Colorado Trans II Referendum Survey April 8 th - 9 th, 2015 1
About the Survey 2 Statewide, 704 interviews of likely 2015 general election voters. Margin of error of +/-3.69%. Combination of landline automated dialing and live cell phone sample Conducted April 8 th 9 th, 2015. Paid for by the Fix North I-25 Business Alliance, an initiative of area Chambers of Commerce created through the Northern Colorado Legislative Alliance.
Key Findings
Key Findings 4 TRANS II funding approach: 51% support / 34% oppose / 15 undecided. Support increases to 61% and opposition decreases to 27% when respondents were given additional information about the ballot measure. Alternative approaches: 52% support increasing the state gas tax, while 54% oppose increasing license and car registration fees by $20. Support for increasing the state gas tax is likely to drop below 50% when voters are informed of the specifics of the tax amount.
5 Key Findings Three out of four voters view transportation funding as an issue that should be addressed as a top priority in the state s current budget, and not addressed by creating new fees or raising taxes. Eight out of ten voters would like to see a portion of the state budget set aside for large, economically significant transportation projects. Nine out of ten voters view the state s roads, bridges and infrastructure as in need of repair. Among the 34% of voters who opposed the TRANS II approach, 79% agree with this view.
Ballot Test
Trans II Referendum Ballot Test As you may know, there may be a question on the ballot this November regarding funding for transportation projects across the state. I am now going to read to you the language of the possible ballot question: Shall state of Colorado debt be increased up to 3.5 billion with a maximum repayment cost of 6 billion, with no increase in any taxes, for the purpose of addressing critical, priority transportation needs in the state by financing transportation projects that qualify for federal funding through the issuance of revenue anticipation notes and shall earnings on the proceeds of such notes constitute a voter-approved revenue change? Now that you have heard the ballot question, if the election were being held today would you vote YES to approve the ballot question or would you vote NO to reject the ballot question? 7
Trans II Referendum Ballot Test 8 34% 15% 51% 48% 39% 13% 54% 29% 17% MEN WOMEN YES, APPROVE NO, REJECT UNDECIDED YES, APPROVE NO, REJECT UNDECIDED 62% 44% 43% 50% 25% 14% 13% 31% 18% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED YES, APPROVE NO, REJECT UNDECIDED
Trans II Referendum Ballot Test 9 62% 54% 34% 42% 42% 48% 37% 54% 31% 23% 16% 12% 16% 16% 15% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 60% 21% 19% 54% 45% 42% 35% 12% 13% 49% 36% 14% 46% 40% 14% 55% 51% 31% 28% 18% 17% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 YES, APPROVE NO, REJECT UNDECIDED
Voter Opinion on Colorado s Roads, Bridges and Infrastructure
11 Please tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statements Colorado s roads, bridges and infrastructure are in desperate need of maintenance and repair. Colorado s roads are too congested and are in dire need of additional lanes and capacity. 8% 3% 89% 15% 4% 81% TOTAL AGREE TOTAL DISAGREE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED TOTAL AGREE TOTAL DISAGREE UNSURE NO OPINION REFUSED
As you may know, if approved the transportation funds can only be spent on 33 different transportation and highway projects across the state. Would you be more likely to support the ballot measure if one of the transportation and highway projects has a direct impact on your daily commute or residential area? 12 38% 15% 47% 57% 49% 35% 45% 41% 41% 36% 37% 49% 48% 42% 37% 39% 37% 16% 14% 7% 22% 15% 18% 15% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 YES, WOULD NO, WOULD NOT UNSURE REFUSED
Message Testing Trans II Referendum
I am now going to read to you some more information about the ballot question. After hearing the information please tell me if you are more likely to support or oppose the ballot question, or if it makes no difference in your decision. Let s get started 14
15 This approach to increase funding for highway and transportation needs would not increase taxes on Colorado residents. 26% 5% 56% 59% 58% 12% 58% 24% 28% 26% 14% 10% 11% 6% 3% 4% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED 64% 59% 59% 56% 54% 55% 55% 28% 29% 25% 23% 29% 24% 23% 5% 3% 10% 3% 9% 6% 15% 6% 11% 5% 17% 4% 16% 6% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT MORE LIKELY TO OPPOSE NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE REFUSED
16 Supporters of the ballot measure say it is important to approve the funding sooner rather than later to take advantage of very low interest rates, which will reduce the state s borrowing costs. 25% 3% 13% 58% 68% 54% 53% 29% 25% 22% 18% 14% 3% 7% 4% 4% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED 62% 62% 57% 52% 47% 65% 62% 29% 31% 23% 24% 26% 23% 21% 13% 11% 15% 16% 14% 2% 3% 2% 12% 14% 4% 8% 2% 1% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT MORE LIKELY TO OPPOSE NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE REFUSED
If approved, the spending of the transportation funds by the Colorado Department of Transportation would be subject to disclosure requirements that will make certain the funds are spent in the most cost effective manner. 17 8% 23% 3% 66% 64% 76% 58% 31% 22% 18% 11% 3% 3% 2% 9% 3% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED 80% 70% 62% 62% 62% 62% 66% 25% 24% 26% 23% 26% 23% 14% 5% 1% 5% 1% 10% 4% 7% 5% 13% 3% 9% 2% 7% 4% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT MORE LIKELY TO OPPOSE NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE REFUSED
If approved, the new transportation funding would create thousands of direct and indirect jobs across the state. 24% 3% 76% 63% 9% 65% 18 57% 10% 29% 17% 3% 6% 1% 9% 25% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED 3% 69% 64% 62% 65% 57% 66% 72% 22% 29% 24% 25% 26% 21% 18% 6% 2% 5% 2% 12% 3% 7% 3% 9% 8% 11% 2% 10% 0% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT MORE LIKELY TO OPPOSE NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE REFUSED
Would you be more likely to support the ballot measure if one of the 33 transportation and highway projects was improving congestion and travel times along the I-25 North Corridor between Longmont and Fort Collins? 19 37% 4% 25% 34% 29% 28% 40% 43% 41% 31% 30% 22% 23% 3% 3% 5% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED 35% 24% 39% 51% 15% 29% 17% 34% 46% 44% 18% 33% 16% 34% 44% 31% 26% 41% 38% 24% 34% 3% 5% 3% 5% 5% 2% 3% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 MORE LIKELY TO SUPPORT MORE LIKELY TO OPPOSE NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE REFUSED
Informed Trans II Referendum Ballot Test
21 Trans II Referendum Informed Ballot Test Now that you have heard some information about the potential ballot question to increase the Colorado debt by 3.5 billion dollars, with no increase in any taxes, for the purpose of addressing critical transportation needs across the state, if the election were being held today would you vote YES to approve the ballot question or would you vote NO to reject the ballot question?
22 Informed Trans II Referendum Ballot Test 27% 12% 61% 59% 32% 63% 10% 22% 15% YES, APPROVE NO, REJECT UNDECIDED MEN WOMEN YES, APPROVE NO, REJECT UNDECIDED 73% 52% 60% 36% 17% 12% 9% 24% 16% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED YES, APPROVE NO, REJECT UNDECIDED
Informed Trans II Referendum Ballot Test 23 74% 50% 54% 60% 65% 20% 37% 6% 14% 29% 30% 22% 17% 10% 13% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ YES, APPROVE NO, REJECT UNDECIDED 73% 56% 58% 58% 58% 61% 68% 21% 6% 27% 29% 30% 30% 27% 17% 14% 13% 12% 12% 22% 9% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 YES, APPROVE NO, REJECT UNDECIDED
Voter Opinion on Alternative Measures
25 State Gas Tax Would you support or oppose an increase in the state gas tax to fund transportation projects across the state? 3% 49% 49% 55% 45% 52% 41% 2% 4% MEN WOMEN 66% 44% 54% 49% 47% 31% 2% 4% 4% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION
26 State Gas Tax Would you support or oppose an increase in the state gas tax to fund transportation projects across the state? 49% 51% 55% 41% 52% 47% 55% 54% 39% 43% 0% 5% 1% 6% 3% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 67% 51% 49% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% 45% 55% 40% 51% 48% 28% 4% 0% 4% 3% 6% 6% 1% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION
27 $20 Fee Increase Would you support or oppose a $20 dollar increase in license and car registration fees to increase funding for transportation projects? 54% 4% 42% 39% 58% 44% 51% 3% 5% MEN WOMEN 35% 63% 52% 55% 43% 39% 2% 5% 6% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION
28 $20 Fee Increase Would you support or oppose a $20 dollar increase in license and car registration fees to increase funding for transportation projects? 59% 41% 41% 56% 38% 60% 35% 58% 43% 52% 1% 3% 2% 7% 5% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 52% 46% 51% 44% 32% 60% 41% 54% 25% 70% 48% 49% 50% 49% 2% 5% 7% 4% 5% 3% 1% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE NO OPINION
Voter Opinion on CDOT
30 CDOT Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Colorado Department of Transportation, also known as CDOT, is doing? 19% 7% 72% 76% 74% 22% MEN 16% 6% 8% WOMEN 74% 78% 70% 19% 7% 15% 22% 7% 8% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNAFFILIATED TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE / NO OPINION
31 CDOT Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Colorado Department of Transportation, also known as CDOT, is doing? 78% 77% 78% 69% 64% 16% 31% 21% 14% 15% 6% 9% 5% 9% 7% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 77% 73% 79% 78% 69% 68% 74% 17% 23% 17% 22% 24% 19% 6% 4% 9% 11% 5% 10% 8% 7% CD 1 CD 2 CD 3 CD 4 CD 5 CD 6 CD 7 TOTAL APPROVE TOTAL DISAPPROVE UNSURE / NO OPINION
32 The Bottom Line Without question, voters want transportation projects moving forward regardless of whether they are impacted personally. They overwhelmingly view our roads and bridges in need of repair, they want something done about it, and they view TRANS II as a viable approach.
33 For more information: Magellan Strategies - 303-861-8585 David Flaherty: Dflaherty@MagellanStrategies.com Ryan Winger: RWinger@MagellanStrategies.com