FINANCIAL MARKET OVERVIEW Asset Last Chg % Chg Commodity Gold / US Dollar FX Spot 1654.9-8.39-0.50% Silver / US Dollar FX Spot 30-0.16-0.53% Crude oil $ Spot 90.66-0.25-0.27% COMEX Copper $ 358.95-1.15-0.32% CRB Index 309.3 1.97 0.64% Equity BSE Sensex Index 19444.84 121.04 0.63% S&P CNX NIFTY 5908.35 38.25 0.65% Hang Seng Index 22666.59 46.81 0.21% Shanghai SE Composite Index 2233.252 27.35 1.24% Nikkei 225 Index 10395.18 72.20 0.70% DAX Index 7612.39-43.49-0.57% CAC 40 Index 3620.25-54.01-1.47% Dow Jones Industrial Average Index 12938.11-158.20-1.21% NASDAQ 100 Index 2606.36-26.58-1.01% Sao Paulo SE Bovespa Index 60952.08 536.13 0.89% Forex US Dollar / Indian Rupee FX Spot Rate 54.755-0.165-0.30% ICE Dollar Index 79.606-0.072-0.09% Euro / US Dollar FX Spot 1.3214-0.0021-0.16% US Dollar / Japanese Yen FX Spot Rate 86.01-0.08-0.09% UK Pound Sterling / US Dollar FX Spot Rate 1.6168 0.0071 0.44% Data s are as per previous day's close Data sources can & do produce bad ticks. Verify before use. GLOBAL UPDATE Commodities ended broadly lower in nervous trading on Friday as traders and investors followed last-ditch attempts by U.S. politicians to resolve a fiscal crisis before the yearend. The dollar rose, U.S. Treasury yields hit two-week lows and stocks on Wall Street fell for a fifth straight day as the president and his political rivals sought to avoid $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that take effect on Jan. 1. Fourteen of the 19 markets on the Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index settled in negative territory -- pushing the broad commodities gauge down half a percent on the day, although it rose slightly on the week due to modest gains in recent sessions. Market Focus US budget talks will be the main focus as many economists have warned that failure to reach a deal will tip the U.S. economy over a "fiscal cliff" and into possible recession.
PRECIOUS METALS Commodity Exchange Expiry Open High Low Close Net Chg % Chg Gold MCX Feb 30667 30704 30663 30697 34 0.11% Gold $ COMEX Feb $1,664.00 $1,667.00 $1,654.10 $1,655.90-7.8-0.47% Silver MCX Mar 57580 57680 57580 57660 144 0.25% Silver $ COMEX Mar $30.17 $30.37 $29.91 $29.98-26.5-0.88% Data s are as per previous day's close Commodity Unit Last % Chg Gold Spot $/Oz $1,654.90-0.50% Gold Spot-Mumbai Rs/10gms 30590 0.07% Silver Spot $/Oz $30.00-0.53% Silver Spot Mumbai Rs/Kg 57846 0.13% Commodity Unit AM Fix PM Fix London Gold Spot $/Oz $1,658.75 $1,657.50 London Silver Spot $/Oz - $30.15 55.60 55.50 55.40 55.30 55.20 55.10 55.00 54.90 Gold-Silver ($) Spot Gold fell on Friday, wiping out what would have been its first weekly gain since November, as traders priced the market lower while awaiting the outcome of lastditch U.S. budget talks ahead of a year-end deadline. Most markets were on tenterhooks as President Barack Obama met with congressional leaders from the Democratic and Republican parties at the White House to restart stalled talks on the budget. Spot gold and futures showed a modest loss on the week after Friday's decline wiped out gains built from Monday through Thursday. In Friday's session, volume in gold futures was around 60 percent below the 30-day average, making it one of the least traded markets on the 19-commodity Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index. Outlook $ Spot gold is not able to sustain above the $1660/Oz resistance of 200 DMA. Until that holds the bias for gold remains downwards and might once again fall till $1640/Oz. On MCX 30500 looks likely in February futures contract.
ENERGY Commodity Exchange Expiry Open High Low Close Net Chg % Chg Crude oil MCX Jan 4992 4998 4989 4996 1 0.02% Crude oil $ NYMEX Feb $91.15 $91.49 $90.32 $90.80-0.07-0.08% Natural gas MCX Jan 191.2 192.4 191.2 192 0.6 0.32% Natural gas $ NYMEX Feb $3.41 $3.49 $3.36 $3.47 0.115 3.43% Data s are as per previous day's close Commodity Unit Last % Chg WTI Spot $/bbl $90.66-0.27% Brent Spot $/bbl $110.85-0.27% 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 19.00 18.80 18.60 18.40 18.20 18.00 17.80 Brent-WTI ($) Spread Spot Gold-WTI Crude ($) Spread Oil prices settled lower on Friday after U.S. data showed a sharp rise in gasoline inventories and as investors worried that U.S. budget negotiators may not reach a deal in time to avert a fiscal crisis that could erode oil demand. Weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.8 million barrels last week, capping a five-week build of nearly 23 million barrels. U.S. crude futures fell 7 cents to settle at $90.80 a barrel. They were up 2.4 percent on the week. Brent crude fell 18 cents to settle at $110.62 a barrel. Trading in crude futures was thin during a holiday season lull, with Brent volumes around 40 percent below 30-day average levels, and U.S. crude volumes down by around half. Outlook MCX Crude oil Jan contract once again failed to close above the strong resistance of 5000.We might see a slight fall in prices till 4930 which should be a good buying level.
BASE METALS Commodity Exchange Expiry Open High Low Close Net Chg % Chg Copper MCX Feb 439.45 440 438.6 439.35 0.55 0.12% Copper $ COMEX Mar $360.25 $362.25 $358.60 $358.95-1.15-0.32% Zinc MCX Dec 111.3 111.8 111.3 111.65 0.3 0.26% Lead MCX Dec 126.55 126.8 126.5 126.7 0.05 0.04% Nickel MCX Dec 940.8 941.1 939.1 939.7-1 -0.11% Aluminum MCX Dec 111.6 111.8 111.6 111.75 0.15 0.13% Data s are as per previous day's close LME Inventory Commodity Change Copper UP 50 Zinc DOWN 1075 Lead DOWN 4250 Nickel UP 372 Aluminium DOWN 5625 16 15 14 13 12 11 MCX Lead Zinc Spread Copper fell slightly on Friday on a stronger dollar and uncertainty over the outcome of a last-chance round of U.S. budget talks, but signs that top consumer China's economy is recovering limited losses. The metal was also supported by reports that workers at the worlds biggest copper mine, Chile's Escondida, had rejected an early pay offer, although current contracts remain in force until June next year. There were signs the economy in China is steadily recovering, with a Reuter s survey showing the country's factory activity this month probably expanded at its fastest pace in eight months. LME Copper fell almost 2 percent last week and is up just 4 percent so far this year, while threemonth zinc has risen 12 percent. Outlook On MCX copper looks to trade in a range of 442-432 until 444 holds on the upside. On the lower side support is pegged at 427.5 below which the metal might give a steep fall.
WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR Event Country Date Time Unit Period Poll Prior HSBC Mfg PMI Final China 31-Dec-12 7:15 AM Dec 50.90 CPI prelim mm Germany 2-Jan-13 5:30 AM % May -0.1 HSBC Markit Mfg PMI India 2-Jan-13 10:30 AM Dec 53.7 Markit/ADACI Mfg PMI Italy 2-Jan-13 2:13 PM Dec 45.3 45.1 Markit Mfg PMI France 2-Jan-13 2:18 PM Dec 44.6 44.6 Markit/BME Mfg PMI Germany 2-Jan-13 2:23 PM Dec 46.3 46.3 Markit Mfg PMI Eurozone 2-Jan-13 2:28 PM Dec 46.3 46.3 Markit Mfg PMI Final US 2-Jan-13 7:28 PM Dec 54.2 Construction spending mm US 2-Jan-13 8:30 PM % Nov 0.6 1.4 ISM Manufacturing PMI US 2-Jan-13 8:30 PM Dec 50.2 49.5 Unemployment rate sa Germany 3-Jan-13 2:25 PM % Dec 6.9 6.9 Retail sales mm real Germany 4-Jan-13 12:30 PM % Nov 0.8-2.8 CPI (EU norm) prelim yy Italy 4-Jan-13 3:30 PM % Dec 2.4 2.6 Non Farm Payrolls US 4-Jan-13 8:30 PM Factory Orders US 4-Jan-13 10:00 PM ISM Non Mfg Index US 4-Jan-13 10:00 PM Source:Reuters
WEEKLY TECHNICALS Copper Copper Feb future contract on MCX traded sideways to down for the third straight week and moving ahead some more downside can be seen towards 434 which can be used as good buying opportunity. The RSI is flat but sustaining above the middle line is signifying some strength in prices. First resistance for the red metal is at 444 and sustained close above the same will indicate further positive move for the counter. Strong support for the metal is at 427.5 and sustained close below the same will signify reversal in trend for near term. Conclusion: Dip towards 434 can be used as good buying opportunity with a profit objective of 442. But all long positions should be exited if it closes below 427.5.
SWING LEVELS Commodity Exchange Expiry Close Trend** S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 PRECIOUS METALS Gold MCX Feb 30697 30631 30647 30672 30688 30713 30729 30754 Gold M MCX Jan 30436 30277 30315 30375 30413 30473 30511 30571 Gold $ COMEX Feb 1655.9 1638.10 1646.10 1651.00 1659.00 1663.90 1671.90 1676.80 Silver MCX Mar 57660 57500 57540 57600 57640 57700 57740 57800 Silver $ COMEX Mar 29.98 29.35 29.63 29.80 30.08 30.26 30.54 30.71 Silver M MCX Feb 57700 57454 57512 57606 57664 57758 57816 57910 ENERGIES Crude oil MCX Jan 4996 4982 4985 4991 4994 5000 5003 5009 Crude oil $ NYMEX Feb 90.80 89.08 89.70 90.25 90.87 91.42 92.04 92.59 Natural gas MCX Jan 192.00 190.13 190.67 191.33 191.87 192.53 193.07 193.73 Natural gas $ NYMEX Feb 3.47 3.26 3.31 3.39 3.44 3.52 3.57 3.64 BASE METALS Copper MCX Feb 439.35 437.23 437.92 438.63 439.32 440.03 440.72 441.43 Copper $ COMEX Mar 3.59 3.54 3.56 3.58 3.60 3.61 3.64 3.65 Zinc MCX Dec 111.65 110.87 111.08 111.37 111.58 111.87 112.08 112.37 Lead MCX Dec 126.70 126.23 126.37 126.53 126.67 126.83 126.97 127.13 Nickel MCX Dec 939.70 936.83 937.97 938.83 939.97 940.83 941.97 942.83 Aluminum MCX Dec 111.75 111.43 111.52 111.63 111.72 111.83 111.92 112.03 Data s are as per previous session's close Data sources can & do produce bad ticks. Verify before use. ** Trend is just a market indicator as per the previous close and is not an indication to buy or sell. Disclaimer This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker Private Limited (hereinafter referred as MOCBPL) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. The report is based upon information from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. MOCBPL or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. MOCBPL or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. MOCBPL and/or its Group Companies, their Directors, affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise in the Securities/Commodities and other investment products mentioned in this report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. MOCBPL reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time.