We re Not All The Same!

We re Not All The Same! Exploring the DIVERSITY in Millennials Jason Dunkel jason.dunkel@environicsanalytics.ca 647-259-2811 @jdunkel_ea

Worldwide Millennials are In need of Some PR Generation Maybe The Curling Generation nagara-zoku the people who are always doing two things at once ken lao zu the generation that eats the old 2

I Swear, We re Not All The Same!!!! 3

Agenda Introduction Demographic Trends Millennials What Makes Them Different? Millennials Thriving vs. Striving 4

Who am I? Started at Environics Analytics in 2008 Spent 4 years in product management and software development Began specializing as consultant in Travel and Tourism in 2012 Jason Dunkel TTRA Canada President, board member since 2013 5

Our Focus Insights Evaluation Action

Demographic Trends 8

Demographic Trends A GROWING POPULATION 9

Population (millions) Population Growth Rate (%) A Growing Population Population and Annual Growth Rate, US Population (millions) Population Growth Rate (%) 400 1.6 350 1.4 300 1.1 1.2 1.2 250 200 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 150 0.6 100 0.4 50 0.2 0 1971-72 1976-77 1981-82 1986-87 1991-92 1996-97 2001-02 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 0.0 Source: World Bank 10

Population (millions) Population Growth Rate (%) A Growing Population Population and Annual Growth Rate, US Population (millions) Population Growth Rate (%) 400 350 2017 1.6 1.4 300 1.1 1.2 Projections 1.2 250 1.0 200 150 100 50 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1971-72 1981-82 1991-92 2001-02 2011-12 2021-22 2031-32 2041-42 0.0 Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates 11

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Demographic Trends INCREASING DIVERSITY 13

Changing Families Households by Type Other Family Loneparent 5% 8% One person 23% Couple with children 31% 1980 Couple without children 30% Other Non- Family 3% Other Family 8% Lone-parent 10% Couple with children 20% 2015 Couple without children 29% One person 27% Other Non- Family 6% Source: Nielsen Pop-Facts 2015 14

Families Have changed 1987 2009 15

Millions Immigration Immigrants as a Percentage of Population, USA 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Immigrants Percent - USA 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 16

Immigration Immigrants by Region, USA (%) 10 9 6 4 3 2 2 8 9-19 1 26 26 28 30 9 0 1 19 2 3 4 5-33 Canada Asia Africa Latin America Oceania Europe % 75 62 1 44 52 53 51 39 1 23 1 16 1 1 12 11 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 Source: World Bank Health Nutrition and Population Statistics Population estimates and projections 17

1972 In 1950s New York a second-generation Sicilian crime lord transforms from reluctant family outsider to mafia boss. 19

2015 On Canada s West Coast (present day), second- and third-generation Indian immigrants compete with rival gangs to demand respect. 20

21 Canada s National Pastime

22 IS Comparing Ourselves to The US

Percentage Foreign Born 13% 20% Source: Nielsen Pop-Facts 2016, Environics Analytics DemoStats 2016 23

Visible Minority Status White 62% Non- White 38% White 75% Non- White 25% Source: Nielsen Pop-Facts 2016, Environics Analytics DemoStats 2016 25

Very Different Ethnic Mix Hispanic 16% Hispanic 1% Black 11% Black 3% Asian 5% Asian 14% Aboriginal 1% Aboriginal 4% Other 6% Other 2% Source: Nielsen Pop-Facts 2016, Environics Analytics DemoStats 2016 26

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Demographic Trends INCOME DISTRIBUTION 28

Average Household INcome $77K USD $95K CAD (70.9K USD) Source: Nielsen Pop-Facts 2016, Environics Analytics DemoStats 2016 29

Population Distribution Smaller Urban 8% Rural Small Towns 6% 6 Largest CBSAs 20% Smaller Urban 11% Rural Small Towns 17% 6 Largest CMAs 47% Other CBSAs (>100K) 66% Other CMAs 26% Source: Nielsen Pop-Facts 2016, Environics Analytics DemoStats 2016 31

Income Distribution Rural Small Smaller Towns Urban 1% 7% 6 Largest CBSAs 24% Rural Small Towns 17% Smaller Urban 12% 6 Largest CMAs 45% Others CBSAs (>100K) 69% Other CMAs 26% Source: Nielsen Pop-Facts 2016, Environics Analytics DemoStats 2016 32

33 I SEE OLD PEOPLE

Demographic Trends AGING POPULATION 34

AGING Population 30% Percent of Total Population, USA 25% 20% 15% Age 0-14 10% Age 65+ 5% 0% 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 Source: World Bank 2017

Aging Population Percent of Total Population, USA 30% 25% 2017 Projections Age 65+ 20% 15% Age 0-14 10% 5% 0% 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 Source: World Bank 2017

Median Age Explains Differences 37.6 Years OLD 41.7 Years OLD Source: CIA World Factbook 2015 37

Median Age 37.6 41.7 27.3 Years OLD Years OLD Years OLD 38 Source: CIA World Factbook 2015

Population (000s) Very Different Demographic Paths Total Population USA Canada Mexico 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year Source: World Bank 2015 39

Annual Growth (%) Very Different Demographic FUTURES Projected Population Growth % 1.0% USA Canada Mexico 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050-0.4% Source: World Bank 2015 40

Fertility Rate Changing Family Structures Historical Fertility Rates USA Canada Mexico 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Source: World Bank 2015 41

Median Age Median Age Past and Future Median Age by Year USA Canada Mexico 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Year Source: World Bank 2015 42

Very Different Generational Classifications 34% 28% 27% 27% 26% 24% 19% 20% 20% 20% 16% 14% 9% 11% 4% Gen We (?) 0-14 Millennials 15-34 GenX 35-49 Boomer 50-69 Greatest Generation 70+ USA Canada Mexico Source: World Bank 2015 43

Millions Most Depressing Slide of The Day Projected Population by Generation, USA 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 Millennials Generation X Boomers Pre-Boomers Source: World Bank 2017 44

Cheer Up, Boomers! 45

Millennials: What Makes Them Different? 46

Millennials have arrived 47

Age Marriage Has Been Trending Median Age at First Marriage 32 30 28 Male Female 26 24 22 20 18 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses, 1890 to 1940, and Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements, 1947 to 2015. 48

Age Marriage Has Been Trending Median Age at First Marriage 32 30 28 Male Female Jason Jessica 26 24 22 20 18 Year DANGER ZONE!!!!! Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses, 1890 to 1940, and Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements, 1947 to 2015. 49

37.1 37.7 38.8 38.6 39.0 39.4 40.5 40.4 41 41.7 42.3 43.3 42.3 41.7 41.3 39.8 38.9 37.9 36.8 36.8 36.2 34.6 34.2 Lower Levels of Home Ownership Homeownership, Under Age of 35, United States % '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 50

FEMALES Continue TO LEAD THE WAY Educational Attainment USA 36% 6% 20% 1% 2% 46% 9% 25% 1% 2% 37% 7% 19% 1% 2% 44% 9% 21% 1% 2% 37% 37% 2% 1% 3% 1% 8% 9% 18% 17% Doctorate Degree Professional Degree > Bachelor's Master's Degree Bachelor's Degree 8% 10% 8% 10% 7% 9% Associate's Degree Male Female Male Female Male Female Millennials Gen X Boomers Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2014

FEMALES Continue TO LEAD THE WAY Percent Female by Occupation USA Boomers (50-69) Millennials (15-34) Optometrists Veterinarians Podiatrists Dentists Photographers Jewelers and precious stone and metal workers Natural sciences managers Environmental scientists and geoscientists Physicians and surgeons Pharmacists Morticians, undertakers, and funeral directors Lawyers Atmospheric and space scientists 6% 21% 33% 12% 16% 33% 31% 35% 20% 26% 40% 18% 40% 27% 26% 46% 47% 45% 50% 49% 68% 62% 60% 63% 64% 77% Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey, 2014 52

FEMALES Continue to lead The Way 53

Millennials are more culturally diverse Race/Ethnicity (%), United States, 2014 3 2 2 6 7 5 13 12 21 18 11 10 Other Asian % Black 57 61 72 Hispanic White Millennials Gen X Boomers Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2014 March Current Population Survey from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) 54

The New Normal 55

More student debt Percentage of under 40 Households Owing Student Debt United States 37 29 21 21 21 22 25 % 16 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source: Pew Research Centre, Young Adults, Student Debt and Economic Wellbeing, 2014 56

Bigger Student Debt $25,000 Median Student Loan Debt (2014) $20,000 19,647 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 5,282 $0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Brookings Institution, Loney and Yanelis,2015, A Crisis in Student Loans? How Changes in the Characteristics of Borrowers and the Institutions They Attend Contributed to Rising Loan Defaults. 57

NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE A MALE MILLENNIAL

Millennials: Thriving Vs. Striving 59

Millennials Thriving Vs. Striving BACKGROUND - GEODEMOGRAPHY 60

Birds of a Feather Flock Together YEEEAAAAAAAHHH!!!! And That s the Goosepel Truth 61

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DEMOGRAPHICS < 35 Years $72,000 DEMOGRAPHICS Middle Aged $82,000 64

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DEMOGRAPHICS DEMOGRAPHICS $175,000 $82,000 66

DEMOGRAPHICS $175,000 67

Let s Take a Closer Look 68

Not All Millennials Are Created Equal THRIVING STRIVING

Thriving Millennials 70

Striving Millennials 71

Socioeconomic status: A major differentiator THRIVING $76K STRIVING Income $52K Finance, Insurance, Professional services, Information, Food Services Occupation Administrative, Food Services, Retail 72 46% with Associates degree or higher Education 31% with Associates degree or higher Source: Nielsen PRIZM Premier, Pop-Facts 2015

Very Different travel Behaviours THRIVING STRIVING 45% Booked a flight for personal/vacation Past 12 Months 30% 62% Booked a stay at a hotel/motel Past 12 Months 50% Source: Nielsen PRIZM Premier, Consumer Profiles 2015 73

Very Different Leisure Behaviours THRIVING STRIVING 7% Skiing/Snowboarding Past 12 Months 2% 23% Hiking/Backpacking Past 12 Months 15% Source: Nielsen PRIZM Premier, Consumer Profiles 2015 74

Very Different travel Behaviours THRIVING Domestic Travel Past 12 Months STRIVING 11% Las Vegas 5% 8% 11% Los Angeles New York City 4% 6% International Travel Past 3 Years 8% Canada 5% 11% Europe 5% 13% Caribbean 9% Source: Nielsen PRIZM Premier, Consumer Profiles 2015 75

STRIVING Millennials: PRIMACY OF THE FAMILY Source: Nielsen PRIZM Premier, American Values Survey

STriving Millennials: Adaptability to Complexity 77 Source: Nielsen PRIZM Premier, American Values Survey

THRIVING Millennials: CULTURE SAMPLING Source: Nielsen PRIZM Premier, American Values Survey

THRIVING Millennials: Effort Towards Health Source: Nielsen PRIZM Premier, American Values Survey

Both millenial groups feel A void in their lives STRIVING AND THRIVING Millennials: Anomie/Aimlessness 80 Source: Nielsen PRIZM Premier, American Values Survey

Me in My Teens: Don t Tell Me What To Do Me in My 20s: Please Tell Me What To Do 81

So, IN SUMMARY Both the US and Canada are changing more diversity, urbanization, different families Millennials are growing up in a world that is different than we ve ever seen before We re not all the same!!! 82

THANK YOU! Jason Dunkel jason.dunkel@environicsanalytics.ca @jdunkel_ea 83