Greenback Tumbled to a 3-Year Low

WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Greenback Tumbled to a 3-Year Low #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: A weaker-than-expected year-end... at first glance. ff U.S. home sales dropped in December. ff Canada: November saw higher wholesale and retail sales. ff Canada: Total annual inflation rate fell to % in December. A LOOK AHEAD ff United States: A slight decline in ISM manufacturing is expected. ff United States: Job growth should pick up slightly after disappointing December results. ff Canada: Real GDP expected to get back on track for growth in November. FINANCIAL MARKETS ff Rising uncertainties about Canada s trade relationship with the United States penalizes the Canadian stock market. ff U.S. bond yields continue to climb. ff The greenback suffers another loss. CONTENTS Key Statistics of the Week... 2 United States, Canada A Look Ahead... 4 United States, Canada, Overseas Financial Markets... 3 Economic Indicators of the Week... 6 Tables Economic indicators... 8 Major financial indicators...10 François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist Mathieu D Anjou, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist, Economic Studies: 514 281 2336 or 1 866 866 7000, ext. 5552336 desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Group. Copyright 2018, Group. All rights reserved.

Key Statistics of the Week UNITED STATES CANADA ff Real GDP rose 2.6% (annualized) in the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the preliminary estimate for national accounts. This is lower than the 3.2% gain recorded last summer. Final domestic demand still advanced 4.3%. Overall, in 2017, real GDP rose %, more than the 1.5% recorded in 2016, but less than the 2.9% registered in 2015. ff The total consumer price index (CPI) fell in December, in line with our expectations. The annual change in total CPI went from % in November to % in December. As expected, arithmetic effects led to a drop in the annual change in the total CPI in December. This phenomenon should even intensify in January as the annual change could fall closer to the lower target. That being said, a relatively quick return to the mid-point target (2%) can be expected to follow as fundamental trends reassert themselves. Among other things, some inflationary pressures should be increasingly felt as excess production capacity is absorbed. Overall for 2017, the total annual inflation rate was 1.6%, compared with 1.4% in 2016. ff The leading indicator was up in December, which comes on the heels of gains of % in October and in November. In the final month of 2017, the main positive contributors were the ISM index and financial indicators (credit conditions, interest rate and stock market). ff After gaining 5.1%, sales of existing homes slumped 3.6% in December. This brings to an end a series of three consecutive monthly increases. Annualized sales dropped from 5,780,000 units in November to 5,570,000. All major areas saw a decline in sales. Single-family home resales retreated 2.6%, with condo resales plummeting 11.6%. ff New home sales have been fairly volatile over the past few months. After jumping 14.3% in September, they slid 6.3% in October, rebounded 15.0% in November and then dropped 9.3% in December. Annualized sales in the final month of 2017 sat at 625,000 units. The cold weather likely had a negative effect on this result. ff New durable goods orders were up 2.9% in December, while the consensus called for growth under 1%. The aviation sector (civil and military) saw an upsurge of 24.4%. Excluding transportation, a uptick was observed in December. New capital goods orders, excluding defence and aviation, were down. ff Wholesale sales rose 0.7% in November owing to a virtually universal increase in key sectors. In real terms, sales are up. However, inventory volume shrank % during the month. Given these circumstances, the total contribution from wholesale trade to economic growth in November may be slightly negative. ff Retail sales rose just 0.2% in November, coming in below expectations. The disappointment is due mainly to the 5.3% slump in new car dealer sales, while preliminary data had pointed to a substantial increase during the month. As expected, service station sales were robust (+5.9%) on the back of higher gas prices. Other sectors saw gains of 1.2%. In real terms, total sales advanced. Benoit P. Durocher, Senior economist ff The U.S. balance of trade in goods deteriorated in December according to the preliminary version, falling from -US$7B in November to -US$71.6B in December. Francis Généreux, Senior economist 2

Financial Markets U.S. markets herald the quick end to governmental paralysis The threat of a government shutdown in the United States eased during Monday s session. The U.S. stock market took off after this news, remaining stable thereafter. President Donald Trump s announcement of increased tariffs on solar panels and washing machines created jitters on markets which worried about a wave of protectionism, but these fears quickly evaporated. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 was up a tad more than 1.75% since last Friday. The downtrend in Canada s stock market intensified following the United States protectionist measures, which fuelled concerns about the future of Canada s trade relations. Canada s weaker stock market is also grappling with retail sales that fell below expectations and a strong Canadian dollar. By Friday morning, the S&P/TSX had been trimmed by about 0.70% for the week. GRAPH 1 Stock markets Index Index 2,875 16,400 2,825 16,300 2,775 16,200 2,725 16,100 2,675 2,625 16,000 2017/12/14 2017/12/22 2018/01/01 2018/01/09 2018/01/17 2018/01/25 S&P 500 (left) S&P/TSX (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies The U.S. 10 year yield was volatile throughout the week, settling at about 2.65%, close to its level last Friday. The 2 year yield continued to climb, driven in part by the greenback s plunge, which could be inflationary, and the upbeat economic data released Friday morning. For their part, Canadian long- and short-term bonds remained fairly stable. The U.S. government shutdown early in the week failed to lift the greenback, which declined over the week. The U.S. Treasury Secretary contributed to the greenback s decline by stating that a weak currency could be a good thing. Donald Trump tried to save the day, but the damage was already done. The European currencies stood out from the pack once again. Even though the European Central Bank (ECB) did not amend its monetary policy statement, the euro reached a new cyclical high of US$ on Thursday. The President of the ECB believes the euro s rise reflects economic improvements, but he is still concerned about the downstream effect this could have on economic growth and inflation. The Canadian dollar did not suffer from the widening interest rate spreads with the United States. The greenback s weakness and climbing oil prices helped the loonie soar above US$0.81. Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist GRAPH 2 Bond markets 10-year yield In % points -0.30 In % -0.35 2.6-0 -5-2.0-0.55 2017/12/14 2017/12/22 Spread (left) 2018/01/01 2018/01/09 United States (right) 2018/01/17 2018/01/25 Canada (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 3 Currency markets US$/C$ US$/ 0.815 0.810 0.805 1.24 1.23 0.800 1.22 0.795 0.790 1.21 1.20 0.785 9 0.780 0.775 2017/12/14 8 7 2017/12/22 2018/01/01 2018/01/09 Canadian dollar (left) 2018/01/17 2018/01/25 Euro (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies 3

A Look Ahead UNITED STATES TUESDAY January 30-9:00 November y/y 6.40% 6.45% October 6.38% S&P/Case-Shiller index of existing home prices (November) Home prices have been on a fast track for the past few months. A 0.7% gain in October followed a 1.0% increase in September. November should see further strong growth with a 0.8% gain expected. This would take the annual change in the S&P/Case-Shiller index from 6.38% to 6.45%. TUESDAY January 30 - January 12 124.0 December 12 Conference Board consumer confidence Index (January) The Conference Board index lost 6.5 points in December, its most drastic monthly decrease since July 2015. Other confidence indicators also posted setbacks in December, but the extent of the decline seems surprising. However, it bears noting that the index had advanced 1 points continuously over the previous five months. Despite the University of Michigan index falling in January, a rise in the Conference Board confidence index is expected for that month. The stock market s strong appreciation and the positive news surrounding President Donald Trump s tax reform should support household sentiment. A drop in jobless claims was also noted. The TIPP confidence index was up during the month, mirroring the Bloomberg weekly index. However, rising gas prices may be a negative factor, just like the (brief) federal government shutdown. All in all, the confidence index is expected to gain a few points. WEDNESDAY January 31-14:00 January December 13 Federal Reserve meeting (January) After a quarterly pause in September, Federal Reserve (Fed) leaders resumed their key interest rate hikes at their December meeting. After such a decision, it would be surprising for the Fed to make any changes to its policy during the meeting ending on January 31st. This is especially true as Chair Janet Yellen will not be holding a press conference after the meeting, which will be her last, and no new economic forecasts will be released. The statement may be tweaked somewhat, however, to reflect the economy s strong performance. We also have to consider that the composition of the monetary policy committee is changing with the turnover of regional members. THURSDAY February 1st - January 59.0 58.1 December 59.7 ISM manufacturing index (January) After two consecutive months of a downward drift, the ISM index jumped noticeably from 58.2 to 59.7. That said, a slight downtick is forecast for January. That is also what the movements of leading regional manufacturing indexes suggest. The index should come to a rest at 58.1, which is still high. FRIDAY February 2 - January 183,000 185,000 December 148,000 Job creation according to the establishment survey (January) After two months of strong job growth, hires were disappointing in December, with an uptick of just 148,000 workers. Better performance is expected for January, however. On average, initial jobless claims were much lower in January than in December. A gain of 185,000 positions is expected. The release of the ISM manufacturing index, ADP index and Conference Board confidence index will shape the forecast. We also need to take into account the negative risk resulting from adverse weather at the beginning of the month, including the frigid temperatures and the weather bomb that brought considerable precipitation to some regions. In addition, expectations are subject to the annual revision of the establishment survey, which will be released at the same time as the January results. Preliminary estimates of revised job numbers for March 2017 suggest 95,000 additional jobs. The jobless rate for January 2018 should hold steady at 4.1%. 4

CANADA WEDNESDAY January 31 - November m/m October % Real GDP by industry (November) Generally speaking, the economic figures were fairly positive for November. In real terms, retail sales rose. Manufacturing sales volumes leaped 2.5%, but their inventories remained unchanged. Wholesale sales, in real terms, inched up. However, their inventories shrank %, fuelling fears of a slightly negative contribution from wholesale trade. Another less favourable factor is the number of hours worked, which slipped 0.7% in November. However, this decrease might not be very significant since it reflects high volatility, as evidenced by the % rebound in hours worked in December. All in all, real GDP by industry could grow by about during the month. OVERSEAS TUESDAY January 30 - Q4 2017 q/q Q3 2017 : Real GDP (Q4) The Euroland economy appears to have been growing at a fairly fast pace since early 2017. The average quarterly growth over the first three quarters of last year reached 0.7%. A similar increase is expected for the final quarter. This brought annual real GDP growth for 2017 to 2.5%, which compares well with % in 2016. Among the other indicators to be released in the coming week are a number of confidence indexes for January, which we will see on Tuesday. The December unemployment rate and the advance estimate for January s inflation will be released on Wednesday. 5

Economic Indicators Week of January 29 to February 2nd, 2018 Day Hour Indicator Period Previous data UNITED STATES MONDAY 29 Personal income (m/m) Personal consumption expenditures (m/m) Personal consumption expenditures deflator Total (m/m) Excluding food and energy (m/m) Total (y/y) Excluding food and energy (y/y) 0.2% 1.6% 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% % 1.5% TUESDAY 30 9:00 S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (y/y) Consumer confidence President D. Trump State of the Union Address 6.40% 12 6.45% 124.0 6.38% 12 WEDNESDAY 31 9:45 14:00 Employment cost index (q/q) Chicago PMI index Pending home sales (m/m) Federal Reserve meeting Q4 64.0 6 n/a 0.7% 67.8 0.2% THURSDAY 1 Initial unemployment claims Nonfarm productivity preliminary (ann. rate) Unit labor costs preliminary (ann. rate) Construction spending (m/m) ISM manufacturing index Total vehicle sales (ann. rate) 235,000 % 1.0% 59.0 17,300,000 240,000 1.2% - 58.1 17,050,000 233,000 % -0.2% 0.8% 59.7 17,760,000 FRIDAY 2 Change in nonfarm payrolls Unemployment rate Weekly worked hours Average weekly earnings (m/m) Michigan s consumer sentiment index final Factory orders (m/m) 183,000 4.1% 34.5 95.0 185,000 4.1% 34.5 94.4 % 148,000 4.1% 34.5 94.4 % % -2.5% % -3.5% 1.4% 5.5% % 22-26 Q4 Q4 CANADA MONDAY 29 TUESDAY 30 WEDNESDAY 31 Industrial product price index (m/m) Raw materials price index (m/m) Real GDP by industry (m/m) THURSDAY 1 FRIDAY 2 Note:, Economic Studies are involved every week in the Bloomberg survey for Canada and the United States. Approximately 15 economists are consulted for the Canadian survey and a hundred or so for the United States. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. Following the quarter, the abbreviations f, s and t correspond to first estimate, second estimate and third estimate respectively. The times shown are Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5 hours). Forecast of, Economic Studies of the Group. 6

Economic Indicators Week of January 29 to February 2nd, 2018 Country Hour Indicator Period m/m (q/q) y/y Previous data m/m (q/q) y/y OVERSEAS MONDAY 29 1 1 18:50 Household spending Unemployment rate Retail sales % -0.2% TUESDAY 30 France France Italy Italy Germany United Kingdom China China 1:30 2:45 4:00 4:00 8:00 18:50 19:01 20:00 20:00 Real GDP preliminary Personal consumption expenditures Consumer confidence Economic confidence Business climate Consumer confidence final Industrial confidence Services confidence Economic confidence Real GDP preliminary Consumer price index preliminary Industrial production preliminary Consumer confidence PMI manufacturing index PMI non-manufacturing index Q4 Q4 116.9 n/a 1.68 8.9 18.5 116.2-1.5% -13 51.5 55.0 WEDNESDAY 31 Germany France Italy 0:00 0:00 2:00 2:45 4:00 Consumer confidence Housing starts Retail sales Consumer price index preliminary Unemployment rate Consumer price index estimate Unemployment rate 44.9 THURSDAY 1 United Kingdom Italy France Germany United Kingdom 2:00 3:45 3:50 3:55 4:00 4:30 Nationwide house prices PMI manufacturing index PMI manufacturing index final PMI manufacturing index final PMI manufacturing index final PMI manufacturing index 57.3 58.1 61.2 59.6 56.5 FRIDAY 2 United Kingdom Italy 4:30 PMI construction index Producer price index Consumer price index preliminary 52.0 0.2% 1.5% % % % 3.2% % % % 116.6 108.9 1.66 9.1 18.4 116.0-13 51.6 55.0 % % 1.2% 2.6% 3.6% 44.7 % - % - 1.2% 10.9% % 8.7% 2.5% % 0.9% % 11.0% - 4.4% 1.2% 1.4% 8.7% 57.4 58.1 61.2 59.6 56.3 5 2.6% % 0.9% Note: In contrast to the situation in Canada and the United States, disclosure of overseas economic fi gures is much more approximate. The day of publication is therefore shown for information purposes only. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. The times shown are Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5 hours). 7

UNITED STATES Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2009 $B) Consumption (2009 $B) Government spending (2009 $B) Residential investment (2009 $B) Non-residential investment (2009 $B) Business inventory change (2009 $B)1 Exports (2009 $B) Imports (2009 $B) Final domestic demand (2009 $B) GDP deflator (2009 = 100) Labor productivity (2009 = 100) Unit labor cost (2009 = 100) Employment cost index ( 2005 = 100) Current account balance ($B)1 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year 2017 2016 2015 2.6 3.8 11.6 6.8 --6.9 13.9 4.3-0.2 2.5 0.7 6.3 --4.9 4.6 1.5-0.7 2.5 0.1 1.7 4.7 13.6 3.4 3.9 2.5-451.7 1.5 0.8 5.5-33.4-0.3 1.2-434.6 2.9 3.6 1.4 10.2 100.5 5.0 3.3 1.0 2.0-373.8 17,272 12,028 2,921 603.4 2,366 9.2 2,229 2,882 17,891 114.3 108.9 108.4 13-10 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. UNITED STATES Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Leading indicator (2010 = 100) ISM manufacturing index1 * VARIATION (%) LEVEL 107.0 59.3-1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year 58.2 60.2 3.1 56.7 5.7 54.3 ISM non-manufacturing index1 56.0 57.3 59.4 57.2 56.7 Cons. confidence Conference Board (1985 = 100)1 Personal consumption expenditure (2009 $B) Disposable personal income (2009 $B) Consumer credit ($B) Retail sales ($M) 12 12,014 12,834 3,827 495,381 128.6 0.1 0.7 12 1.0 117.3 4.4 113.3 5.3 5.4 393,317 4.6 6.3 * 107.5 77.9 488,114 249,448 1,895 1,192 0.9 77.2 2.9 1,299 2.6 76.1 3.4 4.2 1,159 76.6 4.5 1.5 1,217 3.6 76.0 8.0 11.5 3.2 1,268 1,266 Excluding automobiles ($M) Industrial production (2007 = 100) Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 New machinery orders ($M) New durable good orders ($M) Business inventories ($B) Housing starts (k)1 Building permits (k)1 1,300 1,303 1,225 1,275 New home sales (k)1 * 625.0 689.0 639.0 619.0 548.0 * 5,570 5,780 5,370 5,510 5,510 Commercial surplus ($M)1-50,497-48,914-44,306-47,883-46,373 2 147,380 148.0 611.0 995.0 2,055 4.1 248.0 4.1 0.1 4.2 4.3 1.7 4.7 254.4 0.3 113.5 0.2 0.8 Excluding food and energy 113.7 0.1 0.8 1.5 Producer price (2009 = 100) Export prices (2000 = 100) Import prices (2000 = 100) 114.3 124.5 125.2-0.1-0.1 0.1 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.6 Existing home sales (k) 1 Nonfarm employment (k) Unemployment rate (%)1 Consumer price (1982 1984 = 100) Excluding food and energy Personal cons. expenditure deflator (2009 = 100) 1 Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 8

CANADA Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Household consumption (2007 $M) Government consumption (2007 $M) Residential investment (2007 $M) Non-residential investment (2007 $M) VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year 2016 2015 2014 Current account balance ($M)1 1,860,679 1,071,880 358,066 127,395 171,508 17,065 579,899 594,543 1,847,387 115.2 109.0 114.9-19,346 1.7 4.0-1.4 3.7 10.2-0.2 3.7-4.8 4.0 2.6 3.2 0.8 0.7 1.4 3.3-9.4 978.0 1.0-1.0-0.1-65,372 1.0 1.6 3.8-1 4,711 3.5 0.7 0.3-0.8-0.5-71,526 2.9 0.5 4.8 8,662 5.9 2.0-47,779 Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 Disposable personal income ($M) Corporate net operating surplus (2007 $M) 85.0 1,208,252 269,708 --3.4 - --3.7 14.6 80.2-80.5 4.7-19.8 8 3.3 10.1 Business inventory change (2007 $M)1 Exports (2007 $M) Imports (2007 $M) Final domestic demand (2007 $M) GDP deflator (2007 = 100) Labour productivity (2007 = 100) Unit labour cost (2007 = 100) 1 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. CANADA Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH VARIATION (%) LEVEL -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year 1,750,785 375,257 55,469 218.0 7,657 50,056-0.5 3.4 251.7-7.7 0.2 0.2-0.8 3.5 219.0 2.0 1.2 1.7 0.9 213.3-2.6 3.4 4.5 6.0 205.7 6.5 * 36,998 1.6 2.9 3.3 6.7 * 63,552-2,540 0.7-1,551-2,944-1,081 10.8 1,139 Exports ($M) Imports ($M) 46,206 48,746 3.7 5.8 5.6 4.4-4.6-1.5 8.1 Employment (k)2 18,648 78.6 64.5 39.4 35.2 * * * 5.7 988.3 16,367 130.8 5.9 16.1-6.2 1.2 6.4 6.5 30.8 0.3 6.9 27.1 * * 125.6 129.6-0.5-0.5-0.2-0.2-0.2 1.7 1.2 114.8 105.5 954,241 1.4 5.5 0.3 9.3 1.2-0.1 5.7 14.2 7.4 Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Industrial production (2007 $M) Manufacturing sales ($M) Housing starts (k)1 Building permits ($M) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Wholesale trade sales ($M) Commercial surplus ($M)1 Unemployment rate (%)1 Average weekly earnings ($) Number of salaried employees (k)2 Consumer price (2002 = 100) Excluding food and energy Excluding 8 volatile items Industrial product price (2002 = 100) Raw materials price (2002 = 100) Money supply M1+ ($M) 1 Oct. Oct. * Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 9

UNITED STATES, CANADA, OVERSEAS Major financial indicators PREVIOUS DATA ACTUAL LAST 52 WEEKS IN % (EXPECTED IF INDICATED) 26 19-1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year Higher Average Lower United States Federal funds target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years S&P 500 index (level) DJIA index (level) Gold price (US$/ounce) CRB index (level) WTI oil (US$/barrel) 1.50 1.41 2 8 2.67 2.92 2,855 26,503 1,353 200.28 66.09 1.50 1.42 2.07 4 2.64 2.91 2,810 26,072 1,333 195.50 63.38 1.50 7 8 9 1 4 2,674 24,719 1,303 193.87 66 1.08 1.59 2.04 3 2.94 2,581 23,434 1,270 186.89 53.92 1.06 5 3 9 9 2,472 21,830 1,268 182 49.72 0.75 0.51 1.21 4 8 6 2,295 20,094 1,189 193.43 53.18 1.50 1.45 2 8 2.67 3.19 2,855 26,503 1,359 200.28 66.09 5 1.00 1.45 4 4 8 2,487 22,187 1,269 184.29 51.67 0.75 4 1.64 2.05 2.67 2,279 19,864 1,196 166.50 48 Canada Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years 9 2 2.07 7 5 8 0 2.03 4 8 1.00 1.06 1.69 7 2.04 6 1.00 0.93 1.43 1.66 9 4 0.75 0.73 3 1.64 2.03 5 5 0.81 4 1.78 3 1.21 2 2.07 7 2.53 0.74 0.74 7 1.44 2 8 6 6 0.91 9 6 Spread with the U.S. rate (% points) Overnight target -0.25 Treasury bill 3 months -0.22 Treasury bonds 2 years -0.30 Treasury bonds 5 years -1 Treasury bonds 10 years -0.39 Treasury bonds 30 years -0.57-0.25-0.24-0.27-0 -0-0.54 - -0.31-0.20-0.32-0.37-8 -0.25-0.15-0.16-0.38-4 -0 - -0.33-2 -0.18-0.26-4 -0.25-6 -0-0.80-0.70-3 -0.25 0 0.25 8-7 -0.32-1 -0.27-0.28 - -0.52-0 -0.75-0.55-3 -0.89-0.84-0.87 S&P/TSX index (level) Exchange rate (C$/US$) Exchange rate (C$/ ) 16,227 1.2318 1.5311 16,353 1.2489 1.5263 16,209 79 1.5092 15,954 1.2808 1.4870 15,129 1.2434 1.4612 15,576 153 1.4072 16,413 749 1.5352 15,608 1.2922 1.4737 14,952 1.2110 828 Overseas ECB Refinancing rate Exchange rate (US$/ ) 0 1.2431 0 1.2222 0 998 0 610 0 752 0 1.0699 0 1.2431 0 418 0 1.0507 United Kingdom BoE Base rate Bonds 10 years FTSE index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) 1.44 7,666 1.4178 8 7,731 852 1.23 7,688 515 0.25 9 7,505 129 0.25 1.27 7,368 135 0.25 1.47 7,184 55 1.45 7,779 1.4243 0.31 1.20 7,418 1.2999 0.25 0.87 7,099 1.2154 Germany Bonds 10 years DAX index (level) 3 13,340 13,434 2 12,918 0.39 13,218 8 12,163 6 11,814 3 13,560 0.38 12,569 0.18 11,510 BoJ Main policy rate Nikkei index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) 23,632 108.53 23,808 110.78 22,765 112.69 22,008 113.69 19,960 117 19,467 115.08 24,124 114.95 20,543 116 18,336 107.85 CRB: Commodity Research Bureau; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; ECB: European Central Bank; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Note: Data taken at markets closing, with the exeption of the current day where they were taken at 11:00 a.m. 10