Using projections to manage your programs
To project total provider reimbursements To do what ifs based on caseloads or other metrics To project amounts of admin & support available for spending
Based on the average monthly rate in month served (reimbursements/number of children served) Uses 5 year history to determine seasonal trends Has multiple variables to accomplish what-ifs, and account for anomalies Is adapted to the different contracts based on the drivers of change. Combines data from program software and accounting software.
General AP Month JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN -10-10 -10-10 -10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Caseload 500 490 480 470 460 450 450 450 450 450 450 450 X X X X X X X X X X X X Avg Utilization 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% = = = = = = = = = = = = Paid Caseload 450 441 432 423 414 405 405 405 405 405 405 405 Stage 2 Month JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN New Enrollments(A) 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 Time Outs ( B ) 20 25 20 25 10 15 20 20 30 50 20 15 Attrition ( C) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 A A A A A A A A A A A Caseload 700 715 735 750 780 805 825 845 855 845 865 890 Avg Utilization 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% = = = = = = = = = = = = Paid Caseload 630 644 662 675 702 725 743 761 770 761 779 801 Stage 3 Month JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Time Outs ( A ) 20 25 20 25 10 15 20 20 30 50 20 Attrition ( B) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 A A A A A A A A A A A Caseload 700 700 705 705 710 700 695 695 695 705 735 735 Avg Utilization 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% = = = = = = = = = = = = Paid Caseload 630 630 635 635 639 630 626 626 626 635 662 662 Utilization is % of children that actually have services an average compared to the total of children approved for services.
550 5 Year Seaonal Montly Average 115.00% 500 110.00% Abg Monthly Rate 450 400 350 105.00% 100.00% 95.00% 90.00% 9-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 Seas Avg 300 85.00% 250 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 80.00%
Description Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Total/Avg Seas Avg 113.88% 109.06% 91.55% 91.32% 94.60% 100.64% 95.48% 96.95% 100.37% 103.12% 98.61% 104.42% 100% X X X X X X X X X X X X Avg Rate Annual 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 = = = = = = = = = = = = Monthly Avg Rate 569.42 545.28 457.74 456.60 472.99 503.18 477.40 484.75 501.87 515.62 493.04 522.09 500 X X X X X X X X X X X X Caseload Monthly 440 400 400 400 387 398 395 405 410 420 430 440 410 = = = = = = = = = = = = Provider Reimbursement 250,544 218,113 183,098 182,641 183,048 200,265 188,574 196,325 205,768 216,559 212,009 229,720 2,466,664 Caseload Rate Months Total What if based on average rate annualized 410 X 500 X 12 2,460,000 Difference from seasonal model: 6,664 What if based in avg first 3 months 410 X 524.15 X 12 2,578,810 Difference from seasonal model: (112,146)
Summary Contract 65 66 69 71 77 Totals Contract Amount 2,563,357 3,068,309 4,164,478 5,500,000 1,105,853 16,401,997 Budget 2,563,357 3,068,309 4,164,478 5,500,000 1,105,853 16,401,997 Provider Budget 2,114,770 2,531,355 3,435,694 4,125,000 774,097 12,980,916 Provider Projection: 2,802,332 2,525,597 2,942,440 4,139,013 776,470 13,185,852 Proj % Actual (PP/Earnings) 84.77% 82.32% 80.11% 75.26% 70.23% 80.39% Proj EOY TTL Earnings 3,305,690 3,068,164 3,672,785 5,499,957 1,105,632 16,652,227 Budget Under/(Over): (742,333) 145 491,693 43 221 (250,230) NP Earn Var. Under/(Over) 125,137 25,631 (1,561) 18,727 21,914 189,849 Projected Indirect 244,866 227,271 272,058 407,404 81,899 1,233,498
66 On Times Variance Thousands 30 10 (10) (30) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
15-16 Average Monthly Child Care Costs Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Average Original (A) 536 480 461 472 470 459 465 449 462 473 479 469 473 Acutal (B) 511 448 469 496 491 498 492 495 499 508 522 504 494 (B-A) (24) (32) 8 24 21 39 27 45 37 35 44 35 21 % -4.5% -6.6% 1.7% 5.0% 4.5% 8.4% 5.7% 10.1% 8.0% 7.4% 9.1% 7.4% 4.5% Analysis Acutal Adjusted for Deviations 3.0%A 2015 Overall RMRC % Increase 4.5%B 2016 Overall RMRC % Increase 16.0%C Projected Increase %(A/B) X C = 10.6% To determine RMRC increase first did comparison of original projections for average monthly child care compared to the actual. Since last year had an increase in Oct, determine the error margin based on first three months. Then divide the error margin by the overall RMRC % increase and multiply that by the RMRC overall % increase based on the schedule difference between last year and proposed increase in January.
Average Rate Planned vs Actual $600 Axis Title $500 $400 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Planned Rate 539.34 512.23 480.61 497.26 502.45 508.12 495.14 482.15 507.06 522.04 514.62 522.98 Actual Rate 551 538 481 497 502 508 550 535 563 579 571 581
Determine Caseload Use Historical Data to Determine Baselines Average monthly rates Seasonal trends Usage compared to enrolled children Use periodic error checking to gauge projections accuracy Summarize to look at big picture