Infotrak Harris Poll Kenyans take on the Current Political Situation Prepared by Infotrak Research & Consulting A member of Harris Interactive Global Network January 2011
The Methodology
The Methodology A sample of 1500 respondents was interviewed to represent the Kenyan adult population of 19,000,000 translating into a margin of error of /+ 2.5 at 95% level of confidence. The survey was conducted in all regions of Kenya The sampling frame was developed using population proportionate to size. The sample was further split into key demographic groups i.e. by region, age and gender. The key administrative boundary was district of residence which was further split into both urban and rural Sampling technique adopted was purposive, random and systematic. This was done so as to ensure that that every respondent who was 18 years and above was given an equal opportunity to participate. From the same sample, specific attention was given to both male and female living in urban and rural Kenya Fieldwork was conducted through face to face interviews The survey was conducted between 24 th 27 th January, 2011
Margin of Error explained Margin of error decreases as the sample size increases, but only upto a certain point. A very small sample, such as 50 respondents, has about a 14 percent margin of error while a sample of 1,000 has a margin of error of 3 percent. By doubling the sample to 2,000, the margin of error only decreases from +/ 3 percent to +/ 2 percent and +/ 1.8 18 percent for a sample size of 4000. This illustrates that there are diminishing returns when trying to reduce the margin of error by increasing the sample size. What is imperative is to ensure that the sample is representative of the universe you wish to cover. This is why in a continent the size of USA, most sample sizes range between 1000 3000 covering the entire population. And the results are more or less accurate. A 95 percent level of confidence is the acceptable standard for social surveys.
Margin of Error Illustration 16.0 14.0 13.9 Margin of Error 12.0 10.0 9.8 Variability 80 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 6.9 4.9 3.7 3.3 3.0 27 2.7 22 2.2 21 2.1 20 2.0 20 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.2 2.5 1.1.0 5 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 300 450 600 800 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sample size
The Sample distribution PROVINCE DISTRICT SAMPLE Nairobi Nairobi 156 Coast Mombasa 77 Kwale 40 Meru 69 Eastern Kitui 56 Machakos 115 Central Nyeri 69 Kiambu 84 Thika 72 Nakuru 168 Rift Valley Uasin Gishu 78 Narok 40 Kakamega 56 Western Bungoma 75 Busia 34 Kisumu 185 Nyanza Homa Bay 44 Kisii 81 North Eastern Garrissa 30
The Key Findings
Awareness on the KKK alliance. There has been talk of an alliance between Kikuyu Kamba and There has been talk of an alliance between Kikuyu, Kamba and Kalenjin (KKK) to capture power in 2012. Are you aware of such an alliance?
Most Kenyans, 81% reported awareness of the KKK alliance More males (84%) than females (77%) reported awareness of the KKK alliance No, 19% 100% 80% 60% Survey results also reveal that more urban dwellers (82%) as compared to their rural counterparts (79%) are aware of the KKK alliance Yes 84% 82% 77% 79% No Base 1500 Yes, 81 % 40% 20% 0% 23% 16% 18% 21% Male Female Urban Rural GENDER LOCATION There have been talk of an alliance between Kikuyu, Kamba and Kalenjin (KKK) to capture power in 2012. Are you aware of such an alliance?
Most regions expressed high level of awareness of the KKK alliance pray for North Eastern where awareness level was at 58%. The regions that recorded d high h awareness of the KKK alliance, were R. Valley (89%), Western (89%), Eastern (86%) & Central (85%) North Eastern and Coast province are the regions that t recorded rd d the lowest awareness levels at 58% and 80% respectively 100% 80% 83% 80% Yes No 86% 85% 89% 89% 84% Base 1500 60% 40% 58% 42% 20% 17% 20% 14% 15% 11% 11% 16% 0% Nairobi Coast N. Eastern Eastern Central R. Valley Western Nyanza There have been talk of an alliance between Kikuyu, Kamba and Kalenjin (KKK) to capture power in 2012. Are you aware of such an alliance
Support for the KKK alliance. Do you support the formation of the KKK alliance
Only 2 in 10 Kenyans who are aware of the KKK alliance said they support it. 80% of Kenyans indicated that they do not support the alliance. The youth do not support ethnic based alliances. Yes, 23 % Those between the age 18 to 34 years recorded lowest support for KKK alliance as compared to the older generation of 35 years and above. No, 77 % Base 1215 100% 80% 78% 82% Yes 75% No 71% 69% 69% 74% 60% 40% 20% 22% 19% 25% 29% 31% 31% 26% 0% 18-24 Yrs 25-29 Yrs 30-34 Yrs 35-39 Yrs 40-44 Yrs 45-49 Yrs 50+ Yrs Do you support the formation of the KKK alliance
Over 80% of Kenyans in most regions do not support the KKK alliance. Highest support for the alliance was recorded in Central where 55% indicated that they support the alliance. Central, Rift Valley and Eastern were the regions that recorded high support levels for the KKK alliance with 55%, 26% and 24% respectively Western and Nyanza were the regions that support for the KKK alliance was lowest at 7% and 11% respectively Yes No Base 1215 100% 80% 81% 87% 87% 77% 74% 93% 89% 60% 40% 20% 0% 55% 45% 19% 14% 13% 24% 26% 7% 11% Ni Nairobi Coast NE N. Eastern Eastern Central R. Valley Western Nyanza Do you support the formation of the KKK alliance
Most Kenyans ; 80% are not ready to condone /support any form of ethnic alliance for purposes of the next elections Would you support the formation of any form of alliance between any other ethnic communities for purposes of the next elections? 100% 80% 60% By Gender Yes No Base 1500 81% 79% 80% 40% 20% 20% 21% 20% 100% 80% 60% 0% Male Female Average By Age 84% 83% 77% 74% 75% 71% 76% 40% 20% 16% 17% 23% 26% 25% 29% 24% 0% 18-24 Yrs 25-29 Yrs 30-34 Yrs 35-39 Yrs 40-44 Yrs 45-49 Yrs 50+ Yrs
The main reason people would support the formation of other ethnic alliances is to counter the KKK alliance as indicated by 55%. To counter KKK alliance It is the only way to capture political power 22% 51% Only a minority 20% of Kenyans would support the formation of other tribal alliances to counter Ensures a cocktail of leadership To ensure other tribes are not marginalized Will create opportunities for others to lead Everyone has a right of association It will be good if it will invilve all tribes To increase bargaining power of the alliance May be better than the current political parties 14% 12% 10% 9% 6% 5% 1% Majority of Kenyans believe the formation of other ethnic alliances will serve to counter the KKK alliance while a further 22% believe it is the only way to capture power. Another 14% feel it will ensure there is a cocktail of leadership whilst 12% think that formation of counter alliances will ensure that other tribes are not marginalized. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Most Kenyans who don t support ethnic alliances feel they will promote tribalism/negative ethnicity, they could catalyse violence and conflict and they will polarize Kenyans In a nutshell tribal/ethnic alliances are perceived by most Kenyans as working at cross purposes with national cohesion and brotherhood. Will promote tribalism/ negative ethnicity 78% It will lead to violence/conflict Will polarize the political environment Will divide Kenyans along tribal lines We need to appreciate each other as kenyans Will marginalize some communities 65% 60% 55% 54% 50% Will create mistrust among Kenyans 32% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% If NO, kindly elaborate. Base n= 972
Preference of the KKK alliance leadership. Who would you prefer to lead such an alliance
Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta is the one preferred to lead the KKK alliance by those who support it 26% support Ruto for KKK Preferred KKK Leader leadership while 24% support Kalonzo. 11% feel that other leaders should take the mantle of KKK leadership. Interestingly more females (40%) than males (28%) prefer Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta to lead the KKK alliance, While more males (30%) than females (21%) prefer Hon. William Ruto to lead the KKK alliance Others (Eugene Wamalwa/S aitoti) 11% Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta 34% No idea 5% Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka 24% Hon. William Ruto 26% Base 279 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka Hon. William Ruto Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta Others (Eugene Wamalwa/Saitoti) No idea 40% 30% 23% 28% 33% 35% 23% 21% 23% 26% 24% 27% 14% 12% 12% 5% 4% 6% 8% 6% Male Female Urban Rural GENDER LOCATION If Yes, who would you prefer to lead such an alliance
Support for leadership of the KKK alliance is regional/ethnic based. As such most of those in Central ;60% support Uhuru, those in Eastern 49% support Kalonzo and those in Rift Valley;55% support Ruto Support in a cosmopolitan place like Nairobi is equal for each of the key leaders associated with the alliance. Uhuru Kenyatta also yields support for KKK leadership at the Coast and Western. Ruto on the other hand is perceived as the key KKK luminary in N.Eastern and Nyanza. This over and above the obvious support they garner from their regional backyards. 100% Hon. Kalonzo Musyoka Hon. William Ruto Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta Others (Eugene Wamalwa/Saitoti) No idea 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Base 279 60% 55% 49% 44% 31% 41% 35% 34% 35% 32% 31% 31% 27% 28% 27% 24% 22% 22% 23% 19% 17% 13% 13% 9% 12% 8% 11% 4% 4% 4% 7% 8% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 2% 1% 3% Nairobi Coast N. Eastern Eastern Central R. Valley Western Nyanza If Yes, who would you prefer to lead such an alliance
If elections were held today
If elections were held today 46% of Kenyans would vote for Raila Odinga. Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta Kalonzo Musyoka Martha Karua William Ruto Undecided George Saitoti Mwai Kibaki Others Charity Ngilu Musalia Mudavadi Eugene Wamalwa John Michuki Peter Kenneth 15% 10% 8% 7% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 46% Raila is still the most preferred candidate as rated at 46% Uhuru Kenyatta follows suit at 15% 10% of Kenyans would vote for Kalonzo Musyoka while 7% would vote for William Ruto. Notably, 8% would vote for Martha Karua, the only female leader who features in the top tier of leaders perceived to have potential to lead Kenya after 2012. Worth noting is that Raila srating is more than the combined alleged KKK alliance candidates The mention of His Excellency Mwai Kibaki by 2% is perhaps by those Kenyans who are so fond of the president that they would wish to see him lead even after 2012 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Base 1500 If elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as President?
Regional analysis Presidential i North candidate Nairobi Coast Eastern Eastern Central R. Valley Western Nyanza Total Raila Odinga 50% 51% 63% 29% 23% 31% 60% 84% 46% Uhuru Kenyatta 13% 11% 0% 13% 29% 9% 4% 2% 15% Kalonzo Musyoka 12% 12% 3% 31% 4% 6% 2% 1% 10% Martha Karua 10% 6% 5% 10% 22% 5% 5% 1% 8% William Ruto 3% 2% 21% 0% 3% 35% 4% 3% 7% Undecided 6% 10% 0% 2% 1% 6% 5% 2% 3% Mwai Kibaki 3% 1% 3% 6% 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% George Saitoti 0% 1% 0% 0% 11% 1% 1% 0% 2% Others 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% Charity Ngilu 0% 1% 0% 7% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% Eugene Wamalwa 0% 1% 3% 0% 1% 1% 7% 1% 1% Musalia Mudavadi 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 10% 1% 1% John Michuki 0% 1% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% 1% Peter Kenneth 0% 1% 3% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% Base 1500
Age Presidential candidate 18-24 Yrs 25-29 Yrs 30-34 Yrs 35-39 Yrs 40-44 Yrs 45-49 Yrs 50+ Yrs Total Raila Odinga 50% 45% 45% 43% 45% 36% 55% 46% Uhuru Kenyatta 13% 12% 12% 20% 10% 21% 10% 15% Kalonzo Musyoka 9% 11% 8% 9% 11% 6% 7% 10% Martha Karua 8% 12% 12% 9% 13% 6% 5% 8% William Ruto 4% 3% 6% 2% 1% 9% 5% 7% Undecided 6% 4% 6% 7% 3% 9% 10% 3% Others 3% 2% 0% 2% 4% 3% 2% 2% Mwai Kibaki 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 0% 2% 2% George Saitoti 1% 2% 3% 3% 6% 3% 2% 2% John Michuki 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% Peter Kenneth 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Eugene Wamalwa 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% Musalia Mudavadi 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 6% 0% 1% Charity Ngilu 1% 3% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% Base 1500 If elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as President?
Gender More males than females endorse Raila s presidency Interestingly more females than males would prefer Kalonzo as the president Male Female 60% 52% 50% 39% 40% 30% 20% 15% 10% 0% 14% 13% 9% 11% 8% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta Kalonzo Musyoka Martha Karua William Ruto Undecided Mwai Kibaki George Saitoti Others Charity Ngilu Eugene Wamalwa Musalia Mudavadi John Michuki Peter Kenneth Base 1500 If elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as President?
Location Rural dwellers at 52% would elect Raila if an election was held today as compared to only 42% of the urban folk Urban Rural 100% 80% 60% 40% 52% 42% 20% 15% 0% 11% 9% 10% 12% 7% 8% 7% 3% 4% 3% 1% 3% 1% 3% 2% 0% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1% Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta Kalonzo Musyoka Martha Karua William Ruto Undecided Mwai Kibaki George Saitoti Others Charity Ngilu Eugene Wamalwa Musalia Mudavadi John Michuki Peter Kenneth Base 1500 If elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as President?
President and Running mate (s)
Running mate RUNNING MATE Martha Karua Kalonzo Musyoka PRESIDENT Mwai Kibaki Raila Odinga William Ruto Uhuru Kenyatta Martha Karua 14% 19% 12% 4% 19% Kalonzo Musyoka 21% 19% 10% 20% 34% Mwai Kibaki 0% 0% 0% 2% 3% Raila Odinga 8% 8% 9% 11% 3% William Ruto 1% 10% 6% 4% 29% George Saitoti 3% 1% 3% 1% 0% 2% Uhuru Kenyatta 20% 42% 19% 9% 46% 0% Eugene Wamalwa 8% 1% 0% 1% 9% 0% Peter Kenneth 5% 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% Najib Balala 0% 0% 0% 5% 4% 3% Moses Wetangula 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Bonny Khalwale 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Gitobu Imanyara 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% Musalia Mudavadi 5% 3% 3% 43% 2% 0% Charity Ngilu 6% 14% 0% 2% 0% 0% John Michuki 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Wakoli Bifwoli 3% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% Isaac Ruto 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% Undecided 7% 3% 9% 4% 0% 0% Others 6% 1% 3% 1% 0% 3%
Running mate President Running Mate Eugene Peter Musalia Kenneth Wamalwa Kenneth Mudavadi Marende Charity Ngilu John Michuki Martha Karua 0% 0% 6% 0% 30% 40% Kalonzo Musyoka 18% 25% 6% 0% 20% 0% Mwai Kibaki 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Raila Odinga 0% 2% 29% 0% 15% 0% William Ruto 24% 0% 6% 0% 0% 50% George Saitoti 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% Uhuru Kenyatta 12% 0% 0% 0% 15% 0% Eugene Wamalwa 0% 0% 12% 25% 15% 0% Peter Kenneth 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Najib Balala 6% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% Moses Wetangula 12% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% Bonny Khalwale 24% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% Gitobu Imanyara 0% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% Musalia Mudavadi 0% 25% 0% 50% 5% 0% Charity Ngilu 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% John Michuki 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Wakoli Bifwoli 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Isaac Ruto 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Undecided 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Base 1500 0% If elections Others were to be held today, 0% who would 25% you vote for as President 0% & running 0% mate? 0% 0%
Demographics
REGION 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 24% 10% 15% 16% 14% 11% 8% 2% Nairobi Central Nyanza Western Coast Eastern R. Valley N. Eastern Base 1500
GENDER Female 49% Male 51% Base 1500
AGE 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 39% 21% 26% 10% 4% 18-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 54+ years Base1500
EDUCATION LEVEL 100% 80% 60% 40% 34% 37% 20% 0% 16% 12% 2% Primary Secondary College University Post graduate Base1500
LOCATION Urban 35% Rural 65% Base 1500
About Infotrak
About Infotrak Infotrak Research is a professional research company that was founded in 2004 following the vision of the founder to provide the Pan African Market with suitable information solutions required to sustain the needs of the ever growing economies. Headquartered in Nairobi, Kenya, Infotrak also has offices in Uganda, Tanzania, Nigeria and field contacts in more than 12 other countries in Sub Saharan Africa. The firm, which is currently one of the fastest growing in the region, attributes its rapid growth not only to innovation, high level of professionalism and dynamism, but also on the excellent caliber of personnel who have been described by many as Business minds who specialize in research. Whilst Infotrak has already carved a niche in market research, the firm s reputation in Social research has quickly gained impetus. Today, Infotrak is one of the most authoritative pollsters in Kenya, providing political opinion polling under the Infotrak Harris Poll flagship brand. In 2007, Infotrak became a global network affiliate of Harris Interactive, the 12th largest and fastest growing market research firm in the world. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and Media Transfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms.