Week ending: December 17, LIBRARY! JUN 0 8 1979 Under Regulation Q the maximum interest rate payable by commercial banks on savings deposits and time deposits of less than $100,000 maturing in less than 90 days is limited to 5 percent. Time deposits of less than $100,000 maturing in 90 days to 1 year and those maturing in 1 to 2 1/2 years are limited to yields of 5 1/2 and 6 percent, respectively. These categories of time and savings deposits generally account for over 70 percent of net time deposits. The level of other short-term interest rates relative to the Regulation Q ceilings has a signif icant impact on the growth rate of net time deposits. For example, from February through June short-term market interest rates, such as the three-month Treasury bill rate, were below 6 percent. During this period net time deposits increased at a 15.6 percent annual rate. In contrast, from July through mid-october short-term interest rates rose above 6 percent and the growth of net time deposits slowed to an 3.8 percent rate. Recently, short-term interest rates have fallen below 6 percent and the growth rate of net time deposits has increased to 13.8 percent. In a similar manner the level of the Federal funds rate relative to the Federal Reserve discount rate influences the volume of member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve. When the Federal funds rate is below the discount rate, it is more attractive for banks to borrow reserves in the Federal funds market than from the Federal Reserve. This was the situation which prevailed from February through June of this year, during which time member bank borrowings from Federal Reserve banks averaged $105 million. In contrast, from July through mid-october the Federal funds rate rose above the discount rate and average member bank borrowings rose to over $300 million. Since mid October the Federal funds rate has dropped below the discount rate and member bank borrowings have averaged below $100 million. Since late October the commercial bank prime lending rate has been lowered from 8 percent to 7.25 percent. Business loans at weekly reporting large com mercial banks have increased by about $1.6 billion during this period. However, business credit demands at com mercial banks remain at very low levels with business loans about $10.5 billion below their peak of last December. THIS RELEASE WILL NOT BE PUBLISHED ON FRIDAY DECEMBER 26, BECAUSE MONEY STOCK AND RELATED DATA WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE. Prepared by Released: December 19,
124 ---------- 1----------,-------- 1215. MILLIONS MONETARY BASE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS BANK ----- ------------- ---------- 124 20 4 18 1 13 29 12 26 12 20 0 23 r 21 4 IS 2 16 90 13 27 10 24 22 5 10 3 17 31 14 26 NOV DEC MAY JUN AUG SEP LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK EM) I MGi DECEMBER 17, THE MONETARY BASE CONSISTS OF MEMBER BANK RESERVES AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANCS AND CURRENCY IN CIROJLATI ON (CURRENCY HELD BY THE PUBLIC AM) IN THE VAULTS OF COMJERCIALBANK SK ADJUSTED 8&L'.?o& t E2*$,!!L*?iE.T5 'tlj* rn>e V DEPOSITS BETWEEN BANKS!ttf«7ZE8A8f-A"E rg'fed&r-es^ssk SP.TMf. *,WT BASE 15 AVAIU<,LE «"EfRINT 3' 1876 TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt 12/18/74 5/19/75 5/14/75 6/18/75 7/16/75 8/20/75 9/17/75 10/15/75 5/14/75 4.1 6/1B/75 5.6 7.1 7/16/75 6.8 8.8 13.1 8/20/75 5.8 6.7 8.3 6.2 9/17/75 6. 1 7.1 8.5 7.1 4.1 10/15/75 5.8 6.6 7.5 6.1 3.7 6.1 11/19/75 6.3 7.1 8.1 7.2 5.6 7.8 7.2 12/17/75 7.0 8.0 9.0 8.4 7.3 9.6 9.6 12.7 2
RATIO 2.8 MULTIPLIER i/ FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT*/ SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 MULTI PLIER 2.6 2.5 _A > X// V. \ 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 975 RATK NOV<. 5 if 1:1 DEC " 10 2.462 2.47S 2.45f «B _LLL.. LLL 1.1 1 1 1 L.L -1.1 1. 1.1 1 1 1U-. -LLL 1 1.1 1 -LLL- 1 1.1 1.111 JJLLL lull. LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 10, J- } J ) Llll 2.3 _ 2.2 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING _ DECEMBER 17, FROM 21.8 AUG. 21.5 FEDERAL RESERVE CREDIT 11.4 1974 112 110 108 106 104 102 975 MILLIONS 100 6 20 4 It 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 9 25 7 21 4 18 2 16 30 15 27 10 24 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 NOV DEC MAY JUN AUG SEP 1974 1976 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 17, 1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml) / MONETARY BASE. 2/ DEFINED TO INCLUDE HOLDINGS OF SECURITIES, LOANS, FLOAT AND *OTHER1 ASSETS. ADJUSTED FOR RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO CHANGES AN) SHIFTS IN THE SAME TYPE OF DEPOSITS BETWEEN BAiMKS WHERE DIFFERENT RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIOS APPLY. DATA ARE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BY THIS DAK*.
680 r----------1------------ 1--------- MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS BILLIONS 662.3 665.7 664.9 666.8 669. 1 667.6 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ------ --------------- ---------680 6 20 4 18 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 9 23 7 21 4 18 2 16 30 13 27 10 2A 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 NOV DEC 1974 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 10, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: MONEY STOCK PLUS NET TIME DEPOSITS (M2) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 12/11/74 3/12/75 5/7/75 6/11/75 7/9/75 8/13/75 9/10/75 10/8/75 5/ 7/75 6.8 6/11/75 9.2 12.6 7/ 9/75 10.0 13. 1 17.7 8/13/75 9.5 11.7 13.8 10.4 9/10/75 9.3 1 1.0 12.3 9.4 7. 1 10/ 8/75 8.5 9.6 10.2 7.4 5.2 4. 1 11/12/75 8.5 9.5 9.9 7.7 6.2 5.9 5.4 12/10/75 8.8 9.8 10.2 8.4 7.3 7.3 7.4 10.3 4
MONEY STOCK SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ailkions. 298.0 299.0 296.0 6 20 4 18 1 15 28 12 26 12 26 0 23 7 21 4 18 2 18 30 13 27 10 24 8 22 3 18 3 17 31 14 28 NOV DEC FEB MAR AUG SEP LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt DECEMBER 10, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS H.6 RELEASE. THE MONEY STOCK CONSISTS OF DEMAND DEPOSITS PLUS CURRENCY AND COIN HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC. TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDINGt 12/11/74 3/12/75 5/7/75 6/11/75 7/9/75 8/13/75 9/10/75 10/8/75 5/ 7/75 0.8 8/11/75 4.4 10.4 7/ 9/75 5. 1 10.2 15.9 8/13/75 4.6 8.2 10.5 5. 1 9/10/75 4.9 8. 1 9.9 5.9 4.2 10/ 8/75 3.9 6.2 7.0 3.2 1.2 1. 1 11/12/75 4.0 6.0 6.5 3.4 2. 1 2.3 0.0 12/10/75 4.3 6.2 6.7 4.2 3.2 3.7 2.5 6.0 5
YI ELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT 12.0 r~ PERCENT I 12.0 11.5 11.5 11.0 11.0 10.5 10.5 10.0 10.0 9.5 9.5 BONDS 9.0 9.0 8.5 8.5 RIME BANK PAN RATE 8.0 8.0 7.5 7.5 UNI Cl PAL I0NDSX8K 7.0 7.0 6.5 8.5 6.0 6.0 COIkMERCIAL PAPER 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 0 M I I 1 13 29 13 27 10 24 7 21 FEB 7 21 MAR 4 16 APR 2 18 30 13 27 11 25 JUN JUL 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 it 12 2«NOV 9 23 DEC 1976 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDINGi DECEMBER 19, 1976 NOV. 7 14 21 28 DEC. 5 12 19 3K 26 JAN. 2 9 16 23 30 6 90 DAY CD'S*** PRIME COMMERCIAL PAPER 4-6 MONTH PRIME BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES CORPORATE Aaa bonds MUNICIPAL B0M3S KK 6.45 6.32 6.10 6.23 6.35 6.32 6.10 6.03 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.96 6.03 6.04 5.79 5.77 5.79 5.80 5.80 5.81 5.75 8.76 8.75 8.81 8.81 8.84 8.86 8.84 7.52 7.43 7.39 7.39 7.31 7.34 N.A. * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. BOM) BUYER S AVERAGE INDEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BONDS. THURSDAY DATA. *XX SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES OF SECONDARY MARKET RATES FOft THE WEEK END ING WEDNESDAY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATES SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS H.9 RELEASE. N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE 0
SELECTED SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES ENDED FRIDAY PERCENT PERCENT 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 DISCOUNT RATE 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 1 15 29 13 27 10 24 7 21 FEB 7 21 MAR 4 18 APR 2 16 30 15 27 JUN 11 25 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 JUL 14 28 12 28 NOV 9 23 0 DEC 1974 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING. DECEMBER 19, 1976 NOV. DEC. JAN. 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 K 26 2 9 16 23 30 FEDERAL FUNDS** 3-MONTH TREASURY BILLS 1-YEAR TREASURY BILL 3-5 YEAR GOVERMrfENT SECURITIES LONG-TERM GOVERNMENT SECURITIES 5.17 5.24 5.24 5.28 5.25 5.26 5.17 5.50 5.37 5.49 5.54 5.57 5.60 5.49 5.89 5.96 6.17 6.24 6.30 6.43 6.26 7.41 7.38 7.60 7.62 7.59 7.67 7.52 7.17 7.17 7.25 7.24 7.23 7.26 7.19 * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE. ** SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES F'n EEK ENDING WEu,E"9AY TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IK ihe BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.9 RELEASE. 7
8 NET TIME DEPOSITS ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS BILLIONS of dollars SEASONALLY ADJUSTED billions of dollars 375 370 365 BILLIONS 366. 1 367.7 368.5 370.0 370.1 371.6 360 355 350 345 340 335 330 325 0 6 20 4 18 1 13 29 12 28 12 20 9 23 7 21 4 18 2 18 30 13 27 10 24 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 1974 1976 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: DECEMBER 10, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS H.6 RELEASE. K NET TIME DEPOSITS ARE DEFINED AS: SAVINGS DEPOSITS. TIME DEPOSITS OPEN ACCOUNT PLUS TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT OTHER THAN NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS. TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: NET TIME DEPOS1TS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 12/11/74 3/12/75 5/7/75 6/11/75 7/9/75 8/13/75 9/10/75 10/6/75 5/ 7/75 12. 1 6/11/75 13.5 14.4 7/ 9/75 14.2 15.6 19.4 8/13/75 13.9 14.7 16.6 15. 1 9/10/75 13. 1 13.4 14.2 12.3 9.3 10/ 8/75 12.5 12.5 12.8 1 1.0 8.5 6.5 11/12/75 12.5 12.5 12.8 11.4 9.7 8.9 10.0 12/10/75 12.7 12.8 13. 1 11.9 10.6 10.3 11.6 13.8
DEMAND DEPOSIT COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK 230 ----------,----------,-------- BILLIONS 223.4 224.7 223.0 223.3 225. 1 222.2 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ----- ------------- ---------- 230 6 20 4 18 4 18 2 16 30 13 27 10 24 8 22 5 IS 3 17 31 14 28 NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 1974 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENOINGi DECEMBER 10, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS H.6 RELEASE. TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 12/11/74 3/12/75 5/7/75 6/11/75 7/9/75 8/13/75 9/10/75 10/8/75 5/ 7/75-1.2 6/11/75 3.0 10.6 7/ 9/75 3.8 10.3 16.5 8/13/75 3.2 7.9 10.3 4.0 9/10/75 3.8 8.0 9.9 5.4 3.7 10/ 8/75 2.6 5.7 6.5 2. 1 0.0 0.0 11/12/75 2.6 5.3 5.8 2.3 0.8 1.1-2.1 12/10/75 2.9 5.3 5.7 2.7 1.6 2.1 0.2 4.0 9
CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS WEDNESDAY FIGURES NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 8 20 4 18 1 IS 29 12 28 12 28 9 23 7 21 4 18 2 16 30 13 27 10 24 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 NOV DEC 1974 1976 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. DECEMBER 10, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE. NEGOTIABLE TIME CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE BY LARGE WEEKLY REPORTING COMMERCIAL BANKS. 1976 CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT NOT SEAS. ADJ. CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT SEAS. ADJ. NOV. 5 82.7 81.0 12 82.5 80.9 19 82.8 81.2 26 83.0 81.5 DEC. 3 83.5 82.4 10 17 24 31 JAN. 7 14 21 28 83.4 82.9 10
BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS ALL MEMBER BANKS IN THE NATION " 3.5 3.5 = 1rn 3.0 07 JS kill i inui 2. 3.0 zz NC)V. 12 40 2.5 19 59 2.5 26 74 zz D IC. 3 67 2.0 10 30 2.0 zz 17 45 1.5 =/' 1.5 1.0 0.5 TTTT ZZ 1.0 0.5 111 111 Jill 111 111 J 111 111 111 _LLJ 1 111 ALL J_LLL ALL Jill _LLL» AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1974 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL LATEST DATA PLOTTED SEEK ENDINGt DECEMBER 17, 5 It NOV S 17 SI M 2t DEC JAN 1978 134 -------------------- -------- BUSINESS LOANS ( COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ) WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ----- ------------- ---------- 134 D ANNUAL RATES I w, i wi a rnvi THE FOUR WE ks ENDING AUG. 13 JUN. 11-2.4 MAR. 12-6.9 DEC. 11-8.0 mu 6 20 4 18 1 15 29 12 20 12 26 9 25 7 21 4 18 2 16 50 13 27 10 24 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 28 FEB MAR AUG SEP 1974 1976 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. DECEMBER 10, 11
MEMBER BANK DEPOSITS SUBJECT TO RESERVE REQUIREMENTS (CREDIT PROXY ) COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING DECEMBER 10. FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING. CREDIT CREDIT PROXY IBQW AkfliSIEE JUL. 1974 10.5 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.CREDIT PROXY ADJUSTED 1/ 540 530 520 510 500 CREDIT PROXY 490 CREDIT CREDIT ffiflxy ADJUSTED 502.3 510.3 513.1 504.9 513.5 505.6 514.1 508.1 516.2 514.8 480 470 6 20 4 1# 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 9 23 7 21 4 16 2 16 30 13 27 10 24 8 22 5 19 3 17 31 14 26 NOV DEC FEB MAR MAY JUN AUG SEP LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING. DECEMBER 10, CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.9 RELEASE. 1/ INCLUDES MEMBER BANK 'OSITS, BANK-RELATED COMMERCIAL PAPER, EURODOLLAR BORROWINGS OF U.S. BANKS, AND CERTA OTHER NONDEPOSIT SOURCES.