COMCEC Trade OUTLOOK 2015 Trade Working Group 6 th Meeting September 17, 2015 Ankara, Turkey
OUTLINE Recent Trends in Trade Between the OIC Member States and the World Recent Trends in Intra-OIC Trade
TRADE Between the OIC and the WORLD
Total OIC exports fell by 3.3 per cent in 2014 Source: : IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Libya, Saudi Arabia, Algeria and UAE have the largest negative impact on the OIC exports (2014) Source: : IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Main Factors Accounting For The Weakness Of Total OIC Exports In 2014 The slow pace of world demand growth Collapse in oil prices Falling other commodity prices Ongoing political instability in the Middle East
World trade growth remained sluggish in 2014 Source: WTO Database
Growth performance was especially weak in Emerging Economies Figure : Real Growth (%) 2013 2014 World Output 3.4 3.4 Advanced Countries 1.4 1.8 United States 2.2 2.4 Euro Area -0.5 0.9 Japan 1.6-0.1 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 5.0 4.6 Russia 1.3 0.6 China 7.8 7.4 India 6.9 7.2 Middle East and North Africa 2.3 2.4 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, May 2015 Update
(US $/b) Oil prices (Brent) fell from an average of 111 ($/pb) in the last three years to 48($/pb) in January 2015 Source: IMF Commodity Price Statistics
Both demand side and supply side factors played a role in the collapse in oil prices Supply Side Factors Demand Side Factors Increasing Non-OPEC Oil Supply Demand Weakness OPEC s Policy Shift Increasing Energy Efficiency Recovery of Production in Iraq Source: Authors, based on IMF World Economic Outlook data
Non-fuel Commodity Prices Continued to Decline in 2014 Source: IMF Database
Prices of Selected Commodities Exported by the OIC Members 2005=100 Source: IMF Database
The share of OIC countries in global exports declined to 11.5 per cent in 2014 Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Top performers in total OIC exports in 2014 Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
High country concentration in total OIC exports Figure: Major Destinations for OIC Exports (Billion $) Share % Countries 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 China 245 257 249 10.0 10.7 10.8 Japan 246 233 220 10.0 9.7 9.5 India 201 193 187 8.2 8.0 8.1 United States 185 164 150 7.5 6.8 6.5 Korea 157 151 146 6.4 6.3 6.3 Taiwan 135 139 133 5.5 5.8 5.7 Singapore 100 97 98 4.1 4.0 4.2 Italy 96 84 75 3.9 3.5 3.2 France 61 60 59 2.5 2.5 2.5 Netherlands 60 57 58 2.4 2.4 2.5 European Union EU (28) 460 439 424 18.7 18.3 18.3 Total of Top Ten Countries (2) 1,486 1,435 1,373 60.6 59.7 59.4 Source: UNCTADSTAT
Dominance of mineral fuels and oils in total OIC exports OIC Exports to World - Top 10 Items (2014, Billion $) Source:ITC Trademap
Share of Petroleum in Total Exports, 2014 (%) Source: UN Comtrade
Share of Commodities in Total Exports, 2014 (%) Source: UN Comtrade (*) Includes SITC Rev 3 sectors 26, 65 and 84
Malaysia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Indonesia are the largest manufactured goods exporters of OIC Per cent Source: UNCTADSTAT
43 per cent of total OIC manufactured goods exports consist of high-skill and technology-intensive manufactures Figure: OIC Exports by Degree of Manufacturing, 2014 Source: UNCTADSTAT
TOTAL OIC IMPORTS
Total OIC imports dominated by the leading exporters in 2014 (Billion $) Source:IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Total OIC imports originated mainly from developed countries (Billion $) Share % Countries 2012 2013 2014 2012 2013 2014 China 236 264 293 12.9 13.8 15.3 United States 128 134 131 7.0 7.0 6.8 India 90 92 101 5.0 4.8 5.3 Germany 92 98 97 5.0 5.2 5.1 Japan 87 80 77 4.8 4.2 4.0 Singapore 73 74 71 4.0 3.9 3.7 Korea 69 68 70 3.8 3.5 3.6 Russian Federation 71 70 67 3.9 3.7 3.5 Italy 62 66 66 3.4 3.5 3.4 France 63 64 64 3.4 3.3 3.3 European Union EU (28) 415 451 447 22.7 23.6 23.3 Total of Top Ten Countries (2) 971 1,011 1,038 53.2 53.0 54.0 Source: UNCTADSTAT
Product diversification of total OIC imports was higher (2014, billion $) Source: ITC
INTRA-OIC TRADE
Share of intra-oic trade peaked at 18.8 per cent in 2014 Source:IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Major players in intra OIC trade in 2014 (Billion $) Source:SESRIC Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics
Intra-OIC exports concentrated on a few commoditites (Billion $) Source: ITC Trademap
20 per cent intra-oic trade target was surpassed by 28 Member States in 2014 Member States Having the Biggest Intra-OIC Trade Share (%) Member States Having the Lowest Intra-OIC Trade Share (%) IMF: Direction of Trade Statistics
Making Cooperation Work COMCEC STRATEGY For Building an Interdependent Islamic World Thank You Trade Working Group Meeting September 17, 2015 Ankara, Turkey