Click to edit Master title style International Trade and Investment Agbiz Media Day 25 November 2016 11/25/2016 1
Outline Click to edit Master title style Half year 2016 Agricultural Export Performance Rebates: South Africa s poultry imports from USA The SACU(M) Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) SACU-MERCOSUR Agreement Outlook for 2017 11/25/2016 2
Click Agricultural to edit Trade Master Performance title style Black Sea Americas Middle East Asia EU (28) Africa - 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 Exports (US$ billion) 2016 2015 11/25/2016 3
Click Agricultural to edit Trade Master Performance title style Black Sea +11% Americas Middle East -20% +8% Asia -2% EU (28) Africa +3% -12% - 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,0 Exports (US$ billion) 2016 2015 11/25/2016 4
volume (Tons) Price (Rand/Kg) Tariffs, rebates and trade remedies: Click to edit Master title style South Africa s bone-in poultry imports from the USA 8 000 Click to edit Master 6 906 text styles 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 R12,00 R10,00 R8,00 R6,00 3 000 2 000 1 000-2 299 2 398 1 467 1 238 807 645 393 239 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep R4,00 R2,00 R0,00 Volume (Tons) Price (R/KG) 11/25/2016 5
volume (Tons) Price (Rand/Kg) Tariffs, rebates and trade remedies: Click to edit Master title style South Africa s bone-in poultry imports from the USA 8 000 Click to edit Master 6 906 text styles 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 R12,00 R10,00 R8,00 R6,00 3 000 2 000 1 000-2 299 2 398 1 467 1 238 807 645 393 239 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep R4,00 R2,00 R0,00 Volume (Tons) Price (R/KG) 11/25/2016 6
Volume (tons) Tariffs, rebates and trade remedies: South Click to Africa s edit Master bone-in title poultry style imports from the USA 16 000 14 000 12 000 10 000 8 000 6 652 11 808 13 899 6 000 4 000 2 000-9 598 4 442 2 351 Q1 Q2 Q3 Actual Exports Unfilled Quota 11/25/2016 7
Click EU Economic to edit Master Partnership title style Agreement Agreement Click to edit was Master provisionally text styles implemented on 1 st November 2016. New Second market level access Wine quota increased to 110 million litres 50 million litres for bulk exports 77 million litres for bottled wine Sugar cane quota increased to 150,000 tons 50,000 tons of refined sugar 100,000 tons of cane sugar for refining Tariff phase down for sweet oranges from 16 th Oct 31 st Nov over the next decade ensuring duty free market access by 2027 Pears of variety Nashi and apples other than cider apples subject to duty free window period 1 st May to 31 st June 11/25/2016 8
Click EU Economic to edit Master Partnership title style Agreement Poultry Reports received suggest that there has been an outbreak of Avian Flu in Denmark, Netherlands, Poland and other parts of Europe. However, this is only on wild flocks, which means an automatic ban cannot be implemented as yet. Avian Flu-related Bans have already been in place against France and recently introduced against Germany Minister Davies is expected to implement a safeguard that will translate into a 13,4% duty on poultry imports from the EU. SAPA argues that this will not be enough to avert the danger paused on unfairly priced imports from certain EU countries. 11/25/2016 9
Click Economic to edit Partnership Master title Agreement style Citrus Click to edit Master text styles CBS emergency measures on South African citrus into the EU will remain a critical issue in 2017 The citrus industry is incurring R1 billion per annum in compliance costs to manage CBS Emerging issues of False Coddling Moth will add to the cost burden and it is going to adversely affect competitiveness. Strategic diversification into Asia and the Far East will is expected as South Africa attempts to avoid high non-tariff barriers in the EU 11/25/2016 10
Click SACU-MERCOSUR to edit Master Agreement title style Agreement implemented on 21 st October 2016 after it was supposed to Click come into edit force Master on 1 text April styles 2016 Duty import Third reduction level on soybean oilcake A 1.65% reduction in the import duty on MERCOSUR-originating soya oilcake imports, after Fifth falling levelfrom 6.6% to 4.95%. The agreement will be implemented retroactively meaning that duties paid between 1 st April and 21 st October will have to be reimbursed by SARS. Quotas Meanwhile, quota allocations made for frozen beef cuts Paraguay and Uruguay (250 tons, each) Quota allocation for soybean Paraguay (10,000 tons) and Uruguay (6,000 tons) Quota allocation for Paraguay soybean (5,000 tons) and sunflower oil (4,000 tons) 11/25/2016 11
Click Outlook to edit for 2017 Master title style Click A recovery to edit of Master domestic text styles production will inevitably lead to a return to an Second increase level in agricultural exports, particularly maize. We do not expect that AGOA will be repealed by the Senate, but we can never be sure what the out-of-cycle review brings. Continued engagement for AGOA reciprocity will continue, in one form or the other. Exports to the EU will likely grow, supported by the new EPA market access for agricultural products. However, export growth will be threatened by emerging SPS restrictions for citrus (FCM issues). Brexit negotiations will likely commence, and this will add a bit of uncertainty. 11/25/2016 12
Click to edit Master title style Thank you www.agbiz.co.za 11/25/2016 13