El Dorado Couty: CED Ecoomic Outlook Placerville, CA December, Robert Eyler, Ph.D. Chair, Ecoomics Departmet Director, Ecoomic Developmet ad Iovatio Accelerator Sooma State Uiversity eyler@sooma.edu
Global issues Itroductio What effects do the global ecoomy have o El Dorado Couty? Natioal issues We are i recovery: for how log? State issues Califoria ecoomy forecast a driver of El Dorado Couty Local issues What will ultimately drive El Dorado Couty s ecoomy? What are the possibilities?
The Elemets of Recovery Exitig a deleveragig recessio Reductio of leverage use reduced spedig Slow recovery a fuctio of Labor market tetativeess Fiacial market ueasiess Ucertaity that policies have worked Local ad state govermets Prepare for services shift to o profits ad private sector Will the attractiveess of Califoria as a place to do busiess chage? 3
Iteratioal The rise of BRIICs coutries to cotiue Idoesia ow aother I i BRIICs The Euro Area: the austerity lab Are the Europeas ad British right? Will Irelad s fate spell Europe s? What this meas Califoria ow faces heighteed competitio for tourism, techology ad talet Demad for commodities risig: good for El Dorado Couty? 4
Domestic Natioal Ecoomy Cotiued slow movemet at atioal level Spedig lab ad barely cosiderig austerity Labor markets ot yet recovered i tred Where ad what are the ew idustries? Need to be cocered with a double dip? Expaded fiscal stimulus created GDP Job creatio through iovatio, ot through cosumptio Where did the ARRA moey go? Ledig markets: demad or supply? Iflatio i wait for these fuds to flow 5
Ja.6.4...6.4. Excess Reserves at U.S. Baks (Loaable Fuds Not Let), $ Ja 7 Dec 6 Ja 74 Ja 75 Ja 76 Ja 77 Ja 7 Ja 7 Ja Ja Ja Ja 3 Ja 4 Ja 5 Ja 6 Ja 7 Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja 3 Ja 4 Ja 5 Ja 6 Ja 7 Ja Moth Source: Federal Reserve Board Ja 7 Ja 73 Ja 7 Ja 7 Billios of $
Ja- May- 6 4 6 4 Excess Reserves at U.S. Baks (Loaable Fuds Not Let), $ Ja - Aug 7 Ja- May- Sep- Ja- May- Sep- Ja-3 May-3 Sep-3 Ja-4 May-4 Sep-4 Ja-5 May-5 Sep-5 Ja-6 May-6 Sep-6 Ja-7 May-7 Sep-7 Moth Source: Federal Reserve Board Sep- May- Ja- Billios of $
Excess Reserves at U.S. Baks (Loaable Fuds Not Let), $ Ja Preset Billios of $ 6 4 Ja Mar May Jul Sep Nov Ja Mar May Jul Sep Nov Ja Mar May Jul Sep Moth Source: Federal Reserve Board
4 Excess Reserves at U.S. Baks (Loaable Fuds Not Let), $ Ja 7 Preset $ f o s 6 ilio B 4 7 Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja 3 Ja 4 Ja Moth 5 Ja 6 Ja 7 Ja Ja Ja Ja Source: Federal Reserve Board
Other Macro Stats to Watch
Trade Balace, US with Chia, 5 Preset, Millios 5$ Sources: BEA ad CREA at SSU 3 5 5 5 5 5 : 6 :3 7 :5 :7 : : : 3 :3 4 :5 5 :7 6 : 7 : : :3 :5 :7 3 : 4 : 6 : 7 :3 :5 :7 : M ilio s 5 $ Moth
S&P 5 Idex, Preset 6 4 x e d I 5 P S & 6 4 3 4 5 6 7 3 4 5 6 7 Year Sources: Reuters ad CREA at SSU
Califoria Labor Markets Califoria cotiues to lag atioal employmet Where are the ew idustries? Electios do little to chage the basics Prisos, educatio, social services the foci Caot rely o curret model CalPers liability awaits! Do ot expect it, but we eed reform Mix of higher taxes, less spedig comig 3
4 Uemploymet Rates: US & CA, Seasoally Adjusted US CA ) (% a te R t e y m 6 lo p m e U4 3 4 5 6 7 Year 4
El Dorado Couty Stats Update Demography Agig: older populatio drive by retirees Ethicity: cotiuig to become more Latio Health care eeds to rise Govermet services a issue with cotractig budgets Ecoomy Risig icomes, lower taxable sales Tourism idustries cotiue to wae: likely to see some icrease i What ca El Dorado Couty do log term?
Populatio Aual Percet Chage (Three-Year Average) 3.5% 3.%.5%.%.5%.%.5%.% Califoria El Dorado Couty 4 6 4 6 6
4,5 4, 3,5 3,,5,,5, 5 Compoets of Populatio Chage 3 4 5 6 7 Created by: Ceter for Ecoomic Developmet, Ca liforia Sta te Uiversity, Chico Natural Icrease Net Migra tio Total Chage 7
El Dorado Couty Age Profile, vs. 4, 35, 3, 5,, 5,, 5, 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 +
Asia % El Dorado Couty Ethicity Profile, Black % America Idia % Other % Hispaic % White 5%
Asia.% El Dorado Couty Ethicity Profile, Black.4% America Idia.7% Other.% Hispaic.% White 3.%
35% 3% 5% % 5% % 5% % Populatio by Educatioal Attaimet (Percet of Total) Less tha th grade th to th grade, o diploma High school graduate, GED, or alterative Some college, o degree Associate's degree El Dorado Couty Califoria Bachelor's degree Graduate or professioal degree
Couty Political Party Membership, Democratic 3.6 % Other party 5. % Declie to affiliate.7 % Republica 44. %
Califoria Political Party Membership, Other party 4.5 % Declie to affiliate. % Democratic 44.5 % Republica 3. % 3
4.%.% 4.% 6.%.%.% 3 4 5 6 7 3 4 5 6 7 Created by: Ceter for Ecoomic Developmet, Califoria State Uiversity, Chico Real-Dollar Persoal Icome Aual Percet Chage (Three-Year Average) Califoria El Dorado Couty
5-4.% -3.% -.% -.%.%.%.% 3 4 5 6 7 3 4 5 6 7 Created by: Ceter for Ecoomic Developmet, Califoria State Uiversity, Chico Real-Dollar Per Capita Icome Aual Percet Chage (Three-Year Average) Califoria El Dorado Couty
.% 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.%.%.%.% -.% Compoets of Total Persoal Icome (Percet of Total), El Dorado Couty Califoria Created by: Ceter for Ecoomic Developmet, Califoria State Uiversity, Chico 6
El Dorado Couty Govermet Trasfer Paymets, Medical paymets 3.7% Icome maiteace 6.4% Uemp. Isurace 3.% Veteras' beefits.6% Federal Educatio.3% Other paymets to idividuals.% No profits 3.3% Busiess paymets.% SSI paymets 44.5% 7
Media Household Icome, - El Dorado Couty Ca liforia $,. $7,. $6,. $5,. $4,. $3,. $,. $,. $. 3 4 5 6 7
Poverty Rates, - El Dorado Couty Califoria 6.% 4.%.%.%.% 6.% 4.%.%.% 3 4 5 6 7
The Drivers of Chage Job growth + busiess growth Need there to be opportuities Need to moitor how they affect local ecoomies ad livig space Govermet cooperatio that is overt for busiess Need to have local govermet recogize ecoomics as a major factor Most govermets challeged here: wealth meets demography meets geography 3
Real Estate Regioal ad slow movig El Dorado Couty as a log term residetial ivestmet: for what type of residet? Commercial Costructio of ew commercial property likely to be project specific rather tha aticipatory $.4 trillio to face refiace or foreclosure i ext 3 years Ecoomic developmet must lik commercial real estate to busiess opportuities Need to have a regioal developmet pla Need to thik beyod city ad couty borders
The Politics of Ecoomic Growth Cost of busiesses leavig Regulatory streamliig Prioritize how ay fudig is focused Must thik as ivestmet ot cost recovery Must break the old way of lookig at how govermet ad busiess work together Ati busiess stace a troublig, vocal miority Need to thik about shaped growth 3
Where are we headed? Recessio ito mid cocerig labor markets Need to attack i tech ad foreig markets before they coverge State ecoomy will lag Electios will ot chage the fudametal issues Recovery has started, eeds to have opportuities seized Recogize regioal coectios ad ecoomies Ecoomic developmet a eed ow ad ito the future How does El Dorado Couty defie ecoomic developmet Is the political will available for ecoomic growth by ay defiitio? 33