Have a plan! Pre-harvest marketing is a broad view of the market, trying to take advantage of early seasonal price tendencies. Crop insurance is a critical part of marketing. A pre-harvest marketing plan can be written months (years?) in advance. Quiz Time! When did the Dec 08 corn futures contract begin trading? A. July 2006 B. March 2006 C. January 2006 D. December 2005 Open interest in the Dec 08 contract already exceeds 60,000 contracts - 300 million bushels! 1
Let s Talk Ethanol a) USDA is underestimating the rapid growth of ethanol production (and corn demand). b) Higher demand = higher prices c) Futures and basis will be affected d) Timing, timing, timing Let s Talk Ethanol The Dec 09 corn futures contract began trading on July 21-41 months prior to expiration. There are over 2,500 contracts open. 2
Three reasons to like pre-harvest sales 1. Strong seasonal tendency 2. LDP s give me upside potential in a down market 3. The sale is made at a price that works for me! Ethanol and Marketing How can I adapt my pre-harvest marketing plan to prepare for changes in the corn market driven by increasing ethanol production? 3
Ethanol and Marketing How can I adapt my plan? 1. Crop insurance! 2. Change your mix of pricing tools less fixed price tools and more minimum price tools, or a greater willingness to follow the trend 3. Look for cheap courage calls early in the calendar year Corn 2007 Pre-Harvest Marketing Plan Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have 75% of my anticipated corn crop (based on APH yield) priced by late May. Price 10,000 bushels at $2.10 cash price ($2.60 Dec. futures) using forward contract/futures hedge/futures fixed contract. Price 10,000 bushels at $2.22c/2.72f, or by Mar 15, using a fixed-price contract. Price 15,000 bushels at $2.34c/2.84f, or by Apr 2, using a fixed-price contract. Price 10,000 bushels at $2.46c/2.96f, or by Apr 17, consider options/trend system. Price 10,000 bushels at $2.58c/3.08f, or by May 2, consider options/trend system. Price 10,000 bushels at $2.70c/3.20f, or by June 1, consider options/trend system. Plan starts on January 1, 2007. Earlier sales will be made at a 20 cent premium to price targets noted above. Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $2.10 local cash price/$2.60 December futures. Exit all options positions by mid-september. 4
Corn 2007 Pre-Harvest Marketing Plan Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have 75% of my anticipated corn crop (based on APH yield) priced by late May. Price 10,000 bushels at $2.10 cash price ($2.60 Dec. futures) using forward contract/futures hedge/futures fixed contract. Price 10,000 bushels at $2.22c/2.72f, or by Mar 15, using a fixed-price contract. Price 15,000 bushels at $2.34c/2.84f, or by Apr 2, using a fixed-price contract. Price 10,000 bushels at $2.46c/2.96f, or by Apr 17, consider options/trend system. Price 10,000 bushels at $2.58c/3.08f, or by May 2, consider options/trend system. Price 10,000 bushels at $2.70c/3.20f, or by June 1, consider options/trend system. Plan starts on January 1, 2007. Earlier sales will be made at a 20 cent premium to price targets noted above. Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $2.10 local cash price/$2.60 December futures. Exit all options positions by mid-september. Short Crop Year 1980 1983 1988 1990 1991 1993 1995 1996 2002 2005 Avg. Ethanol and Marketing Look for cheap courage calls early in the calendar year. (Buy an at-the-money call on Feb 15, sell on Sep 15) Dec futures Feb 15 312.75 292.00 215.25 248.75 259.00 240.25 258.00 308.50 232.75 231.00 Call 320 300 220 250 260 250 260 310 240 240 Premium* 19.00 18.00 13.00 17.00 17.00 12.125 15.50 22.75 14.00 14.50 Dec futures Sep 15 348.50 348.25 295.50 224.00 255.50 238.75 303.75 314.50 278.00 206.50 Premium* 30.00 50.00 77.00 1.875 6.50 3.875 43.75 14.00 38.25 0.50 16.3 25.6 * Actual in bold, estimated in italics Profit (loss) 10.0 31.0 63.0 (16.125) (11.5) (9.25) 27.25 (9.75) 23.25 (15.0) 9.3 5
Ethanol and Marketing How can I adapt my plan? 1. Crop insurance and flexibility with pricing tools are already a part of the plan 2. Calls will help but, on average, less than one would expect 100% Primary Oxygenates for Gasoline 90% 80% MBTE 000s of barrels a day 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Ethanol 0% Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Source: EIA, Wells Fargo Ag Economics 6
Per gallon $3.00 $2.75 High-low CBOT Ethanol Futures 09-18-06 per bushel 350 330 Corn Futures Current $2.50 310 $2.25 290 $2.00 $1.75 Current $1.50 10-06 12-06 2-07 4-07 6-07 8-07 270 high-low 250 230 Contract Month 210 Source: CBOT, WF Ag Economics 9-06 12-06 3-07 5-07 7-07 9-07 12-07 3-08 5-08 7-08 9-08 12-08 12-09 $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 natural gas costs - 100 200 300 400 $2.5 $2.22 Implied Future Ethanol Margins Per bushel of corn $1.5 $1.94 $1.62 $1.40 $1.37 5 year average gross margin $1.31 $1.38 $1.31 $1.22 $1.15 $1.08 $0.88 $0.5 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Source: CBOT, CME, WF Ag Economics 7
Implied Volatility 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% December '07 Corn Volatility Skew September 26, 2006 close: Dec'07 futures at $3.02 260 300 340 380 420 460 500 Strike Price A rightward skewed volatility curve (like this) is indicative of a market that is concerned about a sharp move higher in prices! 8