Infotrak Popularity Poll November 2012 Prepared By Infotrak Research & Consulting P.O Box 23081,00100 GPO Nairobi Manyani East Rd, Lavington www.infotrakresesarch.com
Methodology The poll was conducted and sponsored by Infotrak Research & Consulting between 29 th October to 1 st November, 2012 A sample of 1500 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,462,358 translating into a minimum margin of error of -/+ 2.53 at 95% degree of confidence. The survey was conducted in half of the 47 counties of Kenya Using the 2009 Kenya Population & Housing Census as the sample frame, the sample was designed using Population Proportionate to Size (PPS) and mainly entailed; Use of stratification, random and systematic sampling in drawing regions to be covered Ensuring further distribution by area, age and gender Using the Constituencies as the key administrative boundary Ensured that every person in the sampled area had a known chance of being selected Fieldwork was using face to face interviews 25% of the interviews were back checked for quality control purposes and data entered twice for validation purposes Data processing & analysis was carried using CS-Pro and IBM SPSS 20.0 The questions asked of respondents are highlighted for each graphic presentation
Margin of Error explained Margin of error decreases as the sample size increases, but only up to a certain point. A very small sample, such as 50 respondents, has about a 14 percent margin of error while a sample of 1,000 has a margin of error of 3 percent. By doubling the sample to 2,000, the margin of error only decreases from +/-3 percent to +/- 2 percent and +/-1.8 percent for a sample size of 4000. This illustrates that there are diminishing returns when trying to reduce the margin of error by increasing the sample size. What is imperative is to ensure that the sample is representative of the universe you wish to cover. This is why in a continent the size of USA, most sample sizes range between 1000-3000 covering the entire population. And the results are more or less accurate A 95 percent level of confidence is the acceptable standard for social surveys.
Variability 50 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Margin of Error Illustration 1800 2000 2200 2400 3000 4500 6000 8000 10000 16.0 14.0 13.9 Margin of Error 12.0 10.0 9.8 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 6.9 4.9 3.7 3.3 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.21.11.0 Sample size
The Sample distribution County Constituency Sample Mombasa Changamwe 28 4% Nyali 35 63 Kwale Kinango 33 2% 33 Kilifi Kilifi South 31 4% Ganze 25 56 Garissa Lagdera 30 2% 30 Meru Igembe Central 28 5% Tigania East 24 South Imenti 27 79 Kitui Mwingi East 27 4% Kitui Central 29 57 Machakos Masinga 17 4% Mavoko 19 Mwala 22 58 Nyeri Mathira 25 3% Nyeri Town 20 45 Murang a Kiharu 58 4% 58 Kiambu Gatundu South 21 7% Thika Town* 31 Githunguri 28 Kabete 26 106 West Pokot Sigor 23 2% 23 Trans Nzoia Kwanza 19 3% Cherangany 22 County Constituency Sample Nandi Tinderet 18 3% ChemuSEiNorth) (Emgwen 22 40 Nakuru Molo 18 6% Naivasha 33 Kuresoi South 17 Nakuru Town West 22 91 Narok Kilgoris 28 3% Narok East 13 40 Kericho Kipkelion East 16 3% Bureti 25 41 Kakamega Malava 35 6% Navakholo 23 Matungu 25 84 Bungoma Mt. Elgon 28 4% Kanduyi 38 66 Busia Teso North 31 4% Matayos 30 61 Kisumu Kisumu Central 28 3% Muhoroni 24 52 Migori Uriri 18 3% Kuria West 25 43 Kisii South Mugirango 36 4% Kitutu Chache North 24 60 Nairobi Westlands 23 15% Dagoretti 24 Kibra* 23 Kasarani 26 Embakasi South* 26 Embakasi Central* 25
The Survey Findings
The direction Kenya is taking
49% of the surveyed respondents are of the view that the country is not moving in the right direction About five in every ten surveyed respondents (49%) were of the opinion that the country is not moving in the right direction Don t Know, 6% Yes, 45% It is mainly the youth (18-35 years) who feel that the country is moving in the right direction. No, 49% 100% Yes No Don t Know 80% 60% 40% 50% 43% 40% 54% 49% 51% 45% 45% 51% 42% 46% 47% 35% 53% 55% 42% 20% 0% 12% 7% 6% 6% 4% 7% 7% 3% 18-20 Yrs. 21-25 Yrs. 26-30 Yrs. 31-35 Yrs. 36-40 Yrs. 41-45 Yrs. 46-50 Yrs. 51 Yrs+ In your opinion, do you think the country is moving in the right direction? n = 1500
Why they opine that the country is either moving or not moving in the right direction Why they opine the country is moving in the right direction Why they opine the country isn t moving in the right direction New policies/implementation of the constitution 37% High taxes/living standards 41% Vetting of the judges 26% Corruption 29% Peace/reconciliation efforts Education /enlighten of the people Change from the usual norm/development projects are 24% 21% 21% Unemployment Tribalism/negative ethnicity/nepotism Delay in enacting the constitution/ implementation of policies Poor politics/ wrangles/power wrangles 23% 22% 22% 19% Improvement in good leadership 17% Insecurity 18% Women empowerment/gender equity 17% Bad leadership/pretence/injustice 17% Involvement of the people in decision making processes Equity/Equal distribution of resources 14% 12% Lack of unity Things are still being done like in the old days. CDF, corruption Self-centered leaders 12% 9% 8% Devolution/Decentralization 10% n = 663 Violation of human rights 8% n = 737 Welfare improvement 8% Poor Interpretation Of The Constitution/No Civic Education 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% In your opinion, do you think the country is moving in the right direction? Explain your answer..
Popularity of presidential aspirants
35% of Kenyans would vote for Raila Odinga as their President if elections were held today 100% If presidential elections were held today, 35.4 % of Kenyans would vote for Raila Odinga as their President with a further 24.0% of the surveyed respondents indicating they would vote for Uhuru Kenyatta This would necessitate a run off between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta Others mentioned who had less than 1% include; Moses Wetangula Prof. Ole Kiyapi Cyrus Jirongo 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 35.4% 24.0% 10.3% 10.0% 8.8% Apart from President Kibaki, whom would you vote for as your President if presidential elections were to be held today? n = 1500 4.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.9%
Why they would vote for various presidential hopefuls 35% Development conscious, Fighter for the less fortunate, Hardworking, Brave and Experienced 24% Young & energetic, Popular, Visionary & focused, Person of integrity and Brave
Why they would vote for various presidential hopefuls 10.3% Performer, Hardworking, Focused & visionary, young & energetic and activist/fighter for less fortunate 10% Experienced, Performer, Person of integrity, Non tribal and Humble 8.8% Humble, Development conscious, Popular, Transparent and Hardworking
Why they would vote for various presidential hopefuls 4.3% Courageous, Person of integrity, Transparent, Hardworking and Visionary & focused 2.0% Development conscious, Hardworking, Person of integrity, Experienced, Intelligent and Young & energetic
Trend analysis of popularity of presidential aspirants since February 2012 Trend analysis of Infotrak polls indicate that Musalia Mudavadi and Uhuru Kenyatta are the main gainers since February this year at 7% and 6% respectively. On the other hand, Raila Odinga s popularity declined by 2.6% since February this year. 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta William Ruto Kalonzo Musyoka Musalia Mudavadi Martha Karua Peter Kenneth Eugene Wamalwa Raphael Tuju Undecide d Feb_2012 38.0% 18.0% 7.0% 6.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.6% 13.0% 6.0% March_2012 42.3% 21.6% 4.9% 9.0% 4.8% 5.2% 1.6% 0.6% 1.9% 5.0% 3.1% May_2012 35.0% 17.3% 9.9% 8.8% 8.5% 3.9% 2.0% 1.7% 1.3% 8.8% 1.7% June_2012 36.6% 21.9% 9.4% 9.6% 8.4% 5.0% 2.3% 1.2% 0.7% 3.0% 0.6% Oct_2012 35.4% 24.0% 10.3% 8.8% 10.0% 4.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 1.9% 1.5% Others
Analysis By Region Presidential Coast N. Eastern Eastern Central R. Valley Nyanza Western Nairobi Aggregate Raila Odinga 60% 47% 18% 16% 28% 66% 29% 41% 35.4% Uhuru Kenyatta 11% 18% 32% 66% 20% 11% 3% 24% 24% William Ruto 3% 8% 3% 1% 29% 4% 11% 2% 10.3% Musalia Mudavadi 3% 4% 4% 3% 9% 7% 44% 6% 10% Kalonzo Musyoka 8% 12% 33% 4% 2% 3% 1% 11% 8.8% Martha Karua 7% - 4% 6% 4% 6% 3% 3% 4.3% Peter Kenneth 2% - 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 2% Eugene Wamalwa - - 1% 1% 3% - 4% - 1.3% Charity Ngilu 2% - 2% - - 1% 1% 1% 0.5% Raphael Tuju - - 1% 1% - - 1% 0.5% Others 1% - 1% 1% 1% 7% 1% Undecided 2% 12% 2% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1.9% Apart from President Kibaki, whom would you vote for as your President if presidential elections were to be held today?
Analysis By Age Presidential Candidate 18-20 Yrs. 21-25 Yrs. 26-30 Yrs. 31-35 Yrs. 36-40 Yrs. 41-45 Yrs. 46-50 Yrs. 51 Yrs+ Aggregate Raila Odinga 32% 38% 35% 36% 38% 39% 18% 29% 35.4% Uhuru Kenyatta 21% 26% 27% 24% 18% 18% 33% 26% 24% William Ruto 20% 9% 10% 8% 11% 11% 6% 7% 10.3% Musalia Mudavadi 8% 10% 9% 9% 12% 9% 12% 17% 10% Kalonzo Musyoka 10% 7% 10% 4% 9% 12% 18% 10% 8.8% Martha Karua 3% 3% 4% 6% 6% 4% 6% 4% 4.3% Peter Kenneth 2% 2% 3% 4% 2% 1% 2% - 2% Eugene Wamalwa 1% 1% 5% 2% - - 3% 1.3% Charity Ngilu 1% 1% 0.3% - - - - 3% 0.5% Raphael Tuju 1% 0.3% - 0.4% - 2% - 0.5% Others 1% 1% 1% 2% 0.4% 1% 2% 1% 1% Undecided 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 4% 2% 1.9% Apart from President Kibaki, whom would you vote for as your President if presidential elections were to be held today?
Analysis By Gender Presidential Candidate Male Female Aggregate Raila Odinga 39% 28% 35.4% Uhuru Kenyatta 22% 28% 24% William Ruto 10% 11% 10.3% Musalia Mudavadi 12% 7% 10% Kalonzo Musyoka 8% 10% 8.8% Martha Karua 2% 8% 4.3% Peter Kenneth 2% 2% 2% Eugene Wamalwa 2% 1% 1.3% Charity Ngilu 0% 1% 0.5% More males (39%) than Females (28%)indicated they would vote Raila Odinga as their president if elections were held today. On the other hand, more females (28%) than males (22%) indicated they would vote for Uhuru Kenyatta if elections are held today Raphael Tuju 1% 0% 0.5% Others 1% 1% 1% Undecided 2% 2% 1.9% n = 1500 Apart from President Kibaki, whom would you vote for as your President if presidential elections were to be held today?
Likability of presidential aspirants Poll Question: On a scale of 1-5 where one is don t like at all and 5 is like very much how would you rate you re the following presidential candidates likeability
Presidential Aspirants Likeability Index MUSALIA RUTO 3.58 3.53 RAILA UHURU 3.47 3.47
Presidential Aspirants Likeability Index KALONZO MARTHA 3.35 3.31 PETER KENNETH CHARITY NGILU 3.24 3.07
Likability of Presidential Candidates Presidential Candidate I don t like him /her at all % I somewhat don t like him/her % I neither like nor don t like them too much % I somewhat like him/her % I like him/her very much % Mean Score (Out of 5) Percentage Mean Musalia Mudavadi 6.3 10.5 26 32.9 24.4 3.58 71.6% William Ruto 9.5 11.6 22.2 29.7 26.9 3.53 70.6% Raila Odinga 22.7 8.1 11.5 14.9 42.7 3.47 69.4% Uhuru Kenyatta 14.6 11.4 18.2 24.7 31.2 3.47 69.4% Kalonzo Musyoka 10.5 13.6 28 26.3 21.7 3.35 67.0% Martha Karua 9.2 13.6 31.1 29.4 16.7 3.31 66.2% Peter Kennneth 10.2 13.1 34 27.9 14.8 3.24 64.8% Charity Ngilu 12.9 15.7 33.5 27.9 10.1 3.07 61.4% Eugine Wamalwa 15.8 16.2 32.7 25 10.3 2.98 59.6% Moses Wetangula 18.9 21.3 33.9 20.1 5.7 2.72 54.4% Prof.Ole Kiyapi 20.6 19 36 19 5.4 2.70 54.0% Raphael Tuju 19.9 18.6 38.5 18.1 4.9 2.69 53.8% Cyrus Jirongo 24.8 18.6 37.9 15.1 3.6 2.54 50.8% Maina Njenga 39.5 18.6 24 13.9 4 2.24 44.8% On a scale of 1-5 where one is don t like at all and 5 is like very much how would you rate you re the following presidential candidates likeability n = 1487
Political Parties
Favourite Political Party ODM TNA URP UDF WDM NARC-K NFK 11% 10% 7% 3% 1% 25% 39% Orange Democratic Party(ODM) and the National Alliance(TNA) political parties enjoy majority support at 39% and 25% respectively. Others are URP (11%), UDF (10%), WDM (7%) and NARC Kenya (3%). PNU 1% FORD-K 1% UDM KNC NARC 1% 1% 1% Generally, which is your favourite Political Party and why? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% n = 1500
Why various political parties are their favourite Popular political party, the party has brought development, Non tribal party, democratic party, stable party, independent party Party of my tribe, Party for my preferred presidential candidate, Stable Party, independent party, non tribal party, has good leadership Democratic party, Non tribal party, Good leadership, Party of development, Party for my presidential aspirant, Independent party
Why various political parties are their favourite Independent party, good leadership, non tribal party, party of my tribe, stable party, party of my preferred presidential aspirant It is a stable party, good leadership, party of my tribe, democratic party Party of my preferred presidential candidate, independent party, party of development, stable party
Trend analysis of political party popularity since May 2012 Trend analysis of Infotrak polls indicate that popularity of ODM has declined by 10% since May this year. PNU s and WDM s popularity have also declined by 10% and 4% respectively since May this year. On the other hand, TNA,UDF and URP political parties have gained in popularity by 13%, 3% and 2% respectively. 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Comparative analysis on the popularity of Political Parties ODM TNA URP UDF WDM NARC-K PNU Other Political Parties May_2012 49% 9% 7% 11% 3% 11% 10% June_2012 42% 12% 8% 6% 8% 2% 11% 11% October_2012 39% 25% 11% 10% 7% 3% 1% 5% Generally, which is your favourite Political Party?
Demographics
SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION BY REGION 50% 40% 30% 24% 20% 10% 15% 14% 13% 11% 11% 8% 4% 0% Rift Valley Eastern Central Nyanza Nairobi Western Coast North Eastern n = 1500
SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION BY GENDER Male, 49% Female, 51% n = 1500
SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION BY AGE 35% 32% 30% 25% 23% 20% 15% 10% 12% 12% 10% 5% 5% 3% 3% 0% 18-20 Yrs 21-25 Yrs 26-30 Yrs 31-35 Yrs 36-40 Yrs 41-45 Yrs 46-50 Yrs 51+ Yrs n = 1500
SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION BY EDUCATION LEVEL 50% 40% 40% 33% 30% 20% 10% 14% 11% 0% Primary Secondary College University Post graduate 1% n = 1500
SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION LOCATION Urban, 32% Rural, 68% n = 1500
ABOUT INFOTRAK POLL Infotrak Research and Consulting (hereinafter referred to as Infotrak) is a highly reputed research company with exceptional qualifications and extensive experience in high quality research. Infotrak s technical strengths lie in its ability to efficiently design and field social science surveys and impact evaluations of the highest quality and to manage survey, administrative, and program data for research and evaluation purposes. The company was founded and incorporated under the Laws of Kenya in 2004 following the vision of the founder to provide the Pan African Market with suitable information solutions required to sustain the needs of the ever-growing economies. Headquartered in Nairobi Kenya, Infotrak also has affiliate offices in Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria and field contacts in more than 12 other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Research and Consultancy firm, which is currently one of the fastest growing in the region, attributes its rapid growth to not only innovation, high level of professionalism and dynamism, but also on the excellent caliber of personnel who have been described by many as Business Minds who specialize in research Infotrak has a long history in conducting research and has carried out similar projects for various clients. We have set a worldwide standard in the efficient conduct of scientifically rigorous data collection efforts, which encompass the development of survey instruments, the design of efficiently executable and scientifically valid samples, survey administration and data acquisition, data processing, and analysis. Today, Infotrak is one of the most authoritative pollsters in Kenya, providing political opinion polling under the Infotrak Poll flagship brand. In the recent constitutional referendum in Kenya, Infotrak was the only research firm which accurately predicted the outcome of the referendum. The company has retained both permanent and temporary employees to discharge its activities. The team is comprised of highly motivated, talented and experienced professionals with academic competence in diverse fields. The team has extensive and proven experience in both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies.