Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Monthly Update - November 2018 Fund Performance Cumulative Net Performance vs Index - Since Inception 100.0 % Net +72.5% 80.0 % 60.0 % 40.0 % 20.0 % S&P/ASX 200 +24.7% (20.0)% S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index Since inception (5 Jan 2015) At 30 November 2018 1 mth 3 mths 1 yr 2 yr p.a 3 yr p.a Annualised Cumulative Arowana Gross performance (2.3)% (7.8)% 23.7 % 27.1 % 22.4 % 18.9 % 97.3 % S&P/ASX200 Accumulation Index (2.2)% (9.3)% (1.0)% 6.5 % 7.7 % 5.8 % 24.7 % Gross outperformance (0.1)% 1.5 % 24.7 % 20.6 % 14.7 % 13.1 % 72.6 % Arowana Net performance* (2.0)% (8.2)% 15.7 % 21.8 % 17.6 % 14.9 % 72.5 % S&P/ASX200 Accumulation Index (2.2)% (9.3)% (1.0)% 6.5 % 7.7 % 5.8 % 24.7 % Net outperformance 0.2 % 1.1 % 16.7 % 15.3 % 9.9 % 9.1 % 47.8 % * Net of all fees and expenses, pre-tax Net Tangible Assets (NTA) per Share At 30 November 2018 $ NTA pre-tax on unrealised gains 1.21 NTA after tax on unrealised gains 1 1.19 1.The Company is required to estimate the tax that may arise should the entire portfolio be disposed of on the above date and show the result per share after deducting this theoretical provision. Any such tax would generate franking credits, whose value would not be lost but rather transferred to shareholders on payment of franked dividends. Top 5 Holdings (% of Gross Portfolio Value) Ticker % EAF.US GRAFTECH INTERNATIONAL LTD 8% VOC VOCUS GROUP LIMITED 7% BAL BELLAMYS AUSTRALIA LIMITED 4% TSGI.CA STARS GROUP INC 4% EHL EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED 3% Top 5 as % of Gross Portfolio 26% Contrarian Value Fund Limited ACN: 602 250 644
Monthly Update - November 2018 Monthly Newsletter In November the Fund recorded (2.0%) performance, net of all costs and fees, versus the S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index return of (2.2%). NTA per share was $1.21 as at 30 November 2018. During the month we initiated a position in Village Roadshow Limited (VRL). VRL came up on our radar when they announced a capital raise & asset sale in July to deleverage the Balance Sheet after a rough couple of years. VRL s theme parks including Movie World and Sea World - have been impacted by the October 2016 tragedy at neighbouring Dreamworld (owned by Ardent Leisure) when four people died on a ride. Earnings from VRL s theme park assets collapsed more than halving since FY16 as both attendance and pricing declined in the wake of the tragedy. On top of this, VRL s other main division Cinemas struggled because of a soft box office year in FY18. This was driven in large part by hit movies being released in clusters rather than being spaced out. VRL EBITDA contribution (AUD M) 47 51 54 68 75 76 79 81 80 50 81 96 87 87 89 95 87 88 56 41 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Theme Parks Other Studying international analogues gives us an indication for how earnings in VRL s theme park division may play out. In June 2015, Merlin Entertainments (MERL.LN) had an accident at their Alton Towers theme park on The Smiler rollercoaster leading to five people being seriously injured. As below, it took three years for operating earnings to revert to pre-accident levels after nearly halving in 2015. Contrarian Value Fund Limited ACN: 602 250 644
MERL: Theme Parks EBITDA (GBP M) 87 47 69 72 85 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E To catalyse the recovery, VRL is exercising the pricing power of these unique theme park assets. After reducing prices to stimulate demand following the Dreamworld accident, management raised prices for all categories in December 2017 - most significantly for the annual passes. However, VRL could not realise the full value of the price increases in 2H18 (Jan-Jun 2018). Customers shifted to buying cheaper & less inflated single day passes as discounted resellers were still in the market selling cheap annual tickets that didn t expire until June 2018. Management have now cancelled all deals with resellers and no tickets have been in the market since June. Early signs have indicated that the ticket mix shift has reversed, driving yield per person up ~30% year on year, whilst attendances have stayed relatively stable. The substantial operating leverage in the business means that the price increases should improve margins substantially. In the Cinemas division, which accounts for half of VRL s operating earnings, the soft result in FY18 was driven less by structural factors than perhaps the market thought. International box offices grew significantly last year, whilst Australian box office growth has rebounded sharply in 1H19 up ~15% year on year to November and well ahead of consensus expectations. Cost outs and the roll-out of a new concept called TopGolf should also boost earnings significantly over the medium term. We think this will more than offset potential weakness from the Film Distribution segment which is battling headwinds related to piracy and the growth in video on demand services. Recent strong trading and a deleveraged Balance Sheet, positions VRL well to refinance their debt in the coming months. This is likely to pave the way for management to reinstate their historically high dividend which could prove to be a catalyst for the stock to revert to more normalised valuation levels. 3
Fund Information ASX ticker Net Month's performance (2.0)% Last price (at 30 November 2018) $1.02 Pre-tax NTA $1.21 Premium/(Discount) to pre-tax NTA (15.7)% Fund AUM A$91.2m Market capitalisation A$71.8m Shares on issue 70,413,825 Current franked dividend yield 11.9% Gross/Net equities exposure 52.2%/32.6% Cash weighting 67.4% Geographic mandate (Equities) Global (45% ex Aust.) Fund Inception 5-Jan-15 INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE (Pre-tax, net of all costs) 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan 0.1% 1.9% 6.5% Feb (0.3)% (2.6)% (2.1)% Mar 2.9% (1.0)% (0.7)% Apr 0.7% 2.3% 3.5% 0.6% May 2.1% 11.8% 2.2% 9.1% Jun (1.4)% (3.6)% 3.5% 3.2% Jul 2.0% 5.3% 1.7% 5.6% Aug (0.2)% (6.8)% 3.0% 2.9% Sep 1.5% 0.6% 2.4% (1.4)% Oct 1.7% 2.3% 9.5% (5.0)% Nov (0.2)% (3.5)% 4.1% (2.0)% Dec (0.9)% (2.5)% (1.1)% Total 5.1% 7.7% 30.3% 16.9% Portfolio Information Currency Mix* 1% Market Cap Mix 3% 4% 13% 13% 52% 33% 7% 54% AUD USD CAD JPY EU *Currency mix includes cash and equities $0- $700m $700m - $1,000m $1,000m - $5,000 $5,000m + Cash Cash collateral 4
Exposure by Sector -5.0% 5.0% 15.0% 25.0% Industrials 12.8% Consumer Discretionary (4.9%) 6.5% Information Technology 2.5% Consumer Staples 9.1% Financials Materials Real Estate Health Care (1.4%) (1.5%) (1.6%) -% 1.8% Communication Services (0.4%) 9.7% Long Hedge Equities Exposure by Country Country Long Hedge Gross Net Australia 28.1% (9.8%) 37.9% 18.2% United States of America 7.8% - 7.8% 7.8% Canada 3.5% - 3.5% 3.5% Germany 3.0% - 3.0% 3.0% Total 42.4% (9.8%) 52.2% 32.6% 5
outperformance over all time periods 20% 15% 5% - (5%) () (15%) 1 mth 3 mths 6 mths 12 mths 3 Years p.a. (net) ASX 200 Accumulation Index Uncorrelated Returns: More positive months and negative correlation in months when market is down Incidence of Up Months 75.0 % 70.0 % 68.1 % Downside Participation -7% 0.5% 0.2% 3.0% 2.5% Upside Participation +92% 2.7% ASX 2.5% 65.0 % (0.5%) 2.0% (1.0%) 60.0 % 57.4 % (1.5%) 1.5% 55.0 % (2.0%) 1.0% 50.0 % ASX (2.5%) (3.0%) (2.5%) ASX 0.5% 6
Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Gross & Net Portfolio Exposures No Portfolio leverage 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 0% Important Information and Disclaimer While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this monthly update, neither Contrarian Value Fund Limited ( Fund ) nor A Management Pty Ltd ( Fund Manager ) is responsible for any errors nor misstatements. To the full extent permitted by law, no representation or warranty is made, and any and all liability is disclaimed, in relation to the accuracy or completeness of any statement, opinion, forecast or information contained in this monthly update. This monthly update has been prepared for the purposes of providing general information only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation with respect to the purchase or sale of any securities in the Fund or in which the Fund has invested, nor does it constitute financial product or investment advice, nor take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Returns can be volatile. Potential investors should seek independent advice as to the suitability of a particular investment to their investment need. 7