Chile EU Trade 3 134 3 073 3 096 2 940 1 696 1 590 3 265 World Trade China + H. Kong Brazil Mexico (up to Apr) Russia (up to Apr) Chile China + H. Kong Brazil Mexico (up to Apr) Russia (up to Apr) Qty in 1000 Tonnes Japan Mexico (up to Apr) South Korea United States Russia (up to Apr) Australia Japan Mexico (up to Apr) South Korea United States Russia (up to Apr) Australia United States Qty in 1000 Tonnes EU United States China + H. Kong China + H. Kong EU EU Production 245 998 246 571 248 726 255 544 256 942 World Production Special Issues Oct. Dec. Feb Apr June August Oct. Dec. Feb Apr June August Oct. Dec. Feb Apr June August World Quotations Livestock Survey Carcass Classes EU Prices /100 kg carcass weight DG AGRI DASHBOARD: PIGMEAT Last update: 09.08.17 EU Prices Average (S-E) 31 172.9 Evolution since last week - 0.0% Class S 174.9 + 0.1% Class E 169.9-0.1% Evolution since last month - 3.3% - 3.0% - 3.8% Evolution since last year + 5.1% + 5.9% + 3.9% 190 175 160 145 130 115 EU evolution of the EU pig carcase prices ( / 100kg) Latest price ==> 172.95 EUR/100 kg/cw 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 EU evolution of the EU average piglet prices ( /head) Latest price ==> 49.27 EUR/head Piglet 49.3 /head - 2.8% - 10.7% + 12.3% Average (12-16) 2015 2016 2017 Average (12-16) Piglet - 2015 Piglet - 2016 Piglet - 2017 World weekly average Pig prices 2015-2017 in Euro/ 100kg carcase (EU, Brazil, and USA) 172.95 128.20 156.63 143.24 210 190 170 150 1.16 1.14 1.12 EUR = USD 3.8 3.7 3.6 EUR = BRL 1.55 1.50 EUR = CDN 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Change in pig population Livestock survey December 2016 compared to December 2015 1.4% Dispersion of pig carcases on grades (EU average 2016) E 34% 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 EU BR US CAN EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat. As from 1.1.2014 42% class E and 58%S. US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lb (Feedstuffs.com) BR = average of "ValorVista" prices in main producing states (cepea.esalq.usp.br/suino) CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca) 8 MSs = 83% of total production Others 4 011 17% BE 1 061 5% EU Main Producers of Pigmeat (In 1000 tonnes product weight) NL 1 473 6% DE 5 568 24% ES 4 059 17% IT 1 544 7% DK 1 567 7% FR 1 988 9% PL 1 963 8% EU Exports evolution (In 1000 tonnes carcase weight) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-May 16 EU total exports 130 110 90 70 50 Year 2016 Total = 23 232 (+1.2 % over 2015) Jan-May 17 1.10 1.08 1.06 1.04 1.02 1.00 260 000 250 000 240 000 230 000 220 000 210 000 200 000 Period: 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 EU pig slaughter by year (In 1 000 heads) 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EU-28 Exports (Top destinations in 2017/16) PIGMEAT (Tonnes carcase weight) Jan-May Jan-May 16 Jan-May 17 % Chg Extra-EU 1 696 236 1 589 578-6.3% China 778 722 583 250-25.1% Japan 156 876 175 995 + 12.2% Hong Kong 148 944 149 711 + 0.5% South Korea 93 122 122 798 + 31.9% Philippines 97 818 106 379 + 8.8% USA 52 654 64 371 + 22.3% Others 368 099 387 075 + 5.2% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% 7 countries = 86% of total production Others 15 713 14% 1 962 2% -1.0% -1.4% -2.0% -1.6% -2.6% Live swine, domestic species Piglets, less than 20 kg Main Producers of Pigmeat (In 1000 tonnes product weight) Russian Federation 2 974 2% Pigs, from 20 kg to less than 50 kg Breeding sows China 55 390 48% Brazil 3 192 3% Covered Sows Viet Nam 3 331 3% Sows covered for the first time Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to May) United States of America 10 368 9% 2016 (up to May) 2017 (up to May) -1.0% Fattening pigs, from 50 kg to less than 80 kg Year - 2014 Total = 115 558 (+ 2 % over 2013) European Union 22 628 19% 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 + 4% + 2% + 0% - 2% - 4% - 6% S 57% S E U R O P R.Slaughter 2017 / Experts GIP 2017 / 2014 2015 2016 R.Slaughter 2016 GIP 2016 Q1 + 0.3% + 5.0% + 0.3% - 3.3% - 3.2% Q2-1.3% + 3.4% + 2.5% - 1.9% Q3 + 2.3% + 1.3% + 0.5% - 2.9% Q4 + 2.2% + 1.3% - 0.8% - 3.2% EU_28 + 0.9% + 2.7% + 0.6% - 2.8% Main Importers of PIG Products (up to May) 2016 (up to May) 2017 (up to May) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 U 7% R O 2% P 0% 0% Change in EU pigmeat slaughter (2017 forecast based on GIP and experts estimations) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016 Experts 2017f over GIP 2016 Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG AGRI), MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 2017/1185), GTA, FAO
/100 kg carcass weight EU Prices 31 Evolution since last week Evolution since last month Evolution since last year Average (S-E) 172.9-0.0% - 3.3% + 5.1% Class S 174.9 + 0.1% Class E 169.9-0.1% Piglet 49.3 /head - 2.8% - 3.0% - 3.8% - 10.7% + 5.9% + 3.9% + 12.3% Source : MSs (Weekly communications under Reg. 2017/1185)
EU evolution of the EU pig carcase prices ( / 100kg) 190 Latest price ==> 172.95 EUR/100 kg/cw 175 160 145 130 115 Average (12-16) 2015 2016 2017 Source : MSs (Weekly communications under Reg. 2017/1185)
EU evolution of the EU average piglet prices ( /head) 65 Latest price ==> 49.27 EUR/head 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Average (12-16) Piglet - 2015 Piglet - 2016 Piglet - 2017 Source : MSs (Weekly communications under Reg. 2017/1185)
World weekly average Pig prices 2015-2017 in Euro/ 100kg carcase (EU, Brazil, and USA) 172.95 128.20 156.63 143.24 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 EU BR US CAN 70 50 EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat. As from 1.1.2014 42% class E and 58%S. US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lb (Feedstuffs.com) BR = average of "ValorVista" prices in main producing states (cepea.esalq.usp.br/suino) CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca)
Oct. Dec. Feb Apr June August Oct. Dec. Feb Apr June August Oct. Dec. Feb Apr June August EUR = USD EUR = BRL EUR = CDN 1.16 1.14 1.12 1.10 1.08 1.06 1.04 1.02 1.00 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 Source : ECB (European Central Bank)
Change in pig population Livestock survey December 2016 compared to December 2015 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -1.0% -1.4% Live swine, domestic species Piglets, less than 20 kg -2.6% Pigs, from 20 kg to less than 50 kg -2.0% -1.6% Breeding sows Covered Sows 1.4% Sows covered for the first time -1.0% Fattening pigs, from 50 kg to less than 80 kg Source : Eurostat
Dispersion of pig carcases on grades (EU average 2016) E 34% S 57% S E U R O P P 0% O 0% U 7% R 2% Source : MSs
EU Main Producers of Pigmeat (In 1000 tonnes product weight) 8 MSs = 83% of total production Others 4 011 17% BE 1 061 5% NL 1 473 6% DE 5 568 24% ES 4 059 17% IT 1 544 7% DK 1 567 7% PL 1 963 8% FR 1 988 9% Year 2016 Total = 23 232 (+1.2 % over 2015) Source : Eurostat
245 998 246 571 248 726 255 544 256 942 260 000 EU pig slaughter by year (In 1 000 heads) 250 000 240 000 230 000 220 000 210 000 200 000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source : Eurostat
7 countries = 86% of total production Main Producers of Pigmeat (In 1000 tonnes product weight) China 55 390 48% Year - 2014 Total = 115 558 (+ 2 % over 2013) Others 15 713 14% European Union 22 628 19% 1 962 2% Russian Federation 2 974 2% Brazil 3 192 3% Viet Nam 3 331 3% United States of America 10 368 9% Source : FAO
Change in EU pigmeat slaughter (2017 forecast based on GIP and experts estimations) + 4% + 2% + 0% - 2% - 4% - 6% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 2015 2016 Experts 2017f over GIP 2016 2014 2015 2016 R.Slaug ht er 2 0 17 / R.Slaug ht er 2 0 16 Exp ert s GIP 2 0 17 / GIP 2 0 16 Q1 + 0.3% + 5.0% + 0.3% - 3.3% - 3.2% Q2-1.3% + 3.4% + 2.5% - 1.9% Q3 + 2.3% + 1.3% + 0.5% - 2.9% Q4 + 2.2% + 1.3% - 0.8% - 3.2% EU_28 + 0.9% + 2.7% + 0.6% - 2.8% Source : Eurostat
3 134 3 073 3 096 2 940 1 696 1 590 3 265 3 500 EU Exports evolution (In 1000 tonnes carcase weight) 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 Source : Eurostat 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-May 16 EU total exports Jan-May 17
Period: EU-28 Exports (Top destinations in 2017/16) PIGMEAT (Tonnes carcase weight) Jan-May Jan-May 16 Jan-May 17 % Chg Extra-EU 1 696 236 1 589 578-6.3% China 778 722 583 250-25.1% Japan 156 876 175 995 + 12.2% Hong Kong 148 944 149 711 + 0.5% South Korea 93 122 122 798 + 31.9% Philippines 97 818 106 379 + 8.8% USA 52 654 64 371 + 22.3% Others 368 099 387 075 + 5.2% Source : Eurostat & GTA
Chile China + H. Kong Brazil Mexico (up to Apr) Russia (up to Apr) Chile China + H. Kong Brazil Mexico (up to Apr) Russia (up to Apr) Qty in 1000 Tonnes United States EU United States EU Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to May) 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 2016 (up to May) 2017 (up to May) 0 Source : Eurostat & GTA
Japan Mexico (up to Apr) South Korea United States Russia (up to Apr) Australia Japan Mexico (up to Apr) South Korea United States Russia (up to Apr) Australia Qty in 1000 Tonnes China + H. Kong China + H. Kong Main Importers of PIG Products (up to May) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 2016 (up to May) 2017 (up to May) 0 Source : Eurostat & GTA