ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST CONSUMER INDEX 2/5/6 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 5 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 7, 26 Consumer Confidence: the Buffeting Resumes Strong winds are buffeting consumer confidence: it s down again this week, resuming a month-long tempest powered by unusually unsettled economic views. The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index dropped by four points this week to -13 on its scale of +1 to -1. Week-to-week over the past month it s lost five points, regained four, flattened, and now lost four a rare ride in the 2-year history of this weekly survey. While the gyrations earlier in the past month occurred mainly in the West, this week the index fell similarly in the West (-7 points) and Midwest (-6) alike. And while the earlier changes occurred across the index, this week it s focused on views of the buying climate, now their worst since November and down seven points from where they started the year. ABC News/Washington Post CCI: Consumer Confidence Since 25-5 -1-15 -2-25 1/9/5 1/23/5 2/6/5 2/2/5 3/6/5 3/2/5 4/3/5 4/17/5 5/1/5 5/15/5 5/29/5 6/12/5 6/26/5 7/1/5 7/24/5 8/7/5 8/21/5 9/4/5 9/18/5 1/2/5 1/16/5 1/3/5 11/13/5 11/27/5 12/11/5 12/25/5 1/8/6 1/22/6 2/5/6 The ups and downs in confidence may reflect competing economic pressures. Incomes are up but home prices have softened. Gasoline has been moving sideways lately, but the reality of long-term $2.3 fuel may be sinking in (gas has been over $2 steadily for nearly
a year now). And inflation remains enough of a concern for the Fed to keep notching up interest rates. INDEX In addition to the buying climate, the ABC/Post index is based on Americans ratings of the current national economy and their personal finances. This week just 34 percent rate the buying climate positively, the fewest since Nov. 2. More, 4 percent, rate the economy positively, and as usual, many more, 56 percent, say their personal finances are in good shape. ABC News/Washington Post CCI Positive ratings of: This week Last week 25 avg. 2-yr.avg. National economy 4% 41 37 4 Buying climate 34 38 36 38 Personal finances 56 57 58 57 Consumer Comfort Index -13-9 -13-9 4 3 2 ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index Weekly tracking results since December 1985 1 Recession 3/1-1 Average -2-3 -4 Recession 7/9-5 -6 1988 1992 1996 2 24 TREND The CCI now matches its 25 average. It s down from -8 at the start of the year but up from its recent low, -23 when gas prices spiked after Hurricane Katrina last fall. The index has average -9 in weekly polls since December 1985, from a high of +38 in January 2 to a low of -5 in February 1992. ABC/Post CCI Today -13 Last week -9 Recent high -8 Jan. 8, 26 25 low -23 Sept. 18, 25 2
25 average -13 24 average -11 23 average -19 2 average +29 Best full year 1992 average -44 Worst full year Jan. 16, 2 +38 Record high Feb. 9, 1992-5 Record low Average since 12/85-9 WOBBLES The CCI s ups and downs the last four weeks totaling 13 points of updown change are not entirely unprecedented. The index sustained 15 points of up-anddown change in April 23 (up four, up five, up two, down four), 15 points of similar change over four weeks in April 1998 (up four, down five, up two, down four) and 14 points of up-and-down change over five weeks both in late 22 and mid 1993. (It s also had a few straight-line changes this large.) It doesn t happen often, but it happens. ABC News/Washington Post CCI: Positive Ratings of Individual Gauges Since December 1985 9 8 7 Personal Finances 6 5 Buying Climate 4 3 2 National Economy 1 8/24/86 5/24/87 2/21/88 11/2/88 8/27/89 5/27/9 2/24/91 11/24/91 8/23/92 5/23/93 2/2/94 11/2/94 8/2/95 5/19/96 2/16/97 11/16/97 8/16/98 5/16/99 2/13/ 11/12/ 8/12/1 5/12/2 2/9/3 11/9/3 8/8/4 5/8/5 2/5/6 GROUPS As usual, confidence is higher among better-off groups. The index is +31 among higher-income Americans but -43 among those with the lowest incomes, +4 among college graduates while -46 among those who haven t finished high school, -6 among whites but -51 among blacks and -6 among men while -2 among women. It s higher among Republicans (+29) than among independents (-17) or Democrats (-32). Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI: 3
NATIONAL ECONOMY Forty percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 41 percent last week. The highest was 8 percent on Jan. 16, 2. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 4 3 37 6 38 22 Avg. since 12/85 4 3 37 6 4 2 PERSONAL FINANCES Fifty-six percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 57 percent last week. The best was 7 percent on Aug. 3, 1998, matched in January 2. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 56 5 51 44 31 13 Avg. since 12/85 57 5 52 43 3 13 BUYING CLIMATE Thirty-four percent say it s an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 38 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2. The worst was 2 percent in fall 199. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. net Not good Poor This week 34 2 32 66 44 22 Avg. since 12/85 38 3 36 62 41 21 METHODOLOGY Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week s results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1, adults in the four weeks ending Feb. 5, 26. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by ICR- International Communications Research of Media, Pa. The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +1 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -1 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found online at http://abcnews.com/pollvault.html. Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934. 2/5/6 This Last 4 Wks 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo 12 Mo 12 Mo Week Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Avg ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Group -------- GENERAL POPULATION: Overall Index -13-9 -8-19 -1-7 -23-13 4
State of Economy -2-18 -18-34 -18-16 -4-26 Personal Finances 12 14 12 12 12 22 8 15 Buying Climate -32-24 -18-36 -24-18 -38-29 ------------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Sex: Men -6-4 5-1 1 9-16 -4 Women -2-15 -21-36 -2-14 -36-22 Age: 18-34 -9-15 -7-13 -6-1 -28-12 35-44 -9 5-3 -24-11 5-27 -11 45-54 -27-19 -12-16 -6-5 -34-16 55-64 -7-2 -11-31 -15-2 -36-15 65+ -14-11 -9-18 -14-1 -32-15 Income: Under $15K -43-56 -53-43 -55-41 -75-56 $15K To $24.9K -47-51 -48-44 -34-13 -65-42 $25K To $39.9K -28-28 -23-41 -8-8 -44-27 $4K To $49.9K -24-4 26-27 -37 26-37 -1 Over $5K 18 25 2 5 22 25 4 17 $5K To $74.9K 6 17 8-7 8 17-14 4 $75K To $99.9K 21 25 16 2 29 37-1 17 Over $1K 31 36 41 24 39 5 18 35 Region: Northeast -15-16 -19-3 -2 2-41 -17 Midwest -22-16 -4-22 -11-3 -27-16 South -13-1 -15-19 -9 3-27 -12 West -4 3 7-8 -1 7-2 -8 Race: White -6-3 -4-15 -4-1 -18-9 Black -51-51 -36-44 -38-24 -56-43 Politics: Republican 29 32 34 15 4 42 9 26 Democrat -32-34 -43-39 -39-27 -46-37 Independent -17-11 -1-26 -16-9 -31-19 Education: < High School -46-44 -31-38 -35-24 -63-42 High Sch. Grad. -23-23 -18-27 -21-12 -35-23 College + 4 9 5-8 6 1-9 2 Home: Own -8 1-17 1 4-17 -5 Rent -32-39 -31-25 -32-2 -49-34 Marital Status: Single -17-24 -19-15 -2-8 -31-19 Married -3 6 5-13 6 7-14 -2 Sep/Wid/Div -4-37 -25-41 -32-22 -49-35 Employ. Status: Full-Time -6-1 2-6 1 4-13 -3 Part-Time -12-8 -7-21 -1-1 -35-18 Not Employed -24-22 -23-36 -23-15 -43-24 ***END*** 5