TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 7 Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 7446 Pho:21-986-1288 Fax:21-986-119 www.technometrica.com
Table Of Contents I. Methodology 3 II. Auto Demand Index 4-12 A. Auto Demand Index (Overall) B. By Region C. By Area Type D. By Age E. By Gender/Marital Status F. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity G. By Household Income III. Demand For New Autos 13-17 A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall B. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over Time C. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame D. Vehicle Types Momentum E. Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMA IV. Brand Preferences 18-23 A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today 3 SMA B. Brand Preferences Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands) C. Vehicle Origin: American-Made vs. Import Brands D. Luxury vs. Non-Luxury V. Contact Information 26 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 2
Methodology TechnoMetrica s Auto Demand Index is a forward looking early (monthly) indicator of consumers intent to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. The index has been set to an initial value of based on demand levels between February 27 and April 27. The Auto Demand Index is based on the responses Americans give to the question: How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? Would you say very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely? We express purchase intent as an index score that varies as a linear function of the percentage of consumers who are either very or somewhat likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. Higher index readings correspond to greater demand or intent to purchase/lease new automobiles. The index and its movement is projectable to the national market for new automobiles, which consists of over million U.S. households with drivers. Each month, TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to collect the survey data, with a sample size of around 9 respondents. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. The October Survey was conducted between September 29 th and October 8 th, 217. TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 3
Auto Demand Index (ADI) Auto Demand Index (Overall) Consumers intent to acquire new vehicles accelerated this month, largely due to attractive deals on outgoing 217 models, and increased optimism about the U.S. economy. This month, TechnoMetrica s Auto Demand Index climbed 19 points, or 21%, to a score of 11, its highest reading since February. The rise in vehicle purchase intent extends across most demographic groups, as 21 of the 23 segments we track on a monthly basis showed improvement in the Index this month. 14 12 8 6 4 2 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Auto Demand Index (ADI) Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-17 3SMA 3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Base = All Respondents High Low 211 94 49 212 15 49 213 86 64 214 88 73 215 129 64 216 123 82 217 121 84 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 4
Auto Demand Index Moving Averages Base = All Respondents October s Index score registered above all three of its moving averages. The reading surpassed its 12-month average (13) by seven points, topped its 6-month average (97) by 13 points, and bested its 3-month average (98) by 12 points. In addition, all three moving averages improved this month, indicating that vehicle purchase intent will remain strong in the near future. 13 12 3SMA 6SMA 12SMA 3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average 6SMA = Six Months Simple Moving Average 12SMA = Twelve Months Simple Moving Average 11 9 8 7 6 5 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Auto Demand Index (ADI) Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 5
Momentum: Moving Average Convergence Divergence Momentum= Fast Average (6-month exponential moving average) minus Slow Average (12-month exponential moving average) Base = All Respondents Our momentum indicator (MACD), while gaining.8 point this month, remains in negative territory with a reading of -2.8. Therefore, TechnoMetrica anticipates that the Auto Demand Index will moderate slightly in the coming months, though it should remain relatively robust. Further, while new vehicle sales continue to grow at a healthy pace, auto sales are not expected to match last year s record performance. MACD Auto Demand Index (ADI) Auto Sales Difference between 6 EMA- ADI and 12 EMA-ADI 8. 4.. -4. -8. 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 Difference between 6 EMA auto sales and 12 EMA auto sales Auto Sales (Millions) TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 6
By Region 3 SMA Base = All Respondents Northeast 15 12 SMA = 112 Midwest 12 SMA = 14 15 11 16 117 17 16 119 11 9 99 18 86 8 87 77 5 5 South West 15 12 SMA = 99 15 12 SMA = 11 12 12 16 15 12 96 87 92 91 97 91 94 89 9 5 5 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 7
By Area Type 3 SMA 15 Urban 12 SMA = 99 99 98 19 13 88 69 84 5 Base = All Respondents 15 Suburban 12 SMA = 12 12 88 89 87 99 13 5 15 122 Rural 112 15 13 12 SMA = 112 95 93 17 5 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 8
By Age 3 SMA 18-24 2 12 SMA = 116 2 1 15 122 12 11 89 91 9 5 15 5 45-64 127 12 SMA = 19 16 16 11 15 99 14-44 Base = All Respondents 2 12 SMA = 116 1 15 116 115 116 14 11 95 19 5 15 5 65+ 12 SMA = 69 6 61 65 65 66 65 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 9
By Gender and Marital Status 3 SMA Male 15 12 SMA = 15 16 12 97 12 96 97 13 5 Base = All Respondents Female 15 12 SMA = 11 14 91 88 94 83 94 5 15 Single 12 SMA = 96 15 Married 12 SMA = 111 11 86 83 78 79 76 9 111 19 115 112 19 12 18 5 5 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 1
By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity 3 SMA 2 1 15 5 Parents 128 123 127 122 12 SMA = 11 15 119 Base = All Respondents Non-Parents 15 12 SMA = 96 99 88 89 86 9 85 92 5 White Black/Hispanic 15 12 SMA = 99 1 12 SMA = 116 12 15 95 92 87 87 88 97 16 113 112 93 11 84 99 5 5 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 11
By Household Income 3 SMA 15 Under 3K 17 83 71 66 12 SMA = 93 82 87 84 15 3K-5K 8 84 85 Base = All Respondents 12 SMA = 87 77 63 5 5 15 5K-K 12 SMA = 15 14 99 112 84 95 97 17 5 K+ 12 SMA = 13 1 144 145 15 137 119 19 111 5 A-17 M-17 J-7 J-17 A-17 S-17 O-17 Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 12
Vehicle Purchase Plans October 217 Base = All Respondents Not Likely 82% Likely 18% This month, the share of Americans who say they are likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next six months increased by three points from September, to a rate of 18%. % 2% Vehicle Purchase Plans Over Time Likely 3 month SMA 15% 1% 5% % Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 13
Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame October 217 Base = Potential Buyers % 9% 8% Average Time Frame (Months) Apr-17 3.92 May-17 4.28 Within One Month Between 2 & 3 Months Between 4 & 6 Months Not Sure 7% 6% Jun-17 4.5 Jul-17 4.6 5% 14% 5% Aug-17 3.88 14% 4% 3% Sep-17 3.99 Oct-17 4.7 7% 2% 1% % Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Within 1 Month Between 2 and 3 Months Between 4 and 6 Months Not sure In October, the share of likely vehicle buyers planning to purchase or lease a new vehicle within one month remain unchanged from last month, at 14%. Similar shares of consumers (14%) plan to purchase a new auto within one month, and between two and three months. Meanwhile, more than two-thirds (7%) say they are likely to acquire a new vehicle within four to six months, up from 65% in September. Q. Will you make your purchase within the next month, 2 to 3 months, or in 4 to 6 months? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 14
Vehicle Type Momentum October 217 Base = Potential Buyers Negative Change No Change Positive Change 12SMA 3SMA 2% 21% 12% 12% 1% 11% 11% 1% 15% 15% 13% 13% 5% 5% 4% 5% Compact Full-Size Minivan Sub-Compact or Mini Large SUV Pickup Small SUV Mid-Size Q. What type of vehicle are you most likely to buy or lease? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 15
Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time - 3 SMA 4% Subcompact/Mini 12 SMA = 4 4% Compact Base = Potential Buyers 12 SMA = 12 3% 3% 2% 1% 6% 3% 3% 5% 7% 5% 5% % 2% 17% 15% 12% 12% 7% 7% 1% 1% % 4% Mid-Size 12 SMA = 2 4% Full-Size 12 SMA = 12 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 18% 19% 2% 21% 21% 3% 2% 1% 14% 17% 18% 13% 11% 9% 11% % % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 16
Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time - 3 SMA Minivan Pickup Base = Potential Customers 3% 12 SMA = 5 12 SMA = 13 3% 2% 2% 14% 15% 13% 14% 15% 15% 15% 1% 5% 6% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 1% % % Small SUV Large SUV 3% 12 SMA = 16 3% 12 SMA = 1 2% 1% 18% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 15% 2% 1% 11% 12% 9% 8% 9% 11% 11% % % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 17
Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today October 217 Base = Likely Buyers 3 Month Average 12 Month Average 15% 14% 12% 14% 12% 13% 1% 1% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Toyota Ford Chevrolet Honda GMC BMW Kia Nissan Subaru Jeep TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 18 *Sorted by 3SMA
Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top 4 Brands) 3% Toyota 12 SMA = 12 3% Ford Base = Likely Buyers 12 SMA = 14 2% 1% 1% 11% 14% 12% 15% 13% 15% 2% 1% 15% 15% 12% 13% 11% 12% 14% % % 3% Chevrolet 12 SMA = 13 3% Honda 12 SMA = 1 2% 1% 16% 12% 11% 12% 14% 14% 12% 2% 1% 7% 9% 1% 12% 11% 12% 1% % % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 19
Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 5 to 8) 2% 15% GMC 12 SMA = 5 2% 15% BMW Base = Likely Buyers 12 SMA = 3 1% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 1% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 4% 4% % % 2% 15% Kia 2% Nissan 12 SMA = 3 12 SMA = 3 15% 1% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% % 1% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 2
Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 9 & 1) 2% 15% Subaru 15% Jeep Base = Likely Buyers 2% 12 SMA = 3 12 SMA = 3 1% 1% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 5% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% % % TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 21
By Vehicle Origin October 217 Base = Likely Buyers 6% 5% Likely to Purchase by Origin 12 Month Average 3 Month Average 4% 3% 42% 42% 4% 41% 2% 1% 9% 9% % Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 European Asian American American Asian European Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 22
Luxury vs. Non-Luxury October 217 Base = Likely Buyers % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Brand Preference: Luxury vs. Non-Luxury 12 Month Average 3 Month Average 76% 78% 4% 3% 2% 1% 14% 14% 1% 8% % Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Luxury Non-Luxury Not Sure Luxury Non-Luxury Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy? TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 23
Key Findings Vehicle purchase intent is soaring among Americans, largely due to enticing deals on outgoing models, and consumers robust confidence in a growing U.S. economy. This month, TechnoMetrica s Auto Demand Index climbed 19 points to a score of 11, its highest reading since February. Weather conditions may have contributed to the recent rise in purchase intent. Consumers in areas seriously impacted by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma were beginning to replace vehicles damaged by the storms. Meanwhile, the recent pleasant, summer-like weather in the Northeast has fostered favorable conditions for new vehicle shopping. The Index s strong performance this month becomes further pronounced when measuring the indicator against its long-term and short-term moving averages. October s Index score registered above all three moving averages. The reading surpassed its 12-month average (13) by seven points, its 6-month average (97) by 13 points, and its 3-month average (98) by 12 points. In addition, all three moving averages improved this month, indicating that vehicle purchase intent will remain robust in the near future. The recent acceleration in consumers intent to acquire new vehicles corresponds with the sharp rise in auto sales last month. In September, new vehicle sales increased 6.1% compared with the same month last year, registering an annual rate of 18.57 million vehicles, the highest reading of 217. However, though auto sales should continue to grow at a healthy pace, due to increased incentives and relatively low gas prices, our data suggests that sales may not match the all-time record of 17.5 million vehicles set in 216. For instance, our momentum indicator (MACD), while improving this month, remains in negative territory, indicating that purchase intent may moderate slightly in the near future. This month s rise in vehicle purchase intent extends across most demographic groups. Of the twenty-three segments that TechnoMetrica tracks on a monthly basis, 21 showed improvement in the Index this month. Purchase intent grew most significantly among Midwestern Americans (+21), consumers residing in the Northeast (+16), urban residents (+15), and the African American/Hispanic segment (+15). Overall, eleven groups posted Index readings above this month, with parents, consumers earning an income of $K or more, and drivers aged to 44 reporting the highest levels of purchase intent. TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 24
Key Findings Nearly one in five consumers (18%) indicated that they were likely to acquire a new vehicle within the next six months, a threepoint increase from September. Most drivers who are likely to purchase a new car plan to wait a few months before procuring the vehicle. More than two-thirds (7%) say they are likely to acquire a new vehicle in four to six months, up from 65% in September. Meanwhile, similar shares of consumers (14%) plan to purchase a new auto within one month, and between two and three months. The mid-size vehicle remains the most preferred vehicle type among consumers. More than one in five Americans likely to acquire a new auto in the coming months plan to choose a mid-size vehicle for their purchase. Consumers are also showing strong preference for pickup trucks and small SUVs, as both vehicle types captured a 15% share of likely buyers this month. The Auto Demand Index also provides key insight into the brand preferences among prospective buyers. This month, Toyota claimed the top spot in brand choice, garnering a 15% share of consumers. Ford, the top choice among 14% of likely buyers, gained one position to take second place. Chevrolet, which was Americans most desired brand last month, fell to third place in October, with a 12% share of consumers. Rounding out the top five in consumers favorite brands were Honda, which dropped from 12% to 1% this month, and GMC, which remained unchanged at 5%. Consumers favor American-made vehicles over import brands, according to our study. Preference for vehicles made in the U.S. climbed ten points from September, to a share of 46%, its highest level since March. Meanwhile, more than two in five prospective buyers (43%) intend to acquire Asian brands. TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page
Contact Information To request a full data set or for any questions, please contact us Contact: Raghavan Mayur Address: 7 Hilltop Road, Suite 1 Ramsey, NJ 7446 Phone: 8-328-TECH (8324) 21-986-1288 Fax: 21-986-119 Email: Web: mayur@technometrica.com www.technometrica.com TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index October 217 Page 26