KDDL (KDDL IN) In expansion mode

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH KDDL (KDDL IN) In expansion mode INDIA MIDCAP Quarterly Update Top takeaways from 2QFY19 Results in line, recovery in manufacturing & strong growth in precision engineering. Margin improvement with recovery in sales in Retail from low base. Store expansion in retail with strong outlook and stabilization in policy framework. Key highlights: Consolidated revenue increased by 55% yoy to Rs 1.56bn, in line with estimates of Rs 1.5bn. Ethos (retail) business reported recovery of 84% yoy to Rs 1.1bn. The billing growth, which is more important due to change in tax structure, was 87% yoy at Rs 1.3bn. Manufacturing revenue increased by 11% yoy to Rs 441mn. Consolidated EBITDA increased by 91% yoy to Rs 134mn, in line with estimates of Rs 132mn. Ethos profitability improved significantly at the EBITDA level at Rs 52mn vs. loss of Rs 14mn yoy. EBITDA margins in Ethos improved to 4.7% in 2QFY19 from loss of 2.6% in 2QFY17 (adjusted for one off the normalised EBITDA was Rs 68mn with margin of 6.1% in 2QFY19). EBITDA in manufacturing increased by 8% yoy to Rs 85mn with margins decline of 70bps yoy to 19.2% in 2QFY18. Consolidated profit was at Rs 53mn vs. estimates of Rs 51mn. Ethos profits improved to Rs 14mn from loss of Rs 20mn in 2QFY18 while manufacturing profits grew 31% yoy to Rs 45mn. Conference call takeaways It added three stores (including flagship store in Delhi) in 1HFY19 and plans to add four more in 2HFY19. It will continue with expansion in retail with additional 25 stores over next 2 3 and expects to achieve revenue CAGR of 18 20%. The management is planning to unlock the value of retail business with separate listing of Ethos. Fund raising for aggressive expansion in retail business. Raised Rs 200mn at price of Rs 480 per share at KDDL level and Rs 240mn at subsidiary Ethos via preferential issue at pre money valuation of Rs 4.8bn. KDDL holding in Ethos reduced to 72.2%. It has rationalised inventory of higher value watches (above Rs 0.5mn), performed well in the industry, and increased market share. Focusing on exclusive brands to improve its margins and expects revenue from exclusive brands to contribute 25% to Ethos revenue over the next 2 years, from 15% presently. Ethos online sales went up 53% yoy to Rs 351mn in 2QFY19, contributing 30.4% of revenue. Ethos website visitors increased 10% to 3.4mn in 2QFY19. Around 45% sales were to repeat customers at Rs 457mn in 2QFY19. Front end expenses (rent and manpower) as percentage of sales declined to 10.5% in 2QFY19 from 11.6% in 2QFY18. Precision engineering s growth was 25% yoy to Rs 207mn in 1HFY19 with increase in capacity. Expects precision engineering revenue CAGR at 30 40% going ahead. Recovery in global watch market is positive and watch component revenue grew by 17% in 1HFY19. Outlook and valuation: We believe the change in strategy in retail (for sustainable growth and cost reduction) is paying off we see revenue growth of 11%/17% in FY19/20. Earnings CAGR in manufacturing will be 21% over FY18 20 to Rs 228mn, with capacity addition and backward integration. We maintain valuation at 25x FY20 with target of Rs 525 (Unchanged). We are changing rating from Neutral to BUY considering fall in stock price. 6 November 2018 BUY (Upgrade) CMP RS 442 TARGET RS 525 (18%) COMPANY DATA O/S SHARES (MN) : 11 MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 4 MARKET CAP (USDMN) : 58 52 WK HI/LO (RS) : 621 / 229 LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 0.1 PAR VALUE (RS) : 10 SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, % Sep 18 Jun 18 Mar 18 PROMOTERS : 46.7 28.2 45.4 FII / NRI : 25.0 32.0 16.7 FI / MF : 0.0 0.0 0.0 NON PRO : 8.1 12.8 8.6 PUBLIC & OTHERS : 20.2 26.9 29.3 KEY FINANCIALS Rs mn FY18 FY19E FY20E Net Sales 5,018 5,709 6,741 EBIDTA 442 527 675 Net Profit 172 166 228 EPS, Rs 15.9 15.3 21.1 PER, x 27.9 28.9 21.0 EV/EBIDTA, x 14.2 12.4 10.0 PBV,x 4.7 4.3 3.9 ROE, % 13.0 11.7 14.6 Debt/Equity (%) 119.3 121.5 129.5 CHANGE IN ESTIMATES Revised Est. % Revision Rs mn FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E Revenue 5,709 6,741 0% 0% EBITDA 527 675 0% 0% Core PAT 166 228 0% 0% EPS (Rs) 15.3 21.1 0% 0% Vikram Suryavanshi (022 6246 4111) vsuryavanshi@phillipcapital.in (Rs mn) 2QFY19 2QFY18 yoy 1QFY19 qoq vs. expectations % Comments Revenue 1565 1007 55.4 1453 7.7 4.8 Ethos sales impact of high base, manufacturing revenue up 11% Raw material (%) of sales 60.0% 55.1% 58.4% 2.7 100 bps Revenue mix change EBITDA 134 70 91.0 125 7.6 1.3 Strong margin improvement in retail EBITDA margins (%) 8.6% 7.0% 160 bps 8.6% 2 bps (20) bps Interest 37 33 13.5 37 0.5 2.9 Adjusted PAT 53 15 258.4 46 15.1 3.9 Inline 1 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Consolidated quarterly financial performance Rs mn 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 Net Sales 1007 1422 1381 1453 1565 Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0 Total revenue 1007 1422 1381 1453 1565 Cost of material consumed 167 91 103 105.7 124 Purchase of stocks 635 895 754 821.1 865 Change in inventory 246 110.3 38 78 50 Total material 556 876 819 849 939 % of Sales 55.1% 61.6% 59.3% 58.4% 60.0% Employee cost 160 163 182 200 206 Other expenses 222 205 249 279.1 286 Total Expenses 937 1243 1250 1328 1431 EBITDA 70 179 131 125 134 Margins (%) 7.0% 12.6% 9.5% 8.6% 8.6% Other income 6.5 26.9 12.6 19.4 16 Depreciation 29.5 30 32.4 32.2 32.3 EBIT 47 175 112 112 118 Interest 33 28 28 37 37 PBT 15 147 84 75 81 Tax 6 42 17 25 26 Tax rate 37.7% 28.2% 20.0% 33.3% 32.3% PAT 9 106 67 50 55 Minority interest 0.1 13.7 5 4 0 Adjusted profit 5.7 92 62 46 1 Reported PAT 15 90 62 46 53 Equity (mn) 11 11 11 11 11 EPS (Rs) 1.4 8.5 5.7 4.3 4.9 Standalone quarterly financial performance Rs mn 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 Net Sales 396 354 385 434 441 Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0 Total revenue 396 354 385 434 441 yoy growth 25.2 20.0 26.4 33.8 11.3 Cost of material consumed 94.1 95 94.7 108 118.9 Change in inventory 13.1 16 7.9 0 0 Total material 107 79 87 108 10.9 RM % of revenue 27.1% 22.5% 22.6% 25.0% 108 Employee cost 105 101 116 128 126 Other expenses 106 105 114 125 123 Total Expenses 317 286 317 360 356 EBITDA 79 67 68 73 85 Margins (%) 19.9% 19.0% 17.7% 16.9% 19.2% Other income 5.2 20 12 14.8 13 Depreciation 18.1 18.8 18.3 19 19.4 EBIT 66 69 62 69 78 Interest 13 12 9.8 14.1 15 PBT 53 57 52 55 63 Tax 18.2 14.6 12.6 16.6 18.2 Adjusted PAT 34 42 39 38 45 Reported PAT 34 42 39 38 45 Equity (mn) 10.8 10.8 10.8 11.2 11.2 EPS (Rs) 3.2 3.9 3.6 3.4 4.0 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research 2 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Financials Income Statement Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e Net sales 4,554 5,018 5,709 6,741 Growth, % 1 10 14 18 Total income 4,554 5,018 5,709 6,741 Raw material expenses 2,830 3,019 3,375 3,971 Employee expenses 605 666 761 893 Other Operating expenses 849 890 1,047 1,202 EBITDA (Core) 269 442 527 675 Growth, % (8.9) 64.4 19.2 28.1 Margin, % 5.9 8.8 9.2 10.0 Depreciation 117 121 130 144 EBIT 152 321 397 532 Growth, % (16.8) 110.8 23.8 33.9 Margin, % 3.3 6.4 7.0 7.9 Interest paid 144 120 164 202 Other Non Operating Income 32 52 35 45 Non recurring Items 0 0 0 0 Pre tax profit 41 253 268 374 Tax provided 40 71 91 127 Profit after tax 1 182 177 247 Others (Minorities, Associates) 6 10 11 19 Net Profit 6 172 166 228 Growth, % (87.7) 2,546.2 (3.7) 38.0 Net Profit (adjusted) 6 172 166 228 Unadj. shares (m) 11 11 11 11 Wtd avg shares (m) 11 11 11 11 Balance Sheet Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e Cash & bank 211 180 141 226 Debtors 292 326 360 425 Inventory 1,880 2,012 2,268 2,678 Loans & advances 339 151 163 176 Other current assets 5 425 459 496 Total current assets 2,726 3,094 3,391 4,000 Investments 8 5 5 5 Gross fixed assets 1,826 2,005 2,187 2,369 Less: Depreciation 1,036 1,157 1,287 1,431 Add: Capital WIP 48 242 242 242 Net fixed assets 838 1,090 1,142 1,180 Total assets 3,572 4,188 4,538 5,186 Current liabilities 938 988 1,075 1,257 Provisions 59 42 45 49 Total current liabilities 997 1,029 1,120 1,306 Non current liabilities 1,211 1,542 1,692 1,992 Total liabilities 2,209 2,571 2,812 3,298 Paid up capital 109 110 110 110 Reserves & surplus 901 1,210 1,307 1,450 Shareholders equity 1,363 1,617 1,726 1,887 Total equity & liabilities 3,572 4,188 4,538 5,186 Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Estimates Cash Flow Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e Pre tax profit 41 253 268 374 Depreciation 117 121 130 144 Chg in working capital 99 366 245 339 Total tax paid 28 145 91 127 Cash flow from operating activities 30 138 62 52 Capital expenditure 140 369 182 182 Cash flow from investing activities 140 366 182 182 Free cash flow 110 504 120 130 Equity raised/(repaid) 262 230 30 30 Debt raised/(repaid) 13 405 150 300 Dividend (incl. tax) 20 42 45 62 Cash flow from financing activities 250 527 135 268 Net chg in cash 141 23 15 138 Valuation Ratios FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e Per Share data EPS (INR) 0.6 15.9 15.3 21.1 Growth, % (87.7) 2,546.2 (3.7) 38.0 Book NAV/share (INR) 60.7 94.4 102.3 113.9 FDEPS (INR) 0.6 15.9 15.3 21.1 CEPS (INR) 11.4 27.1 27.3 34.3 CFPS (INR) (0.2) (17.5) 2.5 0.6 DPS (INR) 1.5 3.2 3.4 4.7 Return ratios Return on assets (%) 2.6 6.6 6.3 7.6 Return on equity (%) 0.6 13.0 11.7 14.6 Return on capital employed (%) 3.6 8.8 8.3 10.0 Turnover ratios Asset turnover (x) 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 Sales/Total assets (x) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 Sales/Net FA (x) 5.5 5.2 5.1 5.8 Working capital/sales (x) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 Fixed capital/sales (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 Liquidity ratios Current ratio (x) 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2 Quick ratio (x) 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 Interest cover (x) 1.1 2.7 2.4 2.6 Dividend cover (x) 0.4 4.9 4.5 4.5 Total debt/equity (%) 116 119 121.6 129.7 Net debt/equity (%) 95 106 111.7 115.2 Valuation PER (x) 857.2 32.4 33.6 24.4 PEG (x) y o y growth (9.8) 0.0 (9.1) 0.6 Price/Book (x) 8.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 Yield (%) 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 EV/Net sales (x) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 24.5 16.0 13.9 11.2 EV/EBIT (x) 43.2 22.0 18.5 14.2 3 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History 650 600 550 500 N (TP 525) N (TP 525) 450 400 350 300 B (TP 480) B (TP 395) N (TP 395) 250 200 B (TP 400) B (TP 286) B (TP 286) B (TP 265) B (TP 265) B (TP 250) B (TP 250) 150 S 15 N 15D 15 F 16M 16M 16 J 16 A 16 S 16 N 16D 16 J 17 M 17M 17 J 17 J 17 S 17 O 17D 17 J 18 M 18A 18M 18 J 18 A 18O 18 Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. Rating Criteria Definition BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price NEUTRAL 15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than 15% SELL <= 15% Target price is less than or equal to 15%. 4 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

Disclosures and Disclaimers PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has three independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities, Institutional Equity Derivatives, and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by Institutional Equities Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may, may not match, or may be contrary at times with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the other equity research groups of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. This report is issued by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd., which is regulated by the SEBI. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. is a subsidiary of Phillip (Mauritius) Pvt. Ltd. References to "PCIPL" in this report shall mean PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd unless otherwise stated. This report is prepared and distributed by PCIPL for information purposes only, and neither the information contained herein, nor any opinion expressed should be construed or deemed to be construed as solicitation or as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any security, investment, or derivatives. The information and opinions contained in the report were considered by PCIPL to be valid when published. The report also contains information provided to PCIPL by third parties. The source of such information will usually be disclosed in the report. Whilst PCIPL has taken all reasonable steps to ensure that this information is correct, PCIPL does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at his or her own risk and PCIPL does not accept any liability as a result. Securities and Derivatives markets may be subject to rapid and unexpected price movements and past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. This report does not regard the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors must undertake independent analysis with their own legal, tax, and financial advisors and reach their own conclusions regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realised. Under no circumstances can it be used or considered as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned within it. The information contained in the research reports may have been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources, which PCIL believe is reliable. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. or any of its group/associate/affiliate companies do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. Important: These disclosures and disclaimers must be read in conjunction with the research report of which it forms part. Receipt and use of the research report is subject to all aspects of these disclosures and disclaimers. Additional information about the issuers and securities discussed in this research report is available on request. Certifications: The research analyst(s) who prepared this research report hereby certifies that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal views about all of the subject issuers and/or securities, that the analyst(s) have no known conflict of interest and no part of the research analyst s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views or recommendations contained in this research report. Additional Disclosures of Interest: Unless specifically mentioned in Point No. 9 below: 1. The Research Analyst(s), PCIL, or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst does not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered in this report. 2. The Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively do not hold more than 1% of the securities of the company (ies)covered in this report as of the end of the month immediately preceding the distribution of the research report. 3. The Research Analyst, his/her associate, his/her relative, and PCIL, do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report. 4. The Research Analyst, PCIL, and its associates have not received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in this report, in the past twelve months. 5. The Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates have not managed or co managed in the previous twelve months, a private or public offering of securities for the company (ies) covered in this report. 6. PCIL or its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the company(ies) covered in this report or from any third party, in connection with the research report. 7. The Research Analyst has not served as an Officer, Director, or employee of the company (ies) covered in the Research report. 8. The Research Analyst and PCIL has not been engaged in market making activity for the company(ies) covered in the Research report. 9. Details of PCIL, Research Analyst and its associates pertaining to the companies covered in the Research report: Sr. no. Particulars Yes/No 1 Whether compensation has been received from the company(ies) covered in the Research report in the past 12 months for No investment banking transaction by PCIL 2 Whether Research Analyst, PCIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively hold more than 1% of No the company(ies) covered in the Research report 3 Whether compensation has been received by PCIL or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the Research report No 4 PCIL or its affiliates have managed or co managed in the previous twelve months a private or public offering of securities for the No company(ies) covered in the Research report 5 Research Analyst, his associate, PCIL or its associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in the Research report, in the last twelve months No Independence: PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has not had an investment banking relationship with, and has not received any compensation for investment banking services from, the subject issuers in the past twelve (12) months, and PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd does not anticipate receiving or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject issuers in the next three (3) months. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd is not a market maker in the securities mentioned in this research report, although it, or its affiliates/employees, may have positions in, purchase or sell, or be materially interested in any of the securities covered in the report. Suitability and Risks: This research report is for informational purposes only and is not tailored to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular requirements of any individual recipient hereof. Certain securities may give rise to substantial risks and may not be suitable for certain investors. Each investor must make its own determination as to the appropriateness of any securities referred to in this research report based upon the legal, tax and accounting considerations applicable to such investor and its own investment objectives or strategy, its financial situation and its investing experience. The 5 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH

value of any security may be positively or adversely affected by changes in foreign exchange or interest rates, as well as by other financial, economic, or political factors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results. Sources, Completeness and Accuracy: The material herein is based upon information obtained from sources that PCIPL and the research analyst believe to be reliable, but neither PCIPL nor the research analyst represents or guarantees that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing on this material, and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, PCIPL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall PCIL, any of its affiliates/employees or any third party involved in, or related to computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind including but not limited to any direct or consequential loss or damage, however arising, from the use of this document. Copyright: The copyright in this research report belongs exclusively to PCIPL. All rights are reserved. Any unauthorised use or disclosure is prohibited. No reprinting or reproduction, in whole or in part, is permitted without the PCIPL s prior consent, except that a recipient may reprint it for internal circulation only and only if it is reprinted in its entirety. Caution: Risk of loss in trading/investment can be substantial and even more than the amount / margin given by you. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks, you are requested to read all the related documents carefully before investing. You should carefully consider whether trading/investment is appropriate for you in light of your experience, objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PhillipCapital and any of its employees, directors, associates, group entities, or affiliates shall not be liable for losses, if any, incurred by you. You are further cautioned that trading/investments in financial markets are subject to market risks and are advised to seek independent third party trading/investment advice outside PhillipCapital/group/associates/affiliates/directors/employees before and during your trading/investment. There is no guarantee/assurance as to returns or profits or capital protection or appreciation. PhillipCapital and any of its employees, directors, associates, and/or employees, directors, associates of PhillipCapital s group entities or affiliates is not inducing you for trading/investing in the financial market(s). Trading/Investment decision is your sole responsibility. You must also read the Risk Disclosure Document and Do s and Don ts before investing. Kindly note that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. For Detailed Disclaimer: Please visit our website www.phillipcapital.in For U.S. persons only: This research report is a product of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd., which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account. This report is intended for distribution by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a 6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated, and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not a Major Institutional Investor. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a 6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd. has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker dealer, Decker & Co, LLC. Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Decker & Co, LLC or another U.S. registered broker dealer. If Distribution is to Australian Investors This report is produced by PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd and is being distributed in Australia by Phillip Capital Limited (Australian Financial Services Licence No. 246827). This report contains general securities advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, situation and needs. Please read the Disclosures and Disclaimers set out above. By receiving or reading this report, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out above. Any failure to comply with these terms and limitations may constitute a violation of law. This report has been provided to you for personal use only and shall not be reproduced, distributed or published by you in whole or in part, for any purpose. If you have received this report by mistake, please delete or destroy it, and notify the sender immediately. PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Registered office: No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400013 6 PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH