JANUARY 27, 2017 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Another disappointing quarter for the U.S. economy HIGHLIGHTS United States: Another quarter of modest real GDP growth wraps up a disappointing year. United States: Existing home sales edged down in December, while new home sales pulled back more sharply. Canada: Weak growth by wholesale trade. A LOOK AHEAD United States: The manufacturing ISM is forecast to rise again in January. U.S. household confidence could pause after rising sharply for two months. Following December s rate increase, a status quo is anticipated for the Federal Reserve. United States: Job creation could be faster than in December, but keep an eye on the revisions. Canada: Real GDP by industry should start to rise again in November. FINANCIAL MARKETS The Dow Jones index manages to cross 20,000 points. Canadian long-term yields jump in response to the green light given to the Keystone XL project. The Canadian dollar goes back above US$0.76. CONTENTS Key statistics of the week... 2 United States, Canada Financial markets... 3 A look ahead... 4 United States, Canada, Overseas Economic indicators of the week... 6 Tables Economic indicators... 8 Major financial indicators...10 François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Mathieu D Anjou, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Jimmy Jean, Senior Economist Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist Desjardins, Economic Studies: 514 281 2336 or 1 866 866 7000, ext. 5552336 desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an oer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the oicial position of Desjardins Group. Copyright 2017, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.
Key statistics of the week UNITED STATES Real GDP rose an annualized 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the advance estimate of national accounts, slowing from last summer s 3.5% gain. Final domestic demand increased 2.5%. Business investment rose 4.2%. Inventory movement went from US$7.1B to US$48.7B, making a 1.00 percentage point contribution to real GDP growth. Foreign trade made a negative contribution to growth, taking a 1.70 point bite. Real exports declined 4.3%, while imports jumped 8.3%. Government expenditures increased by just 1.2% last fall. For 2016 as a whole, real GDP grew 1.6%, coming in below 2015 s 2.6% growth. Existing home sales fell 2.8% in December, after rising 1.4% in November. They are back at an annualized 5,490,000 units, where they were in September. The decline comes from both condo resales (-10.3%) and sales of single-family homes (-1.8%). Wholesale trade only edged up 0.2% in November, with the drop in automobiles and parts (-5.8%) osetting the increases in most other sectors. Excluding automotive products, sales are up 1.6% for the month. In real terms, sales fell 0.1% while inventories were essentially flat. According to the business survey, the number of employees rose 0.2% in November, with 25,300 jobs created. In comparison, the household survey showed a gain of 41,300 jobs for the month once the self-employed were excluded. The annual change in average weekly earnings remains at a very low 0.8%. In real terms, annual growth by earnings is in negative territory (-0.4%), attesting to some erosion in employees buying power. Benoit P. Durocher, Senior economist Sales of single-family homes tumbled 10.4% in December after gaining 4.7% in November. The biggest drop since March 2015 takes annualized sales to 536,000, their lowest point since February 2016. New orders were expected to rebound following November s 4.8% tumble. Instead, they declined further, this time by 0.4%. As expected, civil aviation and the auto sector made positive contributions, but these were completely oset by a 63.9% tumble by military aviation orders. Excluding transportation, an increase of 0.5% was posted following November s 1.0% advance. New capital goods orders excluding defence and aviation rose 0.8%, a third straight increase. December s leading indicator was up 0.5% on the heels of November s 0.1% gain. This is the strongest monthly gain since April. The main contributions came from the interest rate spread, stock market, improved consumer confidence and the rise by the ISM index. Employees buying power continues to worsen Francis Généreux, Senior economist Annual variation in % 3 2 1 0-1 -2 Real average weekly earnings -3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sources: Statistics Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies 2
Financial markets Donald Trump goes from tweets to presidential orders After casting around with no clear direction in the first three weeks of the year, stock markets shot up this week. This finally allowed the Dow Jones index to cross the psychological 20,000 point mark, after a failed attempt last December 6. For its part, the S&P 500 index closed in on 2,300 points. The string of Donald Trump s executive orders at the start of the week sent optimism up again. Although it is subject to as yet unspecified conditions, the green light for the Keystone XL pipeline was favourable to energy sector equities. Materials led the way, however, especially stocks associated with the construction sector. The S&P/TSX also set a new record, hitting 15,674 points on Thursday, helped by Keystone XL and a slight increase in the price of oil. The fact that the gains were fairly widespread suggests, however, that they were mainly influenced by the general optimism. Volatility persisted in the bond market. The U.S. 10 year yield stayed within a fairly wide band of 2.38% to 2.56%. It was just below 2.50% on Friday morning. On Monday, yields went down in response to the United States oicial withdrawal from the Trans Pacific Partnership and Donald Trump s threats regarding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The Keystone XL announcement led yields to rebound the very next day. However, this trend halted on Thursday against the backdrop of rising tensions between the United States and Mexico. Canadian short-term yields essentially stayed with the trend for U.S. yields, but the 10 year and 30 year yields tended to rise more quickly, suggesting some degree of optimism about the longer-term outlook for Canadian growth after the Keystone XL announcement. The U.S. dollar capitalized on the upswing in bond yields, allowing it to wipe out some of its previous losses. The Canadian dollar gained nearly a cent on Tuesday after the Keystone XL announcement. The pound was also busy early in the week. It went back to US$1.26, helped by the greater clarity over what comes next for Brexit and economic numbers that are still beating expectations. The euro was fairly stable from Monday to Wednesday. It lost over half a cent on Thursday and was trading at around US$1.07 at the time of writing. GRAPH 1 Stock markets Index 2,310 2,295 2,280 2,265 2,250 15,700 15,600 15,500 15,400 15,300 2,235 15,200 15/12/2016 23/12/2016 02/01/2017 10/01/2017 18/01/2017 26/01/2017 S&P 500 (left) Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies GRAPH 2 Bond markets -0.65-0.70-0.75 10-year yield S&P/TSX (right) Index In % points In % -0.80 1.5 2016/12/15 2016/12/23 2017/01/02 2017/01/10 2017/01/18 2017/01/26 Spread (left) United States (right) Canada (right) Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies GRAPH 3 Currency markets US$/C$ 0.77 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 US$/ 1.08 Jimmy Jean, CFA, Senior economist Hendrix Vachon, Senior economist 0.76 0.75 0.74 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.04 0.73 1.03 15/12/2016 23/12/2016 02/01/2017 10/01/2017 18/01/2017 26/01/2017 Canadian dollar (left) Euro (right) Sources: Datastream and Desjardins, Economic Studies 3
A look ahead TUESDAY January 31-9:00 November y/y Consensus 5.00% Desjardins 4.90% October 5.10% TUESDAY January 31-10:00 January Consensus 112.8 Desjardins 113.0 December 113.7 WEDNESDAY February 1-10:00 January Consensus 55.0 Desjardins 55.2 December 54.5 WEDNESDAY February 1-14:00 February Consensus 0.75% Desjardins 0.75% December 14 0.75% FRIDAY February 3-8:30 January Consensus 175,000 Desjardins 165,000 December 156,000 FRIDAY February 3-10:00 January Consensus 57.0 Desjardins 56.5 December 56.6 MONDAY January 30-8:30 November m/m Consensus 0.3% Desjardins 0.3% October -0.3% UNITED STATES S&P/Case-Shiller index of existing home prices (November) In October, home prices posted their strongest growth since March, with a monthly gain of 0.6%. We expect a similar increase in November which will slow the S&P/Case-Shiller s annual change from 5.1% to 4.9%. Conference Board consumer confidence index (January) Consumer confidence has been trending up since the November 8 election. The Conference Board index jumped 8.6 points in November, then gained another 4.3 points in December, going to its highest point since August 2001. After growth like this, we now expect the index to pause in January, as the University of Michigan confidence index did, going from 98.2 to 98.1. The stock market has continued to advance since the start of the year, gaining about 2.5% but, on the other hand, gas prices have gone up somewhat since last month. We expect the Conference Board index edge back to 113.0. ISM manufacturing index (January) The manufacturing ISM has been on a solidly positive trend since the end of last summer. In August, it was still below the 50 mark. Four straight monthly increases later, it hit 54.5 in December. We expect another advance for January, as most regional manufacturing indexes are suggesting. We expect the ISM manufacturing index to go to 55.2. Federal Reserve meeting (February) Federal Reserve (Fed) leaders finally moved on a second key rate increase in this cycle at their December meeting. Following that decision, it would be very surprising for the Fed to make any changes to its policy at the meeting ending February 1, especially as this meeting will not include a press conference by Janet Yellen, and will not come with any new economic forecasts. There could be a few adjustments to the statement, however. Also, the makeup of the monetary policy committee will change with the rotation of regional members and some analysts expect the Fed s 2017 incarnation to be a little more dovish than 2016 s. Job creation according to the establishment survey (January) While household and business confidence is up and jobless claims have been lower lately, job creation does not seem to have as much momentum. Moreover, December s hires came in below expectations, at 156,000. We expect slightly better growth for January, with 165,000 hires. However, this forecast is subject to the establishment survey s annual revision, which will come out at the same time as January s results. The preliminary estimate for the revised level of employment for March 2016 suggests 150,000 fewer jobs. The jobless rate should stay at 4.7% for January 2017. ISM non-manufacturing index (October) In December, the non-manufacturing ISM returned to September s 56.6. This threshold is fairly encouraging for growth, but the index was higher in early fall 2015. Like the consumer confidence indexes, we expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to remain relatively stable in January. Real GDP by industry (November) Some of November s data were disappointing. For example, the volume of manufacturing sales rose 1.2% for the month, but this contribution was almost completely oset by a 0.7% drop in inventories. The volume of wholesaler sales also fell 0.1%. That being said, better results were also noted during the month. The volume of retail sales increased 0.7%. Hours worked in the entire Canadian economy also grew 1.0%. If we factor in the likelihood of a rebound by output in some sectors after October s struggles, the outlook is, all in all, fairly good for November. 4
TUESDAY January 31-5:00 Q4 2016 q/q Consensus 0.4% Q3 2016 0.3% THURSDAY February 2-7:00 February Consensus 0.25% Desjardins 0.25% December 15 0.25% OVERSEAS Euro zone: Real GDP (Q4) Euroland s economy posted similar growth in the second and third quarters of 2016. The two monthly 0.3% (non-annualized) gains are, however, slower than the 0.5% increases posted at the end of 2015 and in the first quarter of 2016. Some signs suggest that, for the final quarter, growth will be between these results, with 0.4% growth anticipated. This would put 2016 s annual real GDP growth at 1.6%, below 2015 s 1.9%. United Kingdom: Bank of England meeting (February) Many risks are looming over Britain s economy and the ongoing process leading up to Brexit has its own share of uncertainties. For now, however, the British economy remains resilient. This, combined with a surge in inflation, prompted the Bank of England (BoE) to substantially alter its stance, taking a more neutral position on upcoming key rate movements. We therefore expect a key rate status quo for February. It also seems to be too early for the BoE to announce another extension to its securities purchasing program. 5
Economic indicators Week of January 30 to February 3, 2017 Day Hour Indicator Period Consensus UNITED STATES Previous data MONDAY 30 8:30 Personal income (m/m) Dec. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 8:30 Personal consumption expenditures (m/m) Dec. 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 8:30 Personal consumption expenditures deflator Total (m/m) Dec. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Excluding food and energy (m/m) Dec. 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Total (y/y) Dec. 1.7% 1.7% 1.4% Excluding food and energy (y/y) Dec. 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 10:00 Pending home sales (m/m) Dec. 1.2% n/a -2.5% TUESDAY 31 9:00 S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (y/y) Nov. 5.00% 4.90% 5.10% 9:45 Chicago PMI index Jan. 55.0 54.0 53.9 10:00 Consumer confidence Jan. 112.8 113.0 113.7 WEDNESDAY 1 10:00 Construction spending (m/m) Dec. 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 10:00 ISM manufacturing index Jan. 55.0 55.2 54.5 14:00 Federal Reserve meeting Feb. 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% THURSDAY 2 --- Total vehicle sales (ann. rate) Jan. 17,600,000 17,000,000 18,290,000 8:30 Initial unemployment claims Jan. 23-27 250,000 250,000 259,000 8:30 Nonfarm productivity preliminary (ann. rate) Q4 0.9% 0.9% 3.1% 8:30 Unit labor costs preliminary (ann. rate) Q4 2.2% 2.6% 0.7% FRIDAY 3 8:30 Change in nonfarm payrolls Jan. 175,000 165,000 156,000 8:30 Unemployment rate Jan. 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 8:30 Weekly worked hours Jan. 34.3 34.3 34.3 8:30 Average weekly earnings (m/m) Jan. 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 9:15 Speech of the Chicago Fed President, C. Evans 10:00 ISM non-manufacturing index Jan. 57.0 56.5 56.6 10:00 Factory orders (m/m) Dec. 1.1% 0.1% -2.4 % MONDAY 30 --- --- TUESDAY 31 8:30 Real GDP by industry (m/m) Nov. 0.3% 0.3% -0.3% 8:30 Industrial product price index (m/m) Dec. 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 8:30 Raw materials price index (m/m) Dec. 3.8% 2.5% -2.0% WEDNESDAY 1 --- --- THURSDAY 2 --- --- FRIDAY 3 --- --- Note: Desjardins, Economic Studies are involved every week in the Bloomberg survey for Canada and the United States. Approximately 15 economists are consulted for the Canadian survey and a hundred or so for the United States. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. Following the quarter, the abbreviations f, s and t correspond to first estimate, second estimate and third estimate respectively. The times shown are Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5 hours). Forecast of Desjardins, Economic Studies of the Desjardins Group. 6
Economic indicators Week of January 30 to February 3, 2017 Country Hour Indicator Period OVERSEAS Consensus m/m (q/q) y/y Previous data m/m (q/q) y/y MONDAY 30 Euro zone 5:00 Business climate Jan. 0.80 0.79 Euro zone 5:00 Consumer confidence final Jan. -4.9-4.9 Euro zone 5:00 Industrial confidence Jan. 0.2 0.1 Euro zone 5:00 Services confidence Jan. 12.7 12.9 Euro zone 5:00 Economic confidence Jan. 107.8 107.8 Germany 8:00 Consumer price index preliminary Jan. -0.5% 2.0% 0.7% 1.7% Japan 18:30 Unemployment rate Dec. 3.1% 3.1% Japan 18:50 Industrial production preliminary Dec. 0.3% 3.0% 1.5% 4.6% United Kingdom 19:01 Consumer confidence Jan. -8-7 TUESDAY 31 Japan 0:00 Small business confidence Jan. n/a 48.8 Japan 0:00 Housing starts Dec. 8.4% 6.7% France 1:30 Real GDP preliminary Q4 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% Germany 2:00 Retail sales Dec. 0.6% 0.5% -1.8% 3.2% France 2:45 Personal consumption expenditures Dec. 0.2% 2.1% 0.4% 3.3% France 2:45 Consumer price index preliminary Jan. -0.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% Euro zone 5:00 Consumer price index estimate Jan. 1.5% 1.1% Euro zone 5:00 Real GDP preliminary Q4 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 1.7% Euro zone 5:00 Unemployment rate Dec. 9.8% 9.8% China 20:00 PMI manufacturing index Jan. 51.2 51.4 China 20:00 PMI non-manufacturing index Jan. n/a 54.5 WEDNESDAY 1 France 3:50 PMI composite index final Jan. 53.8 53.8 France 3:50 PMI manufacturing index final Jan. 53.4 53.4 France 3:50 PMI services index final Jan. 53.9 53.9 Germany 3:55 PMI composite index final Jan. 54.7 54.7 Germany 3:55 PMI manufacturing index final Jan. 56.5 56.5 Germany 3:55 PMI services index final Jan. 53.2 53.2 Euro zone 4:00 PMI manufacturing index final Jan. 55.1 55.1 United Kingdom 4:30 PMI manufacturing index Jan. 55.9 56.1 THURSDAY 2 United Kingdom 4:30 PMI construction index Jan. 53.8 54.2 United Kingdom 7:00 Release of the Bank of England Inflation Report United Kingdom 7:00 Bank of England meeting Feb. 0.25% 0.25% FRIDAY 3 Euro zone 4:00 PMI composite index final Jan. 54.3 54.3 Euro zone 4:00 PMI services index final Jan. 53.6 53.6 United Kingdom 4:30 PMI composite index Jan. 56.0 56.7 United Kingdom 4:30 PMI services index Jan. 55.8 56.2 Euro zone 5:00 Retail sales Dec. 0.3% 1.8% -0.4% 2.3% Russia 5:30 Bank of Russia meeting Feb. 10.00% 10.00% Note: In contrast to the situation in Canada and the United States, disclosure of overseas economic fi gures is much more approximate. The day of publication is therefore shown for information purposes only. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. The times shown are Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5 hours). 7
UNITED STATES Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. LEVEL Quart. ann. 1 year 2016 2015 2014 Gross domestic product (2009 $B) 2016 Q4* 16,805 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.6 2.4 Consumption (2009 $B) 2016 Q4* 11,640 2.5 2.8 2.7 3.2 2.9 Government spending (2009 $B) 2016 Q4* 2,915 1.2 0.5 0.9 1.8-0.9 Residential investment (2009 $B) 2016 Q4* 596.8 10.2 1.2 4.9 11.7 3.5 Non-residential investment (2009 $B) 2016 Q4* 2,206 2.4 0.3-0.4 2.1 6.0 Business inventory change (2009 $B) 1 2016 Q4* 48.7 --- --- 21.8 84.0 57.7 Exports (2009 $B) 2016 Q4* 2,138-4.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 4.3 Imports (2009 $B) 2016 Q4* 2,738 8.2 2.5 1.1 4.6 4.4 Final domestic demand (2009 $B) 2016 Q4* 17,338 2.5 2.1 2.1 3.1 2.6 GDP deflator (2009 = 100) 2016 Q4* 112.2 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.8 Labor productivity (2009 = 100) 2016 Q3 106.9 3.1-0.1 0.9 0.8 0.4 Unit labor cost (2009 = 100) 2016 Q3 110.7 0.7 3.0 2.0 2.0 0.9 Employment cost index (Dec. 2005 = 100) 2016 Q3 127.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 Current account balance ($B) 1 2016 Q3-113.0 --- --- -463.0-392.1-366.4 1 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. VARIATION (%) ANNUAL VARIATION (%) UNITED STATES Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH LEVEL -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year Leading indicator (2010 = 100) Dec.* 124.6 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.5 ISM manufacturing index 1 Dec. 54.5 53.5 51.7 52.8 47.9 ISM non-manufacturing index 1 Dec. 56.6 56.2 56.6 56.1 55.2 Cons. confidence Conference Board (1985 = 100) 1 Dec. 113.7 109.4 103.5 97.4 96.3 Personal consumption expenditure (2009 $B) Nov. 11,636 0.1 0.8 1.4 2.8 Disposable personal income (2009 $B) Nov. 12,762-0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 Consumer credit ($B) Nov. 3,750 0.7 1.7 3.3 6.3 Retail sales ($M) Dec. 469,092 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.1 Excluding automobiles ($M) Dec. 370,393 0.2 1.1 1.4 3.4 Industrial production (2007 = 100) Dec. 104.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.5 Production capacity utilization rate (%) 1 Dec. 75.5 74.9 75.3 75.4 75.4 New machinery orders ($M) Nov. 458,329-2.4 0.9 0.9-0.3 New durable good orders ($M) Dec.* 227,018-0.4-0.5 3.6 1.6 Business inventories ($B) Nov. 1,827 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.5 Housing starts (k) 1 Dec. 1,226 1,102 1,052 1,195 1,160 Building permits (k) 1 Dec. 1,228 1,212 1,225 1,153 1,201 New home sales (k) 1 Dec.* 536.0 598.0 568.0 558.0 538.0 Existing home sales (k) 1 Dec.* 5,490 5,650 5,490 5,570 5,450 Commercial surplus ($M) 1 Nov. -45,240-42,360-40,641-41,835-41,122 Nonfarm employment (k) 2 Dec. 145,303 156.0 495.0 1,131 2,157 Unemployment rate (%) 1 Dec. 4.7 4.6 4.9 4.9 5.0 Consumer price (1982 1984 = 100) Dec. 243.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.1 Excluding food and energy Dec. 249.9 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.2 Personal cons. expenditure deflator (2009 = 100) Nov. 111.5 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.4 Excluding food and energy Nov. 111.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 Producer price (2009 = 100) Dec. 111.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.6 Export prices (2000 = 100) Dec. 121.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.1 Import prices (2000 = 100) Dec. 121.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.8 1 Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. VARIATION (%) 8
Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. LEVEL VARIATION (%) ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year 2015 2014 2013 Gross domestic product (2007 $M) 2016 Q3 1,798,011 3.5 1.3 0.9 2.6 2.5 Household consumption (2007 $M) 2016 Q3 1,027,663 2.6 2.2 1.9 2.8 2.6 Government consumption (2007 $M) 2016 Q3 349,857-1.2 1.8 1.5 0.8-0.7 Residential investment (2007 $M) 2016 Q3 123,527-5.5 1.5 3.8 2.7-0.3 Non-residential investment (2007 $M) 2016 Q3 170,138 3.5-5.2-11.5 3.2 5.6 Business inventory change (2007 $M) 1 2016 Q3 4,591 --- --- 3,861 9,392 14,830 Exports (2007 $M) 2016 Q3 579,703 8.9-0.3 3.4 5.8 2.7 Imports (2007 $M) 2016 Q3 576,832 3.3 0.1 0.3 2.2 1.6 Final domestic demand (2007 $M) 2016 Q3 1,782,710 0.9 1.1 0.3 1.9 1.6 GDP deflator (2007 = 100) 2016 Q3 113.1 2.5 0.6-0.8 1.9 1.6 Labour productivity (2007 = 100) 2016 Q3 107.8 5.0 1.4-0.6 2.7 1.5 Unit labour cost (2007 = 100) 2016 Q3 115.8-2.7 0.6 2.6 0.8 1.2 Current account balance ($M) 1 2016 Q3-18,299 --- --- -67,553-48,207-61,121 Production capacity utilization rate (%) 1 2016 Q3 81.9 --- --- 81.1 82.4 81.0 Disposable personal income ($M) 2016 Q3 1,178,012 8.9 4.3 4.4 3.2 4.5 Corporate net operating surplus (2007 $M) 2016 Q3 228,436 93.1-1.5-19.5 8.2 4.0 1 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH LEVEL VARIATION (%) -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Oct. 1,679,363-0.3 0.4 0.8 1.5 Industrial production (2007 $M) Oct. 350,268-1.6 0.8 1.8 1.5 Manufacturing sales ($M) Nov. 51,770 1.5 0.9 3.1 2.1 Housing starts (k) 1 Dec. 207.0 187.3 218.8 219.4 170.9 Building permits ($M) Nov. 7,765-0.1 5.3 14.6 18.3 Retail sales ($M) Nov. 45,227 0.2 2.3 2.4 3.0 Excluding automobiles ($M) Nov. 33,811 0.1 1.8 1.5 3.4 Wholesale trade sales ($M) Nov.* 56,852 0.2 0.0 1.5 2.6 Commercial surplus ($M) 1 Nov. 526.5-1,024-2,107-3,726-2,081 Exports ($M) Nov. 45,614 4.3 4.4 10.3 5.2 Imports ($M) Nov. 45,088 0.7-1.6 0.1-0.8 Employment (k) 2 Dec. 18,225 53.7 36.1 28.4 17.8 Unemployment rate (%) 1 Dec. 6.9 6.8 7.0 6.8 7.1 Average weekly earnings ($) Nov.* 960.6 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.8 Number of salaried employees (k) 2 Nov.* 16,016 25.3 24.5 18.9 15.2 Consumer price (2002 = 100) Dec. 128.4-0.2-0.3-0.5 1.5 Excluding food and energy Dec. 123.5-0.4-0.6-0.3 1.8 Excluding 8 volatile items Dec. 128.1-0.3-0.6-0.4 1.6 Industrial product price (2002 = 100) Nov. 111.5 0.3 1.4 2.1 1.4 Raw materials price (2002 = 100) Nov. 91.9-2.0 1.2-0.2 4.1 Money supply M1+ ($M) Nov. 887,462 0.6 2.8 5.3 9.2 1 Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 9
UNITED STATES,, OVERSEAS Major financial indicators IN % (EXPECTED IF INDICATED) ACTUAL PREVIOUS DATA Jan. 27 Jan. 20-1 month 3 months 6 months -1 year Higher Average Lower United States Federal funds target 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.53 0.50 Treasury bill 3 months 0.50 0.49 0.50 0.29 0.27 0.32 0.54 0.34 0.18 Treasury bonds 2 years 1.22 1.20 1.17 0.87 0.66 0.79 1.27 0.86 0.56 Treasury bonds 5 years 1.96 1.94 1.92 1.33 1.03 1.33 2.07 1.37 0.94 Treasury bonds 10 years 2.50 2.47 2.45 1.84 1.46 1.93 2.60 1.86 1.36 Treasury bonds 30 years 3.08 3.05 3.06 2.62 2.18 2.76 3.18 2.61 2.11 S&P 500 index (level) 2,294 2,271 2,239 2,126 2,174 1,940 2,298 2,122 1,829 DJIA index (level) 20,084 19,827 19,763 18,161 18,432 16,466 20,101 18,202 15,660 Gold price (US$/ounce) 1,189 1,202 1,157 1,270 1,349 1,117 1,369 1,256 1,127 CRB index (level) 192.83 194.02 192.51 189.21 181.01 166.75 195.82 182.77 155.01 WTI oil (US$/barrel) 52.77 52.33 53.75 48.72 41.54 33.66 54.01 44.91 26.19 Canada Overnight target 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Treasury bill 3 months 0.43 0.44 0.46 0.48 0.53 0.46 0.56 0.49 0.42 Treasury bonds 2 years 0.80 0.77 0.75 0.57 0.54 0.42 0.83 0.59 0.35 Treasury bonds 5 years 1.15 1.13 1.12 0.72 0.60 0.67 1.23 0.77 0.48 Treasury bonds 10 years 1.80 1.75 1.72 1.23 1.03 1.22 1.83 1.29 0.95 Treasury bonds 30 years 2.44 2.38 2.31 1.89 1.64 2.04 2.46 1.95 1.55 Spread with the U.S. rate (% points) Overnight target -0.25-0.25-0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-0.03-0.25 Treasury bill 3 months -0.07-0.05-0.04 0.19 0.26 0.14 0.35 0.15-0.10 Treasury bonds 2 years -0.42-0.43-0.43-0.30-0.12-0.37-0.06-0.26-0.48 Treasury bonds 5 years -0.80-0.81-0.80-0.61-0.43-0.66-0.38-0.60-0.89 Treasury bonds 10 years -0.70-0.72-0.73-0.62-0.43-0.71-0.31-0.57-0.82 Treasury bonds 30 years -0.64-0.67-0.75-0.73-0.54-0.72-0.52-0.66-0.88 S&P/TSX index (level) 15,575 15,548 15,288 14,785 14,583 12,822 15,644 14,294 12,087 Exchange rate (C$/US$) 1.3111 1.3322 1.3433 1.3399 1.3030 1.3973 1.4053 1.3147 0.7627 Exchange rate (C$/ ) 1.4018 1.4259 1.4126 1.4721 1.4559 1.5142 1.5780 1.4494 0.0000 Overseas Euro zone ECB Refinancing rate 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.00 Exchange rate (US$/ ) 1.0692 1.0703 1.0516 1.0987 1.1174 1.0837 1.1532 1.1051 1.0387 United Kingdom BoE Base rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.38 0.25 Bonds 10 years 1.47 1.43 1.24 1.26 0.81 1.57 1.66 1.22 0.61 FTSE index (level) 7,184 7,198 7,143 6,996 6,724 6,084 7,338 6,576 5,537 Exchange rate (US$/ ) 1.2530 1.2375 1.2339 1.2185 1.3231 1.4248 1.4879 1.3391 1.2049 Germany Bonds 10 years 0.46 0.42 0.11 0.09-0.18 0.27 0.49 0.08-0.22 DAX index (level) 11,814 11,630 11,481 10,696 10,338 9,798 11,849 10,336 8,753 Japan BoJ Overnight rate -0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.10 0.10 0.10-0.09-0.10 Nikkei index (level) 19,467 19,138 19,114 17,446 16,569 17,518 19,594 17,063 14,952 Exchange rate (US$/ ) 115.11 114.63 116.90 104.71 102.07 121.06 120.99 108.49 99.89 CRB: Commodity Research Bureau; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; ECB: European Central Bank; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Japan Note: Data taken at markets closing, with the exeption of the current day where they were taken at 11:00 a.m. LAST 52 WEEKS 10