Equity Research 21 August, 20 Opus Group US could be supportive Q2 EBITDA slightly better than expected US platform in place Relative pricing in favor Q2 figures The Q2 EBITDA of SEK 94m (88) was 2-3% above our forecast. The y/y improvement reflects the USD appreciation, which offsets the higher costs generated by the change in the business model in California, and the loss of volumes in British Columbia and Colorado. In Sweden, Opus improved its EBITDA by around % y/y. The new IT system is in place, and Opus has regained some market share. In addition, price increases have been supportive. The financial net reflected a currency effect of SEK -38m, which can be compared to the positive impact of SEK 52m seen in Q1. The effect was the result of the weaker USD in Q2. US platform in place Opus s US contract portfolio seems solid enough, with the major contracts being boxed in for an extended period. In the longer term, tougher US emission standards will require more states to implement vehicle inspections. The Missouri contract has been awarded to a competitor. However, there will be protests, as the procurement standards were changed during the process. We therefore believe Opus will probably retain the contract, at least in the short term. Attractively priced The share received a beating following publication of the Q2 report, which was slightly ahead of our estimates. Even though we trim our forecasts somewhat, we believe opportunities are in place and we expect earnings to improve. The share is trading at a discount to peers. We upgrade our recommendation to Buy (Neutral) with a target price of SEK 9 (). Key figures (SEKm) 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e Net sales 469 1,047 1,458 1,652 1,621 1,800 EBITDA 49.9 162 256 351 404 456 EBITDA 49.9 162 256 351 404 456 Earnings before tax -.9 89.7 185 138 213 285 EPS (recurring) -0.01 0.22 0.50 0.39 0.53 0.72 EPS (earnings per share) -0.01 0.22 0.50 0.37 0.53 0.72 Dividend per share 0.02 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.20 Dividend yield 0.8% 0.4% 1.0% 1.6% 2.0% 2.5% Net sales-growth 3.9% 123.4% 39.2% 13.3% -1.9% 11.0% EPS-Growth (recurring) nm nm 121.2% -21.3% 36.6% 33.9% EBITDA-margin.6%.4% 17.6% 21.3% 24.9% 25.3% EBIT-margin 3.0% 12.6%.9% 11.8% 16.0% 18.1% Net debt/ebitda ratio 6.36 0.51 2.66 1.97 1.41 0.72 EV/Sales 2.08 3.93 2.21 1.83 1.79 1.48 EV/EBITDA 19.5 25.4 12.6 8.6 7.2 5.8 EV/EBIT nm 31.2 20.3.6 11.2 8.2 P/E (recurring) nm nm 17.8 20.8.2 11.4 P/E nm nm 17.8 21.8.2 11.4 FCF-yield 6.9% 2.4% 0.1% 5.0% 6.8% 12.4% FCF / Net Profit -1995.6% 9.7% 1.1% 116.3% 3.4% 0.8% Note: EBIT, EBITDA is excl. income from associated comp and non-recurring items. Estimate changes Performance Q2 report 20Q4E Mats Liss Swedbank Research +46 8 5859 0065, mats.liss@swedbank.se Andrej Rodionov, CFA Swedbank Research +370 525 82 395, andrej.rodionov@swedbank.lt Buy (Neutral) Target price: SEK 9.00 (.0) Share price: SEK 7.40 20e 2016e 2017e Net sales -0.4% -7.2% -6.6% EBITDA 2.5% -8.4% -7.1% EPS (recurring) -6.3% -11.8% -8.6% 17 16 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Opus Group OMXSPI Peers -1m -3m -12m Absolute -6.9% -17.7% -39.9% vs. OMXSPI -0.6% -12.6% -47.4% Rel. peers -4.6% -.0% -41.9% High 8.85 9.65 13.1 Low 8. 7.55 6.81 Technology Date for prices 20 Aug 20 17:30 Date for input-data 21 Aug 20 Next report 20 November 20 Reuters/Bloomberg OPUS.ST/OPUS@SS No of shares (m) 287 Avg. turnover(sekm) 5.36 Free float (%) 85.0% Mcap(SEKm) 2,201 Mcap(EURm) 231 EV(SEKm) 2,892 BV/share 20e 3.38 P/BV 20e 2.41 ROE 20e 12.6% ROCE 20e 9.9% ROIC 20e 25.6% Equity ratio 20e 39.3% CAGR Net sales 20-17 7.3% CAGR EBT 20-17.5% CAGR EPS 20-17 12.9% August 21, 20 Please see importantdisclosures at the end of thisdocument Page 1 of 9
Forecast and outcome Q2 20 SWB % div. SME % div. Q2 20 % div. Sales 452 459-1.4% n.m. 23418 467-3.1% n.m. 404 12.0% n.m. EBITDA-reported 94 92 2.4% 87 8.8% 89 EBITDA -margin 20.8% 20.0% 18.5% 22.0% EBIT - reported 55 53 2.7% 46 19.2% 63-12.8% EBIT -margin 12.1% 11.6% 9.9%.6% EBIT - adjusted (1) 55 53 2.7% 46 19.2% 63-12.8% EBIT -margin 12.1% 11.6% 0 n.m. 9.9% 0 n.m..6% 0 n.m. PTP - reported 1 9-88.0% 0 464.5% 65-98.3% PTP - adjusted (1) 1 9-88.0% n.m. 0 464.5% n.m. 65-98.3% n.m. EPS - reported -0.01 0.02-0.0% -0.01 0.0% 0.17-5.9% EPS - adjusted (1) -0.01 0.02-0.0% -0.01 0.0% 0.17-5.9% (1) Excl e o items Outcome SWB % div. SME % div. Q2 20 % div. Sales Equipment 37 36 3.7% #DIV/0! 34 8.9% Vehicle Inspection (International) 259 262-1.3% #DIV/0! 2 20.9% Vehicle Inspection (Sw eden) 166 167-0.7% #DIV/0! 162 2.4% Group & Eliminations -9-6 -3,578-6 Sales 452 459 2.3% 4670-3.1% 404 12.0% EBITDA 0 0 Equipment 1 2-69.7% #DIV/0! 2-76.3% EBIT-margin 1.5% 5.1% #DIV/0! 6.8% Vehicle Inspection (International) 60.749 61 0.2% #DIV/0! 54 12.1% EBIT-margin 23.5% 23.1% #DIV/0! 25.3% Vehicle Inspection (Sw eden) 36.837 32.8% #DIV/0! 34.0% EBIT-margin 22.2% 19.0% #DIV/0! 20.7% Other -4-2 -199-27 EBITDA 94 92 2.4% 46 4.8% 63 49.8% EBITDA-margin 20.8% 20.0% 9.9%.6% Source:Swedbank, Opus, SME Sales declined by 2.5% to SEK 452m adjusted for FX and acquisitions, which was slightly behind our forecast. The main reason behind the negative organic growth is the close down of vehicle inspection in British Columbia and Colorado. The EBITDA amounted to SEK 94m, which was an improvement compared to last years SEK 88m. The improvement is due to the strengthening of USD, while upfront sales commissions in California, British Columbia and Colorado had a negative impact. The financial net was negatively impacted by SEK 38m since the USD lost some momentum during the 2 nd quarter. During Q1 the positive impact was SEK 52m. Opus has a net claim of USD 90m. The impact will be limited during the balance of the year. August 21, 20 Please see importantdisclosures at the end of thisdocument Page 2 of 9
Company description Opus Group operates vehicle inspection programs, which accounts for about 91% of the company s turnover. Vehicle Inspection Sweden consists of Opus Bilprovning, with 74 vehicle inspection stations. Vehicle Inspection International operates vehicle inspection programs and offers emission control equipment sales and servicing to the North American and South American markets. The Group also develops, produces and sells equipment and IT systems for the vehicle inspection industry. Net sales per business area 20 EBITDA per business area 20 Group & Eliminations, 0% Equipment (Europe & Asia), 9% Group & Eliminations, -3% Equipment (Europe & Asia), 3% Vehicle Inspection (Sweden), 37% Vehicle Inspection (International), 52% Vehicle Inspection (Sweden), 31% Vehicle Inspection (International), 63% Source: Swedbank Research and Opus Group Source: Swedbank Research and Opus Group EBITDA-margin vs. EV/Net sales Net sales and EBITDA-margin 4.0 38 1,800 26 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 34 30 26 22 18 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 24 22 20 18 16 12 0.5 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e 200 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e EV / SALES EBITDA Marg (%) Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA Marg (%) Source: Swedbank Research and Opus Group Source: Swedbank Research and Opus Group Other company information CEO CFO IR Magnus Greko Annica Lindström Peter Stenström Homepage www.opus.se Phone +46 31 748 34 93 Address Bäckstensgatan 11C, SE-431 49 Mölndal, Sweden Annual General Meeting 21 April 20 Dividend settlement day 22 April 20 Source: Opus Group Shareholders Votes Capital AB Kommandoran.6%.6% Lothar Geilen 6.7% 6.7% Andra AP-fonden 6.5% 6.5% Invesco Funds 4.3% 4.3% SHB Funds 3.1% 3.1% Avanza Pension Insurance 3.1% 3.1% Schroder Investment Mgmt 2.9% 2.9% Foreign shareholders na na Free float 85.0% 85.0% Votes/Share - A/B na na Source: SIS Ägarservice and Opus Group August 21, 20 Please see importantdisclosures at the end of thisdocument Page 3 of 9
Quarterly data Quarterly data (SEKm) Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20e Q4 20e Net Sales 297 404 361 395 401 452 388 412 EBITDA 45.4 88.8 62.7 59.4 59.9 97.0 96.0 98.4 EBITA 32.2 62.9 35.4 28.0 20.5 57.6 56.7 59.9 EBIT 32.2 62.9 35.4 28.0 20.5 57.6 56.7 59.9 Non recurring items 0.0 0.0 0.0 -.0-9.0-2.8-6.5 0.0 Operating earning 32.2 62.9 35.4 18.0 11.5 54.9 50.2 59.9 Earnings from shares in associated comp. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net financial items -8.6 2.4 19.5 23.4 40.5-53.7-13.0-12.6 Earnings before tax (reported) 23.6 65.3 54.8 41.5 52.0 1.1 37.2 47.3 Earnings before tax (recurring) na na na na na na na na Tax -6.9-16.1-9.5 -.5 -.4-2.6 -.4-13.2 Minority share in net earnings 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net earnings (reported) 16.7 49.1 45.3 31.0 41.6-1.5 26.8 34.0 Net earnings (recurring) 16.7 49.1 24.1 31.0 41.6-1.5 26.8 34.0 Net earnings (adjusted excl. goodwill depr.) 16.7 49.1 24.1 31.0 41.6-1.5 26.8 34.0 EPS (recurring) 0.07 0.20 0.18 0.12 0.16-0.01 0.09 0.12 EPS (reported) 0.07 0.20 0.18 0.12 0.16-0.01 0.09 0.12 Tax rate 29.3% 24.7% 17.4% 25.2% 20.0% 229.2% 28.0% 28.0% Net sales Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20e Q4 20e Equipment (Europe & Asia) 35.7 33.9 26.6 39.2 36.7 36.8 na na Vehicle Inspection (International) 123 2 221 226 235 259 271 277 Vehicle Inspection (Sweden) 3 162 118 136 139 166 121 1 Group & Eliminations -4.2-5.6-4.2-6.6-9.8-9.2-5.1-5.5 Group total 297 404 361 395 401 452 388 412 EBITDA Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20e Q4 20e Equipment (Europe & Asia) 1.1 2.3 1.7 2.7 2.4 0.5 na na Vehicle Inspection (International) 26.5 54.2 47.9 42.6 46.2 63.5 78.4 77.4 Vehicle Inspection (Sweden) 18.5 33.5.6 19.2 13.2 36.8 20.7 24.5 Group & Eliminations -0.7-1.2-1.6-5.1-1.9-3.9-3.1-3.5 Group total 45.4 88.8 62.7 59.4 59.9 97.0 96.0 98.4 EBITDA-margin Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20e Q4 20e Equipment (Europe & Asia) 3.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.8% 6.5% 1.5% na na Vehicle Inspection (International) 21.6% 25.4% 21.7% 18.9% 19.6% 24.6% 28.9% 28.0% Vehicle Inspection (Sweden) 12.9% 20.6% 12.4%.1% 9.5% 22.2% 17.1% 17.4% Group & Eliminations 17.7% 21.5% 38.1% 76.8% 19.6% 43.0% 61.6% 64.0% Group total.3% 22.0% 17.4%.1%.9% 21.4% 24.8% 23.9% Growth Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20e Q4 20e Net sales 30.8% 57.8% 42.0% 27.6% 34.8% 11.8% 7.2% 4.3% EBITDA 69.6% 90.4% 43.5% 33.4% 32.0% 9.2% 53.1% 65.7% EBITA 89.1% 60.2% -4.4% -26.9% -36.4% -8.4% 60.3% 113.6% EBIT 89.1% 60.2% -4.4% -26.9% -36.4% -8.4% 60.3% 113.6% Earnings before tax (recurring) na na na na na na na na EPS (recurring) 8.5% 113.7% 72.5% 224.7% 7.5% nm -47.8% -3.1% EPS (reported) 8.5% 113.7% 72.5% 224.7% 7.5% nm -47.8% -3.1% August 21, 20 Please see importantdisclosures at the end of thisdocument Page 4 of 9
Income statement Income Statement (SEKm) 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e Net Sales 227 230 469 1,047 1,458 1,652 1,621 1,800 Other operating income 1.8 1.6 1.9 7.2 8.9 6.0 5.8 6.5 Operating expenses -190-199 -419-886 -1,201-1,301-1,218-1,344 Cost of goods sold 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 R&D expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sales expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Administration expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating expenses -192-200 -421-893 -1,2-1,307-1,224-1,350 Reversals 36.0 32.2 35.8 29.9 97.7 7 5 131 EBITDA 36.8 31.1 49.9 162 256 351 404 456 Depreciation (tangible fixed assets) -36.0-32.2-35.8-29.9-97.7-7 -5-131 EBITA 0.8-1.1.0 132 9 195 259 326 Goodwill amortization 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Development and amortization 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBIT 0.8-1.1.0 132 9 195 259 326 Write-downs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0-6.5 0.0 0.0 Capital gain 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Restructuring expenses and provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other non-recurring items -7.0-2.5-19.9-19.8 -.0-11.8 0.0 0.0 Operating earning -6.2-3.6-5.8 112 9 176 259 326 Earnings from shares in associated comp. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net interest income -3.8-1.1-5.1-11.6-41.0-48.9-46.2-40.4 Financial income 0.0 0.2 4.8 2.2 1.9 1.1 2.9 4.6 Financial expenses -3.8-1.3-9.9-13.8-43.0-50.0-49.1-45.0 Other financial income and expenses 0.0 0.1 0.0 -.6 77.7.1 0.0 0.0 Earnings before tax (reported) -.0-4.6 -.9 89.7 185 138 213 285 Earnings before tax (recurring) -3.0-2.1 9.0 9 195 6 213 285 Tax on earnings for the year 0.0-0.5 8.6-28.4-43.0-36.6-59.6-79.8 Minority share in net earnings 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net earnings (reported) -.0-5.2-2.3 61.3 2 1 3 205 Adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 Net earnings (recurring) -.0-5.2-2.3 61.3 2 6 3 205 Net earnings (adjusted excl. goodwill depr.) -.0-5.2-2.3 61.3 2 6 3 205 EPS (recurring) -0.05-0.02-0.01 0.22 0.50 0.39 0.53 0.72 EPS (reported) -0.05-0.02-0.01 0.22 0.50 0.37 0.53 0.72 Tax rate 0.2% nm 79.2% 31.7% 23.2% 26.6% 28.0% 28.0% Net sales 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e Equipment (Europe & Asia) na na 124 123 135 73.5 na na Vehicle Inspection (International) na na 275 387 783 1,042 1,048 1,164 Vehicle Inspection (Sweden) na na 72.2 551 560 566 595 660 Group & Eliminations na na -2.6 -.2-20.6-29.6-21.4-23.8 Group total 227 230 469 1,047 1,458 1,652 1,621 1,800 EBITDA 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e Equipment (Europe & Asia) na na 0.5 5.7 7.7 2.9 na na Vehicle Inspection (International) na na 41.9 69.9 171 266 309 343 Vehicle Inspection (Sweden) na na 7.4 85.1 85.9 95.3 8 126 Group & Eliminations na na 0.0 0.7-8.6-9.8-12.6 -.1 Group total 36.8 31.1 49.9 162 256 351 404 456 August 21, 20 Please see importantdisclosures at the end of thisdocument Page 5 of 9
Balance sheet & Cash flow Balance sheet (SEKm) 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e Goodwill 0 2 417 470 624 821 821 821 Other intangible fixed assets 93.8 67.6 66.6 57.4 288 361 325 295 Tangible fixed assets 45.0 43.1 136 130 688 683 6 559 Shares in associated companies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other financial fixed assets 6.7 5.8 39.3 27.4 43.2 36.2 36.2 36.2 Other fixed assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total fixed assets 246 218 658 685 1,643 1,901 1,797 1,712 Inventories 38.3 44.5 68.6 85.9 8 111 1 126 Current receivables 34.1 40.5 2 135 194 211 2 238 cash and short term investments.3 22.9 97.0 453 382 237 283 252 Total current assets 87.7 8 268 673 684 560 611 616 Total assets 333 326 926 1,358 2,327 2,461 2,408 2,327 Shareholders' equity 242 239 262 466 639 968 1,084 1,244 Minority holdings 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Covertible debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Long term interest bearing liabilities 37.1 13.0 324 455 871 796 761 526 Pension provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tax provisions 3.0 0.2 27.4 40.4 9 9 9 9 Other provisions 0.3 0.0 30.0 74.5 91.7 1 1 1 Current interest bearing liabilities 20.0 29.3 90.0 80.8 193 133 92.6 52.6 Accounts payable 12.0.3 43.1 59.7 47.8 45.6 46.6 51.8 Other liabilities 19.3 29.1 9 182 326 258 163 193 Total shareholder's eq. and liabilities 333 326 926 1,358 2,327 2,461 2,408 2,327 Net debt 41.8 19.4 317 82.9 682 692 570 327 Capital employed 299 282 676 1,001 1,703 1,897 1,938 1,823 Invested capital 183 7 9 72.8 689 834 828 745 Invested capital (excl Goodwill) 82.9 55.1-258 -397 65.4 12.7 7.5-76.4 Change interest-bearing net debt -17.8-22.4 298-234 599.1-121 -243 Net debt/equity ratio 17.3% 8.1% 121.0% 17.8% 6.7% 71.4% 52.6% 26.3% Equity ratio 72.5% 73.4% 28.3% 34.3% 27.4% 39.3% 45.0% 53.4% Cash flow (SEKm) 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e Operating earnings -6.2-3.6-5.8 112 9 176 259 326 Depreciation 36.0 32.2 35.8 29.9 97.7 7 5 131 Non cash items 0.7-0.1-9.0.8-33.7-26.2 0.0 0.0 Net Financial items -3.8-1.0-5.1-22.2 36.6-38.8-46.2-40.4 Tax paid 0.0-0.5 8.6-28.4-43.0-36.6-59.6-79.8 Cash flow before chg in working cap 26.8 26.9 24.5 2 206 231 298 336 Change in working capital -3.1 8.3 31.0 12.5-47.7-91.6-98.8-1.8 Cash flow from ongoing operations 23.7 35.2 55.5 1 8 0 199 334 Investments in tangible fixed assets -6.4-1.7-8.7-11.6-133 -66.1-32.4-36.0 Investments in intangible fixed assets -2.0-2.0-1.8-4.9-26.9-8.3-8.1-9.0 Divestitures of fixed assets 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 52.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow.3 31.7 45.1 97.9 1.6 117 9 289 Divestures of financial fixed assets 0.0 0.0-2.3-2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Investments and disposals net 0.0 0.0-220 -2.1-541 -231 0.0 0.0 Cash flow after investments.3 31.7-177 93.5-539 -1 9 289 Dividends to shareholders 0.0 0.0-3.9-4.6 -.1-25.8-37.3-45.9 New shares issues and repurchases 0.0 0.0 41.0 4 0.7 6 0.0 0.0 change in interest bearing debt -.6-24.7 2 124 465-7 -75.0-275 Other sales -0.7 0.7-0.7-0.1 17.7 5.7 0.0 0.0 Change in liquid assets 0.0 7.6 74.0 356-70.6-5 46.2-31.7 Cash flow drivers 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e D+A / Sales.9%.0% 7.6% 2.9% 6.7% 9.5% 8.9% 7.3% Capex / Sales 3.7% 1.6% 2.2% 1.6% 11.0% 4.5% 2.5% 2.5% Working capital / Sales 18.1% 17.7% -4.6% -2.0% -5.0% 1.1% 7.3% 6.6% Tax rate 0.2% nm 79.2% 31.7% 23.2% 26.6% 28.0% 28.0% August 21, 20 Please see importantdisclosures at the end of thisdocument Page 6 of 9
Key ratios and share data Key figures (SEK) 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e EPS (recurring) -0.05-0.02-0.01 0.22 0.50 0.39 0.53 0.72 EPS (reported) -0.05-0.02-0.01 0.22 0.50 0.37 0.53 0.72 Cash flow from operations 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.2 Free cash flow 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.0 Enterprise value (EV) 169 198 974 4,112 3,220 3,030 2,908 2,664 Book value (BV) 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 2.2 3.4 3.8 4.3 Book value (excl. goodwill) 0.6 0.6 nm nm 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.5 Dividend 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.20 Dividend yield 0.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.4% 1.0% 1.6% 2.0% 2.5% Share data (SEK) 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e End year price 0.58 0.81 2.50.2 8.85 8. 8. 8. Price year high 1.05 0.82 2.54.2.4.0 na na Price year low 0.57 0.52 0.81 2.38 8.56 6.81 na na No of shares (fully diluted, millions) 219 219 263 283 287 287 287 287 No of shares (average, millons) 219 219 241 273 286 270 287 287 Valuation 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e EV/Sales 0.7 0.9 2.1 3.9 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.5 EV/EBITDA 4.6 6.4 19.5 25.4 12.6 8.6 7.2 5.8 EV/EBIT nm nm nm 31.2 20.3.6 11.2 8.2 P/E (adjusted, end of period) nm nm nm nm 17.8 20.8.2 11.4 P/E (adjusted, high) nm nm nm nm 28.9 25.6 na na P/E (adjusted, low) nm nm nm.6 17.2 17.4 na na P/E nm nm nm nm 17.8 21.8.2 11.4 P/BV 0.53 0.74 2.50 8.65 3.97 2.41 2.16 1.88 P/BV (excl. goodwill) 0.90 1.30 nm nm 168.06.87 8.88 5.53 FCF-yield 12.0% 17.8% 6.9% 2.4% 0.1% 5.0% 6.8% 12.4% Growth 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e Net sales 6.0% 1.3% 3.9% 123.4% 39.2% 13.3% -1.9% 11.0% EBITDA 42.5% -.6% 60.4% 224.2% 58.6% 37.1%.9% 13.0% EBIT -17.0% nm nm nm 20.4% 22.8% 33.1% 25.6% Pre tax profit (recurring) nm nm nm nm 78.3% -20.1% 36.6% 33.9% EPS nm nm nm nm 121.2% -24.8% 43.0% 33.9% EPS (recurring) nm nm nm nm 121.2% -21.3% 36.6% 33.9% P&L Drivers 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e Gross margin nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm EBITDA margin 16.2% 13.5%.6%.4% 17.6% 21.3% 24.9% 25.3% EBIT margin 0.4% -0.5% 3.0% 12.6%.9% 11.8% 16.0% 18.1% Pre tax margin -4.4% -2.0% -2.3% 8.6% 12.7% 8.3% 13.1%.8% Net margin -4.4% -2.2% -0.5% 5.9% 9.8% 6.1% 9.5% 11.4% Net margin (recurring) -4.4% -2.2% -0.5% 5.9% 9.8% 6.4% 9.5% 11.4% Cash flow drivers 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e D+A / Sales.9%.0% 7.6% 2.9% 6.7% 9.5% 8.9% 7.3% Capex / Sales 3.7% 1.6% 2.2% 1.6% 11.0% 4.5% 2.5% 2.5% Working capital / Sales 18.1% 17.7% -4.6% -2.0% -5.0% 1.1% 7.3% 6.6% Tax rate 0.2% nm 79.2% 31.7% 23.2% 26.6% 28.0% 28.0% Capital Efficiency 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e FCF/Sales 6.8% 13.8% 9.6% 9.3% 0.1% 7.1% 9.8% 16.1% ROA -1.9% -1.0% -0.1% 8.4% 6.5% 7.2%.9%.2% ROCE -1.9% -1.2% -0.2% 13.6% 11.1% 9.9% 13.7% 17.6% ROIC 0.5% -0.6% 8.9% 113.7% 41.6% 25.6% 31.2% 41.4% ROE -3.8% -2.1% -0.9% 16.8% 25.7% 12.6%.9% 17.6% ROE (recurring) -3.8% -2.1% -0.9% 16.8% 25.7% 13.2%.9% 17.6% Balance sheet (SEKm) 20 2011 2012 2013 20 20e 2016e 2017e Net debt 41.8 19.4 317 82.9 682 692 570 327 Capital employed 299 282 676 1,001 1,703 1,897 1,938 1,823 Invested capital 183 7 9 72.8 689 834 828 745 Net debt/equity ratio 17.3% 8.1% 121.0% 17.8% 6.7% 71.4% 52.6% 26.3% Net debt/ebitda ratio 1.13 0.62 6.36 0.51 2.66 1.97 1.41 0.72 Equity ratio 72.5% 73.4% 28.3% 34.3% 27.4% 39.3% 45.0% 53.4% Net interest cover neg. neg. neg. 9.8 3.7 3.6 5.7 8.2 August 21, 20 Please see importantdisclosures at the end of thisdocument Page 7 of 9
Relative valuation Price Market cap EV/Sales EV/EBIT P/E (recurring) Peer group 1 (Local) (SEKm) 20 2016 2017 20 2016 2017 20 2016 2017 AF 116.25 SEK 8,766 1.07 0.98 0.94 12.3 11.1.2.8 13.6 12.7 Bureau Veritas SA 20.48 EUR 86,165 2.29 2.16 2.00.7 13.6 12.3 19.8 18.5 17.1 Intertek Group 2,580 GBP 55,443 2.19 2.07 1.92.1 13.2 12.0 19.1 18.2 16.6 Pöyry 3.83 EUR 2,176 0.45 0.43 0.43 28.8 13.7 12.4 nm 22.3 17.4 Rejlers 95.50 SEK 1,057 0.67 0.59 0.54 12.7 8.6 7.7 16.6 11.9.5 SGS SA 1,735 CHF 119,694 2.52 2.44 2.31.8.1.0 21.6 20.2 18.8 Sweco 116.00 SEK 9,579 1.21 1.07 0.98.3 12.1.3 16.8.6 13.3 Aggr 282,882 1.48 1.39 1.30 16.1 12.5 11.3 18.1 17.0.2 Median 9,579 1.21 1.07 0.98.3 13.2 12.0 19.1 18.2 16.6 Opus Group (Swb. est.) 8. 2337.87 1.83 1.79 1.48.6 11.2 8.2 20.8.2 11.4 Opus Group (Consensus est.) 1.75 1.55 1.39 21.3 13.8.9 24.0 18.1.6 August 21, 20 Please see importantdisclosures at the end of thisdocument Page 8 of 9
Relative performance Price Market cap Absolute vs. OMXSPI vs. SX9500PI Peer group 1 (Local) (SEKm) 1m 3m 1y 1m 3m 1y 1m 3m 1y AF 116.25 SEK 8,521-6.3% 2.6% 3.8% 0.1% 9.0% -9.2% 3.5% 13.6% 0.3% Bureau Veritas SA 20.48 EUR 86,165-3.2% -1.1% 7.2% 3.3% 5.1% -6.2% 6.9% 9.5% 3.7% Intertek Group 2,580 GBP 55,443 6.4% 0.4% 5.5% 13.5% 6.6% -7.7% 17.4% 11.1% 2.0% Pöyry 3.83 EUR 2,8 3.7% -1.6% 11.3%.6% 4.5% -2.6%.4% 8.9% 7.6% Rejlers 95.50 SEK 1,030-5.4% -12.4% 1.3% 0.9% -7.0% -11.4% 4.4% -3.0% -2.0% SGS SA 1,735 CHF 119,694-5.2% -6.8% -0.6% 1.2% -1.0% -13.1% 4.7% 3.2% -3.9% Sweco 116.00 SEK 9,373-4.1% 0.9% 11.8% 2.3% 7.1% -2.2% 5.8% 11.7% 8.1% Opus Group 8.SEK 2,201-6.9% - 17.7% - 39.9% - 0.6% - 12.6% - 47.4% 2.8% - 8.9% - 41.9% Technology (SX9000PI) -9.4% -9.7% 3.4% -3.3% -4.1% -9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Technology (SX9500PI) -9.4% -9.7% 3.4% -3.3% -4.1% -9.5% - - - Company vs. peers (SEK) Company vs. benchmarks (SEK) 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 18 16 12 8 6 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Opus Group Opus Peer1 Opus Group OMXSPI Technology (SX9500PI) August 21, 20 Please see importantdisclosures at the end of thisdocument Page 9 of 9