NEW THINKING Has all the easy money been made? Evaluating the current U.S. macroeconomic environment and financial markets Damian Fernandes, Vice President & Director at TD Asset Management In a Nutshell Though the U.S. equity markets are experiencing heightened volatility, economic data does not indicate that a recession is imminent. U.S. companies are attractively priced; the TD Wealth Asset Allocation Committee remains overweight U.S. equities. Staying invested throughout changing economic cycles can lead to better long-term performance.
Since the end of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, equity markets have mostly moved higher, allowing investors to benefit from an upswing that has lasted for almost a decade. The bull market that began March 2009 has seen the S&P 500 Index rise more than 300 percent; a boon for investors that were severely impacted by the financial crisis 1. However, bull markets do not last forever, and global stock markets declined sharply in the final quarter of 2018. The decline of U.S. equity markets has led investors and pundits to believe a recession is imminent, raising the question, has all the easy money been made? Our answer is no! In fact, in early January, the TD Wealth Asset Allocation Committee (WAAC) upgraded equities from neutral to overweight; highlighting the firm s belief that the outlook for equities is now more positive, than it was a year ago. The current viewpoint of TD Asset Management (TDAM) is that U.S. equities are attractively priced, and in this paper, we will focus on the fundamental underpinnings of this belief; namely that a U.S. recession is unlikely and that valuations have returned to reasonable levels. Additionally, we will discuss current equity market opportunities and why we (TDAM) believe investors should consider remaining invested throughout the economic cycle. The current economic environment The synergistic relationship between the economy and financial markets is broadly understood by investors, as the economic exchanges between individuals and corporations are essential to the overall economic output (i.e. Gross Domestic Product or GDP) of a nation. As the contributing factors of a nation s GDP remains strong, such as low unemployment and strong business activity, financial markets, in theory, should mirror that strength. Though overall economic health of a nation is based on various factors, the phase of the economic cycle plays a determining role. In the case of corporations, the quality of their financial earnings and equity returns could be impacted by changes in the economic cycle; whereas individuals would be concerned about their employability and their ability to purchase essential goods and fulfill their financial commitments. Negative changes in the economic cycle could adversely impact corporations and individuals, which in turn would be reflected in financial markets. Current economic activity in the U.S. is strong and most companies are reporting quality earnings; however, this has not been reflected in recent market activity. Amongst developed economies, the U.S. is much further advanced in its economic expansion, as demonstrated by the growth in the labour market (i.e. historically low unemployment) and wage increases. The uptick in wage growth and fall in unemployment are strong indicators of a stable and growing U.S economy. As illustrated in the following charts (Chart 1 and Chart 2), average wage growth in the U.S. is high, relative to other developed countries. 1 The cumulative return of the S&P 500 Index TR between from March 2, 2009 to December 31, 2018 was 339.38%. Data taken from Bloomberg Financial L.P. Data as of December 2018. New Thinking Has all the easy money been made? PAGE 2
Chart 1: Unemployment rate among developed economies A comparative look at unemployment rates, from 2000-Q1 to 2018-Q4 (%" 14# (%" 14 # ($" 12# ($" 12 # (!" 10# (!" 10 # Percent!"#$"%&!"#$"%& Percent '" 8# &" 6# %" 4# $" 2#!" 0#!""" 2000-Q1!"# #!""" 2000-Q4!"$ #!""$ 2001-Q3!"%# &''& 2002-Q2!"&!""% 2003-Q1!"# #!""% 2003-Q4!"$ # &''$ 2004-Q3!"% &''( 2005-Q2!"& &'') 2006-Q1!"# Chart 2: Annual average wage growth among developed economies A comparative look at the growth in average wages, from 2000 to 2017 &'') 2006-Q4!"$ Data as of December 31, 2018. Source: OECD Data, TDAM. &''* 2007-Q3!"% &''+ 2008-Q2!"& &'', 2009-Q1!"# Germany France United Kingdom Italy Japan USA '"# 25$ 25 '"# $ '%# 20$ 20 '%# $ &"# 15$ 15 &"# $ &%# 10$ 10 &%# $ "# 5$ 5"# $ &'', 2009-Q4!"$ &'#' 2010-Q3!"% Time (Quarters) &'##!"& 2011-Q2 &'#&!"# 2012-Q1 &'#&!"$ 2012-Q4 &'#%!"% 2013-Q3!"$& 2014-Q2!"&#!"$' 2015-Q1!"# #!"$' 2015-Q4!"$ #!"$( 2016-Q3!"%# &'#*!"& 2017-Q2!"$) 2018-Q1!"# #!"$) 2018-Q4!"$ # 8'" # 6&" # 4%" # 2$" # 0!" # Percent Percent!"#$"%&!"#$"%& %# 0$ 0%# $!"#-5$ -5!"# $ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Years Data as of December 31, 2018. Source: OECD Data. TDAM. New Thinking Has all the easy money been made? PAGE 3
Despite the indications of a strong economy, and strong corporate earnings by U.S. companies, U.S. financial markets have been under pressure over the past several months; creating a disconnect between reported economic activity and financial market activity. As illustrated in the chart below (Chart 3), the sudden increase in investor anxiety has led to a market downturn. Chart 3: Investor Anxiety coinciding with Market Sell-off A contrasting look at the S&P 500 and VIX from Jan./18 to Dec./18 S&P 500 Index Level VIX Index Level 4-Year VIX Index Average S&P 500 Index Level $&+"! 2950 2900 $&+!! $&*"! 2850 $&*!! 2800 $&)"! 2750 $&)!! 2700 $&("! 2650 2600 $&(!! $&""! 2550 $&"!! 2500 $&'"! 2450 $&'!! 2400 $&%"! 2350 2300 $&%!! Jan-18!"# $%&! Feb-18 '() $%&! Mar-18 *"+ $%&! Apr-18,-+ $%&! *". May-18 $%&! Jun-18!/# $%&! Jul-18!/0$%&! Aug-18,/1 $%&! Sep-18 2(- $%&! Oct-18 345$%&! Nov-18 678$%&! Dec-18 9(4 $%&! Time (Months)! 0 " 5 #! 10 #" 15 $! 20 $" 25 %! 30 %" 35 VIX Index Level (Inverted) 9:;0:4</=0>/?/@01:4?/A5/<8 Data as of December 31, 2018. Source: TDAM, Bloomberg Financial L.P. Please Note: 4-Year average calculated from Jan./14 to Dec./18. The CBOE Volatility Index or 'Fear Index', known by its ticker symbol VIX, is a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility implied by S&P 500 Index options. Why the rise in market volatility? The increase in market volatility and heightened investor anxiety can be partly attributed to macroeconomic headwinds, such as the escalating U.S.-China trade war and the raising of interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve (i.e. the 'Fed'). Regarding trade, the U.S. continues to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, though the impact of these tariffs on U.S. consumers has so far been marginal, they may become significant over time. The U.S. has also imposed protectionist measures with other major trading partners, such as Canada, Mexico and the European Union. In response to U.S. trade actions, China and other countries have implemented tariffs on U.S. goods. To date, China's measures have been relatively restrained. However, as the largest U.S. trading partner, China's retaliatory measures could have more far-reaching implications on the U.S. economy, should they decide to be more aggressive in their approach. Investors understand the interconnectedness of Chinese manufacturing and U.S. businesses; and realize the negative implications to those businesses if trade tensions escalate. Presently, both nations are negotiating the terms of a new trade agreement that seeks to benefit both economies. During this negotiation period, all tariffs have been suspended. Despite the encouraging signs from the trade talks between China and the U.S., significant risk remains, which can adversely impact U.S. companies and their investors. New Thinking Has all the easy money been made? PAGE 4
In the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, central banks around the world lowered interest rates to stimulate growth. More recently, rates have been on the rise, advancing towards more normalized monetary policy, as many countries have begun to emerge from the depths of the financial crisis with increased economic production and rising inflation. As mentioned earlier, the U.S. is much further advanced in its economic expansion. The low interest rate environment, which revived the U.S. economy, also established a 'new normal' regarding interest rate expectations in the minds of investors. As the Fed and other central banks begin to remove their supportive policies, by raising interest rates and ending large-scale purchasing of government bonds, investors are beginning to worry about the longevity of the current economic cycle given that a major stimulating force behind it is being withdrawn. Declining investor confidence in the actions of the Fed is being reflected in capital markets, as anxiety spikes with each rate increase and the resulting market sell-offs reach greater depths (see Chart 4, below). Chart 4: Equity Markets vs. Interest Rates A contrasting look at the S&P 500 Drawdown and US Treasury 10-yr yield, from Jan./17 to Dec./18 S&P 500 Drawdown US Treasury 10-yr Yield ( "( $ 0% 3.3 ) ") $ % S&P 500 Drawdown (%) *' "(-2 $ % *, "(-4 $ % *+"( -6 $ % *&"( -8 $ % *! ( "( -10 $ % *! ' "( -12 $ % *!, "( -14 $ % *! +"( -16 $ % *! &"( -18 $ % *' (-20 "( $ % 3.0 ) "( $ % 2.8 ' "&$ % 2.5 ' "#$ % 2.3 ' ") $ % 2.0 ' "( $ % 1.8! "&$ % 1.5! "#$ % 10-Year Yield (%) Dec-2018 Nov-2018 Oct-2018 Sep-2018 Aug-2018 Jul-2018 Jun-2018 May-2018 Apr-2018 Mar-2018 Feb-2018 Jan-2018 Dec-2017 Nov-2017 Oct-2017 Sep-2017 Aug-2017 Jul-2017 Jun-2017 May-2017 Apr-2017 Mar-2017 Feb-2017 Jan-2017 Time (Months) Data as of December 31.2018. Source: TDAM & Bloomberg Financial L.P. December 2018. In the present, the Fed has adopted a neutral stance forgoing further raising interest rates, to prevent the economy from experiencing a downturn. The U.S. economy is at a pivotal point, given the actions of the Federal Reserve, the current uncertainty stemming from U.S.-China trade relations and other macroeconomic events. For investors, the confluence of these events has led many to believe an economic downturn is near, resulting in a flight to safety. This raises the question; has the near decadelong prosperity come to an end? Has all the easy money been made by investors? Again, our answer is no. Evaluating the economy Our response to this question is based on an indepth look at the U.S. economy. As noted earlier, growth in employment and wages are important indicators of a strong economy and their forwardlooking trajectories are telling of a country's overall economic health. In evaluating the U.S. economy, a forecast of the U.S labour and consumer market was developed using an equally-weighted index of relevant economic variables; back-tested over a 40-year period, allowing for changes in the economic cycle to be reflected. By taking this data- New Thinking Has all the easy money been made? PAGE 5
driven approach, we can identify and quantify previous recessions, understand the conditions that created them and determine if one is likely to occur in the near future. The following two charts (Chart 5a & Chart 5b) illustrate the findings of our data analysis and suggest that the U.S. economy will not enter a recession in the near term (i.e. 12-18 months). Chart 5a: U.S. Labour Momentum Recession Indicator Captures growth rate in U.S. Labour Conditions as an indicator for recessions Recession Indicator U.S. Labour Momentum Index U.S.Labour Indicator (%) U.S. Consumption Indicator (%) $!& ' 20 ")& 16' "$& 12' %&' 8 (& 4'!& 0' #(& -4' #%&' -8 #"$& -12' #")& -16' #$!& -20' #$(& -24' #$%&' -28 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 Dec-2016 Dec-2016 Dec-2015 Dec-2015 Dec-2014 Dec-2014 Dec-2013 Dec-2013 Dec-2012 Dec-2012 Dec-2011 Dec-2011 Dec-2010 Dec-2010 Dec-2009 Dec-2009 Dec-2008 Dec-2008 Dec-2007 Dec-2007 Dec-2006 Dec-2006 Dec-2005 Dec-2005 Dec-2004 Dec-2004 Dec-2003 Dec-2003 Dec-2002 Dec-2002 Dec-2001 Dec-2001 Dec-2000 Dec-2000 Dec-1999 Dec-1999 Dec-1998 Dec-1998 Dec-1997 Dec-1997 Dec-1996 Dec-1996 Dec-1995 Dec-1995 Dec-1994 Dec-1994 Dec-1993 Dec-1993 Dec-1992 Dec-1992 Dec-1991 Dec-1991 Dec-1990 Dec-1990 Dec-1989 Dec-1989 Dec-1988 Dec-1988 Dec-1987 Dec-1987 Dec-1986 Dec-1986 Dec-1985 Dec-1985 Dec-1984 Dec-1984 Dec-1983 Dec-1983 Dec-1982 Dec-1982 Dec-1981 Dec-1981 Dec-1980 Dec-1980 Dec-1979 Dec-1979 Dec-1978 Dec-1978 Dec-1977 Dec-1977 Dec-1976 Dec-1976 Dec-1975 Dec-1975 Dec-1974 Dec-1974 Dec-1973 Dec-1973 Dec-1972 Dec-1972 Dec-1971 Dec-1971 Chart 5b: U.S. Consumer Recession Indicator Consumption, Income, Home Prices and Confidence as an indicator for Recessions Data as of December 31, 2018. Source: TDAM, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Indicator falling below zero indicates a high likelihood of an upcoming recession Calculated as the average of 1 yr % Change in: (i) Non-Farm Payrolls; (ii) Initial Jobless Claims; (iii) Unemployment Rate and; (iv) Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours. Years Years Recession Indicator Dec-2018 Dec-2018 Dec-2017 Dec-2017 U.S. Consumer Index Indicator falling below 0% indicates a high likelihood of a recession Calculated as average YoY % growth in: (i) Real Personal Income ex-transfer payments; (ii) Real Retail Sales; (iii) Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE); (iv) Case Shiller Home Price index and; (v) Consumer Confidence New Thinking Has all the easy money been made? PAGE 6
Similar analysis was conduced around the U.S. financial markets and manufacturing sector; our models showed a weak indication of a near term recession occurring in the in financial markets, whereas the manufacturing sector showed no signs of an imminent recession. Based on the combination of these analyses, the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the near term is low. Evaluating the market Apart from the actions of the Fed and current U.S.-China trade relations, various global macroeconomic events, such as a strengthening U.S. dollar and declining commodity prices, have also contributed to the current low-growth environment present within the U.S. economy. Though this economic period has been one of the weakest post-war era recoveries, corporate fundamentals have been strong and are positively growing. A key reason for the observable strength of U.S. corporate fundamentals is the operational efficiencies gained through technological advancements, such as automation and production outsourcing. As U.S. corporations overhaul their manufacturing plants with new technology capable of producing products at a faster pace and lower cost per unit or as many companies outsource their production facilities to low-cost economies; their variable costs of production begins to fall over time. The costsavings gained through increased manufacturing efficiency has resulted in rising operating margins for U.S. companies; as indicated by the S&P 500 Index 2. As observed in Chart 6 below, the operating margin of the S&P 500 Index has trended mostly upward since 2010, highlighting the increasing ability of U.S. companies to generate profits from their business operations, even during global macroeconomic events such as the European debt crisis, a slowing Chinese economy, collapsing commodity prices and rising geopolitical tensions. The profitability of U.S. companies has remained resilient through these events and is indicative of the strong earnings opportunity, available to investors. Chart 6: The increasing operational efficiency of U.S. Companies over time A historical look at the quarterly operating margin of of the S&P 500 Index, from 1990 to 2018 15 %* Operating Margin Operating Margin Quotient Level 14 %) 13 %( 12 %' %% 11 10 %& 9$ 8# 7" 6! 1990 %$$& 1992 %$$' 1994 %$$) 1996 %$$! 1998 %$$# 2000 '&&& 2002 '&&' 2004 '&&) 2006 '&&! 2008 '&&# 2010 '&%& 2012 '&%' 2014 '&%) 2016 '&%! 2018 '&%# Data as of December 31, 2018. Source: TDAM, Blomberg Financial L.P. Years 2 Operating Margin measures how much profit a company makes on a dollar of sales, after paying variable costs of production such as wages and raw materials, but before paying interest or tax. It is calculated by dividing a company's operating profit by its net sales. New Thinking Has all the easy money been made? PAGE 7
Though operating margin can gauge the profitability of a business, the free cash flow production of a business is of equal importance 3. The profitability of a company indicates the effectiveness of their business model, whereas free cash flow indicates the company's ability to return value to shareholders through dividend payments or stock repurchases. Hence, the value of a company is based on how efficient they are at maximizing their revenues, converting said revenues into profits and disbursing cash from the profits generated to shareholders. The chart below (Chart 7) illustrates the free cash flow per share of the S&P 500 Index over two decades. As observed, the cash-generating capacity of U.S. companies has significantly risen over time; indicating the increasing ability of U.S. companies to grow shareholder value by paying dividends or buying back stock. Alternatively, companies can reinvest these funds into their company, towards profit-generating projects. Chart 7: The cash-generating capacity of the S&P 500 Index has increased in recent years A historical look at the annual Free Cash Flow per share of the S&P 500 Index, from 1992 to 2018 160 140 130 142 Free Cash Flow Per Share 120 100 80 60 40 20 19 20 29 27 26 30 34 41 33 32 45 66 61 50 45 34 89 94 97 111 96 111 114 112 111 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Years Data as of December 2018. Source: TDAM, Bloomberg Financial L.P. In reviewing the past five calendar years, a period in which macroeconomic uncertainty has been elevated, the S&P 500 Index has increased its market capitalization by (approx.) 32% 4. Simply put, in a market environment where investor sentiment has been low and uncertainty about the health of the U.S. economy has been high; U.S. companies have increased aggregate shareholder value by almost a third. Within the current low-growth macroeconomic environment, U.S. equities have reward investors immensely, as strong Free Cash Flow production, coupled with solid profitability, has resulted in increased shareholder value. If the U.S. economy is heading towards a recession, which our models do not indicate, then not participating in this value creation can be a lost opportunity for investors. 3 Free Cash Flow represents the cash a company generates after cash outflows to support operations and maintain its capital assets. Simply, Free Cash Flow is the cash left over after a company pays for its operating expenses and capital expenditures. 4 The FCF per share of the S&P 500 Index from 2014 to 2018 totaled 591. The aggregated FCF is divided by the final index price level of the S&P 500 Index on December 2013 (i.e. 1,848), resulting in 32%. Hence the market capitalization of the S&P 500 index has increased by (approx.) 32% over a 5-year period. Data taken from Bloomberg Financial L.P. Data as of December 2018. New Thinking Has all the easy money been made? PAGE 8
Identifying the opportunity Though many investors are apprehensive about investing in the current market environment, they should also recognize the potential opportunity within it, as recent volatility has resulted in more attractive valuations for many publicly traded companies. In fact, price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of the S&P 500 over recent months indicate that a valuation reduction has occurred, which we believe is unjustified 5. The chart below (Chart 8) illustrates how the aggregate P/E valuation of the S&P 500 Index has fallen from its earlier highs. Chart 8: Market Anxiety can be the begining of Investor Opportunity A constrasting look at the S&P 500 Index and S&P 500 Index P/E Ratio, from Jan./18 to Dec./18 S&P 500 Index S&P 500 Index P/E 2950 24 2900 2850 23 S&P 500 Index Price Level 2800 2750 2700 2650 2600 2550 2500 22 21 20 19 18 S&P 500 Index P/E 2450 17 2400 2350 16 2300 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 15 Time (Months) Data as of December 2018. Source: TDAM, Bloomberg Financial L.P. For investors, the market downturn can be an opportunity to invest in undervalued companies before the market rebounds. As observed in Chart 8, the valuations for companies within the U.S. are now below their earlier highs, creating a timely opportunity for investors to consider purchasing and/or increasing their holdings of high-quality companies within their portfolio. In the long run, as the market begins to move upwards, investors will benefit from the price appreciation and income (i.e. dividends) generated from the equities of these companies. Historically, this has proven to be a winning strategy. The following chart (Chart 9) depicts the total returns of the S&P 500 in the year following a 20% decline in trailing P/E ratios from 1926 to present. 5 Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is calculated by dividing a stock market's value or price by the aggregate earnings per share of all companies over the next 12 months. A lower number represents better value. New Thinking Has all the easy money been made? PAGE 9
Chart 9: S&P 500 Index Total Returns in the Year Following a (20%) Decline in Trailing-P/E Ratios, From 1926 to December 2018 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 33.5% 20% 4.0% 34.4% 31.1% 25.7% 38.4% 31.7% 22.6% 14.8% 15.6% 16.3% 10.6% 9.8% 6.6% 16.5% 12.1% 0% -10% -13.9% -20% -19.0% -30% -40% Nov 1929 1929-26.1% Oct 1931 1931 Jul 1934 1934-34.3% Apr Apr 1937 1939 1937 1939 Sep 1946 1946 Jun 1962 1962 Aug 1966 Aug 1966 May 1970 May 1970 May 1973 1973 May 1977 1977 Feb 1982 1982 May 1984 May 1984 Source: TDAM, Emperical Reserch Parners. Bloomberg Finance L.P. As of December 2018. Oct 1987 1987 Mar 1994-12.2% Nov 2000 Jul 2002 1994 2000 2002 Oct 2005 2005 Oct 2008 2008 Feb 2010 2010 14 Episodes Since 1950 All Months 1926-2018 14 All Episodes Months Since 1926-2018 1950 As Chart 9 illustrates, the market typically rebounds after a precipitous fall in valuations. The proven strategy for long-term investors is to remain invested during market turbulence, as timing the top and/or bottom of market movements is exceptionally difficult. By staying invested, investors can capture the early gains of the market resurgence. Furthermore, with the cash-on-hand investors may have, they are able to purchase additional shares and/or units of investments they currently have or desire to include in their portfolio. Though the current chaos in U.S. markets may lead many investors to believe that a recession is imminent, our data-driven approach indicates otherwise. In fact, there have been many calls by market pundits and observers for the end of the current bull market, with many market observers declaring the end of 'easy money' opportunities at various points in time; since the end of financial crisis. The investors that heeded those calls, lost out on the growth in equity markets (i.e. the easy money), that would have benefitted their portfolio. easy money New Thinking Has all the easy money been made? PAGE 10
Chart 10: A long term view can lead to easy money being made The peformance of the S&P 500 Index and equity flow in the U.S., from Jan./07 to Dec./18 S&P 500 Total Return Index U.S. Equity Flow 200% Easy money being made, again? $4,000,000 S&P 500 Index Return (%) 150% 100% 50% 0% 0 Barron's Nov. 2009 The Street May 2012 MarketWatch Nov. 2011 Morningstar Dec. 2013 CNBC Mar. 2015 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 $0 U.S. Equity Flow -50% -$1,000,000-100% -$2,000,000 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Time (Months) Easy Money is in reference to investors benefitting from the stock markert's upward movement/price appreciation; particuarly over the past decade. Data as of December 2018. Source: TDAM, Bloomberg Finance L.P. Though no one can definitively state when the current bull run will come to an end, based on the economic indicators we have evaluated (i.e. Labour Markets, Consumer Market, Financial Market and Manufacturing Sector), we believe there is no indication of a recession occurring in the near term. Presently, U.S. Corporate fundamentals are strong and market valuation of U.S. equities are reasonably priced. Despite current volatility in the U.S. equity market, we see investor panic as unwarranted, if economic growth and corporate fundamentals remain favorable; which we believe them to be. This can present a timely opportunity for patient investors, with a long-term investment time horizon, to capitalize on the compounding growth potential of quality businesses. Finally, TDAM believes that patience, investment diligence and having a long-term outlook can position investors to benefit from opportune moments that arise in equity markets; allowing them to participate in easy money opportunities as they become available. New Thinking Has all the easy money been made? PAGE 11
Appendix 6 Provided below are the definitions for the economic variables referenced in Charts 5a and 5b: Non-Farm Payrolls: Nonfarm payroll is a term used in the U.S. to refer to any job with the exception of farm work, unincorporated self-employment and employment by private households, nonprofit organizations and the military and intelligence agencies. Proprietors are also excluded. Initial Jobless Claims: Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate is a measure of the prevalence of unemployment and it is calculated as a percentage by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by all individuals currently in the labor force. During periods of recession, an economy usually experiences a relatively high unemployment rate. Index of Aggregate Weekly Hours: Indexes of aggregate weekly hours are calculated by dividing the current month's aggregate hours by the average of the 12 monthly figures, for the base year. For basic industries, the hours aggregates are the product of average weekly hours and employment of workers to which the hours apply (all employees or production and nonsupervisory employees). At all higher levels of industry aggregation, hours aggregates are the sum of the component. Real Personal Income ex-transfer payments: Real personal income less transfer payments, a measure intended to strip out some of the impact of automatic stabilizers in the personal income data. Real Retail Sales: The U.S. Census Bureau maintained time series of monthly sales and end-of-month inventory estimates of U.S. retailers. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE): A measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. Case Shiller Home Price Index: A monthly index that tracks changes in the price of residential real estate in 20 major metropolitan regions in the U.S. Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence is an economic indicator that measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation. 6 The definitions of the economic terms referenced in this document were taken from the glossary of the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis website. https://www.bea.gov/ ppendi
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