Housing & Mortgage Outlook. Frank Nothaft Chief Economist May 22, 2018

Housing & Mortgage Outlook Frank Nothaft Chief Economist May 22, 2018

Economic & Housing Outlook Effect of higher mortgage rates Inventory-for-sale remains low Less refinance, more purchase & home-improvement HELOCs Tax reform effect on home prices and sales (none so far) 2

Short-term Interest Rates Heading Up Federal funds target as of today: 1.50% to 1.75% Federal funds target projected for December 31, 2018 (based on FOMC member projections): Federal Funds Target Number of FOMC Members Same as today 2 2.00% to 2.25% 6 Median 2.25% to 2.50% 6 2.50% to 2.75% 1 FOMC Members projecting 15 Source: Federal Open Market Committee projections released March 21, 2018 (individual FOMC participant s judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of 2018). 3

Mortgage Rates Heading Up Rates today at 4.5%; forecast to rise to 4.8% by Dec. 2018 & 5.1% by Dec. 2019 7% Interest Rate on 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages (percent) Forecast 6% 5% April 2011: 5.1% Sept. 2013: 4.5% Dec. 2019: 5.1% 4% Great Recession 3% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey ; forecast is an average of MBA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, NAHB, NAR and IHS Markit projections. 4 4

Effect of Higher Mortgage Rates Interest rates expected to rise in 2018: Affordability lessens Owner mobility may lessen, for-sale inventory remains lean Adds to home-price pressure: expect 6% national HPI rise in 2018 Single-family originations: less refinance, more purchase, HELOC flat New refi mix: more FHA-to-conventional, cash-out, longer-term New loans: credit box may open up, fraud risk may increase 5

Rising Rates A Hurdle for Home Sales Percent of home buyers that sell by length of ownership, 1976-2016 7% 6% Peak 3-7 Years 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0 3 6 9 12 15 Number of Years Source: CoreLogic 6 6

Rising Rates A Hurdle for Home Sales Percent of home buyers that sell by length of ownership, 1976-2016 7% 6% Rates down 1.5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Rates up 1.5% 0 3 6 9 12 15 Number of Years Source: CoreLogic 7 7

Percent Difference Between List Price and Sold Price Discount Premium Price Pressures Rapidly Increase As Supply Drops Below 3 Months 6% 4% San Jose San Francisco 2% 0% Seattle Los Angeles -2% -4% Houston -6% -8% Miami -10% -12% Source: CoreLogic (August 2017) Naples Atlantic City 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Months' Supply 8 8 8

Inventory Tighter for Entry-Level Buyers 5.0 4.5 August 2017 August 2016 Months Supply by Price Tier 4.0 4.2 Aug. 2017 3.5 Entry Level Supply 3.0 2.5 2.0 0-50 50-75 75-100 100-125 125-150 150-175 175-200 Price Tier (Percent of Median Price) Source: CoreLogic, National Association of Realtors 9 9 9

Demographic Tailwind Has Arrived Texas Population in 2017 (Millions) 0.43 Peak Millennial Age 0.42 0.41 Average Age Firsttime Homebuyer 0.40 0.39 0.38 Average Age Repeat Buyer 0.37 0.36 0.35 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 Age in 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates by state and age 10

Expect U.S. HPI Up 6% Per Year, 2018 & 2019 Oct. 2017 back at 2006 peak, but real (inflation-adjusted) index was 18% below 220 CoreLogic Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) Forecast 200 180 160 54% 140 120 100 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: CoreLogic HPI (May 1, 2018 release), U.S. HPI pre-recession peak occurred April 2006, trough March 2011; CoreLogic HPI Forecast 11 11

Expect Houston HPI Up 3% Per Year, 2018 & 2019 Mar. 2018 nominal 27% above 2007, real (inflation-adjusted) index 8% above 220 200 180 160 140 CoreLogic Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100) 54% Forecast U.S. Houston 48% 120 100 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: CoreLogic HPI (May 1, 2018 release), Houston CBSA pre-recession peak occurred June 2007, trough March 2011; CoreLogic HPI Forecast 12 12

CoreLogic SFRI Uses Rent of New Tenants; CPI Rent Index Exhibits a 12-Month Lag Percent Change from One Year Ago 6% 4% 2% CPI Rent CoreLogic SFRI 0% -2% -4% -6% Jan-05 Mar-07 May-09 Jul-11 Sep-13 Nov-15 Jan-18 CoreLogic SFRI CPI Rent of Primary Residence Source: CoreLogic Single-family Rental Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI (through February 2018) 13 13

Annual SF Rent Growth in Houston CBSA: Energy Jobs, Natural Disaster Affect Market Percent Change from One Year Ago 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% US SFRI Houston -6% Jan-05 Mar-07 May-09 Jul-11 Sep-13 Nov-15 Jan-18 Source: CoreLogic Single-family Rental Index (through February 2018) 14 14

Rent Growth Faster in Low-Vacancy Metro Areas Real Rent Growth (percent, 2016Q4 to 2017Q4) 4% Seattle San Francisco 2% San Diego Los Angeles Houston 0% -2% Linear Trend -4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Rental Vacancy Rate (percent, 2017) Source: CoreLogic Single-family Rental Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index less Shelter, U.S. Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey (Table 4), 35 metropolitan areas; line represents a univariate regression 15

Average Equity Gain per Homeowner in 2017 U.S.: Average $15,100 per home Houston, TX CBSA: Average $6,500 Source: CoreLogic Equity Report for 2017 Q4 16 16 16

HELOC Volume Projected to Hold Steady 7.5% growth in home improvement HELOCs projected for 2018 offsets decline in HELOCs for other purposes $400 Approved HELOCs (Billions of Dollars) $350 $300 $250 $200 Forecast $150 $100 $50 $0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Source: CoreLogic public records, second-lien HELOCs placed more than 60 days after first lien; Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies LIRA. 17 17

More Purchase, Less Refi in 2018 and 2019 Smaller refi share leads to more stable annual originations forecast after 2017 $2,100 $1,800 $1,500 $1,200 $900 $600 $300 Single-family Mortgage Originations (Billions of dollars) ---Forecast--- 2017 to 2018: Total: - 7% Refi: - 30% Purch: + 6% Refinance Purchase $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: 2009-2016 were benchmarked to HMDA. Forecast: 2018 & 2019 are an average of the latest projections released by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and Mortgage Bankers Association. Originations exclude HELOCs. 18 18

When Rates Rise, Refi Credit Scores Fall Refi Credit Scores Dip 10 points For Each 0.6% Rise in Mortgage Rates 30-Year FRM Rates (percent) Refinance Credit Score (mean) Inverse Scale 6 5 30 Year Rates (left) 715 725 Lower Credit Score 4 735 3 745 2 755 Refinance Credit Scores (right) 1 765 Jan 2009 Jul 2010 Jan 2012 Jul 2013 Jan 2015 Jul 2016 Jan 2018 Higher Credit Score Source: CoreLogic TrueStandings Servicing, Freddie Mac (monthly average 30-year FRM led one month) 19 19

Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017: Impact on Owner-Occupied Housing 1. Lowered maximum loan size for interest deductibility on new first liens to $750,000. 2. Eliminated interest deductibility on many second liens. 3. Capped annual tax deduction for state and local income and property taxes at $10,000. 4. Increased standard deduction reduces itemizers; lower marginal rates reduce deductions value for those who do itemize. Source: CoreLogic analysis of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Public Law no. 115-97 20

High-Cost Areas Price Trend Similar to Prior Years CoreLogic Median Price Index (2-week moving average, June 1 st -2 nd week=100) 115 110 105 House Bill Passed Nov. 16 Tax Law Signed Dec. 22 June 2017 to Feb. 2018 100 95 Average Four Prior Years 90 85 Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Source: CoreLogic, 2-week moving average of MLS median sales price in high-cost area ZIP codes 21 21 21

Lower-cost Areas Price Trend Similar to Past Years CoreLogic Median Price Index (2-week moving average, June 1 st -2 nd week=100) 115 110 House Bill Passed Nov. 16 Tax Law Signed Dec. 22 105 100 June 2017 to Feb. 2018 95 90 85 Average Four Prior Years Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Feb Source: CoreLogic, 2-week moving average of MLS median sales price in non-high-cost area ZIP codes 22 22 22

Economic & Housing Outlook Effect of higher mortgage rates Inventory-for-sale remains low Less refinance, more purchase & home-improvement HELOCs Tax reform effect on home prices and sales (none so far) 23

Where to find more information Look for regular updates to our housing forecast, commentary and data at http://www.corelogic.com/blog @CoreLogicEcon @DrFrankNothaft The views, opinions, forecasts and estimates herein are those of the CoreLogic Office of the Chief Economist, are subject to change without notice and do not necessarily reflect the position of CoreLogic or its management. The Office of the Chief Economist makes every effort to provide accurate and reliable information, however, it does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, timeliness or suitability for any particular purpose. CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. 24 24