Central Oregon Voters and Transportation Issues September 2013 1
Methodology Sample A total of 1,150 live telephone interviews were conducted among representative samples of voters in four Central Oregon cities, including: N=400 interviews in Bend N=400 in Redmond N=200 in Prineville N=150 in Madras The region-wide N=1,150 interviews were weighted to actual voter population of the four city area. Method Landline and cell phone interviews conducted September 12-17, 2013. Sampling Error Plus or minus 3% at the 95% confidence level for N=1,150. Plus or minus 5% at the 95% confidence level for N=400. Plus or minus 7% at the 95% confidence level for N=200. Plus or minus 8% at the 95% confidence level for N=150. 2
Most Important Issue 3
Most Important Issue: Region What, in your opinion, is the most important issue facing people in the City of [CITY] today? (Q1) 60% 54% 40% 20% 20% 7% 6% 5% 5% 3% 0% Creating jobs Improving public education Improving public transportation Reducing crime Protecting the environment Other/none Don t know Creating jobs is the current issue priority among all subgroups region-wide. Improving public transportation is the top priority for just 7% 4
Most Important Issue: Cities Bend Redmond Prineville Madras Creating jobs 52% 58% 69% 49% Improving public education 20% 19% 16% 19% Improving public transportation 7% 7% 2% 6% Protecting the environment 7% 1% 1% 2% Reducing crime 6% 6% 5% 10% Other/none 5% 6% 5% 7% Don t know 3% 3% 1% 7% Creating jobs is the most important issue in each city. Improving public transportation is not a top priority in any of the four cities. 5
Transportation Issues 6
Importance of Public Transportation: Region Now, thinking about public transportation, and by this I primarily mean the Cascades East Transit bus system. In your opinion, how important is a public transportation system to the [CITY] area? (Q2) 80% 79% 60% 47% 40% 31% 20% 18% 13% 5% 3% 0% Very important Fairly important Total important Total not important Not very important Not important at all Don t know Transportation is considered important by a wide majority in the region, with nearly half saying it is very important. All voter subgroups agree. 7
Importance of Public Transportation: Cities Bend Redmond Prineville Madras Very important 49% 40% 49% 53% Fairly important 31% 29% 29% 30% Total important 81% 70% 78% 82% Total not important 17% 25% 16% 15% Not very important 13% 17% 13% 8% Not important at all 5% 7% 3% 7% Don t know 2% 6% 6% 2% Transportation is considered important by wide majorities in all cities. 8
Rating Local Public Transportation: Region And how would you rate the public transportation system in the [CITY] area? (Q3) 40% 33% 30% 30% 23% 20% 12% 14% 14% 10% 9% 2% 0% Excellent Above average Total excellent/above average Average Total below average/poor Below average Poor Don t know One-in-three in the region rate the area s public transportation system as average, approximately one-in-four say below average/poor. A significant percentage don t know enough about the system to have an opinion. 9
Rating Local Public Transportation: Region Key Subgroups Least likely to have an opinion about public transit: Voters age 65+ Redmond residents Voters who say public transportation is not important Voters undecided on a property tax increase and a utility fee increase 10
Rating Local Public Transportation: Cities Bend Redmond Prineville Madras Excellent 1% 2% 5% 8% Above average 14% 9% 7% 8% Total excellent/above average 15% 11% 12% 16% Average 34% 26% 29% 33% Total below average/poor 22% 27% 25% 21% Below average 14% 14% 11% 14% Poor 8% 12% 14% 6% Don t know 28% 36% 34% 31% Transportation system ratings are consistent among voters in all four cities. Approximately one-in-three voters in all cities have no opinion on this issue. 11
Biggest Transportation Problem: Region Thinking now from a personal standpoint, which one of the following is the biggest problem for you when getting from one place to another in the [CITY] area? (Q4) Road construction Condition of roads, potholes and dangerous roads Congestion 17% 20% 23% Don t drive or have access to a car Lack of public transportation Lack of certainty about time to get there by car 2% 6% 5% Something else Don t know 15% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Region-wide, construction, condition of roads and congestion are top problems. Importantly, lack of public transportation is the top concern for only 5% in the region. 12
Biggest Transportation Problem: Cities Bend Redmond Prineville Madras Road construction 20% 42% 4% 3% Condition of roads, potholes and dangerous roads 22% 12% 8% 26% Congestion 19% 8% 19% 18% Don t drive or have access to a car 6% 2% 6% 7% Lack of public transportation 5% 6% 8% 7% Lack of certainty about time to get there by car 2% 1% 2% 2% Something else 13% 14% 25% 21% Don t know 12% 15% 27% 15% Top problems vary by city, but lack of public transportation is not a top concern anywhere: For Bend voters, construction, condition of roads and congestion are equally problematic. Redmond voters biggest complaint is construction. In Prineville, congestion is the top concern (one-in-four say something else not specified in the survey is a top concern). In Madras, the top issue is condition of roads. 13
Funding Proposals 14
Preferred Public Transportation Funding: Region Now, thinking about funding for public transportation, which one of the following funding options would you prefer pay for public transportation expansion and improvements in [CITY]? (Q5) Re-allocating funds from programs and services currently paid for by [CITY] s general fund 33% None/no increases/taxes etc. 18% A city-wide sales tax on prepared food and beverages Increased property taxes for homeowners Increased payroll taxes for businesses 9% 6% 14% 52% want no additional tax or fee A utility fee for homeowners and businesses 5% Other 3% Don t know 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% More than half of voters in the region want no additional tax or fee for public transportation expansion and improvements. All voter subgroups prefer reallocating/no increases over any of the funding options. 15
Preferred Public Transportation Funding: Cities Re-allocating funds from programs and services currently paid for by [CITY] s general fund Bend Redmond Prineville Madras 32% 37% 40% 30% None/no increases/taxes etc. 16% 26% 22% 17% Total no increases 49% 63% 63% 47% A city-wide sales tax on prepared food and beverages Increased property taxes for homeowners 16% 13% 9% 9% 10% 6% 6% 13% Increased payroll taxes for businesses 6% 5% 5% 6% A utility fee for homeowners and businesses 5% 3% 3% 6% Other 4% 3% 1% 3% Don t know 12% 8% 13% 17% No additional taxes/fees is preferred throughout all four cities. Redmond and Prineville residents are most likely to share this sentiment, but a plurality of voters in Madras and Bend are also opposed to any type of increase. 16
Reasons for Preferred Public Transportation Funding: Region and Cities Why do you prefer [CITY] use that funding option to pay for public transportation expansion and improvements? (Q6) Prefer increased property tax: In favor of property taxes It s fair Best option Transportation is necessary Prefer a utility fee: Everyone should be taxed equally It s fair Homeowners shouldn t have to shoulder the whole load Best option Prefer sales tax on prepared food/beverages: Tourists should/will also contribute In favor of food/sales tax Best option Everyone should be taxed equally Prefer increased payroll taxes: Transportation is necessary Businesses should pay for it Funds not spent properly Oppose property tax Don t want them taking money from schools Too many taxes/can t afford taxes Prefer re-allocation: Too many taxes/can t afford taxes 17
35-Cent Property Tax Increase: Region One of the funding options is a property tax increase. Would you vote yes to support or no to oppose a property tax increase of an additional 35 cents per thousand dollars of assessed home value, or BEND= $88 per year on a $250,000 home REDMOND= $70 per year on a $200,000 home PRINEVILLE= $61 per year on a $175,000 home MADRAS= $53 per year on a $150,000 home 80% 60% to sustain and improve transit service levels in [CITY]? or probably yes/no? (Q7) IF YES/NO: Is that definitely yes/no 67% 54% 40% 27% 20% 11% 16% 6% 14% 0% Definitely yes Probably yes Total yes Don t know Total no Probably no Definitely no Two-in-three voters in the region oppose the 35-cent option; more than half would definitely vote no. 18
35-Cent Property Tax Increase: Region Key Subgroups All voter subgroups are opposed, however, the most likely to support a 35-cent increase are: Voters age 18-34 Democrats Transit supporters Voters who say improving public transit is the most important issue in their city Voters who say public transit is very important Voters who rate local public transit as excellent/above average Voters who say a lack of public transit is their biggest personal transportation problem 19
35-Cent Property Tax Increase: Cities Bend Redmond Prineville Madras Definitely yes 11% 10% 8% 13% Probably yes 15% 16% 17% 22% Total yes 26% 26% 25% 35% Don t know 6% 6% 4% 8% Total no 67% 68% 71% 57% Probably no 12% 13% 13% 13% Definitely no 55% 55% 58% 44% The 35-cent option faces majority opposition in all four cities. 20
20-Cent Property Tax Increase: Region The final amount of the proposed property tax has not been determined. Instead of 35 cents, would you vote yes to support or no to oppose a property tax increase of an additional 20 cents per thousand dollars of assessed home value, or BEND= $50 per year on a $250,000 home REDMOND= $40 per year on a $200,000 home PRINEVILLE= $35 per year on a $175,000 home MADRAS= $30 per year on a $150,000 home 80% to sustain transit service levels in [CITY]? IF YES/NO: Is that definitely yes/no or probably yes/no? (Q7/8) 60% 54% 40% 28% 42% 44% 20% 0% 13% 10% 4% Definitely yes Probably yes Total yes Don t know Total no Probably no Definitely no The 20-cent option faces majority opposition in the region; more than fourin-ten would definitely vote no. 21
20-Cent Property Tax Increase: Region Key Subgroups As with the 35-cent option, most supportive of a 20- cent increase are: Voters age 18-34 Democrats Transit supporters Voters who say improving public transit is the most important issue in their city Voters who say public transit is very important Voters who rate local public transit as excellent/above average Voters who say a lack of public transit is their biggest personal transportation problem 22
20-Cent Property Tax Increase: Cities Bend Redmond Prineville Madras Definitely yes 14% 12% 9% 16% Probably yes 27% 29% 30% 31% Total yes 41% 41% 39% 47% Don t know 4% 3% 2% 4% Total no 54% 56% 59% 49% Probably no 9% 8% 12% 10% Definitely no 45% 47% 47% 39% Majorities in Bend, Redmond and Prineville oppose the 20-cent option. Madras voters are divided. Within Madras, women, younger voters, Democrats and transit supporters are among the most supportive. 23
35-Cent vs. 20-Cent Property Tax Increase: Region Here is some more information about a potential property tax increase. As you may know, the final amount of the proposed property tax has not been determined. A 35-cent property tax increase would allow for public transportation improvements throughout your area, including increased bus routes, hours and frequency; expanded weekend service and expanded shuttle service between Central Oregon cities. A 20-cent property tax increase would maintain current public transportation service levels only, with no improvements. Based on this, do you prefer a 35-cent property tax increase option or a 20-cent property tax increase option? (Q9) 40% 30% 28% 31% 36% 20% 10% 0% 35-cent option 20-cent option Neither/no increase Don t know 5% Region-wide, after hearing further information, those who are open to an increase are divided between the cost options. Still, more than one-in-three in the region want no increase. 24
35-Cent vs. 20-Cent Property Tax Increase: Region Key Subgroups Among those who are open to an increase, most likely to support the 35-cent option are: Voters age 18-34 Democrats Transit supporters Voters who say improving public transit is the most important issue in their city Voters who say public transit is very important Voters who rate local public transit as excellent/above average Voters who say a lack of public transit is their biggest personal transportation problem 25
35-Cent vs. 20-Cent Property Tax Increase: Cities Bend Redmond Prineville Madras 35-cent option 29% 22% 28% 29% 20-cent option 29% 31% 33% 35% Neither/no increase 37% 41% 35% 28% Don t know 5% 7% 4% 8% After hearing more information, Bend voters are divided between the options, but 37% still want no increase. Redmond voters prefer the 20-cent option 31-22%, but 41% still want no increase. Prineville voters are divided, but 35% still want no increase. Madras voters are divided, but 28% still want no increase. 26
Utility Fee: Region One of the funding options is a utility fee. Would you support or oppose a City Council decision that would implement a $2.75 per month utility fee for [CITY] residents, totaling $33 per year, in order to improve public transportation services in your area? IF SUPPORT/OPPOSE: Is that strongly support/oppose or somewhat support/oppose? (Q10) 80% 60% 55% 40% 38% 41% 24% 20% 14% 8% 14% 0% Strongly support Somewhat support Total support Don t know Total oppose Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose A utility fee is not popular; 55% in the region are opposed. 27
Utility Fee: Region Key Subgroups A utility fee is most likely to find support among: Younger voters Democrats Transit supporters Voters who say improving public transit is the most important issue in their city Voters who say public transit is very important Voters who rate local public transit as excellent/above average Voters who say a lack of public transit is their biggest personal transportation problem 28
Utility Fee: Cities Bend Redmond Prineville Madras Strongly support 14% 14% 12% 20% Somewhat support 25% 21% 19% 19% Total support 39% 35% 31% 39% Don t know 8% 8% 6% 9% Total oppose 54% 58% 62% 52% Somewhat oppose 14% 12% 16% 17% Strongly oppose 40% 46% 47% 35% There is majority opposition toward a utility fee in all cities. 29
Messaging 30
Public Transit Messages: Region People consider a number of factors in their voting decisions. Please tell me how important each of the following is to you when considering how to vote on a potential property tax increase for public transit in [CITY], very important, somewhat important, not too important or not important at all. Improving public transit in [CITY] will provide services for area residents who are disabled or elderly or are lower income who depend on transit service. (Q11) 13% 54% very important 84% Important Public transit is an important tool in responding to environmental concerns about air quality and greenhouse gases. (Q13) 34% very important 31% 66% Not important Public transit is essential to the economy of the region. Improving public transit in [CITY] will do more than provide basic services it will encourage and support economic development. (Q14) 28% very important 29% 66% Public transit is an affordable way to travel and transit riders save thousands of dollars when they forego owning a car and rely on transit for most trips. Improving public transit in [CITY] would allow area riders to realize these savings. (Q12) 29% very important 31% 65% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% The most effective message region-wide, among all subgroups, focuses on providing services for transit-dependent residents; more than eight-in-ten say this is important in their voting decision for a property tax increase. 31
Public Transit Messages: Cities Improving public transit in [CITY] will provide services for area residents who are disabled or elderly or are lower income who depend on transit service. (Q11) Bend Redmond Prineville Madras Very important 55% 51% 53% 57% Total important 86% 81% 81% 80% Not important 12% 15% 15% 14% Public transit is an important tool in responding to environmental concerns about air quality and greenhouse gases. (Q13) Very important 36% 29% 20% 37% Total important 69% 61% 52% 71% Not important 29% 34% 44% 25% Public transit is essential to the economy of the region. Improving public transit in [CITY] will do more than provide basic services it will encourage and support economic development. (Q14) Very important 29% 27% 19% 32% Total important 67% 60% 57% 67% Not important 29% 33% 36% 25% Public transit is an affordable way to travel and transit riders save thousands of $ when they forego owning a car and rely on transit for most trips. Improving public transit in [CITY] would allow area riders to realize these savings. (Q12) Very important 28% 29% 22% 35% Total important 65% 64% 62% 74% Not important 31% 29% 35% 21% Providing services for transit-dependent residents is the most effective message in all four cities. 32
Public Transportation Schools of Thought: Region Now let s try something different. Please tell me if you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. Agree Public transportation in the [CITY] area should be substantial. Public transportation is an important element for encouraging the area s economic growth, and plays an important part in reducing traffic congestion and our area s environmental impact. (Q16) 32% strongly agree 15% strongly disagree 30% 66% Disagree Public transportation in the [CITY] area should be minimal, and primarily provide transportation for people who have no other options, such as low-income residents, the disabled and the elderly. (Q15) 25% strongly agree 26% strongly disagree 45% 51% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Region-wide, voters are more likely to agree that public transportation should be substantial, rather than minimal. 33
Public Transportation Schools of Thought: Region Key Subgroups Transportation should be substantial: Bend residents Women Voters age 18-64 Democrats and Independents Voters who have voted in three or fewer of the last four elections Public transit supporters Voters willing to pay a fee/tax increase for public transit Transportation should be minimal: Prineville residents Republicans Fee/tax increase opponents 34
Public Transportation Schools of Thought: Cities Public transportation in the [CITY] area should be substantial. Public transportation is an important element for encouraging the area s economic growth, and plays an important part in reducing traffic congestion and our area s environmental impact. (Q16) Bend Redmond Prineville Madras Strongly agree 33% 29% 18% 34% Total agree 68% 60% 51% 64% Total disagree 29% 34% 41% 27% Strongly disagree 15% 18% 19% 17% Public transportation in the [CITY] area should be minimal, and primarily provide transportation for people who have no other options, such as lowincome residents, the disabled and the elderly. (Q15) Strongly agree 22% 28% 32% 39% Total agree 48% 57% 64% 65% Total disagree 49% 37% 32% 30% Strongly disagree 29% 20% 16% 16% Differences by city: Bend voters lean toward substantial public transportation. Redmond voters are divided. Prineville voters lean toward minimal public transportation. Madras voters are divided. 35
Summary and Highlights 36
Summary and Highlights: Overview The transportation funding measures tested in these surveys are unlikely to pass in the Central Oregon region, or in any of the four individual cities, as economic factors weigh heavily on voters minds and lack of public transportation is not a salient issue. Overall, the current issue priority region-wide is creating jobs (the top issue for 54%), distantly followed by improving public education (20%). Improving public transportation is the most important issue for just 7% of respondents in the region. It is important to point out that a significant percentage of voters don t know how to rate their area s public transportation system, with 30% having no opinion region-wide. Further, lack of public transportation is not a leading issue for respondents regionwide, nor is it in any of the four cities. The fact that most voters are not concerned about lack of public transportation in their transportation routines, as well as the high percentage of voters who currently have no opinion about public transportation in their own community, is reflected in the lack of enthusiasm for the funding measures tested in the survey. 37
Summary and Highlights: Funding Options When given the chance to choose a preferred funding method for public transportation expansion and improvements, fully 52% of the region s voters prefer no tax or fee increases (this includes 33% who prefer re-allocation of funds from programs and services paid for by their city s general fund and 18% who prefer no increase). Looking specifically at a potential property tax increase, the survey tested two funding levels; a 35-cent per thousand/assessed value and a 20-cent option. Neither property tax option would be approved in an election held today, and the less expensive option would also face an uphill battle to pass in the near future, at least while economic issues are foremost on voters minds and public transportation is not perceived as a major problem. The survey also explored a potential utility fee option to fund transportation, described to respondents as a $2.75 per month utility fee, totaling $33 per year. This funding option is unpopular and generates majority opposition region-wide and among voters in all cities. 38
Summary and Highlights: Messaging and Moving Forward The most effective message overall is: Improving public transit in [CITY] will provide services for area residents who are disabled or elderly or are lower income who depend on transit service. This message is rated very important in transit funding voting decisions by more than 50% of all voters, region-wide and in each city. This message has potential to be leveraged in future COIC communications, including potential marketing and outreach expansion. Further, region-wide, voters are more likely to agree that public transportation should be substantial, rather than minimal. Public transportation in the [CITY] area should be substantial. Public transportation is an important element for encouraging the area s economic growth, and plays an important part in reducing traffic congestion and our area s environmental impact. COIC communications should leverage the following groups support for substantial public transportation into willingness to vote for funding measures for public transit: Bend residents, women, voters age 18-64, Democrats and Independents, voters who have voted in three or fewer of the last four elections and public transit supporters. 39
Contact Information www.moore-info.com www.facebook.com/mooreinformation Bob Moore bobm@moore-info.com Hans Kaiser hansk@moore-info.com Erik Iverson erik@moore-info.com 2130 SW Jefferson Street Suite 200 Portland, OR 97201 428 4 th Street Suite 8 Annapolis, MD 21403 1821 South Avenue West Suite 406 Missoula, MT 59801 503.221.3100 410.216.9856 406.317.1662 40