemical sector 137 9.2 Domestic to international price ratio for selected products 138 9.3 Export to import price ratio for selected products, 1995 138 9.4 Equipment status of large and medium-size chemical enterprises, 1995 141 9.5 R&D activities by large and medium enterprises, 1995 142 9.6 Change in industrial concentration in China's chemical sector 143 9.7 Degree of concentration of selected products in China and Japan 143 9.8 Current and planned capacity of ethylene 144 vu
9.9 9.10 9.l1 12.1 12.2 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 Estimation of the effect of imports on China's chemical sector Involvement offdi in China's chemical sector Domestic market share offfes in China's chemical sector Activities in the 13 ecotech areas, November 1996 Types of and priorities for harnessing technologies for the future Utilisation of foreign capital by China, 1979-96 FDI by form, 1979-96 FDI by source area, 1979-96 FDI by industry, 1979-95 FDI by region in China, 1990-94 FDI by amount of average program and the ratio of actually paid principal, 1991-95 13.7 FDI enterprises' performance during 8 th Five-year Plan 13.8 FDI as a ratio of China's GDP and investment in fixed assets 13.9 Imports and exports of FDI enterprises as a share of China's total foreign trade 13.10 The foreign exchange balance offdi enterprises 13.11 Taxes paid by FDI enterprises as a proportion of China's total tax revenue 13.12 Technology import projects and contracted value by type of import 13.13 Technology import projects and contracted value by type of import 13.14 Exports and imports ofhigh-tech products, manufactured industrial products and primary products 146 147 148 213 214 228 230 231 234 237 238 239 13.15 Scientific and technological research institutions 240 13.16 Technology import projects and contracted value by region of import 241 14.1 East Asian balance of trade, 1986-96 251 14.2 Growth rates of exports of labour-intensive products of ASEAN 4,1986-96 253 14.3 14.4 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 Trade orientation of capital-intensive products by ASEAN 4 and NIEs, 1986 and 1996 Changing industrial structure of Japan and NIEs, 1986 and 1994 Estimation of the gravity model Average trade efficiency indexes for sample countries Bilateral trade efficiency indexes for China Determinants of trade efficiency 254 256 264 265 266 268 FIGURES 1.1 China's tariff reduction trend 5 2.1 China's tariff reductions 22 4.1 The relationship between Australia's average tariff rates and per capita GDP of APEC member economies (with a dummy variable for China), 1997 49 4.2 Australia's net export ratios in the bilateral food product trade with China, 1996 52 viii
4.3 China's food sector import tariffs, 1997 14.1 Changes in East Asian exchange rate (composite) and trade growth, 1966-96 14.2 Changes in the East Asian exchange rate against the US dollar 14.3 Changes in yenlus dollar exchange rate and East Asian GDP growth, 1970-98 14.4 Real exchange rate for Southeast Asian economies, 1975-98 14.5 Real exchange rate for Northeast Asian economies, 1975-98 14.6 East Asian share oflabour-intensive products in US market, 1965-95 14.7 Product structure of East Asian exports to the United States, 1965-95 15.1 Conventional versus frontier gravity models 53 245 246 248 250 250 252 252 262 ABBREVIATIONS ABAC ADB AFTA AIMS AMF APEC ARF ASEAN ASEM ASPAC AusAID BOT CAP CIF CCP CIA CITIC CNOOC CSCAP cn EAEC EAFTZ EAMF EC ecotech EEC EPA ESC EU APEC Business Advisory Council Asian Development Bank ASEAN Free Trade Area APEC Impediments Management System Asian Monetary Fund Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Regional Forum Association of South East Asian Nations Asia-Europe Meeting Asia and Pacific Council Australian Agency for International Development build--operate-transfer Collective Action Plan Cost including freight Chinese Communist Party Central Intelligence Agency China International Trust and Investment Corporation China National Offshore Oil Corporation Council on Security Cooperation in Asia Pacific Committee for Trade and Investment East Asian Economic Caucus East Asian Free Trade Zone East Asian Monetary Fund European Community economic and technical cooperation European Economic Community Economic Planning Agency Sub-committee on Economic and Technical Cooperation European Union IX
EVSL FDC FDI FFE GATT GDP GNP HRD IAP IMF IST ITA JDA JETRO JEXIM JNOC JSDF KEDO LDP LTTA MAPA MCEDSEA MFA MFN MITI MOFTEC NAFTA NATO NGOs NIE NPT OM ODA OECD OECF PAFTAD PBEC PECC PEG PFP PLA Early Voluntary Sectoral Liberalisation Foundation for Development Cooperation foreign direct investment foreign funded enterprise General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade gross domestic product gross national product human resource development Individual Action Plan International Monetary Fund Industrial Science and Technology Information Technology Agreement Japan Defence Agency Japan External Trade Organisation The Export-Import Bank of Japan Japan National Oil Corporation Japanese Self Defence Force Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organisation Liberal Democratic Party Long Term Trade Agreement Manila Action Plan for APEC Ministerial Conference on Economic Development in Southeast Asia Multifibre Arrangement most-favoured nation Ministry of International Trade and Industry Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation of China North American Free Trade Agreement North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Non-governmental organisations newly industrialising economy Non-proliferation Treaty Osaka Action Agenda Overseas Development Assistance Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund Pacific Trade and Development Conference Pacific Basin Economic Council Pacific Economic Cooperation Council Partnership for Equitable Growth 'Partners for Progress' People's Liberation Army x
PMV PRC R&D RCA RFE RMB ROC SDF SEATO SEZ Sinopec SITC SLOC SME SOE SOM SSB TC TCF TILF TMD lk UN UNIDO UR US USSR WTO passenger motor vehicle People's Republic of China research and development revealed comparative advantage Russian Far East renminbi Republic of China Self Defence Force Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation Special Economic Zone China Petrochemical Corporation Standard International Trade Classification sea lines of communication small and medium enterprises state-owned enterprise APEC Senior Officials Meetings State Statistical Bureau trade competitiveness index textile, clothing and footwear trade and investment liberalisation and facilitation theatre missile defence United Kingdom United Nations United Nations Industrial Development Organisation Uruguay Round United States Union of Soviet Socialist Republics World Trade Organization SYMBOLS.. not available na not applicable zero Xl