These are the survey questions (including any preamble) and detailed tables of a Toronto Sun/National Post DART Insight poll created and analyzed in full consultation and under the direction of veteran pollster John Wright, CEO of DART Insight, a division of DART Insight and Communications Inc. The data was collected in partnership with Canada s national survey sample research provider Maru/Blue that curates a vast Online Panel and provides data collection services. All questions herein were placed carefully on the questionnaire and then randomized to ensure that there was no inter-item contamination. The survey was conducted on a total split sample of 5,769 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue s Online panel between September 13-19, 2018. Respondents could opt in for either official language. The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region to match the population, according to Census data. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The precision of this DART Insight Online poll is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. In this case, a weighted split sample size of 2,902/2,867 is accurate to +/- 2.1% 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population and individual provinces. Paired/Overlap T-Test for Means, Paired/Overlap Z-Test for Percentages Uppercase letters indicate significance at the 95% level. Visit http://www.dartincom.ca/polls/ for the written release and detailed tables. For further information or commentary please contact: John Wright CEO DART Insight DART Insight and Communications (416) 919-2101 jwright@dartincom.ca Page 1
1. Which of the following two statements best reflects how you feel today? [SINGLE RESPONSE RANDOMIZE FIRST TWO] It s time for a change in government the Liberals under Justin Trudeau should be replaced by a different party It s not time for a change in government Liberals under Justin Trudeau should be re-elected Don t know/not sure 2. Based on how you feel right now, which party s candidate would you be most likely to support in your own riding if a federal election were held tomorrow? [SINGLE RESPONSE - [RANDOMIZE] Conservative Party Liberal Party New Democratic Party (NDP) Bloc Québécois [QUEBEC ONLY] Green Party Other party [DO NOT SPECIFY] [FIX POSITION] Not sure/can t say [FIX POSITION] Would not vote [FIX POSITION] [IF WOULD NOT VOTE or Not sure/can t say IN FP3 ASK:] 3. Is there any party you are leaning towards? [SINGLE RESPONSE [KEEP SAME ORDER AS IN FP3] Conservative Party Liberal Party New Democratic Party (NDP) Bloc Québécois [QUEBEC ONLY] Green Party Other party [DO NOT SPECIFY] [FIX POSITION] Not sure/can t say [FIX POSITION] 4. Now, thinking back to the last Canadian federal election held in October 2015 did you actually go out and vote in that election? [SINGLE RESPONSE] [THIS ORDER] Page 2
Yes, definitely voted Probably voted Maybe not/can t recall No, did not vote in that election [ASK ALL WHO SAY THEY VOTED OR MAY HAVE VOTED, TOP 3 BOX ABOVE] 5. And, which party s candidate did you vote for in that 2015 federal election? [SINGLE RESPONSE] Conservative Party Liberal Party [Continue to 6, ALL Others skip to 7] New Democratic Party (NDP) Bloc Québécois [QUEBEC ONLY] Green Party Other party [DO NOT SPECIFY] [FIX POSITION] Not sure/can t say [FIX POSITION] 6. Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements: [Grid Down] [Randomize] Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 [Grid Across] Agree very much Agree Somewhat Disagree Somewhat Disagree very much 7. Maxime Bernier is an elected member of the Federal Parliament of Canada from Quebec who recently resigned from the Federal Conservative party to form his own Party. He said the Conservative Party of Canada is not Conservative enough and he is opposed to: Canada s production quotas for dairy, poultry and eggs; the use of retaliatory trade tariffs against the U.S.; current immigration and multiculturalism policies and what he calls extreme diversity ; federal equalization transfers; corporate welfare ; and, regional economic agencies that subsidize businesses. Page 3
Based on this, how likely is it that you could consider voting for his new Party in the 2019 Federal election? [Choose One] [Grid Down] Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely Page 4
Which of the following two statements best reflects how you feel today? Gender Age Income Education Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents 5769 2818 2951 1209 2129 2431 1892 1842 1153 2429 1825 1515 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 5769 2749 3020 1037 2202 2530 1863 1905 1106 2150 2272 1347 It is time for a change in 2878 1496 1382 516 1082 1280 938 946 562 1295 904 678 government, the Liberals 50% 53% 47% 43% 51% 53% 50% 51% 49% 53% 50% 45% under Justin Trudeau should be replaced by a different party C D D L It is not time for a change in government, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau should be re-elected 1687 856 831 391 632 664 512 553 428 586 535 566 29% 30% 28% 32% 30% 27% 27% 30% 37% 24% 29% 37% GH J JK Not sure 1204 466 738 302 415 487 442 343 162 547 386 271 21% 17% 25% 25% 20% 20% 23% 19% 14% 23% 21% 18% B EF HI I L Page 5
Which of the following two statements best reflects how you feel today? Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents 5769 735 599 386 2151 1442 456 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 5769 700 648 1754 1051 703 913 It is time for a change in 2878 386 410 222 998 666 195 government, the Liberals under 50% 52% 69% 58% 46% 46% 43% Justin Trudeau should be FGH BDFGH BFGH replaced by a different party It is not time for a change in government, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau should be reelected 1687 196 112 101 706 410 162 29% 27% 19% 26% 33% 28% 36% C C BCD C BCDG Not sure 1204 154 76 63 447 366 98 21% 21% 13% 16% 21% 25% 22% CD C CD CD CD Page 6
Which of the following two statements best reflects how you feel today? Vote Intention (Fed vote)-including Leaners Urban/Rural Total 905 PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other Urban Rural (A) (R) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) (M1) (N1) BASE: All Respondents 5769 532 1877 1477 848 224 385 102 4726 1043 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 5769 165 2106 1428 818 100 367 101 4379 1390 It is time for a change in 2878 226 1664 91 408 173 187 69 2315 563 government, the Liberals 50% 42% 89% 6% 48% 77% 49% 67% 49% 54% under Justin Trudeau should be replaced by a different party WXYZA1 W WXZ W WXZ M1 It is not time for a change in government, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau should be reelected 1687 187 74 1163 221 22 101 8 1410 277 29% 35% 4% 79% 26% 10% 26% 7% 30% 27% O VXYZA1 VYA1 VYA1 Not sure 1204 119 140 223 219 29 97 26 1001 203 21% 22% 7% 15% 26% 13% 25% 25% 21% 19% O V VWY VWY V Page 7
(Including leaners-excluding Non Voters) If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency? Undecided: 15% Gender Age Income Education Tech Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or less school Univ+ (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: Decided voters 4914 2516 2398 1019 1833 2062 1527 1639 1061 1990 1544 1380 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 4920 2470 2450 858 1861 2201 1534 1680 1010 1771 1932 1217 Conservative Party 1877 1078 799 243 720 914 514 658 408 884 566 428 38% 43% 33% 24% 39% 44% 34% 40% 38% 44% 37% 31% C D DE G KL Liberal Party 1477 743 734 332 507 638 419 473 388 542 480 455 30% 30% 31% 33% 28% 31% 27% 29% 37% 27% 31% 33% GH J New Democratic Party (NDP) 848 357 491 271 309 268 284 290 162 304 273 271 17% 14% 20% 27% 17% 13% 19% 18% 15% 15% 18% 20% B EF F Bloc Québécois 224 113 112 30 97 98 113 70 20 90 58 76 5% 4% 5% 3% 5% 5% 7% 4% 2% 5% 4% 5% D D HI I K Green Party 385 168 217 114 145 127 163 123 57 135 125 125 8% 7% 9% 11% 8% 6% 11% 7% 5% 7% 8% 9% B F HI Other party 102 58 44 29 55 18 33 24 26 34 42 26 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% F F Page 8
(Including leaners-excluding Non Voters) If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would Undecided: 15% Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: Decided voters 4914 642 518 332 1878 1161 383 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 4920 608 558 1512 903 570 769 Conservative Party 1877 226 350 166 729 286 120 38% 35% 68% 50% 39% 25% 31% G BDFGH BFGH GH G Liberal Party 1477 169 95 88 613 338 174 30% 26% 18% 26% 33% 29% 45% C C BCD C BCDFG New Democratic Party (NDP) 848 142 44 53 349 207 54 17% 22% 9% 16% 19% 18% 14% CDH C CH C C Bloc Québécois 224 224 5% 19% Green Party 385 89 17 22 150 79 28 8% 14% 3% 7% 8% 7% 7% CDFGH C C C C Other party 102 15 11 4 37 28 8 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% Page 9
(Including leaners-excluding Non Voters) If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency? Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouver Edmontom Calgary Winnipeg GTA 905 416 Montreal Halifax Urban Rural (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: Decided voters 4914 343 152 167 106 824 480 344 502 342 4031 884 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 4920 295 174 178 392 328 143 185 232 683 3729 1191 Conservative Party 1877 107 88 125 42 288 185 104 113 103 1488 390 38% 31% 58% 75% 40% 35% 38% 30% 22% 30% 37% 44% T MPQRSTUMNPQRSTU MTU T T T M1 Liberal Party 1477 100 36 23 39 308 162 146 147 161 1221 256 30% 29% 23% 14% 36% 37% 34% 43% 29% 47% 30% 29% O O NO NO O MNOT O MNOPQRT New Democratic Party (NDP) 848 81 21 9 16 157 93 64 86 49 747 101 17% 24% 14% 6% 15% 19% 19% 19% 17% 14% 19% 11% NOPU O O O O O O O N1 Bloc Québécois 224 115 178 47 5% 23% 4% 5% Green Party Other party 385 46 3 7 8 61 39 22 28 20 316 70 8% 13% 2% 4% 8% 7% 8% 6% 6% 6% 8% 8% NOPQSTU N N N N 102 8 4 3 1 9 2 7 14 8 81 21 2% 2% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% Undecided: 15% Page 10
Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Top2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents 2902 381 303 197 1059 744 219 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 362 333 887 499 346 429 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been 1414 171 84 75 543 428 113 an effective leader 49% 45% 28% 38% 51% 58% 52% The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 C C CD BCD CD 1138 135 73 64 453 323 90 39% 36% 24% 32% 43% 43% 41% C C CD CD CD 1975 260 236 138 680 530 132 68% 68% 78% 70% 64% 71% 60% H BDFH H H 2272 299 266 159 836 548 165 78% 78% 88% 81% 79% 74% 76% BDFGH G Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Bottom2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents 2902 381 303 197 1059 744 219 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 362 333 887 499 346 429 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been 1488 210 218 121 516 316 106 an effective leader 51% 55% 72% 62% 49% 42% 48% G BDFGH FGH 1764 246 229 133 606 421 129 Page 11
The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 61% 64% 76% 68% 57% 57% 59% BDFGH FGH 927 122 67 59 379 214 87 32% 32% 22% 30% 36% 29% 40% C C C BCDG 630 82 37 38 223 197 53 22% 22% 12% 19% 21% 26% 24% C C C CD C Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents 2902 381 303 197 1059 744 219 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 362 333 887 499 346 429 Agree very much 335 34 18 22 127 98 36 12% 9% 6% 11% 12% 13% 17% C C C BCD Agree somewhat 1079 137 67 53 416 330 77 37% 36% 22% 27% 39% 44% 35% CD CD CDH CD Disagree somewhat 671 102 60 38 265 155 52 23% 27% 20% 19% 25% 21% 24% CD Disagree very much 817 108 159 83 251 162 54 28% 28% 52% 42% 24% 22% 25% BDFGH BFGH Top2box 1414 171 84 75 543 428 113 49% 45% 28% 38% 51% 58% 52% C C CD BCD CD Bottom2box 1488 210 218 121 516 316 106 51% 55% 72% 62% 49% 42% 48% G BDFGH FGH Page 12
Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents 2902 381 303 197 1059 744 219 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 362 333 887 499 346 429 Agree very much 213 15 11 16 77 73 20 7% 4% 4% 8% 7% 10% 9% BC BC BC Agree somewhat 926 120 62 48 376 250 70 32% 32% 21% 24% 35% 34% 32% CD CD CD CD Disagree somewhat 881 121 72 49 313 263 65 30% 32% 24% 25% 30% 35% 30% CD CD Disagree very much 883 125 157 84 293 159 64 30% 33% 52% 43% 28% 21% 29% G BDFGH BFGH G Top2box 1138 135 73 64 453 323 90 39% 36% 24% 32% 43% 43% 41% C C CD CD CD Bottom2box 1764 246 229 133 606 421 129 61% 64% 76% 68% 57% 57% 59% BDFGH FGH Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents 2902 381 303 197 1059 744 219 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 362 333 887 499 346 429 Page 13
Agree very much 1121 127 168 91 356 305 75 39% 33% 56% 46% 34% 41% 34% BDFGH BFH Agree somewhat 854 132 68 48 324 226 57 29% 35% 22% 24% 31% 30% 26% CDH CD C Disagree somewhat 634 82 41 33 278 143 57 22% 22% 13% 17% 26% 19% 26% C CD CD Disagree very much 292 39 26 25 101 71 30 10% 10% 9% 13% 10% 10% 14% Top2box 1975 260 236 138 680 530 132 68% 68% 78% 70% 64% 71% 60% H BDFH H H Bottom2box 927 122 67 59 379 214 87 32% 32% 22% 30% 36% 29% 40% C C C BCDG Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents 2902 381 303 197 1059 744 219 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 362 333 887 499 346 429 Agree very much 931 127 139 80 299 218 68 32% 33% 46% 41% 28% 29% 31% BFGH BFGH Agree somewhat 1341 172 127 78 537 329 98 46% 45% 42% 40% 51% 44% 45% CD Disagree somewhat 477 67 24 29 174 146 36 16% 18% 8% 15% 16% 20% 16% C C C C C Page 14
Disagree very much 153 15 12 9 49 50 18 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 7% 8% BCD Top2box 2272 299 266 159 836 548 165 78% 78% 88% 81% 79% 74% 76% BDFGH G Bottom2box 630 82 37 38 223 197 53 22% 22% 12% 19% 21% 26% 24% C C C CD C Q_BERNIER_CONSIDERATION. Based on this, how likely is it that you could consider voting for his new Party in the 2019 Federal election? Province Total BC AB SK/MB ON PQ Atlantic (A) (B) (C) (D) (F) (G) (H) BASE: All Respondents 2902 381 303 197 1059 744 219 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 362 333 887 499 346 429 Very likely 179 14 12 6 88 50 9 6% 4% 4% 3% 8% 7% 4% BCDH Somewhat likely 483 48 60 20 206 117 32 17% 13% 20% 10% 19% 16% 15% BD BD D Not very likely 778 109 85 45 299 187 52 27% 29% 28% 23% 28% 25% 24% Not at all likely 1462 210 145 125 466 391 125 50% 55% 48% 64% 44% 53% 57% F BCFG CF Top2box 662 62 72 27 294 166 41 23% 16% 24% 13% 28% 22% 19% BD BDH D Bottom2box 2241 319 230 170 765 578 178 77% 84% 76% 87% 72% 78% 81% CF CFG F Page 15
Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Top2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Gender Age Income Education Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents 2902 1394 1508 637 1072 1193 913 865 635 1206 913 783 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1336 1520 522 1071 1263 906 925 550 1079 1137 640 Prime Minister Justin 1414 620 795 423 472 520 454 412 333 509 447 459 Trudeau has been an 49% 44% 53% 66% 44% 44% 50% 48% 52% 42% 49% 59% effective leader B EF J JK The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 1138 505 633 304 391 444 365 342 274 420 372 347 39% 36% 42% 48% 36% 37% 40% 39% 43% 35% 41% 44% B EF J J 1975 970 1005 379 717 879 624 583 439 869 621 486 68% 70% 67% 60% 67% 74% 68% 67% 69% 72% 68% 62% DE L 2272 1065 1207 479 824 969 721 694 496 965 711 596 78% 76% 80% 75% 77% 81% 79% 80% 78% 80% 78% 76% Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Bottom2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Gender Age Income Education Page 16
Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents 2902 1394 1508 637 1072 1193 913 865 635 1206 913 783 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1336 1520 522 1071 1263 906 925 550 1079 1137 640 Prime Minister Justin 1488 774 714 214 600 673 459 453 302 697 466 324 Trudeau has been an 51% 56% 47% 34% 56% 56% 50% 52% 48% 58% 51% 41% effective leader C D D KL L The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 1764 889 875 333 681 750 548 524 362 786 541 436 61% 64% 58% 52% 64% 63% 60% 61% 57% 65% 59% 56% C D D KL 927 424 503 258 355 314 288 282 196 337 292 297 32% 30% 33% 40% 33% 26% 32% 33% 31% 28% 32% 38% F F J 630 328 302 158 248 224 192 172 140 241 202 187 22% 24% 20% 25% 23% 19% 21% 20% 22% 20% 22% 24% Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader Gender Age Income Education Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents 2902 1394 1508 637 1072 1193 913 865 635 1206 913 783 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1336 1520 522 1071 1263 906 925 550 1079 1137 640 Agree very much 335 170 165 82 121 132 109 106 87 112 127 97 12% 12% 11% 13% 11% 11% 12% 12% 14% 9% 14% 12% J Agree somewhat 1079 450 629 341 351 388 345 306 246 397 320 362 Page 17
37% 32% 42% 53% 33% 33% 38% 35% 39% 33% 35% 46% B EF JK Disagree somewhat 671 314 357 142 268 260 205 198 149 273 215 182 23% 23% 24% 22% 25% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% 24% 23% Disagree very much 817 460 357 72 332 413 254 255 153 424 251 142 28% 33% 24% 11% 31% 35% 28% 30% 24% 35% 27% 18% C D D KL L Top2box 1414 620 795 423 472 520 454 412 333 509 447 459 49% 44% 53% 66% 44% 44% 50% 48% 52% 42% 49% 59% B EF J JK Bottom2box 1488 774 714 214 600 673 459 453 302 697 466 324 51% 56% 47% 34% 56% 56% 50% 52% 48% 58% 51% 41% C D D KL L Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me Gender Age Income Education Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents 2902 1394 1508 637 1072 1193 913 865 635 1206 913 783 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1336 1520 522 1071 1263 906 925 550 1079 1137 640 Agree very much 213 103 110 43 80 90 83 69 41 76 89 48 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 8% 6% 6% 10% 6% J Agree somewhat 926 403 523 261 311 354 282 273 232 344 283 299 32% 29% 35% 41% 29% 30% 31% 32% 37% 28% 31% 38% B EF J Disagree somewhat 881 421 460 235 298 348 273 260 187 352 271 258 30% 30% 31% 37% 28% 29% 30% 30% 29% 29% 30% 33% E Disagree very much 883 467 415 98 383 402 275 264 175 434 270 178 30% 34% 28% 15% 36% 34% 30% 31% 28% 36% 30% 23% Page 18
C D D KL Top2box 1138 505 633 304 391 444 365 342 274 420 372 347 39% 36% 42% 48% 36% 37% 40% 39% 43% 35% 41% 44% B EF J J Bottom2box 1764 889 875 333 681 750 548 524 362 786 541 436 61% 64% 58% 52% 64% 63% 60% 61% 57% 65% 59% 56% C D D KL Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues Gender Age Income Education Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents 2902 1394 1508 637 1072 1193 913 865 635 1206 913 783 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1336 1520 522 1071 1263 906 925 550 1079 1137 640 Agree very much 1121 614 508 120 418 583 374 347 219 541 361 220 39% 44% 34% 19% 39% 49% 41% 40% 34% 45% 40% 28% C D DE L L Agree somewhat 854 356 498 259 299 297 250 236 220 328 260 266 29% 26% 33% 41% 28% 25% 27% 27% 35% 27% 28% 34% B EF Disagree somewhat 634 289 346 185 235 214 208 189 122 232 178 225 22% 21% 23% 29% 22% 18% 23% 22% 19% 19% 20% 29% F JK Disagree very much 292 135 157 73 120 100 81 94 75 105 114 73 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 8% 9% 11% 12% 9% 13% 9% J Top2box 1975 970 1005 379 717 879 624 583 439 869 621 486 68% 70% 67% 60% 67% 74% 68% 67% 69% 72% 68% 62% DE L Bottom2box 927 424 503 258 355 314 288 282 196 337 292 297 32% 30% 33% 40% 33% 26% 32% 33% 31% 28% 32% 38% Page 19
F F J Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 Gender Age Income Education Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents 2902 1394 1508 637 1072 1193 913 865 635 1206 913 783 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1336 1520 522 1071 1263 906 925 550 1079 1137 640 Agree very much 931 488 443 116 351 465 308 292 180 447 301 183 32% 35% 29% 18% 33% 39% 34% 34% 28% 37% 33% 23% C D DE L L Agree somewhat 1341 577 764 364 473 504 413 401 316 519 410 413 46% 41% 51% 57% 44% 42% 45% 46% 50% 43% 45% 53% B EF J Disagree somewhat 477 236 241 145 175 157 131 135 107 176 138 163 16% 17% 16% 23% 16% 13% 14% 16% 17% 15% 15% 21% F Disagree very much 153 92 61 12 73 68 61 37 33 65 64 24 5% 7% 4% 2% 7% 6% 7% 4% 5% 5% 7% 3% D D L Top2box 2272 1065 1207 479 824 969 721 694 496 965 711 596 78% 76% 80% 75% 77% 81% 79% 80% 78% 80% 78% 76% Bottom2box 630 328 302 158 248 224 192 172 140 241 202 187 22% 24% 20% 25% 23% 19% 21% 20% 22% 20% 22% 24% Q_BERNIER_CONSIDERATION. Based on this, how likely is it that you could consider voting for his new Party in the 2019 Federal election? Gender Age Income Education Page 20
Total Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ <$50K $50-99K $100K+ HS or Tech Univ+ less school (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) BASE: All Respondents 2902 1394 1508 637 1072 1193 913 865 635 1206 913 783 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1336 1520 522 1071 1263 906 925 550 1079 1137 640 Very likely 179 102 77 40 99 40 71 44 33 67 59 53 6% 7% 5% 6% 9% 3% 8% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% F Somewhat likely 483 211 272 116 214 153 143 176 86 193 184 106 17% 15% 18% 18% 20% 13% 16% 20% 14% 16% 20% 14% F I L Not very likely 778 345 434 201 294 284 236 205 203 337 229 213 27% 25% 29% 32% 27% 24% 26% 24% 32% 28% 25% 27% H Not at all likely 1462 736 726 280 466 716 463 440 314 610 441 411 50% 53% 48% 44% 43% 60% 51% 51% 49% 51% 48% 52% DE Top2box 662 313 349 156 312 193 214 220 118 260 243 159 23% 22% 23% 25% 29% 16% 23% 25% 19% 22% 27% 20% F F J Bottom2box 2241 1081 1159 481 760 1000 699 645 517 947 670 623 77% 78% 77% 75% 71% 84% 77% 75% 81% 78% 73% 80% DE K Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Top2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA 905 416 Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) Page 21
BASE: All 2902 199 98 106 61 485 307 178 370 195 2384 518 Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 175 108 119 228 187 80 107 150 380 2193 663 Prime Minister Justin 1414 97 31 25 31 268 168 100 224 99 1201 214 Trudeau has been an 49% 49% 32% 24% 51% 55% 55% 56% 61% 51% 50% 41% effective leader NO NO NO NO NO NO NO N1 The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 1138 78 25 26 26 226 148 78 158 80 959 179 39% 39% 26% 25% 43% 47% 48% 44% 43% 41% 40% 35% NO NO NO NO NO NO NO 1975 121 73 87 38 326 218 108 279 119 1579 397 68% 61% 74% 82% 63% 67% 71% 61% 75% 61% 66% 77% MPU MPQSU MPSU M1 2272 154 86 91 46 373 237 136 283 147 1849 423 78% 77% 88% 86% 75% 77% 77% 76% 77% 76% 78% 82% MPQSTU PU Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Bottom2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA 905 416 Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: All 2902 199 98 106 61 485 307 178 370 195 2384 518 Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 175 108 119 228 187 80 107 150 380 2193 663 Page 22
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 1488 102 67 81 30 216 139 78 146 96 1183 304 51% 51% 68% 76% 49% 45% 45% 44% 39% 49% 50% 59% MPQRSTU MPQRSTU M1 1764 122 73 80 35 259 159 100 211 115 1425 339 61% 61% 74% 75% 57% 53% 52% 56% 57% 59% 60% 65% MPQRSTU MPQRSTU 927 78 25 19 23 159 89 70 91 76 805 122 32% 39% 26% 18% 37% 33% 29% 39% 25% 39% 34% 23% NOT NOT O OT NOT N1 630 46 12 15 15 112 70 42 86 48 535 95 22% 23% 12% 14% 25% 23% 23% 24% 23% 24% 22% 18% N NO N N N NO Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA 905 416 Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: All 2902 199 98 106 61 485 307 178 370 195 2384 518 Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 175 108 119 228 187 80 107 150 380 2193 663 Agree very much 335 14 6 4 10 67 53 14 44 30 268 68 12% 7% 6% 4% 16% 14% 17% 8% 12% 16% 11% 13% MNO O O O MNO Agree somewhat 1079 84 25 21 21 201 116 86 179 68 933 146 Page 23
37% 42% 26% 20% 35% 42% 38% 48% 49% 35% 39% 28% NO O NO O NOU NOPU O N1 Disagree somewhat 671 55 25 21 13 143 87 56 61 47 546 125 23% 28% 26% 20% 22% 29% 28% 31% 17% 24% 23% 24% T T T Disagree very much 817 47 42 60 17 73 51 22 84 49 637 179 28% 23% 42% 56% 27% 15% 17% 12% 23% 25% 27% 35% S MPQRSTU MPQRSTU QS QS M1 Top2box 1414 97 31 25 31 268 168 100 224 99 1201 214 49% 49% 32% 24% 51% 55% 55% 56% 61% 51% 50% 41% NO NO NO NO NO NO NO N1 Bottom2box 1488 102 67 81 30 216 139 78 146 96 1183 304 51% 51% 68% 76% 49% 45% 45% 44% 39% 49% 50% 59% MPQRSTU MPQRSTU M1 Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA 905 416 Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: All 2902 199 98 106 61 485 307 178 370 195 2384 518 Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 175 108 119 228 187 80 107 150 380 2193 663 Agree very much 213 4 5 5 6 42 26 16 30 17 180 33 7% 2% 5% 4% 11% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9% 8% 6% MO M M Agree somewhat 926 74 21 21 20 184 122 62 128 63 780 146 32% 37% 21% 20% 32% 38% 40% 35% 35% 32% 33% 28% NO NO NO NO O NO NO Disagree somewhat 881 70 30 23 18 152 75 77 125 56 728 153 30% 35% 31% 22% 29% 31% 24% 43% 34% 29% 31% 30% O R OPQRU O Page 24
Disagree very much 883 52 43 57 17 107 84 23 86 59 697 186 30% 26% 44% 54% 28% 22% 27% 13% 23% 30% 29% 36% S MPQSTU MPQRSTU S S Top2box 1138 78 25 26 26 226 148 78 158 80 959 179 39% 39% 26% 25% 43% 47% 48% 44% 43% 41% 40% 35% NO NO NO NO NO NO NO Bottom2box 1764 122 73 80 35 259 159 100 211 115 1425 339 61% 61% 74% 75% 57% 53% 52% 56% 57% 59% 60% 65% MPQRSTU MPQRSTU Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA 905 416 Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: All 2902 199 98 106 61 485 307 178 370 195 2384 518 Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 175 108 119 228 187 80 107 150 380 2193 663 Agree very much 1121 59 46 62 22 127 79 47 159 68 881 240 39% 30% 47% 58% 36% 26% 26% 27% 43% 35% 37% 46% MQRSU MPQRSTU MQRS M1 Agree somewhat 854 62 27 25 16 199 139 61 120 51 698 156 29% 31% 27% 24% 27% 41% 45% 34% 32% 26% 29% 30% NOPU NOPU Disagree somewhat 634 53 15 11 15 126 63 63 64 52 558 76 22% 27% 15% 10% 24% 26% 20% 35% 17% 27% 23% 15% NO O O NOT NOT N1 Disagree very much 292 25 10 8 8 33 26 7 27 24 247 46 10% 13% 10% 8% 13% 7% 8% 4% 7% 12% 10% 9% S S S Top2box 1975 121 73 87 38 326 218 108 279 119 1579 397 68% 61% 74% 82% 63% 67% 71% 61% 75% 61% 66% 77% Page 25
MPU MPQSU MPSU M1 Bottom2box 927 78 25 19 23 159 89 70 91 76 805 122 32% 39% 26% 18% 37% 33% 29% 39% 25% 39% 34% 23% NOT NOT O OT NOT N1 Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA 905 416 Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: All 2902 199 98 106 61 485 307 178 370 195 2384 518 Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 175 108 119 228 187 80 107 150 380 2193 663 Agree very much 931 54 39 52 17 110 69 41 109 59 736 196 32% 27% 40% 49% 29% 23% 22% 23% 29% 30% 31% 38% QRS MPQRSTU Agree somewhat 1341 99 47 39 28 262 168 94 174 88 1113 228 46% 50% 48% 37% 47% 54% 55% 53% 47% 45% 47% 44% O O O O Disagree somewhat 477 39 6 12 12 91 55 36 62 32 403 73 16% 19% 6% 11% 19% 19% 18% 20% 17% 17% 17% 14% N N N N N N Disagree very much 153 7 6 3 3 21 15 6 24 15 132 22 5% 3% 6% 3% 5% 4% 5% 3% 7% 8% 6% 4% MO Top2box 2272 154 86 91 46 373 237 136 283 147 1849 423 78% 77% 88% 86% 75% 77% 77% 76% 77% 76% 78% 82% MPQSTU PU Bottom2box 630 46 12 15 15 112 70 42 86 48 535 95 22% 23% 12% 14% 25% 23% 23% 24% 23% 24% 22% 18% N NO N N N NO Page 26
Q_BERNIER_CONSIDERATION. Based on this, how likely is it that you could consider voting for his new Party in the 2019 Federal election? Cities Urban/Rural Total Vancouve Edmonto Calgary Winnipeg GTA 905 416 Montreal Halifax Urban Rural r m (A) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (U) (M1) (N1) BASE: All 2902 199 98 106 61 485 307 178 370 195 2384 518 Respondents BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 175 108 119 228 187 80 107 150 380 2193 663 Very likely 179 7 1 5 1 48 34 14 16 8 154 24 6% 4% 1% 5% 2% 10% 11% 8% 4% 4% 6% 5% N NP N N N Somewhat likely 483 27 16 22 7 89 45 45 54 29 397 86 17% 13% 16% 21% 12% 18% 15% 25% 15% 15% 17% 17% P Not very likely 778 60 29 36 17 160 117 44 106 48 624 154 27% 30% 30% 34% 27% 33% 38% 25% 29% 25% 26% 30% Not at all likely 1462 106 52 43 36 187 111 76 194 109 1208 254 50% 53% 53% 40% 59% 39% 36% 43% 52% 56% 51% 49% Q Q OQRS OQRS Top2box 662 34 16 27 8 137 79 58 70 37 551 110 23% 17% 17% 26% 14% 28% 26% 33% 19% 19% 23% 21% P P MNPTU Bottom2box 2241 165 81 78 52 347 228 120 300 158 1833 408 77% 83% 83% 74% 86% 72% 74% 67% 81% 81% 77% 79% S S OQS S S Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Top2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Page 27
Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents 2902 918 753 444 129 190 37 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1020 710 405 49 188 48 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau 1414 139 656 278 47 91 8 has been an effective leader 49% 15% 87% 63% 36% 48% 21% The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 VXYZA1 VYZA1 V VA1 1138 108 609 186 32 68 7 39% 12% 81% 42% 24% 36% 19% VXYZA1 VA1 V 1975 828 329 268 104 134 34 68% 90% 44% 60% 81% 71% 93% WXZ W WX W WXZ 2272 833 476 371 108 145 30 78% 91% 63% 84% 84% 76% 83% WXZ W W W W Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. [Bottom2box] Thinking about how Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have done over the past three years, please indicate if you agree or disagree with the following statements Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents 2902 918 753 444 129 190 37 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1020 710 405 49 188 48 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau 1488 779 97 165 82 100 29 has been an effective leader 51% 85% 13% 37% 64% 52% 79% Page 28
The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 WXYZ W WX WX WXZ 1764 810 144 258 98 122 30 61% 88% 19% 58% 76% 64% 81% WXZ W W W WX 927 90 424 176 25 56 3 32% 10% 56% 40% 19% 29% 7% VXYZA1 VYA1 VA1 630 85 277 73 21 46 6 22% 9% 37% 16% 16% 24% 17% VXYZA1 V V Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been an effective leader Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents 2902 918 753 444 129 190 37 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1020 710 405 49 188 48 Agree very much 335 19 262 37 1 6 1 12% 2% 35% 8% 1% 3% 3% VXYZA1 VY Agree somewhat 1079 120 393 241 46 84 7 37% 13% 52% 54% 36% 44% 18% VA1 VYA1 V VA1 Disagree somewhat 671 234 84 120 34 56 8 23% 25% 11% 27% 27% 30% 22% W W W Disagree very much 817 545 13 45 48 44 21 28% 59% 2% 10% 37% 23% 56% WXYZ W WX WX WXZ Top2box 1414 139 656 278 47 91 8 Page 29
49% 15% 87% 63% 36% 48% 21% VXYZA1 VYZA1 V VA1 Bottom2box 1488 779 97 165 82 100 29 51% 85% 13% 37% 64% 52% 79% WXYZ W WX WX WXZ Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government is addressing the issues and policies that matter most to me Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents 2902 918 753 444 129 190 37 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1020 710 405 49 188 48 Agree very much 213 21 162 19 3 7% 2% 22% 4% 2% VXZ Agree somewhat 926 86 447 167 32 65 7 32% 9% 59% 38% 24% 34% 19% VXYZA1 VA1 V Disagree somewhat 881 244 128 190 41 66 6 30% 27% 17% 43% 31% 35% 17% W VWA1 W Disagree very much 883 566 16 68 57 56 23 30% 62% 2% 15% 44% 29% 64% WXYZ W WX WX WXZ Top2box 1138 108 609 186 32 68 7 39% 12% 81% 42% 24% 36% 19% VXYZA1 VA1 V Bottom2box 1764 810 144 258 98 122 30 61% 88% 19% 58% 76% 64% 81% WXZ W W W WX Page 30
Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau government has been consumed more with looking good than dealing with key issues Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents 2902 918 753 444 129 190 37 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1020 710 405 49 188 48 Agree very much 1121 643 74 99 72 75 26 39% 70% 10% 22% 56% 39% 71% WXZ W WX WX WXZ Agree somewhat 854 185 255 169 32 60 8 29% 20% 34% 38% 25% 31% 22% V V V Disagree somewhat 634 49 258 139 17 42 1 22% 5% 34% 31% 13% 22% 3% VYZA1 VYA1 VA1 Disagree very much 292 41 166 37 7 14 1 10% 4% 22% 8% 6% 7% 4% VXYZA1 Top2box 1975 828 329 268 104 134 34 68% 90% 44% 60% 81% 71% 93% WXZ W WX W WXZ Bottom2box 927 90 424 176 25 56 3 32% 10% 56% 40% 19% 29% 7% VXYZA1 VYA1 VA1 Q_LIBERALS_PERFORMANCE. Agreement- The Trudeau Liberals are vulnerable to losing their majority government in the next election in 2019 Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other Page 31
(A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents 2902 918 753 444 129 190 37 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1020 710 405 49 188 48 Agree very much 931 522 83 99 46 64 10 32% 57% 11% 22% 36% 34% 28% WXYZA1 W W W Agree somewhat 1341 311 393 272 62 81 20 46% 34% 52% 61% 48% 43% 56% V VZ V Disagree somewhat 477 58 199 64 13 37 5 16% 6% 26% 14% 10% 20% 14% VXY V V Disagree very much 153 27 77 9 9 8 1 5% 3% 10% 2% 7% 4% 3% VXZA1 Top2box 2272 833 476 371 108 145 30 78% 91% 63% 84% 84% 76% 83% WXZ W W W W Bottom2box 630 85 277 73 21 46 6 22% 9% 37% 16% 16% 24% 17% VXYZA1 V V Q_BERNIER_CONSIDERATION. Based on this, how likely is it that you could consider voting for his new Party in the 2019 Federal election? Vote Intention (Fed vote) Total PC Lib NDP BLOC Green Other (A) (V) (W) (X) (Y) (Z) (A1) BASE: All Respondents 2902 918 753 444 129 190 37 BASE: UNWEIGHTED 2856 1020 710 405 49 188 48 Very likely 179 79 36 21 12 12 9 6% 9% 5% 5% 10% 6% 26% W VWXZ Page 32
Somewhat likely 483 200 74 57 26 35 10 17% 22% 10% 13% 20% 19% 27% WX W Not very likely 778 277 176 102 26 46 4 27% 30% 23% 23% 20% 24% 12% WA1 Not at all likely 1462 362 467 265 65 98 13 50% 39% 62% 60% 51% 51% 35% VA1 VA1 V Top2box 662 279 110 77 38 47 19 23% 30% 15% 17% 30% 25% 53% WX W VWXZ Bottom2box 2241 639 643 366 91 143 17 77% 70% 85% 83% 70% 75% 47% A1 VZA1 VA1 A1 Page 33