(18 th -Feb-2019) 1
18 th -Feb-2019 MCX GOLD Daily Chart GOLD Commentary Fundamental News: Gold is at an inflection point as traders muse over what's more important to the market -- a U.S.-China trade deal that could knock bullion off its $1,300 perch or a spike in Brexit/Venezulea worries that may result in new 2019 highs. Technical Outlook: Gold has remains in a range bound trade in between 32465 to 33777. So, Buy near 33315 with TGT 33431 & 33574 SL 33200 or else Short below 33084 with TGT 32969 & 32826 SL 33200. R1 33431 R2 33574 R3 33805 Data to Watch: US FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims, CANADA BOC Gov Poloz Speaks, CANADA Core Retail Sales m/m, CANADA Retail Sales m/m, US FOMC Member Williams Speaks, EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks, US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks. S1 32969 S2 32826 S3 32595 MCX SILVER Daily Chart SILVER Commentary Fundamental News: The problem is the various conflicting interests in that path, i.e. a trade war resolution that would reduce the need for a hedge, versus a potential flare up in Brexit/ Venezuela that might drive more investors toward precious metals. Technical Outlook: Silver remains in a range bound trade. Go long near 39913 with TGT of 40066 & 40256 and maintain SL of 39759 or else Sell below 39606 with TGT 39452 & 39262 and keep SL of 39759 level. R1 40066 R2 40256 R3 40563 Data to Watch: US FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims, CANADA BOC Gov Poloz Speaks, CANADA Core Retail Sales m/m, CANADA Retail Sales m/m, US FOMC Member Williams Speaks, EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks, US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks. S1 39452 S2 39262 S3 38955 2
MCX CRUDE OIL Daily Chart CRUDE OIL Commentary Fundamental News: The bullish dominos keep falling for crude oil in 2019 with demand stable despite other economic indicators tipping into the red with sanctions and production cuts the world over. Technical Outlook: Crude Oil may expect a momentum trade.. Go long near 3923 With TGT of 3986 & 4063 and keep Sl of 3860 or else short near 3793 with TGT of 3735 & 3658 and keep stop loss of 3860. R1 3986 R2 4063 R3 4198 Data to Watch: US FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims, US Crude Oil Inventories, CANADA BOC Gov Poloz Speaks, CANADA Retail Sales m/m, US FOMC Member Williams Speaks, EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks, US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks. S1 3735 S2 3658 S3 3532 MCX NATURAL GAS Daily Chart NATURAL GAS Commentary Fundamental News: The March natural gas contract rebounded a couple percent today as weather models began adding back demand and weatheradjusted demand continued to impress. Technical Outlook: Natural Gas has remains in negative bias and any surge seen to utilize a selling opportunity. Go Short below 184 with TGT of 183.2 & 182.3 and keep stop loss of 184.7 Or else Go long near 185.4 with TGT of 186.2 & 188.6 and Keep SL of 184.7 level. Data to Watch: US Natural Gas Storage. R1 186.2 R2 188.6 R3 191.3 S1 183.2 S2 180.8 S3 179.1 3
MCX COPPER Daily Chart COPPER Commentary Fundamental News: Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were higher across the board at the close of trading on Friday February 15, with market sentiment continuing to improve amid US-China trade talks, while participants continue to shortcover after last week s price rally. Technical Outlook: Copper has witnessed a mild positive rally. So, go long near 440.6 with TGT of 442.9 & 445.75 and maintain Stop loss of 438.35 or else go short below 436.05 with TGT 433.75 & 430.95 and keep sl of 438.35 level. R1 442.9 R2 445.75 R3 450.3 S1 433.75 S2 430.95 S3 426.4 MCX ALUMINIUM Daily Chart Data to Watch: GBP Unemployment Rate, EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI, GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing, EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Core Durable Goods Orders m/ m, US Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims,, EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks, US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks. ALUMINIUM Commentary Fundamental News: Section 232 tariffs on aluminium and steel raised $3.6 billion in their first nine months, and revenues for the last two months are likely to push that figure up by around another $1 billion, US government data shows. Technical Outlook: Aluminium may expect a mild recovery until close below 130.1 level. So, go short near 131 with TGT of 130.35 & 129.5 keep SL of 131.7 & Go long near 132.35 with TGT of 133.05 & 135.35 and keep Sl of 131.7. R1 133.05 R2 135.35 R3 140.7 S1 129.5 S2 128.15 S3 126.6 Data to Watch: GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y, GBP Unemployment Rate, EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI, GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing, EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims, US FOMC Member Williams Speaks, EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks, US FOMC Member Clarida Speaks. 4
18 21 th st -May-2018 -Feb-2019 MCX LEAD Daily Chart LEAD Commentary Technical Outlook: Lead may expect a momentum trade. So, go long near 147.4 with TGT of 148.65 & 150.2 and keep SL of 146.2. Data to Watch: GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y, GBP Unemployment Rate, EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI, GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing, EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Durable Goods Orders m/m, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, US Unemployment Claims, EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks. R1 148.65 R2 150.15 R3 152.6 S1 143.75 S2 142.25 S3 139.75 MCX ZINC Daily Chart ZINC Commentary Technical Outlook: Zinc futures closed above $2,600 per tonne and continued to trade in a volatile trend after soaring to their highest level since August 2018 at $2,800 per tonne last week. So, long near 189.85 with TGT of 191.3 & 193.15 and SL of 188.35. MCX NICKEL Daily Chart Data to Watch: EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI, GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing, EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, US Core Durable Goods Orders m/m. R1 191.3 R2 193.15 R3 196.15 S1 185.35 S2 183.5 S3 180.55 NICKEL Commentary Technical Outlook: Nickel has witnessed a short covering rally. So, go long near 888.2 with TGT of 896.3 & 906.4 SL of 880.1 level. Data to Watch: GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y, GBP Unemployment Rate, EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment, EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI, GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing. R1 896.3 R2 906.4 R3 922.7 S1 863.8 S2 853.7 S3 837.5 5
Weekly MCX COMMODITY CHANGE Indices Close Change % GOLD 33384.00 142 0.43 SILVER 39962.00-143 -0.36 CRUDE OIL 3951.00 191 5.08 NATURAL GAS 186.60 1.7 0.92 COPPER 441.80-0.9-0.20 ALUMINIUM 131.15-2.55-1.91 LEAD 147.65-0.95-0.64 ZINC 190.45-2.3-1.19 NICKEL 881.00-14.7-1.64 ECONOMIC CALENDER Country Economic Event Forecast Previous Date &Time JAPAN Current Account 0.23T -0.78T 9th June (5.20 AM) JAPAN Final GDP q/q 1.4% 1.5% 9th June (5.20 AM) CANADA Housing Starts 185K 195K 9th June (5.45 PM) AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks - - 9th June (9.00 PM) GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y - 4.2% 10th June (4.31 AM) JAPAN Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -3.3% 2.4% 10th June (5.20 AM) AUD Home Loans m/m 0.3% -0.9% 10th June (7.00 AM) CHINA CPI y/y 2.4% 1.8% 10th June (7.00 AM) CHINA PPI y/y -1.5% -2.0% 10th June (7.00 AM) EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.3% -0.7% 10th June (12.15 PM) CHINA New Loans 750B 775B 10th 14th June GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.4% 0.5% 10th June (2.00 PM) Source : Forex Factory 6
Source : Forex Factory ECONOMIC CALENDER 7
Source : Forex Factory ECONOMIC CALENDER 8
RESEARCHED & PREPARED BY B.KESAVAMOORTHY SENIOR RESEARCH MANAGER EMAIL ID: KESAVAMOORTHY.B@SKYCOMMODITIES.IN CONTACT NO: 0422-4700840 LAL S Disclaimer This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and is not for public distribution The information provided in the document is from information /data. available in public domain and other sources, which we believe, are reliable. We have made our best efforts to try and ensure accuracy of data however, Sky Commodities and/or any of its affiliates and/or employees shall not liable for resultant loss or damage that may arise from use of this document Sky Commodities and/or any of its affiliates and/or employees may or may not hold positions in any of the securities mentioned in the document. Investors should not solely rely on the information contained in this document and must make investment decisions based on their own investment objectives, risk appetite, investment horizon, financial strength or other parameter. The recipients of this material should take their own professional advice or consult your SEBI registered Investment Adviser for your specific Investment related advice/requirements and/or before acting on this information. The report also includes analysis and views expressed by our research team. The report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing in the material and may be subject to change from time to time without notice. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to local law, regulation or which would subject Sky Commodities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. 9