ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST CONSUMER INDEX 1/9/5 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:3 p.m. Tuesday, Jan. 11, 25 Consumer Confidence Steady; Much Weaker in the Northeast Consumer confidence held steady at its long-term average this week, with tough sledding in the Northeast hampering any improvement. The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -9 on its scale of +1 to -1, unchanged from last week and matching its average since this weekly survey of consumer attitudes began in December 1985. At -26, the index is markedly lower in the Northeast than in the rest of the country, -7 in the South, -5 in the Midwest and -1 in the West. Indeed the index is below its 12-month average in the Northeast, -16; it s above its recent average elsewhere. ABC News/Washington Post CCI: Consumer Confidence Since 24-5 -1-15 -2-25 1/18/4 2/8/4 2/29/4 3/21/4 4/11/4 5/2/4 5/23/4 6/13/4 7/4/4 7/25/4 8/15/4 9/5/4 9/26/4 1/17/4 11/7/4 11/28/4 12/19/4 1/9/5 ABC News/Washington Post CCI Northeast South Midwest West This week -26-7 -5-1 12-month average -16-9 -12-8 Average since 1985-13 -11-4 -8
Starting last week The Washington Post replaced Money magazine as co-sponsor of this survey with ABC News. There s been no change in survey methodology. INDEX The ABC/Post CCI is composed of Americans ratings of the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. Forty-two percent rate the economy positively and 37 percent say it's a good time to buy things. As usual, many more, 57 percent, say their own finances are OK. Nationally, each is very close to its long-term average. ABC News/Washington Post CCI Positive ratings of: This week Last week 24 avg. 19-yr. avg. National economy 42% 41 38 4 Buying climate 37 38 39 39 Personal finances 57 58 57 57 Consumer Comfort Index -9-9 -11-9 TREND At -9, the index is near its 24 average, -11, an improvement from its 23 average, -19. Last year the index ranged from a low of -22 in March to a high of -3 in January. It s been as high as +38 in January 2, and as low as -5 in February 1992. 4 3 2 ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index Weekly tracking results since December 1985 Record High 1/16/ +38 1 Recession starts 3/1-1 -2-3 -4 Recession starts 7/9-5 -6 12/8/1985 12/8/1986 12/8/1987 12/8/1988 12/8/1989 12/8/199 12/8/1991 12/8/1992 12/8/1993 12/8/1994 12/8/1995 12/8/1996 12/8/1997 12/8/1998 12/8/1999 12/8/2 12/8/21 12/8/22 12/8/23 12/8/24 ABC/Post CCI Today -9 Last week -9 Three weeks ago -5 24 high -3 Jan. 18
24 low -22 March 14 24 average -11 23 average -19 22 average -11 2 average +29 Best full year 1992 average -44 Worst full year Jan. 16, 2 +38 Record high Feb. 9, 1992-5 Record low Average since 12/85-9 GROUPS Confidence as usual is stronger among better-off Americans. The index is +38 among higher-income people while -42 among those with the lowest incomes, +6 among college graduates while -36 among high-school dropouts, -5 among whites but -37 among blacks and -1 among men while -16 among women. It's +28 among Republicans, while -17 among independents and -32 among Democrats. ABC News/Washington Post CCI: Positive Ratings of Individual Gauges Since December 1985 9 8 7 Personal Finances 6 5 4 Buying Climate 3 2 1 National Economy 1/26/86 1/19/86 7/12/87 4/3/88 1/1/89 9/24/89 6/17/9 3/1/91 12/1/91 8/23/92 5/16/93 2/6/94 1/3/94 7/23/95 4/14/96 1/5/97 9/28/97 6/21/98 3/14/99 12/5/99 8/27/ 5/2/1 2/1/2 11/3/2 7/27/3 4/18/4 1/9/5 Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI: NATIONAL ECONOMY Forty-two percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 41 percent last week. The highest was 8 percent on Jan. 16, 2. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 42 3 39 58 36 22 Avg. since 12/85 4 3 37 6 4 2
PERSONAL FINANCES Fifty-seven percent say their own finances are excellent or good; it was 58 percent last week. The best was 7 percent on Aug. 3, 1998, matched in January 2. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 57 6 51 43 29 14 Avg. since 12/85 57 5 52 43 3 13 BUYING CLIMATE Thirty-seven percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 38 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2. The worst was 2 percent in fall 199. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. net Not good Poor This week 37 3 34 63 41 22 Avg. since 12/85 39 3 36 61 41 2 METHODOLOGY Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week s results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1, adults in the four weeks ending Jan. 9, 25. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by ICR- International Communications Research of Media, Pa. The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +1 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -1 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985. Analysis by Dalia Sussman. ABC News polls can be found online at http://abcnews.go.com/us/pollvault/. Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934 or Lisa Finkel, (212) 456-619.
1/9/5 This Last 4 Wks 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo 12 Mo 12 Mo Week Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Avg ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Group -------- GENERAL POPULATION: Overall Index -9-9 -6-11 -7-3 -22-11 State of Economy -16-18 -16-3 -16-12 -42-24 Personal Finances 14 16 18 16 14 22 4 14 Buying Climate -26-24 -2-2 -2-14 -32-22 ------------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Sex: Men -1 4-1 2 14-15 -2 Women -16-17 -14-22 -15-1 -28-19 Age: 18-34 1-3 -2-12 -4 3-23 -9 35-44 -15-12 -1-17 -5 11-29 -9 45-54 -11-9 -7-5 -1 1-23 -1 55-64 -9-11 -9-13 -2 3-34 -13 65+ -19-14 -13-9 -14 2-33 -14 Income: Under $15K -42-5 -46-45 -54-35 -68-53 $15K To $24.9K -52-49 -41-39 -35-21 -61-37 $25K To $39.9K -16-22 -23-31 -11-2 -44-22 $4K To $49.9K -3-1 -5-21 5 27-29 -7 Over $5K 19 22 29 16 24 35 7 2 $5K To $74.9K 4 1 11-2 N/A N/A N/A N/A $75K To $99.9K 21 21 37 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Over $1K 38 41 51 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Region: Northeast -26-19 -4-8 -11-4 -27-16 Midwest -5-7 -14-11 -14 7-29 -12 South -7-5 1-16 -2 4-21 -9 West -1-8 -8-9 -3 5-21 -8 Race: White -5-4 1-8 -1 3-19 -5 Black -37-35 -42-31 -35-2 -59-39 Politics: Republican 28 3 3 38 32 47 17 34 Democrat -32-31 -34-45 -3-28 -47-38 Independent -17-18 -8-23 -8-2 -4-19 Education: < High School -36-37 -31-51 -32-21 -6-4 High Sch. Grad. -19-17 -16-12 -17-2 -32-16 College + 6 5 1 1 1 14-1 3 Home: Own -1 1 5-6 1 7-16 -3 Rent -33-34 -31-3 -26-19 -46-31 Marital Status: Single -16-15 -15-15 -2-8 -29-19 Married 6 4 5-2 9 15-15 2 Sep/Wid/Div -41-33 -22-34 -24-21 -43-32 Employ. Status: Full-Time 2 5 6 1 7 12-16 1 Part-Time -1-15 -6-22 -14-2 -34-15 Not Employed -23-24 -19-25 -22-16 -36-24