views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. RE9E*R of St. Louis MAR 2 8 1988 March 24, 1988 THE WEEK'S HIGHLIGHTS: s New factory orders for durable goods (seasonally adjusted) fell 1.8 percent in February, following a similar decline in January. This is the first consecutive two-month decline in durable goods orders since the spring of 1986. is Consumer prices rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate (seasonally adjusted) in February, compared with a 4.2 percent rate of increase in January. February prices were up 3.8 percent from a year earlier. s The U.S. merchandise trade deficit was $12.44 billion (not seasonally adjusted) in January, up slightly from $12.2 billion last December. U.S. imports declined 6 percent in January, reaching their lowest levels in nine months, while U.S. exports fell 10 percent. ts Real GNP growth for the fourth quarter of 1987 was revised upward to an annual rate of 4.8 percent. Real GNP growth for the year ending in the fourth quarter of 1987 was 4 percent, the highest annual growth since 1984. II IK FEDERAL A RESERVE ItAXKof nr ST. LOUIS
2 ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE BY THIS BANK 276 1.98& BILLIONS. JAN, 273.0 272.4 272. I 274.2 264 II 25 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 I 15 28 12 28 0 23 7 21 4 18 2 16 30 13 27 10 24 0 23 6 20 FEB MAR MAY JUN OCT NOV JAN FEB 1987 1988 LATEST PLOTTED RESERVE MAINTENANCE PERIOD ENDINGt MARCH 23, 1988 THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE IS THE SUM OF RESERVE ACCOUNTS OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS AT FEDERAL RESERVE BAM<S.CURRENCY INCIPECULATION 1CURRENCY_HELP_BY_THE_PUBUC_AND _IN THE_VAULTS_OF.ALL DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS) AM)... AN ADJUSTMENT FOR RESERVE REC UIREMENT RATIO CHANGES. THE MAJOR SOURCE OF.. THE... ADJUSTEDMONETARY iry BASE IS S FEDERAL RESERVE CF EDIT. DATA ARE COMPUTED BY THIS A DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE ADJUSTED MONETARY BAJ E IS AVAILABLE FROM THIS BANK. RECENT DATA ARE PRELIMINARY. TO THE AVERAGE OF TWO MAINTENANCE PERIODS ENDING: ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF TWO MAINTENANCE PERIODS ENDING: 3/25/87 6/17/87 8/26/87 9/23/87 10/21/87 11/18/87 12/16/87 1/27/88 8/26/87 6. 1 9/23/87 6.2 5. 1 10/21/87 5.8 4.6 4.8 11/18/87 7.2 7. 1 9.2 10.6 12/16/87 6.8 6.4 7.6 8.0 10.5 1/27/88 7.6 7.7 9.2 9.7 11.7 9. 1 2/24/88 7. 1 7.0 8.0 8.3 9.5 7.0 8.6 3/23/88 6.9 6.8 7.5 7.7 8.5 6.4 7.4 3. 1
1558. BILLIONS 761.1 759.9 762. 1 754.9 755.8 760.5 MONEY STOCK (Ml ) 780 2 10 2 10 90 10 27 II 25 8 22 0 20 3 17 91 M 28 12 20 9 23 7 21 APR MAY SEP OCT DEC JAN MAR APR LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING*. MARCH 14, 1988 CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS* H.6 RELEASE. Ml IS THE SUM OF CURRENCY HELD BY THE NONBANK PUBLIC, DEMAND DEPOSITS, OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AND TRAVELERS ChECKS. MONEY STOCK (Ml ) TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 3/16/87 6/15/87 8/17/87 9/14/87 10/12/87 11/16/87 12/14/87 1/11/88 8/17/87 4.2 9/14/87 3.9 1. 1 10/12/87 4.2 2.3 4.3 11/16/87 5.0 4.0 6.4 8.3 12/14/87 3.4 1.8 2.4 2.4 0.7 1/11/88 3.3 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.2-4.0 2/15/88 4.4 3.6 4.6 5.0 4.7 2.8 8.9 3/14/88 3.5 2.5 3.1 3.2 2.6 0.6 4.0 4.8 3
4 RATIO MONEY MULTIPLIERi/ CURRENCY COMPONENT OF MONEY STOCK 2/ RATIO RATIO 2.809 2.783 2.794 Ml MULTIPLIER 9 23 9 23 0 20 4 18 1 15 29 IS 27 10 2A 7 21 5 19 2 10 30 14 28 11 23 0 22 7 21 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 1987 1988 LATEST DATA PLOTTED TWO WEEKS ENDING: MARCH 7, 1988 ILL IONS OF DOLLARS 206 - COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES - OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF THE FOUR WEEKS END ING MARCH 14, 1988 FROM THE FOUR WEEKS ENDING: _ OCT MAR 16, 1987 CURRENCY 19SS BILLIONS FEB. 8 199.4 200.2 I I I 1 1.1 II 1,1 1 1 1 111 2 16 2 16 30 13 27 II 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 9 23 7 21 4 18 1 15 29 14 28 II 25 DEC JAN LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: MARCH 14, 1988 1/ RATIO OF MONEY STOCK (Ml ) TO ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE 2/ CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.6 RELEASE.
580 ----------.-------------,----- 19M BILLIONS FEB. 554.5 553. 1 555.3 548.5 549.2 552.9 TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS -------- ---------------------- 580 2 16 2 16 30 13 27 II 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 IA 28 12 26 9 23 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT 1987 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt MARCH 14, 1988 DEC JAN MAR APR DEPOS1 TORY^NSTJTUT?ONS? 'S T* SUM V DEMW DEPOSITS AND OTHER CHECKABLE DEPOSITS AT ALL TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: TOTAL CHECKABLE DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING-. 3/16/87 6/15/87 8/17/87 9/U/B7 10/12/87 11/16/87 12/M/87 I/I 1/88 8/17/87 3.2 9/14/87 2.7-1.0 10/12/87 3. 1 0.4 2.8 11/16/87 3.9 2.3 5. 1 7.3 12/14/87 1.7-0.7-0.2-0.3-2.7 1/11/88 1.4-0.7-0.4-0.5-2.2 2/15/88 2.8 1.4 2.5 2.9 2.3 3/14/88 1.8 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.2-8.6-0. 1-2.2 7.6 2.3 3.9 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANC OF ST. LOUIS 5
6 YIELDS ON SELECTED SECURITIES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES percent CORPORATE AAA BONDS.PAN RATE 6 20 8 20 3 17 I 15 20 12 20 10 24 7 21 4 18 2 10 50 15 27 11 25 8 22 5 10 4 18 1 15 20 FEB MAR APR AUG SEP NOV DEC FEB MAR LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING. MARCH 25, 1988. 1988 90 DAY CD'S 30-DAY COMMERC1AL PAPER 90-DAY BANKERS' ACCEPTANCES CORPORATE Aaa BONDS CORPORATE Baa BONDS MUNICIPAL BOWS ft* FEB. 5 6.63 6.59 6.50 9.46 10.71 7.49 12 6.54 6.47 6.43 9.42 10.62 7.40 19 6.64 6.61 6.55 9.41 10.60 7.55 26 6.61 6.53 6.48 9.33 10.56 7.52 MAR. 4 6.58 6.54 6.45 9.27 10.48 7.47 1 1 6.62 6.55 6.50 9.34 10.50 7.67 18 6.61 6.56 6.51 9.36 10.55 7.75 25 * APR. 1 8 15 22 29 6.63 6.57 6.52 9.42 10.63 N. A. NOTE. CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS' H.15 RELEASE. * AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE ** BOND BUYER'S AVERAGE IWJEX OF 20 MUNICIPAL BOMJS, THURSDAY DATA N.A. - NOT AVAILABLE
PERCENT 11.0 i SELECTED INTEREST RATES AVERAGES OF DAILY RATES PERCENT I 11.0 10.0----------------------------------------------------------------------------------5-YEAR----------------------------------------------------------------------- 10.0 TREASURY SECURITIES FEDERAL, FUNDS RATE Kr- DISCOUNT RATE 3-MONTH TREASURY BILL I 1 I 1 I I.1 I I 1 I 1 1 1 11 1 1 I I I 1 1 I I 1 III 1 1,1 I I I 1 I I 1 J 1 1 1 I I 1 1.1 1 1 I 1 I 1 1 J 1 I 1 1 I I I L. 6 20 6 20 5 17 1 15 20 12 26 10 24 7 21 4 18 2 16 50 13 27 11 25 22 5 18 4 18 1 15 20 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR 1987 I 988 LATEST DATA PLOTTED ARE AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING* MARCH 25, 1988. 1988 FEDERAL FUNDS XX 3-MONTH TREASURY BILL 6-MONTH TREASURY BILL X*QK 1-YEAR TREASURY BILL 5-YEAR TREASURY SECURITIES LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES FEB. 5 6.77 5.67 6. 1 1 6.22 7.73 8.43 12 6.38 5.65 5.85 6.16 7.67 8.42 19 6.65 5.72 6.03 6.27 7.79 8.55 26 6.64 5.63 5.83 6.20 7.70 8.46 MAR. 4 6.60 5.63 5.86 6.20 7.63 8.44 1 1 6.51 5.73 5.93 6.28 7.78 8.60 18 6.61 5.64 5.78 6.23 7.78 8.63 25 X APR. 1 8 15 22 29 6.51 5.78 5.96 6.33 7.91 8.77 NOTE: CURRENT DATA APPEAR IN THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS H.15 RELEASE EXCLUDING LONG-TERM TREASURY SECURITIES WHICH ARE COMPUTED BY THIS BANK. TREASURY BILL YIELDS ARE ON A DISCOUNT BASIS. X AVERAGES OF RATES AVAILABLE XX SEVEN-DAY AVERAGES FOR WEEK ENDING TWO DAYS EARLIER THAN DATE SHOWN XXX AUCTION AVERAGE (DISCOUNT) 7
8 isfifl BILLIONS 393.6 394.1 395.3 395.6 396.1 COMMERCIAL BANK SMALL TIME DEPOSITS 1/ LARGE TIME DEPOS I TS 2/ SMALL TIME DEPOSITS LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt MARCH 14, 1988 330 r--------,------------- 1------ ISM BILLIONS ----------------------------=] 330 324.4 323.6 LARGE TIME DEPOSITS 325.2 324.9 325.1 2 18 2 16 30 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 0 23 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 1987 LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING: MARCH 14, 1988 1/ TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF LESS THAN 8100,000 2/ TIME DEPOSITS ISSUED IN DENOMINATIONS OF 8100,000 OR MORE I 15 28 14 28 11 25 FEB MAR 1988
COMMERCIAL BANK TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS 920 894.3 898.6 899.0 902.5 903.2 910 900 890 880 870 060 850 840 830 820 II I I 2 16 2 10 30 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 12 28 0 23 T 21 APR MAY SEP OCT DEC JAN MAR APR LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK EM)INO«MARCH 14, 1988 TOTAL TIME IS THE SUM OF SAVINGS DEPOSITS, SMALL TIME DEPOSITS AND LARGE TIME DEPOSITS. TO THE AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: TOTAL TIME DEPOSITS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE, AVERAGE OF FOUR WEEKS ENDING: 3/16/87 6/15/87 8/17/87 9/14/87 10/12/87 11/16/87 12/14/87 1/11/88 8/17/87 9.3 9/14/87 8.5 6.7 10/12/87 8.2 6.6 5.3 11/16/87 9.9 9.7 11.1 14.3 12/14/87 9.6 9.3 10.2 12.1 14.7 1/11/88 9.2 8.7 9. 1 10.2 11.4 5.8 2/15/88 8.8 8,3 8.4 9.2 9.9 5.9 5.3 3/14/88 9.4 9.1 9.5 10.3 11.0 8.3 8.6 10.5 9
10 3.0 ---------- «---------- i-------- BORROWINGS FROM FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS JM MILLIONS. ------------------- ----------- 3-0 690 16 1311 23 2537 TOTAL BORROWINGS LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDINGt MARCH 23. 1988 1988 MILLIONS FEB. 17 254 24 132 MAR. 2 187 9 378 16 153 23 325 ADJUSTMENT + SEASONAL BORROWINGS 4 18 4 18 I 15 20 13 27 10 24 8 22 5 10 2 10 30 14 28 11 23 0 23 6 20 3 17 2 16 30 13 27 FEB MAR OCT NOV JAN FEB LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING* MARCH 23, 1988
COMMERCIAL PAPER OF NONFINANCIAL COMPANIES I ILL IONS OF DOLLARS 95 ---------- 1----------.-------- NOT ------------------- ----------- 95 FEB. 10 87,541 88,550 01,822 I I I I 4 18 4 18 I 15 20 15 27 10 24 8 22 5 10 2 16 30 14 28 11 25 0 23 8 20 3 17 2 16 30 13 27 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL 1987 AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR 1988 APR LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING* MARCH 18, 1988 * >ASHED LINE REPRESENTS DATA USING A NEW REPORTING PANEL AND IS NOT COMPARABLE TO PREVIOUS DATA. BUSINESS LOANS u ( COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ) WEEKLY REPORTING LARGE COMMERCIAL BANKS 2/ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE. AVERAGE OF THE FOUR *EEKS ENDING DECEMBER 30. 1987 FROM THE FOUR WE KS ENDING* OCT. 28, 1987 3.8 SEP. 30, 1987 6.2 SEP. 2, 1987 7.6 JUL. 29, 1987 4.9 JUL. 1, 1987 1.2 APR. 1, 1987-0.7 DEC. 31, 1986 0.2 NOV. 25 DEC. 2 276,566 277,744 278,725 276,381 I I I I 1 I 1 I 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 111 I 5 10 3 17 31 14 28 II 25 II 25 8 22 8 20 3 17 1 15 20 12 0 23 7 21 4 18 2 16 30 13 27 JAN FEB MAR MAY JUN OCT NOV LATEST DATA PLOTTED WEEK ENDING* DECEMBER 30, 1987 1/ BUSINESS LOANS INCLUDE BAhKERS' ACCEPTANCES AND COMMERCIAL PAPER. 2/ BANKS WITH DOMESTIC ASSETS GREATER THAN 81.4 BILLION 11