ABC NEWS/MONEY MAGAZINE CONSUMER INDEX 9/19/4 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6: p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 21, 4 Consumer Confidence: Average Six weeks before the presidential election, consumer confidence is dead average. That may not be George W. Bush s proudest achievement, but it could be worse. The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index stands this week at -9 on its scale of + to -, precisely matching its average in weekly polls since late 1985. The index matches its level at this point in 1996, when Bill Clinton was headed for reelection. It s well below its September reading, but far above its level in September 1992, when Bush s father was headed for defeat at the hands of economic discontent. 9/19/4-9 9/17/ + 9/22/96-9 9//92-42 9/18/88-3 George W. Bush Consumer Confidence During the Bush Presidencies ABC News/Money magazine polls - George H.W. Bush - - -4 Jan. 1/ Jan. 89 Sept. 4/ Sept. 92-5 -6 There is a huge partisan division in confidence, much more so than in past election years. The ABC/Money index today stands at +39 among Republicans, but -36 among Democrats and -21 among independents.
Republicans Democrats Independents Rep-Dem diff 9/18/4 +39-36 -21 75 9/17/ +38 +29 +26 9 9/22/96 +2-13 -9 15 9//92-14 -55-47 41 INDEX The index, -9 this week, was -7 last week and -11 three weeks ago. It s run in a fairly narrow band between -6 and -11 since late June, after recovering from - in mid- June. Its best this year was -3 in mid-january; its worst, -22 in mid-march. 8 7 ABC News/Money Magazine Poll: Positive Ratings of Individual Gauges Since 1 Personal Finances 6 5 Buying Climate 4 National Economy 1/7/1 3/7/1 5/7/1 7/7/1 9/7/1 11/7/1 1/7/2 3/7/2 5/7/2 7/7/2 9/7/2 11/7/2 1/7/3 3/7/3 5/7/3 7/7/3 9/7/3 11/7/3 1/7/4 3/7/4 5/7/4 7/7/4 9/7/4 The index is based on Americans views of the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. This week 37 percent rate the economy positively, three points off the long-term average; 4 percent say it s a good time to buy things, about average (39 percent); and 59 percent rate their own finances positively; the average is 57 percent. ABC News/Money magazine poll Positive ratings of: This week June 13 4 avg. 18-yr. avg. National economy 37% 34 37 4 Buying climate 4 34 39 39 Personal finances 59 52 57 57 Consumer Comfort Index -9 - -12-9
TREND The index has ranged from a high of +38 in January to a low of -5 in February 1992. Its worst annual average was -44 in 1992. Last year it averaged -19, much worse than the best yearly average of +29 in. This year so far it's averaged -12. 4 ABC News/Money Magazine Poll: Consumer Confidence Index Weekly Tracking Results Since December 1985 Record High 1/16/ +38 Recession starts 3/1 - - - -4 Recession starts 7/9-5 -6 12/8/1985 12/8/1986 12/8/1987 12/8/1988 12/8/1989 12/8/199 12/8/1991 12/8/1992 12/8/1993 12/8/1994 12/8/1995 12/8/1996 12/8/1997 12/8/1998 12/8/1999 12/8/ 12/8/1 12/8/2 12/8/3 Today -9 Latest low - June 13 Recent high -3 January 4 4 average -12 To date 3 average -19 2 average -11 1 average +4 average +29 Best full year 1992 average -44 Worst full year Jan. 16, +38 Record high Feb. 9, 1992-5 Record low Average since 12/85-9 GROUPS Confidence, as usual, is stronger among better-off Americans. The index is +19 among higher-income people while -4 among those with the lowest incomes, +4 among college graduates while -34 among high-school dropouts, -6 among whites but -31 among blacks and -5 among men but -13 among women. Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index:
NATIONAL ECONOMY Thirty-seven percent of Americans rate the U.S. economy as excellent or good; it was 39 percent last week. The highest was 8 percent on Jan. 16,. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 37 1 36 63 42 21 Avg. since 12/85 4 4 37 6 4 PERSONAL FINANCES Fifty-nine percent see their own finances as excellent or good; it was 61 percent last week. The best was 7 percent on Aug., 1998, matched in January. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 59 7 52 41 27 14 Avg. since 12/85 57 5 52 43 13 BUYING CLIMATE Forty percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 39 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16,. The worst was percent in fall 199. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. net Not good Poor This week 4 3 37 6 41 19 Avg. since 12/85 39 3 36 61 41 METHODOLOGY - The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1, adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1, interviews in the four weeks ending Sept. 19, 4, and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa. The ABC/Money index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from + (everyone positive on all three measures) to - (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985. Analysis by Gary Langer. ABC News polls can be found online at http://abcnews.com/pollvault.html. Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934 or Lisa Finkel, (212) 456-619.
9/19/4 This Last 4 Wks 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo 12 Mo 12 Mo Week Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Avg ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Group -------- GENERAL POPULATION: Overall Index -9-7 -9-15 - -3-22 -13 State of Economy -26-22 -24-28 -46-12 -46-29 Personal Finances 18 22 18 22 4 13 Buying Climate - -22-22 -26-24 -14-32 -22 ------------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Sex: Men -5-2 -3-5 - 14-15 -4 Women -13-13 -16-24 -28 - -28 - Age: 18-34 -7-7 -4 - -18 3-23 -11 35-44 -8-3 -11-27 -21 11-29 -11 45-54 -14-8 -4-9 -16-1 -24-13 55-64 -13 - -18 - -27 3-36 -16 65+ -7-13 -18-18 -18 2-33 -15 Income: Under $15K -4-41 -6-6 -53-4 -68-55 $15K To $24.9K -44-41 -21-49 -35-21 -61-37 $25K To $39.9K -9-3 -13-32 -43-2 -44-23 $4K To $49.9K -26 - -22-6 -14 27-29 -6 Over $5K 15 17 13 8 29 5 16 $5K To $74.9K 12 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A $75K To $99.9K 14 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Over $K 19 26 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Region: Northeast -11-16 -15-24 -12-6 -27-17 Midwest -9-12 -12-21 -26 7-29 -13 South -5-2 -8-12 -17-1 -24-11 West -14-4 -4-5 -23 9-28 -9 Race: White -6-4 -5-9 -17 3-19 -8 Black -31-34 -42-47 -44-28 -59-41 Politics: Republican 39 44 39 31 47 5 Democrat -36-33 -35-44 -42-28 -47-38 Independent -21-23 -17-16 -21-2 -4-19 Education: < High School -34-29 -51-48 -35-26 -6-41 High Sch. Grad. -17-18 -14-25 -28-5 -32-18 College + 4 6 5 3-9 14-15 1 Home: Own -1 1-1 -2-12 7-16 -4 Rent - -29-31 -42-4 -19-46 -32 Marital Status: Single -15-16 -13-25 -26-8 -37-21 Married 5 2-1 -11 11-15 Sep/Wid/Div -29-28 -39-36 -38-21 -46-34 Employ. Status: Full-Time 1 3-1 -8-12 12-16 -2 Part-Time -15-9 -13-19 -19 5-34 -16 Not Employed - - - -25 - -16-36 -25