Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu poll@eagleton.rutgers.edu 848-932-8940 Fax: 732-932-6778 THURSDAY MAY 17, 2018 CONTACT: Dr. Ashley Koning, Director Office: 848-932-8940 Cell: 908-872-1186 akoning@rutgers.edu Release available at: http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/nj-murphy-menendez-booker-may2018. Find all releases at http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu. Follow the on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/rutgerseagletonpoll and Twitter @EagletonPoll. POSITIVITY ABOUT STATE S DIRECTION CONTINUES TO GROW UNDER MURPHY ADMINISTRATION; GOV. STARTS OUT SOLID, BOOKER CONTINUES TO SHINE AS MENENDEZ S RATINGS REMAIN STEADY NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. With the Murphy administration well underway, New Jerseyans are now split over the direction of the state, as more feel better than they have in recent years about where New Jersey is headed. Gov. Phil Murphy himself remains an unknown to a sizeable segment of the public, but initial impressions of the job he is doing are positive: 46 percent approve of his job as governor thus far, 29 percent disapprove, and the remaining quarter offer no assessment. U.S. Sen. Cory Booker continues to shine as the most popular public official in the state, while U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez s ratings remain lackluster. These are some of the main findings from the latest. For the first time since March 2014, residents are divided over the direction in which the Garden State is headed: 45 percent think the state is going in the right direction, while 48 percent feel it is off on the wrong track. This division is a dramatic improvement after an increasingly pessimistic outlook during Gov. Chris Christie s last two years in office, which resulted in an all-time low for the state s direction right before the end of his tenure. Positivity about the state has increased by double digits 1
since November alone, when those saying the state was off on the wrong track outnumbered those saying it was headed in the right direction by a two-to-one margin 60 to 30 percent. Resident s views on the state are certainly more positive than they have been in recent years, but the degree to which they have improved varies across partisan lines, said Ashley Koning, assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP) at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. With a Democratic governor in the State House, two thirds of Democrats now have a positive outlook on New Jersey, up 26 points since last November. Independents are much more skeptical, but positivity has grown by double digits among them as well. Three-quarters of Republicans feel just the opposite, though even among this group, positivity has ticked up 5 points since Murphy s November victory. Cory Booker remains the most popular political figure statewide. More approve than disapprove of the job he is doing as a U.S. Senator by a margin of 52 to 27 percent. Around the same number (46 percent) hold a positive impression of him, while 25 percent are negative and the rest say they do not have enough information to offer an assessment or are ambivalent. New Jerseyans remain uninspired by their other Democratic U.S. Senator, Robert Menendez, whose federal corruption trial last year ended in a hung jury. Slightly more disapprove than approve of the job Menendez is doing by a margin of 37 to 33 2
percent, with a large number either undecided or not having an opinion. Just 22 percent say they have a positive impression of him; far more are negative (35 percent) or say they are not sure (42 percent). Menendez s ratings have never reached the height of Booker s, and a large number continue to be almost as ambivalent toward the senior senator as when he first took office in 2006, said Koning. Time will tell how these lackluster ratings play out for Menendez in his reelection year, where he may face a well-financed challenger in pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin. Statewide, favorable impressions of Phil Murphy outnumber negative ones by a margin of 36 to 24 percent, with 28 percent not having formed an opinion and another 12 percent saying they had not heard of their new governor who took office in January. At this point, opinions of Murphy are heavily conditioned by partisanship: Democrats are largely favorable (54 percent to 5 percent), while Republicans are mostly unfavorable (52 percent to 17 percent), and Independents are split. Gov. Murphy starts out in office with favorability ratings akin to Gov. Christine Whitman s, yet lower than governors Jim McGreevey, Jon Corzine, and Christie at the starts of their first terms, said Koning. Much like Whitman, and especially given the low visibility of this year s race and low voter turnout, a large number of New Jerseyans are still undecided on Murphy, giving his ratings plenty of room to move up or down as he takes action on the budget and other policies. 3
Seven in 10 have no opinion of Democratic State Senate President Steve Sweeney, who has often been at odds with the governor on some policy initiatives and appointments. Formed opinion is split 14 percent favorable to 17 percent unfavorable. Interestingly, more Republicans (21 percent) currently have a favorable opinion of Sweeney than Democrats (14 percent). Results are from a statewide poll of 704 adults contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from April 26 to May 4, 2018. The sample has a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Interviews were done in English and, when requested, Spanish. # # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES START ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 4
Questions and Tables The questions covered in this release are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey adults; all percentages are of weighted results. Interpret groups with samples sizes under 100 with caution. Q. First, I'd like to ask you about some people. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. If you do not know the name, just say so. First: [RANDOMIZE ORDER] Phil Murphy Cory Booker Robert Menendez Steve Sweeney Favorable 36% 46% 22% 14% Unfavorable 24% 25% 35% 17% No opinion 28% 18% 27% 33% Don t know person (vol) 12% 11% 15% 36% Unwght N= 704 704 704 702 Phil Murphy Favorable 54% 30% 17% 33% 40% 34% 40% 41% 34% 35% 35% 47% 41% 43% 24% 22% Unfavorable 5% 26% 52% 29% 19% 31% 12% 12% 24% 31% 29% 16% 18% 32% 19% 38% No opinion 23% 35% 21% 29% 26% 25% 31% 32% 25% 27% 25% 25% 34% 13% 31% 25% Don t know person (vol) 17% 9% 10% 8% 16% 9% 18% 15% 18% 6% 11% 11% 7% 11% 26% 15% Unwght N= 260 283 140 354 350 455 222 172 134 218 180 97 256 102 105 144 Cory Booker Favorable 63% 41% 24% 39% 52% 42% 50% 49% 41% 41% 54% 61% 50% 46% 32% 34% Unfavorable 10% 23% 55% 31% 19% 31% 16% 11% 22% 39% 28% 17% 22% 29% 20% 37% No opinion 15% 27% 9% 22% 15% 17% 20% 22% 21% 15% 14% 16% 20% 20% 21% 15% Don t know person (vol) 12% 10% 12% 8% 14% 10% 14% 18% 15% 5% 4% 6% 8% 5% 27% 14% Unwght N= 260 283 140 354 350 455 222 172 134 218 180 97 256 102 105 144 5
Robert Menendez 6 Favorable 30% 16% 22% 22% 23% 22% 25% 19% 17% 22% 35% 29% 23% 21% 19% 21% Unfavorable 24% 38% 50% 40% 31% 44% 23% 18% 38% 49% 36% 27% 35% 44% 27% 43% No opinion 29% 30% 16% 27% 27% 23% 31% 37% 28% 21% 20% 28% 31% 26% 24% 23% Don t know person (vol) 16% 16% 12% 11% 19% 11% 22% 27% 17% 7% 9% 17% 12% 10% 30% 14% Unwght N= 260 283 140 354 350 455 222 172 134 218 180 97 256 102 105 144 Steve Sweeney Favorable 14% 11% 21% 17% 12% 17% 11% 11% 9% 13% 27% 14% 13% 13% 18% 16% Unfavorable 13% 21% 17% 19% 15% 20% 13% 11% 18% 25% 12% 8% 16% 21% 16% 25% No opinion 33% 36% 26% 33% 33% 32% 34% 34% 38% 30% 29% 42% 32% 35% 27% 30% Don t know person (vol) 39% 32% 35% 31% 41% 32% 42% 43% 35% 33% 32% 36% 40% 31% 39% 29% Unwght N= 260 282 139 354 348 453 222 172 134 217 179 97 255 102 104 144 Q. And overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor? Approve 46% Disapprove 29% Don't know 25% Unwght N= 690 Approve 62% 42% 26% 44% 47% 44% 50% 58% 42% 43% 38% 57% 52% 46% 39% 32% Disapprove 14% 30% 56% 34% 25% 34% 21% 15% 34% 37% 33% 18% 23% 35% 34% 42% Don't know 24% 28% 18% 21% 28% 21% 28% 27% 24% 20% 29% 25% 25% 19% 27% 26% Unwght N= 254 277 140 345 345 451 212 168 128 217 177 93 251 99 104 143
Q. And overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Cory Booker is handling his job as U.S. Senator? Approve 52% Disapprove 27% Don't know 21% Unwght N= 698 Approve 70% 50% 24% 46% 58% 50% 55% 54% 52% 50% 53% 74% 56% 52% 41% 36% Disapprove 11% 26% 58% 37% 18% 32% 20% 17% 25% 35% 31% 12% 24% 32% 27% 41% Don't know 19% 25% 17% 17% 24% 18% 25% 28% 23% 14% 16% 14% 20% 16% 32% 23% Unwght N= 259 280 138 351 347 452 219 172 129 217 180 96 254 100 104 144 Q. And overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as U.S. Senator? Approve 33% Disapprove 37% Don't know 30% Unwght N= 692 Approve 39% 30% 30% 32% 33% 31% 37% 31% 31% 29% 41% 40% 33% 28% 33% 29% Disapprove 26% 42% 48% 45% 30% 43% 29% 24% 38% 49% 37% 30% 36% 42% 29% 48% Don't know 35% 28% 23% 23% 37% 26% 34% 44% 30% 22% 22% 30% 31% 29% 39% 23% Unwght N= 256 280 138 347 345 450 216 169 130 215 178 96 252 99 103 142 7
Q. In general, would you say the state of New Jersey is currently going in the right direction, or has it gone off on the wrong track? Right direction 45% Wrong track 48% Don't know 7% Unwght N= 701 Right direction 67% 35% 25% 40% 49% 39% 53% 58% 42% 36% 42% 65% 48% 35% 36% 35% Wrong track 26% 56% 73% 56% 41% 56% 36% 34% 51% 60% 49% 32% 43% 56% 54% 62% Don't know 7% 10% 2% 3% 10% 5% 11% 8% 7% 4% 9% 2% 9% 9% 10% 4% Unwght N= 259 283 138 352 349 453 221 171 134 217 179 96 255 102 105 143 8
The was conducted by telephone using live callers April 26 to May 4, 2018 with a scientifically selected random sample of 704 New Jersey adults, 18 or older. Persons without a telephone could not be included in the random selection process. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult male or female currently available. If the named gender is not available, the youngest adult of the other gender is interviewed. The poll was available in Spanish for respondents who requested it. This telephone poll included 315 landline and 389 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: Cell Only: 31% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 24% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 42% Landline Only: 3% The data were weighted to be representative of New Jersey adults. The weighting balanced sample demographics to population parameters. The sample is balanced to match parameters for sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and phone use. The sex, age, education and race/ethnicity parameters were derived from 2016 American Community Survey PUMS data. The region parameter was derived from 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates based on total population. The phone use parameter derived from estimates provided by the National Health Interview Survey Early Release Program. Weighting was done in two stages. The first stage of weighting corrected for different probabilities of selection associated with the number of adults in each household and each respondent s telephone usage patterns. This weighting also adjusts for the overlapping landline and cell sample frames and the relative sizes of each frame and each sample. The second stage of weighting balanced sample demographics to match target population parameters. Weights were trimmed at the 3 rd and 97 th percentile to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. The use of these weights in statistical analysis ensures that the demographic characteristics of the sample closely approximate the demographic characteristics of the target population. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 704 New Jersey adults is +/-3.7 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The design effect is 1.37, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 4.3 percentage points. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey adults in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 45.7 and 54.3 percent (50 +/- 4.3) if all New Jersey adults had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects. This was fielded by Braun Research, Inc. with sample from Survey Sampling International (SSI). The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (ECPIP). Dr. Cliff Zukin, Professor Emeritus of Political Science and Public Policy and Senior Survey Advisor to ECPIP, assisted with this questionnaire and analysis. William Young assisted with analysis and preparation of this report. The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Full questionnaires are available on request, and can also be accessed through our archives at eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu. For more information, please contact poll@eagleton.rutgers.edu. Weighted Sample Characteristics 704 New Jersey Adults Male 48% Democrat 37% 18-34 26% HS or Less 33% White 58% Female 52% Independent 42% 35-49 26% Some College 28% Black 12% Republican 21% 50-64 27% College Grad 22% Hispanic 19% 65+ 20% Grad Work 17% Other 11% 9