ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) Strong improvement in asset quality

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INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN) Strong improvement in asset quality INDIA FINANCIALS Quarterly Update Top takeaways from Q3FY19 ICICI Bank s reported Profit after tax of Rs 16bn, behind expectations mainly due to higher provisioning as bank increased its PCR by 690bps qoq to 76.3%. NII at Rs 68.8bn was better than our estimate of Rs 67.3bn on higher NIMs and decent credit growth. NIM increased by 7bps QoQ to 3.4% owing to interest received on NPA a/cs (18bps). Slippages declined to Rs 21bn (2Q19: Rs 31.2). This includes Rs 10.7bn from retail and Rs 10.2 bn from corporate (Rs 2.3 bn from NFB to existing NPA) and SME. GNPA ratio improved by 79bps QoQ to 7.75%, while NNPA improved by 107bps to 2.58%. Retail NPA includes agri slippage of Rs2bn. BB and below portfolio declined by Rs 29.7bn to Rs 188.1bn QoQ. This was mainly driven by upgrade to investment grade (Rs 30.3bn). Loan growth at 11.7% (2Q19: 12.8%). Domestic loans grew 14.4% driven by retail/sme at 21.6%/12.7%, corporate book remain flat. Overseas book declined 5.4% yoy. The bank bought portfolio worth Rs68.6bn from NBFCs/HFCs (Housing, auto & SME). Management comments / concall takeaway NIM: Interest collections from NPA added 17 18bps to NIM during the quarter. Overseas margin was up 72bps qoq on higher interest collection on non performing loans hence is likely to remain volatile in this fiscal year. Slippages: Higher slippages from retail loan were on account of Rs 2bn slippage from rural portfolio most likely a result of farm loan waiver. Slippages from this portfolio peaks during June and Dec quarter hence it s likely to be elevated in June 2019. As of Dec 2019 bank had Rs 188bn of Kisan credit card loans outstanding. NBFC/HFCs: As of 31 Dec 2018, NBFC & HFCs constituted 4.6% of total exposure. Bank is open to lending to NBFCs and HFCs and buying retail portfolio. RoE Guidance: Management continue to maintain 15% RoE target by June 2020, Management will take a call on medium term RoE target in coming quarter. Credit Cost Guidance: Management expect normalize credit cost from 1QFY20 NPA sale of Rs 21bn was on account of resolution and entire amount was recovered in cash Outlook and valuation: As ICICIBC enters the NPA recovery phase, factors such as high credit growth, recovery of NPAs, and margin improvement should trigger earnings upgrades. We expect earnings growth of 33%/+229% in FY19/20 translating into RoA of 0.53%/1.54%. At CMP, ICICIBC trades at 1.5x FY21 core ABVPS of Rs 178 (valuing subsidiaries at Rs 95). We maintain buy on inexpensive valuations and a visible turnaround in the NPA cycle with a target of Rs 450, valuing the bank at 2x our FY21 core ABVPS. 30 January 2019 BUY (Maintain) CMP RS 365/ TARGET RS 450 (+23%) COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 6441 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 2234 MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 31.4 52 WK HI/LO (RS) : 383 / 257 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 104.8 PAR VALUE (RS) : 2 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % Dec 18 Sep 18 Jun 18 FII / NRI : 44.4 46.8 48.4 FI / MF : 44.7 42.8 41.0 PUBLIC : 2.4 2.4 2.4 GOVT : 8.5 8.1 8.3 KEY FINANCIALS Rs mn FY19E FY20E FY21E Pre prov ROE (%) 22.2 23.7 24.6 Pre prov ROA (%) 2.8 2.8 2.9 Net Profit 45 149 183 % growth 33.3 228.9 23.0 EPS (Rs) 7.0 23.0 28.3 Core BVPS (Rs) 136 156 178 ROE (%) 4.2 13.0 14.3 P/E (x) 52.0 15.8 12.9 Adj P/BV (x) 1.88 1.65 1.44 CHANGE IN ESTIMATES Revised Est. % Revision Rs bn FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E NII 265.7 313.1 4.2 2.7 PPP 236.9 270.2 7.2 3.9 Core PAT 45.2 148.8 27.0 6.3 EPS (Rs) 7.0 23.0 27.6 6.2 Manish Agarwalla (022 6246 4125) magarwalla@phillipcapital.in Sujal Kumar (022 6246 4114) sukumar@phillipcapital.in (Rs bn) Q3FY19 Q3FY18 yoy % Q2FY19 qoq % vs. expect. % Comments Net interest income 68.8 57.1 20.5 64.2 7.1 2.1 NII growth driven by higher NIM and credit growth NIM % 3.4 3.1 26bps 3.3 10bps 15bps Domestic NIM at 3.72%, International NIM at 0.77% Advances 5643 5054 11.7 5445 3.6 1.2 Credit growth driven by 21%/12% yoy growth in retail/sme advance Corporate advances 1361 1360 0.1 1383 1.6 Domestic flat yoy & overseas 5.4% yoy ( 13% yoy in USD) Retail advances 3332 2739 21.6 3118 6.9 Retail advances comprises of 59%, will continue to be the growth driver Deposit 6068 5174 17.3 5587 8.6 Term deposit grew 20% yoy, while CASA grew 15% yoy CASA 2994 2606 14.9 2836 5.6 CASA % 49.3 50.4 (110bps) 50.8 (150bps) Daily average CASA ratio stood at 46% vs 39.5% in FY15 Core fee 30.6 26.4 16.0 30.0 2.2 0.9 Fee income grew by 16% ; Retail fee constituted 73% of the Total fee Trading gain 4.8 0.7 625.8 2.0 144.4 Operating expenses 46.1 38.1 20.9 43.2 6.6 8.9 Employee exp. Increased 27% yoy, other opex increased 17% yoy Cost to income ratio % 44.9 43.3 155bps 46.1 (125bps) Cost income ratio decreased on higher revenue growth Provision 42.4 35.7 18.9 39.9 6.3 PAT 16.0 16.5 2.7 9.1 76.6 20.8 Net profit, below estimates due to higher provisions Slippage 20.9 43.8 52.3 31.2 32.9 Rs 10.7 bn from Retail RS 10.2 from Corporate /SME GNPA% 7.8 7.8 (7bps) 8.5 (79bps) NNPA% 2.6 4.2 (162bps) 3.7 (107bps) Provision coverage ratio is at 76.3% (+690 bps qoq) Tier 1 Capital % 15.1 15.0 10bps 15.4 (24bps) RWA increased by just 4.6% yoy Page 1 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Standalone result update (Rs mn) Q3FY19 Q3FY18 yoy growth Q2FY19 qoq growth Interest Earned 1,62,804 1,36,654 19.1 1,51,056 7.8 Interest Expended 94,052 79,601 18.2 86,881 8.3 Net interest income 68,753 57,053 20.5 64,176 7.1 Net interest margins 3.40 3.14 0.3 3.30 0.1 Non interest income 38,829 31,669 22.6 31,565 23.0 Total Income 1,07,581 88,721 21.3 95,741 12.4 Total operating expenses 46,117 38,144 20.9 43,244 6.6 Payroll costs 17,340 13,626 27.3 16,614 4.4 Others 28,777 24,518 17.4 26,630 8.1 Pre provision Profit 61,464 50,578 21.5 52,497 17.1 Provisions & Contingencies 42442 35696 18.9 39943 6.3 % Operating income 69.1 70.6 1.5 76.1 7.0 PBT 19,023 14,882 27.8 12,554 51.5 Provision for Taxes 2,974 1,621 283.5 3,465 14.2 % of PBT 15.6 10.9 26.5 27.6 12.0 Net Profit 16,049 16,502 2.7 9,089 76.6 Equity 12,884 12,836 0.4 12,870 0.1 EPS, Rs 2.5 2.6 3.1 1.4 76.4 Advances 56,43,078 50,53,869 11.7 54,44,866 3.6 Deposits 60,67,547 51,74,031 17.3 55,86,689 8.6 Advances / Deposits (%) 82.9 84.8 1.9 0.0 82.9 Gross NPAs 515915 460387 12.1 544890 5.3 Gross NPAs (%) 7.8 7.8 0.07 8.5 0.79 Net NPAs 162520 238103 31.7 220857 26.4 Net NPAs (%) 2.6 4.2 1.6 3.7 1.07 CAR Tier I 15.1 15.0 0.1 15.4 0.2 CAR Tier II 2.0 3.1 1.1 2.5 0.5 CAR Total 17.2 18.1 1.0 17.8 0.7 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Page 2 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Sum of the parts valuation Share holding of ICICI Valuation per share Rs Valuation Criteria Value of Banking Business (1) 355 2x FY21E ABVPS of Rs178 ICICI Securities ltd 79.22% 15 20 times FY20E PAT of Rs6Bn ICICI Prudential life insurance company ltd 54.90% 44 20 times FY20E NBAP of Rs17.5bn+EV of Rs192bn ICICI Lombard General insurance company ltd 55.92% 28 25x FY20E PAT of Rs13bn ICICI AMC 51.00% 17 6% FY20E AUM of Rs3.7tln Housing finance business 100.00% 4 1.5x FY20E ABV of Rs17Bn Overseas banking subsidiaries 4 1x FY20E ABV of Rs28bn Value of subsidiary (2) 112 Less: Holding company discount @ 15% 17 Total (1) + (2) 451 Source: PhillipCapital India Research Stressed asset pool (Rs bn) 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 Watch list 275 190 204 196 191 47 44 33 Standard restructured 64 43 24 20 18 16 14 14 4 SDR 6 9 15 10 4 0 0 0 0 Mgt change (outside SDR) 0 0 0 17 6 2 2 0 0 5:25 9 9 2 2 2 14 13 13 20 S4A 0 3 4 3 6 6 6 6 6 Non funded exposure to stress loan 16 19 21 21 22 49 48 47 51 Borrower with o/s > Rs1bn* na na na na na na 54 46 57 Borrower with o/s < Rs1bn* na na na na na na 67 59 51 Total 370 274 270 268 249 133 250 218 188 % of Gross customer asset 7.3 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.4 2.3 4.3 3.7 3.0 *erstwhile watch list included Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research. Page 3 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs bn FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Interest on Loans 409 476 557 650 Interest on Investments 116 127 141 156 Others 25 26 27 28 Total Interest Earned 550 628 724 833 Total Interest Expended 319 363 411 470 Net Interest Income 230 266 313 364 Total non interest income 174 147 155 172 Total Income 404 413 468 536 Personnel Expenses 59 67 75 83 Other Expenses 98 109 123 139 Total Op expenses 157 176 198 222 Net Inc (Loss) before prov 247 237 270 314 Provision & contingencies 177 177 66 63 Net Inc (Loss) before tax 74 60 204 251 Provision for Income Tax 7 15 55 68 Net Profit 68 45 149 183 Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs bn FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Assets Cash & Bal with RBI 842 900 964 1,032 Loans, Adv & Int accrued 5,124 5,841 6,717 7,789 Investments 2,093 2,312 2,558 2,832 Fixed Assets (Net) 79 83 87 91 Other assets 654 648 710 734 Total Assets 8,792 9,785 11,036 12,479 Liabilities Share capital 13 13 13 13 Reserves and Surplus 1,039 1,069 1,186 1,338 Preference capital 4 4 4 4 Hybrid Capital 50 53 54 60 Debt 333 367 403 444 Borrowing 1,442 1,586 1,744 1,919 Total Deposits 5,642 6,412 7,334 8,389 Other liab incld prov 270 283 298 313 Total Liabilities 8,792 9,785 11,036 12,479 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Valuation Ratios FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Earnings and Valuation Ratios Pre provision Operating RoAE (%) 24.1 22.2 23.7 24.6 RoAE (%) 6.6 4.2 13.0 14.3 Pre provision Operating ROA (%) 3.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 RoAB (%) 0.9 0.5 1.5 1.7 EPS (Rs.) 10.5 7.0 23.0 28.3 Dividend per share (Rs.) 1.5 2.0 4.0 4.0 Book Value (Rs.) 164 168 186 209 Core Adj BV (Rs.) 117 136 156 178 Revenue Analysis Interest income on IBA (%) 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.6 Interest cost on IBL (%) 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 NIM on IBA / AWF (%) 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Core fee Inc / AWF (%) 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Portfolio gains / Total Inc (%) 16.7 3.8 1.7 1.5 Op.Exp / TI (%) 45.3 44.2 43.0 42.1 Op.Exp / AWF (%) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 Employee exps / Op exps (%) 37.7 37.8 37.7 37.6 Tax / Pre tax earnings (%) 8.8 25.0 27.0 27.0 Asset Quality GNPAs / Gr Adv (%) 8.9 7.3 6.5 5.9 NNPAs / Net Adv (%) 4.8 2.3 1.8 1.7 Growth Ratio Loans (%) 10.4 14.0 15.0 16.0 Investments (%) 25.1 10.5 10.6 10.7 Deposits (%) 14.4 13.7 14.4 14.4 Networth (%) 5.2 2.8 10.9 12.6 Net Int Income (%) 5.9 15.4 17.9 16.1 Non fund based income (%) 6.8 13.8 11.2 11.8 Non Int Exp (%) 6.4 12.1 12.4 12.2 Profit Before Tax (%) (34.1) (18.9) 237.9 23.0 Net profit (%) (30.8) (33.3) 228.9 23.0 Asset / Liability Profile Avg CASA/ Deposits (%) 50.8 51.3 51.2 51.1 Avg Adv / Avg Dep (%) 83.2 82.3 83.8 85.5 Avg Invst / Avg Dep (%) 35.6 36.6 35.4 34.3 Incr Adv / Deposits (%) 67.9 93.1 95.1 101.5 Avg Cash / Avg Dep (%) 15.1 14.5 13.6 12.7 Capital Adequacy Ratio: 18.4 17.5 17.3 17.4 Tier I (%) 15.9 15.0 14.9 14.9 CET1 (%) 14.4 13.6 13.5 13.6 NNPAs to Equity (%) 26.4 14.1 11.5 10.9 Page 4 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History 400 350 B (TP 405) B (TP 400) 300 B (TP 340) B (TP 336)B (TP 343) B (TP 400) B (TP 400) B (TP 364) B (TP 364) 250 N (TP 265) N (TP 265) 200 150 100 J 16 M 16M 16 J 16 A 16 S 16 N 16 D 16 J 17 M 17 B (TP 340) J 17 A 17 S 17 N 17 D 17 J 18 M 18M 18 J 18 J 18 S 18 N 18 D 18 Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. Rating Criteria Definition BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price NEUTRAL 15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than 15% SELL <= 15% Target price is less than or equal to 15%. Page 5 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

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