Business Information http://economicresearch-e.ba-ca.com X PLICIT Key Economic Indicators June 2005 Banking for success. A Member of HVB Group
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR AUSTRIA* Percentage change over previous year 2003 2004 2005 2 2006 2 GDP (real) 3 0.8 2.0.7 2.4 GDP (nominal) 2.3 3.9 3.8 4.2 Private consumption 3 0.6.5 2. 2.5 Investment in machinery & equipment 3 5. 6.3 2.5 4.6 Investment in construction 3 7.0..9 2.0 Exports of goods & services 3.4 9.0 4.8 6. Imports of goods & services 3 4.8 6.6 4.9 6.4 Consumer prices.3 2. 2.5.7 Public Sector: Budget (in % of GDP)..3 2..7 Debt (in % of GDP) 64.7 64.2 64.2 63.2 Unemployment rate in % (Eurostat) 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.2 Unemployment rate 4 7.0 7. 6.9 6.6 preliminary figures 2 Bank Austria Creditanstalt forecast 3 based on 995 prices 4 national definition GROWTH OF REAL GDP IN AUSTRIA* Percentage change over previous year, 986-2006 5 4 3 2 986 988 990 992 994 996 998 2000 2002 2004 2006 calculated in accordance with ESA 95. 2004 preliminary figures. 2005 and 2006 Bank Austria Creditanstalt forecast
AUSTRIA S GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)* In Euro billion. Gross value added (at current prices) 200 2002 2003 2004 Agriculture, forestry 4.5 4.04 3.96 3.98 Mining, manufacturing 40.09 40.56 4.7 44.38 Energy & water supply 4.26 4.66 4.99 5.05 Construction 4.53 4.65 5.53 5.98 Wholesale/retail 25.62 25.97 26.3 27.05 Restaurants, hotels 8.28 8.83 9.28 9.73 Transport, communication 3.93 4.50 5.34 5.76 Finance, insurance 0.38.0 0.73.5 Real estate and business services 32.45 33.67 34.63 36.09 Government services.82.89 2.20 2.38 Other service activities 27.58 27.5 28.5 29.05 Taxes on products 25.78 26.66 26.93 27.50 Subsidies on products 3.27 3.03 3.07 3.05 Gross Domestic Product (nominal) 25.59 22.0 226.4 235.05 In Euro billion. Expenditures (at current prices) 200 2002 2003 2004 Private consumption 22.96 24.25 26.92 3.35 Public consumption 38.84 39.64 40.63 4.86 Gross fixed capital formation 48.35 46.5 49.50 5.0 Statistical discrepancy 0.29 0.43 0.3 0.49 Total domestic demand 20.44 209.97 27.9 223.74 plus exports of goods & services 02.9 07.46 09.06 20.5 less imports of goods & services 97.76 96.42 00. 08.84 Gross Domestic Product (nominal) 25.59 22.0 226.4 235.05 *Economic data are computed in accordance with the European System of Integrated Economic Accounts (ESA 95). rounding-off errors
AUSTRIA Annual or monthly averages, change over previous year Industrial Retail Exports production nominal 2002 0. 0.6 4.3 2003 2.3.5 2.0 2004 7.0 2.3 3.2 2004 Nov. 0.4 6.7 9.4 2004 Dec. 8.3 2.4.9 2005 Jan. 6.0 0.4 5.3 2005 Feb. 4.3.3 8. TOURISM IN AUSTRIA Travel revenues and expenditures, in Euro million Revenues Expendit. Balance Overnight 2002,887 9,923,964 6,798 2003 2,336 0,397,939 7,924 2004 2,39 9,78 3,23 7,243 2003 4. Qtr. 2,386,904 483 7,43 2004. Qtr. 3,935,338 2,597 39,630 2. Qtr. 2,667 2,200 466 2,56 3. Qtr. 3,535 4,205 670 39,74 4. Qtr. 2,253,434 89 6,32 overnight stays (Austrians and foreigners) in thousand AUSTRIA S LABOUR MARKET Annual average or end-of-month value, in thousand Employed Unemployed Joblessrate 2002 3,54.5 232.4 6.9% 2003 3,84. 240. 7.0% 2004 3,99.0 243.9 7.% 2004 Dec. 3,67.2 298. 7.% 2005 Jan. 3,52.2 36.0 7.% 2005 Feb. 3,54. 30.0 7.% 2005 March 3,85.9 272.6 7.2% 2005 April 3,203.3 245.8 7.% national definition, monthly figures seasonally adjusted
AUSTRIA S FOREIGN TRADE 2004 Imports: EUR 89.42 billion Africa, Australia and Oceania.2% America 4.4% Asia 9.2 % Eastern Europe without EU members 3.8% EFTA and other European countries 4.3% Other EU 25 countries 3.9% New EU member states (CEE).0% Euro area 62.2% AUSTRIA S FOREIGN TRADE 2004 Exports: EUR 89.3 billion Africa, Australia and Oceania.9% America 7.7% Asia 6.5% Eastern Europe without EU members 6.% EFTA and other European countries 6.2% Other EU 25 countries 6.0% New EU member states (CEE) 2.6% Euro area 53.0%
REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Percentage change over previous year 5 4 3 2 0 USA OECD Euro 2 Euro 25 Austria 2000 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 forecast 3-MONTH INTEREST RATES In percent, monthly averages 5 4 3 2 0 Switzerland Japan GB USA Euro 2 4.03 7.03 0.03.04 4.04 7.04 0.04.05 4.05
CONSUMER PRICES Percentage change over previous year 4 3 2 0 Euro 2 Japan Germany USA Austria 4.03 7.03 0.03.04 4.04 7.04 0.04.05 4.05 measured against the HICPs BOND YIELDS (SECONDARY MARKET) In percent, 0-year government obligations 5 4 3 2 0 Switzerland Japan Germany USA Austria 4.03 7.03 0.03.04 4.04 7.04 0.04.05 4.05
SHARE PRICE INDICES January, 2000 = 00 260 220 80 40 00 60 ATX CECE (EUR) 4.03 7.03 0.03.04 4.04 7.04 0.04.05 4.05 00 90 80 70 60 50 Euro Stoxx 50 Nikkei 225 4.03 7.03 0.03.04 4.04 7.04 0.04.05 4.05 00 90 80 70 60 50 Dow Jones Industrial NASDAQ 4.03 7.03 0.03.04 4.04 7.04 0.04.05 4.05
NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2004 World EU 25 Euro Germ. Austria GDP region In Euro billion 32,497 0,23 7,557 2,77 235 Share in % of World GDP 00.0 3.4 23.3 6.7 0.7 USA Japan China Russia Central& Eastern Europe in Euro billion 9,382 3,755,28 468 599 Share in % of World GDP 28.9.6 3.9.4.8 new EU countries included REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Percentage change over previous year Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 2000 3.4 2.9 3.6 3.7 2.4 200 0.7 0.8 3.4 0.8 0.2 2002.2 0.2 0.9.9 0.3 2003 0.8 0.0 0.5 3.0.4 2004 2.0.6.8 4.4 2.6 2005 2.7..3 3.4.5 2006 2 2.4.6 2.0 3.0.7 preliminary figures 2 Bank Austria Creditanstalt forecast, HVB CONSUMER PRICES Percentage change over previous year Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 2000 2.0 2. 2.3 3.4 0.7 200 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 0.7 2002.7.3 2.3.6 0.9 2003.3.0 2. 2.3 0.3 2004 2.0.7 2. 2.7 0.0 2005 2 2.3.7 2.0 3.0 0. 2006 2.7.6.7 3.0 0. measured against the HICPs 2 Bank Austria Creditanstalt forecast, HVB
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In percent, annual or monthly averages Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 2000 3.7 7.2 8. 4.0 4.7 200 3.6 7.4 7.8 4.8 5.0 2002 4.2 8.2 8.2 5.8 5.4 2003 4.3 9.0 8.7 6.0 5.2 2004 4.5 9.5 8.8 5.5 4.7 2005 2 4.4 0.4 8.9 5.2 4.4 2006 2 4.2 0.0 8.6 5.0 4.3 2004 2. Qtr. 4.5 9.5 8.8 5.6 4.6 3. Qtr. 4.5 9.6 8.8 5.4 4.8 4. Qtr. 4.5 9.6 8.8 5.4 4.5 2005. Qtr. 4.6 9.7 8.8 5.3 4.5 EU countries are computed pursuant to the Eurostat method 2 BA-CA forecast, HVB BUDGET DEFICIT/SURPLUS In percent of GDP Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 2000.5.3 0..6 7.5 200 0.3 2.8.7 0.4 6. 2002 0.2 3.7 2.4 3.8 7.9 2003. 3.8 2.8 4.6 7.7 2004.3 3.7 2.7 3.5 7.8 2005 2 2. 3.3 2.8 3.6 8.0 2006 2.7 3.3 2.8 3.4 8.2 preliminary figures 2 forecast CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES In percent of GDP Austria Germ. Euro 2 USA Japan 2000 2.6.0 0.9 4.5 2.5 200.9 0. 0.0 4.3 2.2 2002 0.3 2.8 0.9 4.5 2.8 2003 0.5 2.2 0.3 4.8 3.2 2004 0.3 3.8 0.6 5.7 3.6 2005 2 0.7 3.4 0.5 6.3 3.5 2006 2 0.4 3.2 0.5 5.6 3.6 preliminary figures 2 forecast
MEAN EXCHANGE RATE OF THE EURO In currency for one Euro, annual or monthly averages USD JPY GBP CHF SEK RUB 999.07 2.4 0.66.60 8.8 26.5 2000 0.92 99.5 0.6.56 8.45 26.0 200 0.90 08.7 0.62.5 9.26 26.2 2002 0.94 8. 0.63.47 9.6 29.7 2003.3 3.0 0.69.52 9.3 34.7 2004.24 34.4 0.68.54 9.2 35.8 2005 Jan..3 35.6 0.70.55 9.05 36.7 2005 Feb..30 36.6 0.69.55 9.09 36.4 2005 March.32 38.8 0.69.55 9.09 36.5 2005 April.29 38.8 0.68.55 9.7 36.0 PLN CZK SKK HUF SIT HRK 999 4.23 36.9 44.3 252.7 94.4 7.6 2000 4.0 35.6 43.4 260.0 206.6 7.7 200 3.67 34. 43.3 256.6 28.0 7.5 2002 3.85 30.8 4.0 243.0 226.0 7.4 2003 4.40 3.8 4.5 253.5 233.9 7.6 2004 4.53 3.9 40.0 25.7 239. 7.5 2005 Jan. 4.08 30.3 38.6 246.5 239.8 7.5 2005 Feb. 3.99 30.0 38.0 243.7 239.7 7.5 2005 March 4.0 29.8 38.3 244.8 239.7 7.5 2005 April 4.6 30. 39.2 248.2 239.7 7.4 Reference rates of the ECB, national statistics KEY INTEREST RATES Rate prevailing on last change May 20, 2005 since in % points Euro 2 (repo) 2.00% June 2003 0.50 USA (fed funds) 3.00% May 2005 0.25 Japan (discount) 0.0% Sept. 200 0.5 Switzerland (SNB targetband) 0.25.25% Sept. 2004 0.25 UK (base rate) 4.75% Aug. 2004 0.25
You will find economic analyses on Bank Austria Creditanstalt s homepage: www.ba-ca.com under Analyses & Research in the section Economic Research or directly at http://economicresearch-e.ba-ca.com Published by Bank Austria Creditanstalt AG 030 Vienna, Vordere Zollamtsstrasse 3 00 Vienna, Am Hof 2 Edited by Economics Department Bernhard Sinhuber, telephone +43 (0)5 05 05/4964 (email: economic.research@ba-ca.com) Production: Public Relations Department Printed by Holzhausen Graphics: Hans Ljung Photo: Mauritius Sources: Bank Austria Creditanstalt, HVB Research, Eurostat, ECB, OECD, OeNB, Statistik Austria, WIFO, Datastream Closing Date: May 20, 2005