CREDIT OPINION Valiant Bank AG Update to credit analysis Update Summary We assign A1/P-1 deposit ratings to Valiant Bank AG (Valiant). We also assign an Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA), an Adjusted BCA and an A3(cr)/P-(cr) Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment to the bank. RATINGS Valiant Bank AG Domicile Berne, Switzerland Long Term Debt Withdrawn Type Senior Unsecured Dom Curr Outlook Not Assigned Long Term Deposit A1 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. The ratings reflect (1) the bank's BCA and Adjusted BCA; and () the result of our Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, which takes into account the severity of loss faced by the different liability classes in resolution, and which provides two notches of uplift to Valiant's deposit ratings but no uplift to its CR Assessment. The BCA takes into account Valiant's generally low-risk profile, improved capitalisation, reduced reliance on confidence-sensitive market funding and strengthened, yet limited, liquidity buffer. However, the BCA also incorporates the bank's moderate level of profitability. Profits are likely to remain compressed in the current low interest rate environment, and the bank's ability to improve operating efficiency in a competitive domestic banking market remains limited. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard - Key financial ratios Valiant (BCA: ) Median -rated banks 18% Contacts Carola Schuler +49.69.773.766 MD-Banking carola.schuler@moodys.com Solvency Factors Alexander Hendricks, +49.69.773.779 CFA Associate Managing Director alexander.hendricks@moodys.com % 14% 1% 15% 1% 8% 1% 6% 4% % 5%.5% 15.5%.3% 13.8% 13.% Capital: Tangible Common Equity/Risk-Weighted Assets Profitability: Net Income/ Tangible Assets Funding Structure: Market Funds/ Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources: Liquid Banking Assets/Tangible Banking Assets % % Asset Risk: Problem Loans/ Gross Loans Solvency Factors (LHS) Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Liquidity Factors (RHS) Liquidity Factors Andrea Wehmeier +49.69.773.78 VP-Senior Analyst andrea.wehmeier@moodys.com 5% 16%
Credit strengths» Valiant's asset quality is high, and benefits from the high granularity of its loan book and limited exposure to hot spot regional real estate markets.» Capitalisation is solid, which helps it withstand shocks.» Valiant's refinancing is based on solid deposit funding, with reduced reliance on confidence-sensitive market funding. Credit challenges» The low interest rate environment is stressing the bank's profitability and efficiency, limiting its capacity to bolster its adequate capitalisation, despite improvements.» The bank displays an adequate-only liquidity buffer. Outlook» Valiant's ratings carry a stable outlook, reflecting our expectation that the bank's risk profile will remain unchanged over the outlook period of 1 to 18 months. Management's initiatives to improve efficiency and profitability are expected to yield benefits only in the medium to long term. Factors that could lead to an upgrade» An upgrade of Valiant's ratings is likely, in the event of (1) an upgrade of the bank's BCA, or () an increase in uplift resulting from our Advanced LGF analysis.» The BCA could be upgraded in the event of (1) further sustainable increases in the bank's capitalisation, which would provide additional protection to its creditors; () a sustainable improvement in the bank's profitability levels, together with a reduction in its susceptibility to interest rate movements; or (3) a significant improvement in the bank's liquidity profile.» Valiant's deposit ratings could further be upgraded if the amount of its senior unsecured debt or its subordinated debt classes rises substantially, thus providing higher protection to depositors, which could lead to one additional notch of uplift. Factors that could lead to a downgrade» A downgrade of Valiant's ratings could be triggered following (1) a downgrade of the BCA, or () a reduction in uplift resulting from our Advanced LGF analysis.» Downward pressure on the BCA could arise from (1) a significant deterioration in asset quality beyond our expectations, for example, owing to a marked slowdown in the Swiss real estate market or a deterioration in the Swiss Macro Profile; () an unexpected and significant increase in the bank's risk appetite; (3) acquisitions that strain key financial ratios and pose heightened execution risks; or (4) a weakening in the bank's liquidity position.» The rating uplift from our LGF analysis could be strained if the volume of the bank's deposits falls significantly. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
Key indicators Exhibit Valiant Bank AG (Consolidated Financials) [1] Total Assets (CHF billion) Total Assets (EUR billion) Total Assets (USD billion) Tangible Common Equity (CHF billion) Tangible Common Equity (EUR billion) Tangible Common Equity (USD billion) Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) Net Interest Margin (%) PPI / Average RWA (%) Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) Cost / Income Ratio (%) Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Gross Loans / Due to Customers (%) 1-17 1-16 1-15 1-14 6 3 7 1.9 1.6..4 15.5 5.1 1.1 1..3 66.5 13.8 13. 16.1 6 4 6 1.8 1.7 1.8.5 14.6 5.5 1.1.9.4 67.3 1.1 13.3 11.3 5 3 5 1.8 1.6 1.8.6 14. 7.7 1. 1..4 66.7 11.4 11.7 11.5 5 1 5 1.7 1.4 1.7.6 13. 7.4 1.1.7.3 7.9 1.8 1. 11.1 1-13 CAGR/Avg.3 5 1 8 1.7 1.4 1.9.8 1.6 1.1 1..5. 8.8 14.7 1.4 14.7 1.4.44-1.14 3.34 4.54 1.4.65 14.6 7.5 1.15.86.35 7.85 13.5 1.55 13.5 [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; LOCAL GAAP [3] May include rounding differences due to scale of reported amounts [4] Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) based on time period presented for the latest accounting regime [5] Simple average of periods presented for the latest accounting regime. [6] Simple average of Basel III periods presented Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Profile Valiant Bank AG, which includes Valiant Holding AG (Valiant Holding or the group), is a medium-sized, regional universal bank that operates in the central and northwestern parts of Switzerland. Through acquisitions, the bank has become one of Switzerland's largest regional banks, with total combined assets of CHF8 billion as of 31 March 18. Valiant has a regional network of around 91 branches. The bank focuses its offerings on lending, savings, investments and payment services. The bank holds, among others, joint ventures and strategic partnerships with Zuercher Kantonalbank (Aaa stable/aaa stable, a)1, Swisscom AG (A stable) and PostFinance. For more information, please see our Swiss Banking System Profile. Weighted Macro Profile of Very StrongValiant is focused on the Swiss market, and therefore, has an assigned Macro Profile of Very Strong-, at the same level as the Macro Profile of Switzerland. Detailed credit considerations Valiant's asset quality benefits from the high granularity of its loan book and its limited exposure to hot spot regional real estate markets We assign an Asset Risk score to Valiant, three notches below the Macro-Adjusted historical score of a. The assigned Asset Risk score takes into account risks from the high stock of mortgage loans compared with Valiant's total loan volume (93% as of year-end 17), as well as risks from persistently low interest rates. The score also captures the group's relatively low susceptibility to potential shocks from the domestic real estate market or from a prolonged period of weaker economic growth in Switzerland. Since early 1, and following a period of high acquisitive growth, Valiant has curbed growth in mortgage loans, resulting in a mortgage loan book amounting to CHF1.1 billion as of year-end 17. Furthermore, as of year-end 17, the stock of problem loans declined (to CHF99 million) to a consistently very low level of.4% of customer loans (.5% in 16 and.7% in 15). We believe that Valiant will be able to manage the pace and extent of a potential deterioration in its strong asset-quality indicators, further supported by its mortgage loan exposures being domiciled in regions that do not show signs of overheating. 3
In 17, Valiant Holding acquired Triba Partner Bank AG (Triba). Given the bank's small size (CHF1. billion as of year-end 17) and its similar business profile, the impact of the acquisition on Valiant's credit is limited. As of year-end 17, the group's balance sheet grew 5.6% to CHF7.6 billion from year-end 16, reflecting the consolidation effect of Triba. Rising capitalisation levels increase distance to regulatory intervention We assign an Capital score to Valiant, two notches below the Macro-Adjusted historical score. The increased distance to regulatory intervention, as well as the bank's challenges with regard to capital generation through profit retention (a key rating restraint), is reflected in the assigned score. We expect capital ratios to stabilise, with the bank growing further, although cautiously. The improving capitalisation in the past was based on earnings retention outpacing the bank's growth in assets and risk-weighted assets. As a Category 3 institution (in accordance with the Swiss Financial Market Supervision Authority, FINMA), Valiant Holding's total capital ratio requirement was 1.% as of 31 December 17. As of 3 March 18, the group's reported total capital ratio stood at 16.1% (17: 17.%; 16: 17.3%), reflecting the call of the Tier instrument and the effects of the Triba integration. The low interest rate environment is straining profitability and efficiency We assign a ba Profitability score to Valiant, in line with the Macro-Adjusted historical score. The current low interest rate environment is a challenge because of the short-term nature of Valiant's deposit-rich funding franchise and the group's exposure to generally longer-term assets, mainly mortgages. As a result, Valiant's profitability metrics stand at the lower end of the range for those of its regional Swiss peers. Despite its relatively low-risk balance sheet, the bank's gross profitability stabilised during 15-17. In 17, Valiant Holding reported a consolidated net profit of CHF119. million, up 1.4% from a year earlier. The results were marked by an increase in net interest income (up.% from a year earlier) because the decline in interest expenses more than offset the decline in interest income. Moreover, the bank's fee and commission income increased 4.6% to CHF6.3 million. The bank's net income was further supported by low risk charges of CHF.6 million, stable results from participations and higher provisions for general banking risks as of year-end 17. Moreover, the bank's operating expenses increased by.3% to CHF6. million in 17, mainly driven by integration costs after the Triba acquisition. In first-quarter 18, the group's net profit increased by 9.3% to CHF6. million from CHF3.8 million as of the end of March 17, while its net interest income was higher at CHF75. million (up 4.8%). The group's higher fee and commission income, however, was offset by higher operating expenses, with risk costs remaining low. We believe that, over the longer term (and provided that management's initiatives are successful and can stabilise the group's franchise), the bank's profitability could further increase from its current levels owing to efficiency gains, lower IT and related amortisation costs, and further synergies related to the successful optimisation of its regional banking franchise. Refinancing is based on solid deposit funding, although the bank also relies on confidence-sensitive funding sources We assign an Funding Structure score to Valiant, in line with the Macro-Adjusted historical score. The secured and longer-term nature of the bank's sourced market funds (mainly Pfandbriefe and covered bonds), as well as its stable client deposits, mitigate its vulnerability to an adverse scenario. Valiant's business model attracts large amounts of granular deposits, accounting for 67% of the total balance sheet as of Q1 18 (consolidated). However, loans constituted 85% of the group's balance sheet as of the same date. Likewise, the group's elevated loan-to-deposit ratio (17% as of Q1 18) implies some degree of wholesale funding. We further assign a ba Liquid Resources score (also in line with the Macro-Adjusted historical score), reflecting its liquid resources as a percentage of tangible banking assets of 13%. The bank maintains a generally conservative approach to managing liquidity, which allowed Valiant Holding to report CHF1. billion in financial investments, as well as CHF.4 billion in cash and CHF.3 billion interbank assets, as of Q1 18. 4
Support and structural considerations Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis Valiant is subject to Swiss banking regulations, which we consider an operational resolution regime. We, therefore, apply our Advanced LGF analysis, considering the risks faced by the different debt and deposit classes across the liability structure at failure. We assume residual tangible common equity of 3%, post-failure losses of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 5% runoff in junior wholesale deposits and a 5% runoff in preferred deposits, and assign a 1% probability to deposits being preferred to senior unsecured debt (as reflected in the de facto case in the waterfall below), thereby reflecting depositor preference by law in Switzerland. For Valiant's junior deposits, our Advanced LGF analysis indicates a very low loss given failure, leading us to position their Preliminary Rating Assessment two notches above the Adjusted BCA. Government support considerations We believe that the probability of government support for Valiant in the event of stress is low, given the bank's relatively small national market shares in key banking products and its relative importance to the country's banking system. Therefore, Valiant's deposit ratings do not benefit from government support uplift. Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment CR Assessments are opinions of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails and are distinct from debt and deposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than both the likelihood of default and the expected financial loss, and () apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or deposit instruments. The CR Assessment is an opinion of the counterparty risk related to a bank's covered bonds, contractual performance obligations (servicing), derivatives (for example, swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities. Valiant's CR Assessments are positioned at A3(cr)/P-(cr) The bank's CR Assessment is positioned at the level of its Adjusted BCA. This positioning reflects the depositor preference in Switzerland, and the resultant rank ordering of Counterparty Risk exposures below deposits and the moderate volume of instruments ranking below Counterparty Risk exposures, such as senior debt and equity, which are insufficient to reduce the expected loss to a level that would warrant uplift from the Adjusted BCA. The CR Assessment does not benefit from any government support. Methodology and scorecard The principal methodology we use in rating Valiant Bank was the Banks methodology, published in June 18. About Moody's Bank Scorecard Our scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read in conjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our scorecard may materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strong divergence). The scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down to reflect conditions specific to each rated entity. 5
Rating methodology and scorecard factors Exhibit 3 Valiant Bank AG Macro Factors Weighted Macro Profile Very Strong - Factor Historic Macro Ratio Adjusted Score Credit Trend Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver # Solvency Asset Risk Problem Loans / Gross Loans.5% a Sector concentration Quality of assets Capital TCE / RWA 15.5% aa Risk-weighted capitalisation Expected trend Profitability Net Income / Tangible Assets.3% ba ba Return on assets Expected trend Extent of market funding reliance Expected trend Combined Solvency Score Liquidity Funding Structure Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 13.8% Liquid Resources Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 13.% ba ba Combined Liquidity Score Financial Profile Business Diversification Opacity and Complexity Corporate Behavior Total Qualitative Adjustments Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Scorecard Calculated BCA range Assigned BCA Affiliate Support notching Adjusted BCA Balance Sheet in-scope (CHF million) 7,87 18,3 13,344 4,688 365 15 793 6,47 Other liabilities Deposits Preferred deposits Junior Deposits Senior unsecured bank debt Junior subordinated bank debt Equity Total Tangible Banking Assets 6 1% Stock of liquid assets Quality of liquid assets Aaa a-ba % in-scope 6.8% 68.% 5.5% 17.7% 1.4%.6% 3.% 1% at-failure (CHF million) 9,77 16,193 1,677 3,516 365 % at-failure 793 6,47 3.% 1% 34.3% 61.3% 48.% 13.3% 1.4%
Debt class Counterparty Risk Assessment Deposits Instrument class Counterparty Risk Assessment Deposits De Jure waterfall De Facto waterfall Notching LGF Assigned Additional Preliminary LGF notching Rating Instrument Sub- Instrument SubDe Jure De Facto Notching Guidance notching Assessment volume + ordination volume + ordination vs. subordination subordination Adjusted BCA (cr) 17.7% 17.7% Loss Given Failure notching Additional Preliminary Rating Notching Assessment (cr) Government Support notching Local Currency Rating A3 (cr) A1 Foreign Currency Rating -A1 Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Ratings Exhibit 4 Category VALIANT BANK AG Outlook Bank Deposits Baseline Credit Assessment Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment Counterparty Risk Assessment Moody's Rating Stable A1/P-1 A3(cr)/P-(cr) Source: Moody's Investors Service 7
Endnotes 1 The ratings shown are Zuercher Kantonalbank s deposit rating and outlook, its senior unsecured debt rating and outlook, and its BCA. The rating shown is Swisscom's long-term issuer rating and outlook. 8
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Contacts Christina Holthaus Associate Analyst 1