CONSTRUCTION & MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD british columbia Biggest construction growth potential in Canada HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028 Recruiting challenges emerged in British Columbia s construction labour market in 2018, and in some cases, contributed to project delays and labour cost concerns in some markets. The addition of a number of major new non-residential projects is expected to increase these pressures over the next few years. DISTRIBUTION OF CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT IN 2019, BRITISH COLUMBIA A strong rise in institutional, commercial, and major project requirements on top of enduring residential construction activity stretched the local labour force, especially in the Lower Mainland, where recruiting challenges were more intense. The timing of a number of concurrent new major projects is expected to increase non-residential employment by 12,900 workers between 2019 and 2021 or a 20% increase over the next three years. Overall employment in the construction industry is projected to rise by 14,600 jobs. As these major projects peak and then wind down, coupled with slower population growth, construction employment is expected to recede between 2022 and 2024, but remain above 2018 levels. A return to more modest growth over the latter half of the coming decade and the anticipated retirement of 44,200 workers will require the construction and maintenance industry to remain focused on recruiting and training across the entire 2019 2028 scenario period. 2019 NON-RESIDENTIAL MAINTENANCE ENGINEERING INDUSTRIAL, COMMERCIAL, INSTITUTIONAL (ICI) HIGHLIGHTS NEW HOUSING RESIDENTIAL RENOVATION AND MAINTENANCE 2028 10-YEAR WORKFORCE OUTLOOK FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA 44,200 RETIREMENTS 36,500 NEW ENTRANTS 17,600 (9.4%) EMPLOYMENT CHANGE Construction employment is set to rise and peak in 2021, adding 14,600 jobs or grow by approximately 8% from the 2018 starting point. Housing starts are receding from record high levels, but population growth is expected to sustain starts at high levels over the coming decade. Workers from outside BC s construction industry may be needed to meet anticipated peak demands between 2019 and 2021. Construction employment is expected to rise by 17,600 jobs over the coming decade, and 44,200 workers (22% of the current workforce) are anticipated to retire. AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT 5.5% RATE BuildForce s LMI System BuildForce Canada uses a scenario-based forecasting system to assess future construction labour requirements in the heavy industrial, residential, and nonresidential construction markets. This labour market information (LMI) system tracks 34 trades and occupations. To further improve the robustness of the system, BuildForce consults with industry stakeholders, including owners, contractors, and labour groups, to validate the scenario assumptions and construction project lists, and seeks input from government on related analysis. The information is then distilled into labour market condition rankings to help industry employers with the management of their respective human resources.
BRITISH COLUMBIA CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK With the anticipated start of several major projects, British Columbia will remain one of the fastest-growing construction markets in Canada over the next three years. The timing of these significant non-residential major projects should increase the sector s employment by approximately 12,900 jobs (18%) between 2019 and 2021. The key major projects driving this increase include the Site C project, public transportation projects, pipelines, and the recently announced LNG Canada project and related pipeline infrastructure. Meeting this significant ramp-up is made more difficult by the expected retirement of 13,000 workers over this period, and further but modest increases in residential sector requirements. With the industry already contending with record low levels of unemployment and significant recruitment challenges for local skilled trades and occupations, a portion of the required increase to the labour force may need to be drawn from outside the province or outside the industry. In addition to tracking scheduled major projects, the 2019 2028 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward outlook scenario accounts for population growth and the expected economic expansion that will drive continued growth in the construction of industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) buildings. The pace of construction in new housing, which has been the dominant driver of growth over the past five years, is expected to ebb as housing starts moderate. This should prompt a minor decline in new-homebuilding employment, though these declines will be more than offset by an expected acceleration in renovation activity. Much of the anticipated growth in construction investment is concentrated in the Lower Mainland, driven by a plethora of planned transportation and other major public infrastructure projects. Recruiting challenges in the region have been aggravated by the rising cost of living and affordability challenges in the Greater Vancouver Area, causing an increasing number of workers to commute daily to Vancouver from more affordable surrounding areas. Construction of the LNG Canada export terminal at Kitimat and related pipelines will require drawing thousands of skilled workers to the North Coast. The anticipated arrival of workers has already resulted in a mini real estate boom in the region. Aging workforce demographics will also add to overall hiring requirements across the scenario period, as an estimated 44,200 skilled workers are expected to exit the province s construction industry by 2028. When retirement and expansion demands are combined, the industry will need to recruit close to 62,200 workers over the 2019 2028 scenario period. This demand may be partially met by an estimated 36,500 new entrants 1 aged 30 and younger available locally, but a significant portion of the remainder will likely need to be drawn from outside the province. Meeting ongoing demands as major projects reach peak levels of activity will be contingent on industry s ability to continue to attract and train workers from outside construction or from outside the province. SECTOR INSIGHTS The following sections provide sector-specific insights into the residential and non-residential labour markets for the province as a whole and for the Lower Mainland separately. The BuildForce LMI system tracks labour supply and accounts for the change in the available labour force, including retirements, new entrants, and net in-mobility 2. BuildForce assesses market conditions for 34 construction trades and occupations using a ranking system that combines measures of the change in employment, unemployment, net in-mobility, and adjustments based on industry input. The rankings reflect residential and non-residential market conditions unique to the province based on current and proposed construction activity. In addition, assumptions on regional economic and population growth, new entrants to the labour force, and migration patterns (interprovincial and international) are built into the forecast scenario and included in the ranking assessments. The rankings for some trades are suppressed due to the small size of the workforce (<100 workers) and limited statistical reliability when assessing labour market conditions at the sector level. Some trades are also excluded because they typically do not work in the sector being assessed (e.g., boilermakers and millwrights in residential construction, and homebuilding and renovation managers in non-residential). For British Columbia, rankings are reported for 28 residential and 32 non-residential trades and occupations. For the Lower Mainland, rankings are reported for 27 residential and 32 non-residential trades and occupations. RESIDENTIAL SECTOR Housing starts were sustained near record levels in 2018 after surpassing a high of 43,700 units in 2017. The pace of new homebuilding is expected to slow, but more moderate population growth is expected to sustain starts near current levels. Increased renovation work across the scenario period offsets declining requirements in new housing, leaving overall residential construction employment about 10% higher by the end of the decade. The shift from new housing to renovation work results in a much larger share of employment concentrated in the renovation market. Figure 1 shows the employment trends by segment for residential construction. THE AVAILABLE LABOUR FORCE Table 1 provides a summary of the estimated changes in the residential labour force in 2018, the five-year period between 2019 and 2023, and across the full 2019 2028 scenario period. 1 New entrants are measured by applying the traditional proportion of the provincial labour force that enters the construction industry. The projected estimate across the scenario period assumes the construction industry can recruit this group in competition with other industries. 2 In-mobility refers to the arrival of workers from outside the local construction industry. In-mobility includes the interprovincial employee workforce described above. Many members of this group will move quickly out of the province as work declines, and this out-mobility, even if it is a very short-term change, is a signal of a weak market. 2 BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028
CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA Figure 1: Residential construction employment growth outlook, British Columbia 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Maintenance Renovations New housing Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada Table 1: Changes in the residential labour force, British Columbia RESIDENTIAL LABOUR FORCE ADJUSTMENT 2018 5 years 2019 2023 10 years 2019 2028 Demand Supply Labour force change 1,700 3,100 12,100 Retirements -2,700-13,800-27,800 New entrants 2,200 11,000 22,100 Net mobility 2,100 5,900 17,800 Source: BuildForce Canada RESIDENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS Housing starts increased 60% (from 27,000 to 43,000 units) between 2013 and 2018, with most of the growth driven by high-rise condominiums, especially in the Lower Mainland. Housing starts are expected to decline in 2019 for the first time in six years, but should remain near 40,000 units through 2022. Slower population growth lowers housing starts toward 36,000 units between 2023 and 2028. Employment related to new housing is expected to decline by 17,100 jobs (25%) over the coming decade, but is offset by 23,400 new jobs (60% increase) in renovation work Over the decade, residential employment rises by 11,900 jobs (10%), with the strongest gains found in 2026 and 2027. BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028 3
BRITISH COLUMBIA CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD RESIDENTIAL RANKINGS, RISKS, AND MOBILITY In Table 2, the tight markets shown in 2018 reflect the prolonged build-up in residential employment requirements and falling levels of unemployment. Projected declines in 2019 should ease labour market tightness, with overall market conditions returning to balance for most trades and occupations, as signalled by a rank of 3. Market challenges remain for trades and occupations concentrated in highrise apartment and condo construction, where demand is expected to be sustained at high levels. MARKET RANKINGS Workers meeting employer qualifications are available in local markets to meet an increase in demand at the current offered rate of compensation and other current working conditions. Excess supply is apparent and there is a risk of losing workers to other markets. Workers meeting employer qualifications are available in local markets to meet an increase in demand at the current offered rate of compensation and other working conditions. The availability of workers meeting employer qualifications in the local market may be limited by large projects, plant shutdowns or other short-term increases in demand. Employers may need to compete to attract needed workers. Established patterns of recruiting and mobility are sufficient to meet job requirements. Workers meeting employer qualifications are generally not available in local markets to meet any increase. Employers will need to compete to attract additional workers. Recruiting and mobility may extend beyond traditional sources and practices. Needed workers meeting employer qualifications are not available in local markets to meet current demand so that projects or production may be delayed or deferred. There is excess demand, competition is intense and recruiting reaches to remote markets. Table 2: Residential market rankings, British Columbia TRADES AND OCCUPATIONS RESIDENTIAL 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Bricklayers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Carpenters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Construction estimators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 Construction managers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Contractors and supervisors 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 Crane operators 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 continued on next page 4 BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028
CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA Table 2: Residential market rankings, British Columbia (continued) TRADES AND OCCUPATIONS RESIDENTIAL 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Electricians 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Elevator constructors and mechanics 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 Floor covering installers 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 Glaziers 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Homebuilding and renovation managers 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 Insulators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plumbers 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Roofers and shinglers 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Tilesetters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 Trades helpers and labourers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Truck drivers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Source: BuildForce Canada NON-RESIDENTIAL SECTOR British Columbia is two years into an unprecedented expansion that is expected to see non-residential investment increase by 60% over five years (2017 2021). Non-residential employment is expected to rise by 12,900 jobs (+18%), driven by several major projects, including ongoing work at Site C; the LNG Canada export terminal and related TransCanada Coastal Gaslink pipeline; the Trans Mountain Express (TMX) pipeline; various major public infrastructure projects, including the Pattullo bridge replacement and several TransLink public transit projects; and the Vancouver International Airport expansion. Figure 2 tracks the change in non-residential employment by sector for key reference points across the scenario period, including the start of the outlook period in 2019, the peak in 2021, and then at the end of the period in 2028. In addition to the demands created by the ongoing or upcoming major projects, the construction of ICI buildings has been rising steadily and will help sustain employment as the major projects wind down. While related employment is expected to recede modestly in 2023, overall employment is expected to remain 20% above 2018 levels by the end of the decade. To meet the anticipated upcoming (2019-2021) employment and replacement demands, an additional 13,400 workers will need to be added from outside the provincial labour force or drawn from other industries. This assumes industry can attract 4,700 new entrants from within the province. Most of these workers, however, are expected to be released between 2022 and 2023 as the province s labour force returns to employment levels more inline with 2018 construction demands. BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028 5
BRITISH COLUMBIA CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD Figure 2: Non-residential employment distribution by sector, British Columbia, 2019, 2021 and 2028 INDUSTRIAL COMMERCIAL & INSTITUTIONAL OTHER ENGINEERING HIGHWAYS & BRIDGES HEAVY INDUSTRIAL MAINTENANCE 83,400 74,900 76,200 9% 25% 12% 6% 26% 21% 28% 20% 2019 2021 2028 START PEAK END 9% 24% 13% 6% 9% 30% 12% 6% 20% 24% Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada Table 3: Changes in non-residential employment by sector, British Columbia Total non-residential employment 18% -9% ICI buildings SECTOR Industrial 32% -12% Commercial, institutional and government % CHANGE 2019 2021 % CHANGE 2022 2028 6% 12% Highways and bridges 21% -12% Table 3 summarizes the percent change in non-residential employment by sector across two periods: the first captures the expected increased demand over three years to 2021, and the second shows the remaining seven years of the scenario period as markets decline from peak activity. Figure 3 shows the employment trends by sector for non-residential construction. Engineering Heavy industrial 31% -35% Other engineering 30% -16% Maintenance 7% 11% Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada NON-RESIDENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS Overall, non-residential employment requirements rise by 12,900 jobs (18%) by 2021. Employment in engineering construction is anticipated to rise by 35%, with the largest increases expected in 2020, as several major projects are underway at the same time. An additional 13,400 workers are needed from outside BC s non-residential construction market. Most are released between 2022 and 2023 as current projects peak and wind down. Requirements related to the construction of ICI buildings are expected to rise steadily, increasing by 4,400 jobs (18%) from 2019 to 2028. 6 BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028
CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA Figure 3: Non-residential construction employment growth outlook, British Columbia 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Maintenance Industrial, commercial, institutional (ICI) buildings Engineering Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada THE AVAILABLE LABOUR FORCE First-time new entrants aged 30 and younger anticipated to enter the construction labour force from the local population only partly offset retirements. Meeting rising near-term employment demands of 12,900 workers while replacing 4,800 workers expected to retire will strain the industry. Only 4,700 provincial new-entrant workers are expected to join the labour force during this period, leaving the industry a shortfall of 13,400 workers that must be recruited from outside the local non-residential labour force. Table 4 provides a summary of the estimated changes in the non-residential labour force in 2018, the three-year period from 2019 to the 2021 peak, and across the full 2019 2028 scenario period. NON-RESIDENTIAL RANKINGS, RISKS, AND MOBILITY For British Columbia, the rankings in Table 5 show a tightening of non-residential labour markets at the start of the scenario period. Market conditions remain tight for most trades due to a rapid increase in employment requirements between 2019 and 2021 that require workers from outside the local construction industry. Conditions loosen by 2022 as projects are completed, reflected by the rank of 2, and then return toward balance by 2024 as excess workers leave. Table 4: Changes in the non-residential labour force, British Columbia NON-RESIDENTIAL LABOUR FORCE ADJUSTMENT Demand 2018 3 years 2019 2021 Peak Peak 10 years 2019 2028 Labour force change 5,300 13,300 5,900 Retirements 1,500 4,800 16,400 Supply New entrants 1,400 4,700 14,400 Net mobility 5,300 13,400 7,900 Source: BuildForce Canada BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028 7
BRITISH COLUMBIA CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD Table 5: Non-residential market rankings, British Columbia TRADES AND OCCUPATIONS NON-RESIDENTIAL 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Boilermakers 3 4 5 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Bricklayers 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Carpenters 5 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Concrete finishers 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Construction estimators 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 Construction managers 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 4 5 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Contractors and supervisors 4 5 4 2 2 3 3 4 3 4 4 Crane operators 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Drillers and blasters 4 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 Electrical power line and cable workers 3 5 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 Electricians 3 5 5 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Gasfitters 4 5 4 2 2 3 3 4 3 4 4 Glaziers 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Insulators 3 4 4 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plumbers 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Roofers and shinglers 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers 4 5 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Steamfitters, pipefitters, and sprinkler system installers 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Tilesetters 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Trades helpers and labourers 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Truck drivers 5 4 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 Welders and related machine operators 5 5 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Source: BuildForce Canada 8 BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028
CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA LOWER MAINLAND CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK The Lower Mainland will likely continue to suffer recruiting challenges as demand requirements mount and supply remains constrained due to the rising cost of living and affordable housing challenges. Despite a slowing pace in housing starts, a second consecutive year of widespread growth across all non-residential construction segments drove unemployment to its lowest level since 2007. Non-residential investment, driven by major infrastructure projects, is projected to expand by 22% between 2019 and 2022, with gains evenly split between engineering and ICI building construction. Residential employment is expected to rise, but will be increasingly driven by accelerating renovation work, as the construction of new housing recedes from record high levels. In total, an estimated 11,900 additional workers will be required to meet local construction demands by 2021. Factoring in retirements, hiring requirements rise to total 19,000 workers over the next three years. As the requirements for current major projects recede, overall employment is projected to decline by 7,300 jobs by 2023. By the latter half of the decade, however, demand should recover, driven by steady increases in the construction of ICI buildings and increased activity in residential renovation. By 2028, overall employment should be higher by 1,600 workers. RESIDENTIAL SECTOR The implementation of BC s speculation tax and tighter mortgage rules contributed to slowing sales and softening housing starts in 2018, but activity in residential construction moving forward should be sustained by ongoing large condominium projects and rising levels of renovation investment. Housing starts surged 34% in 2016, driven by high-rise condo starts, and remained near 31,000 units in 2017 and 2018. Population growth and market pressures are expected to sustain starts near current levels until 2022 before an anticipated down-cycle between 2023 and 2028 returns housing starts to pre-2014 levels. Employment related to new housing is expected to decline by close to 20,000 jobs (-43%) over the coming decade, but is offset by the growth of 17,000 new jobs (+73%) tied to rising requirements in renovation work (see Figure 4). Over the scenario period, residential employment recedes marginally by 2,700 jobs (4%), but these declines are from very high employment levels that are anticipated to peak in 2022. RESIDENTIAL RANKINGS, RISKS, AND MOBILITY The rankings in Table 6 reflect residential market conditions unique to the Lower Mainland based on current and proposed construction activity. In addition, assumptions on regional economic and population growth, new entrants to the labour force, and migration patterns (interprovincial and international) are built into the outlook scenario and included in the ranking assessment. Figure 4: Residential construction employment growth outlook, Lower Mainland, British Columbia 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Maintenance Renovations New housing Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028 9
BRITISH COLUMBIA CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD Table 6: Residential market rankings, Lower Mainland, British Columbia TRADES AND OCCUPATIONS NON-RESIDENTIAL 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Bricklayers 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 Carpenters 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Construction estimators 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 Construction managers 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 Contractors and supervisors 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 Crane operators 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 Electricians 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Elevator constructors and mechanics 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 Floor covering installers 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 Gasfitters 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 Glaziers 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 Homebuilding and renovation managers 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Insulators 3 3 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plumbers 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 Tilesetters 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 Trades helpers and labourers 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 2 Truck drivers 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Welders and related machine operators 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 Source: BuildForce Canada 10 BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028
CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA NON-RESIDENTIAL SECTOR Significant investments in a diverse group of public transportation and infrastructure projects and in the construction of ICI buildings are set to propel labour demands in the Lower Mainland to peak levels by 2021 at a pace and intensity not seen since the build-up to the 2010 Olympics. The anticipated timing of planned major infrastructure investments is expected to increase demands in non-residential employment by 20% from 2019 to 2021. Overall, non-residential employment requirements are projected to rise by 7,800 jobs, followed by a decline of 5,100 as current projects are completed. Employment is expected to remain 9% (4,300 workers) above the 2018 starting point (see Figure 5). NON-RESIDENTIAL RANKINGS, RISKS, AND MOBILITY The rankings shown in Table 7 point to a rapid build-up in overlapping requirements for major projects and ICI buildings between 2018 and 2021, as well as the supply challenges specific to the Lower Mainland. Record low levels of unemployment, drawn down over the past four years, means the majority of rising requirements must be met with workers from outside the local nonresidential labour force. As current major projects peak and wind down, labour market challenges are expected to ease after 2021, with overall market conditions returning to balance for most trades and occupations, as signalled by a rank of 3. Key major projects include the Pattullo Bridge replacement, Vancouver airport expansion, pipeline projects, Millennium Line and Surrey light rail transit systems, St. Paul s Hospital, and the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority container expansion. Figure 5: Non-residential construction employment growth outlook, Lower Mainland, British Columbia 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Maintenance Industrial, commercial, institutional (ICI) buildings Engineering Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada Peak BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028 11
BRITISH COLUMBIA CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD Table 7: Non-residential market rankings, Lower Mainland, British Columbia TRADES AND OCCUPATIONS NON-RESIDENTIAL 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Boilermakers 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Bricklayers 4 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Carpenters 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Concrete finishers 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Construction estimators 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 Construction managers 5 5 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 5 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Contractors and supervisors 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 Crane operators 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Drillers and blasters 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Electrical power line and cable workers 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 Electricians 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Elevator constructors and mechanics 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 Floor covering installers 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 Gasfitters 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 Glaziers 4 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 5 5 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Insulators 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators 5 5 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Painters and decorators (except interior decorators) 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 4 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plumbers 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 5 5 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Roofers and shinglers 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Steamfitters, pipefitters, and sprinkler system installers 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Tilesetters 4 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 Trades helpers and labourers 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Truck drivers 5 5 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Welders and related machine operators 5 5 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Source: BuildForce Canada 12 BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028
CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE LABOUR FORCE Along with meeting near-term demands related to major projects, British Columbia is also tasked with replacing an estimated 44,200 construction workers expected to retire over the next 10 years. During a period of aging demographics, provincial labour market planning will need to remain proactive, as expected retirements represent a significant loss of skills and experience. All industries will be competing for talented youth over the coming decade, and this has the potential to tighten labour markets, even under the slower growth conditions later in the scenario period. Over the next 10 years, British Columbia s share of the population in the older age bracket (65 years and over) is expected to increase, while the share of the population at prime working age (25-54 years old) is expected to decline. Additionally, the share of the population that is potentially available to enter the labour force (15-24 years old) is expected to decline. (See Figure 6.) As a considerable share of the population moves into the older age bracket, the labour force participation rate (percent of the population 15 years and older in the labour force) is expected to fall steadily. Population aging is anticipated to be somewhat offset by people moving into the province over the coming decade, thereby contributing to a relatively stable rate of population growth. Historically low unemployment rates are anticipated to bring workers into British Columbia from other provinces, while the federal government s commitment to one million immigrants over the next three years should sustain high levels of provincial immigration. Between 2019 and 2028, BC s population growth should average 1.1%, as shown in Figure 7. Based on historical trends, over the next decade, BC s construction industry is expected to draw in an estimated 36,500 first-time new entrants aged 30 and younger from the local population. Given the province s age structure, the pace of retirements exceeds the number of youth coming into construction, forcing industry to look to other industries, other provinces, and other countries for new workers to augment the available pool of local new entrants. Figure 6: Population age distribution, British Columbia 14% 2018 19% 14% 41% 12% 13% 23% 2028 14% 40% 10% 0-14 15-24 25-54 55-64 65+ Source: BuildForce Canada Figure 7: Sources of population growth (%), British Columbia 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 Increase due to natural growth (births less deaths) Increase due to net in-migration Total population growth Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada (2019 2028) BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028 13
BRITISH COLUMBIA CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD APPRENTICESHIP More than 52,000 apprentices registered in the 15 largest construction programs 3 in British Columbia between 2012 and 2018 4. Completions totalled 22,580 over the same period. Apprenticeship data from Statistics Canada s Registered Apprenticeship Information System (RAIS) shows annual new registrations have increased by 1% from 2012 to 2018 a slower pace compared to construction employment, which increased by 3% over the same period. New registrations peaked at 8,100 in 2013 before declining to 6,900 in 2016, and have been steadily rising since. BuildForce Canada is working to better track apprenticeship training information to provide data on industry trends and training needs to ensure there are sufficient numbers of apprentices and newly certified journeypersons to sustain a skilled workforce over the long term. UNDERREPRESENTED GROUPS OF WORKERS Building a sustainable workforce will require the construction and maintenance industry to increase recruitment from groups traditionally underrepresented in the current construction labour force, including women, Indigenous Canadians, and new Canadians. In 2018, female employment in British Columbia exceeded 1.2 million, representing 48% of the province s total workforce. Nearly half (528,400) of all women were employed in healthcare and social assistance, retail services, and educational services. The construction industry employed an estimated 29,500 women, representing 2.5% of all women in the province. British Columbia s construction industry is made up of approximately 12% women, of which about 31% work directly on construction projects, while the remaining 69% work primarily in administrative and management-related occupations. This translates into women accounting for 3.8% of employment in direct construction trades and occupations, which is higher than the national average. Women in Canada s construction industry tend to be concentrated in occupations that are heavily demanded in the residential sector and in the construction of commercial and institutional buildings. In British Columbia, 65% (5,900) of tradeswomen are employed in the residential sector, as shown in Figure 8. The nonresidential sector employs 3,100 (35%), with a roughly even split between women working in the construction of ICI buildings and engineering construction. Female construction employment has seen improvements since 2011, driven by significant growth in the residential sector. Based on historical in- and out-flows of women to the construction industry, female employment is expected to continue rising to 2021, as expansion will require industry to recruit female workers. The share of women in construction trades and female employment are then expected to recede to 2024, as shown in Figure 9, but regain Figure 8: Breakdown of female construction employment (2018), British Columbia NEW HOUSING 3,600 40% ICI* BUILDINGS 1,200 14% NON-RESIDENTIAL MAINTENANCE 600 7% ENGINEERING 1,300 14% RENOVATIONS 1,800 20% RESIDENTIAL MAINTENANCE 500 5% * industrial, commercial, institutional Source: BuildForce Canada calculations based on Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (LFS) and 2016 Census of the Population. 3 Programs include Sheet Metal Worker, Metal Fabricator, Welder, Construction Electrician, Powerline Technician, Steamfitter/Pipefitter, Sprinkler System Installer, Carpenter, Lather (Interior Systems Mechanic), Roofer, Painter and Decorator, Industrial Mechanic (Millwright), Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Mechanic, Mobile Crane Operator, and Plumber. 4 Statistics Canada s apprenticeship data is only available to 2016. BuildForce Canada estimated the 2017 and 2018 values. 14 BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028
CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA Figure 9: Female construction employment and share of total direct trades and occupations*, British Columbia 12,000 6.0% 10,000 5.0% 8,000 4.0% 6,000 3.0% 4,000 2.0% 2,000 1.0% 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 Female employment (left axis) Share of females (right axis) * Direct trades and occupations refers to the 34 trades and occupations tracked by BuildForce Canada, which excludes administrative-type occupations. Source: BuildForce Canada calculations based on Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (LFS) and 2016 Census of the Population. momentum thereafter, driven by strong growth in residential renovation work and steady gains in ICI building construction. The share of women in construction is projected to remain well above 2016 levels. Indigenous Canadians comprise another underrepresented group in the construction industry. British Columbia is home to approximately 17% of all Indigenous people in Canada. The Indigenous population is the fastest growing in Canada and has a higher propensity to choose the construction industry as a potential career choice. In 2016, an estimated 7.6% of non-indigenous Canadians were employed in the construction industry, compared to 9.6% for the Indigenous population. Approximately 5.7% of British Columbia s construction workforce is made up of Indigenous Canadians, of which about 82% work directly on construction projects, while the remaining 18% work primarily in administrative and management-related occupations. The Indigenous population is also more likely to work in heavyindustrial construction, as approximately 30% of all Indigenous Canadians work in the sector, compared to 20% of non- Indigenous workers. 10-YEAR AVERAGE BY 2028 1.1% 49,600 43,800 52,600 41 22% POPULATION GROWTH BIRTHS DEATHS NET MIGRATION AVERAGE AGE OF CONSTRUCTION WORKFORCE PERCENT OF CURRENT LABOUR FORCE LOST TO RETIREMENT BRITISH COLUMBIA HIGHLIGHTS 2019 2028 15
CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE LOOKING FORWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA Lastly, building a sustainable workforce may require BC s construction industry to increase its share of new Canadians (immigrants). Over the coming decade, the province is expected to welcome an average of 37,000 newcomers every year, making the immigrant population a key component of labour force growth. British Columbia s construction workforce is made up of approximately 24% new Canadians. Historically, a significant share of landed immigrants into the province were Europeans, who have a higher propensity to choose the construction industry. Currently underway, however, is a shift that has seen a significant rise in immigration from Asia (China and India), whose citizens may have a lower inclination toward construction trades and occupations. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS The 2019 2028 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward scenario for British Columbia anticipates a rapid increase in employment requirements related to non-residential construction over the medium term to 2021, alongside long-term growth in residential renovation demands. The timing and scale of anticipated non-residential demands pose a potential for recruitment challenges to intensify in the Lower Mainland. Construction of the LNG Canada export terminal at Kitimat will require industry to draw in thousands of skilled workers to the North Coast. These challenges will also be amplified by rising retirements. With local labour supply stretched, a significant number of skilled workers are likely to be required from outside of the province. Meeting the expected requirements while contending with rising retirements will require a coordinated effort by industry and its stakeholders. Industry facilitation of mobility across sectors, regions, and provinces will be needed to meet peak demands. The industry scenario-based approach developed by BuildForce Canada to assess future labour market conditions provides a powerful planning tool for industry, government, and other stakeholders to better track labour market conditions and identify potential pressure points. The assumed timing of proposed major projects in the 2019 2028 outlook scenario underpins the market conditions anticipated. Any changes in the anticipated timing of major projects, such as the proposed LNG Canada project and other planned engineering projects, present risks to anticipated labour market conditions. Timely construction forecast data is available online at constructionforecasts.ca. Create customized reports on a broad range of selected categories within sector, trade or province covering up to 10 years. For more information, contact: Funded by the Government of Canada s Sectoral Initiatives Program 16 The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada ALBERTA HIGHLIGHTS 2017 2026 ALBERTA - HIGHLIGHTS 2017-2025 Phone: 613.569.5552 I info@buildforce.ca JANUARY 2019