Bank of Ireland Hotel Sector Briefing 29 th November 2018 Sarah Duignan Director, Client Relationships sduignan@str.com 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Global RevPAR % Change supply challenges continue in the ME EUR, Constant Currency, October 2018 YTD North America Central America +3.1% -1.3% +30.6% Europe +5.2% Northern Africa Middle East +24.8% -6.0% +5.2% Asia +3.1% Australia & Oceania +2.1% South America Southern Africa
Good demand growth across the world, except Central America Global Supply & Demand % Change, October 2018 YTD Supply Demand 5.0% 4.9% 3.9% 5.9% 3.6% 4.1% 2.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.1% 2.3% 1.2% 1.8% 2.2% -3.6% North America & Caribbean Central America South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia & Oceania
Europe - Muted supply growth lifts occupancy (and RevPAR) Supply, Demand, RevPAR % Change, Constant Currency, EUR. October YTD 2018 10% Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR % change 5% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
Europe continues to experience positive growth Europe Main KPIs, Constant Currency, EUR, October 2018 YTD 73.4% Occupancy +1.2% 113.64 ADR +4.0% 83.45 RevPAR +5.2%
Paris leading the European RevPAR and Dublin leads occupancy. Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, EUR, October 2018 YTD 85% 75% ADR RevPAR Occupancy EUR 250 EUR 200 65% 55% 45% 35% EUR 150 EUR 100 EUR 50 25% EUR 0
A mixed bag in Europe but mainly positive Europe RevPAR % Change, Local Currency, October 2018 YTD 4 18 Helsinki St. Petersburg Edinburgh Amsterdam Dublin 7 London Brussels Zurich Paris Madrid Barcelona Lisbon 7 4-1 2-7 6 13 17 Rome 3 6-1 6 7 5 Copenhagen -3 8-1 6 Berlin Prague 4 12 Vienna 78 Athens 53 Budapest Bucharest Belgrade Istanbul Warsaw Kiev Moscow
Ireland positive performance prevails 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
REGIONAL Ireland It s all about ADR EUR., October 2018 YTD. Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR & % chg. 74.6% Occupancy +0.9% 115.43 ADR +9.3% 86.16 RevPAR +10.3% 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Ireland Regional by class Luxury 110 & Upper Upscale 40 premiums EUR, October 2018 YTD. Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 78% 300 76% 250 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 200 150 100 50 64% Luxury Reg Upper Upscale Reg Upscale Reg Upper Midscale Reg Midscale Reg 0 Occ ADR RevPAR 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Ireland Regional by class ADR driving performance across all classes EUR October 2018 YTD Occupancy and ADR % Change 1.8% Occ ADR RevPAR 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% Luxury Reg Upper Upscale Reg Upscale Reg Upper Midscale Reg Midscale & Econ Reg
Key Irish Markets occupancy in excess of 70% across the board EUR, October 2018 YTD. Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR ADR RevPAR Occupancy 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
ADR % Chg Irish Markets Performance Cork remains the top mover EUR Occ and ADR % change October 2018 YTD 11 9 Galway Reg. Ireland Ireland Cork 7 5 Kilkenny Munster Regional Sligo Dublin Leinster Regional 3 1 Kerry -1-3 -5-5 -4-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 Occ % Chg 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Dublin rounding up the year in positive territory
Dublin RevPAR growth over 7% with 2 months to go EUR, Full Year 2008 to October 2018 YTD. Supply, Demand & RevPAR % chg 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Supply % change Demand % change RevPAR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD Oct 2018
Dublin strong occupancy base pushing ADR growth EUR, October 2018 YTD Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 85.4% 0.6% occupancy 147.18 +6.5% ADR 125.65 +7.1% RevPAR 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Dublin Submarkets City Centre commands a 60 premium EUR, October 2018 YTD. Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% ADR RevPAR Occupancy 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Dublin Submarkets Airport fastest growing (just!) EUR, RevPAR % chg. October 2018 YTD Dublin City Centre Dublin Airport Dublin Surroundings +7.4% +7.5% +6.0% 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Dublin by class - Lux & Upper Up 50 ADR premium, Upper only 10 EUR, October 2018 YTD. Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR 90% 300 88% 86% 84% 250 200 82% 150 80% 78% 76% 100 50 74% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale 0 ADR RevPAR Occ
Dublin by class Upper Midscale fastest growing class EUR. Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR % chg. October 2018 YTD. 10% ADR Occupancy RevPAR 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale
Day Count ADR ( ) Dublin Compression a 41% yield results in 45 higher ADR EUR, Compression Analysis Year End 2017 160 140 120 100 41% 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 80 60 40 20 0 <70 70-80 80-90 >=90 Occupancy (%) Day Count ADR ( )
Day Count ADR ( ) Dublin Compression analysis a 49% yield results in 53 higher ADR EUR, Compression Analysis October 2018 YTD. 160 180 140 120 100 80 60 40 49% -3% 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 20 0 0 <70 70-80 80-90 >=90 Occupancy (%) Day Count ADR ( )
Pipeline hotels, hotels, more hotels. 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Europe Pipeline, Top 10 October 2018 Report, Pipeline by Room Count Existing Pipeline Pipeline % Existing United Kingdom 21% Germany 15% Ireland 28% France 3% Russia 7% Turkey 4% Poland 15% Switzerland Netherlands 7% 6% Israel 14% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Thousands
Dublin is now at 23,005 bedrooms, with 3,696 in construction 2,682 expected to open between now and year end 2019
Upscale and Upper Midscale comprise over 60% of new openings Number of rooms opening between now and December 2019 Class Openings Active Pipeline 2018/2019 London Dublin Supply Openings & Active 2018/2019 Pipeline Project Count Room Count Luxury 0 0 Upper Upscale 3 700 Upscale 11 860 Upper Midscale 8 819 Midscale 4 84 Economy 2 219 Total 28 2,682
Capitalize on your own potential. 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Business-on-the-Books for Dublin for next 90 days as at 26 Nov 2018 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Andre Rieu Forward weekend demand and compression highly visible Six Nations Ireland v England 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
100% 90% Business-on-the-Books for Dublin for next 90 days Compared to last year and two years ago actuals 2018 2017 2016 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Pickup from last week for the next 28 days as at 26 Nov 2018 100% 90% 80% 7% 6% 6% 5% 70% 60% 14% 14% 15% 13% 9% 10% 9% 9% 6% 5% 50% 6% 7% 6% 5% 40% 4% 7% 2% 2% 30% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1% 20% 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Average Pickup for next 12 weeks as at 26 November 2018 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 8.7% Over the course of any given week a hotel will pick up 8.7% for the next week. 6.0% 5.0% 6.4% 5.9% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.4% 3.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
70% Business-on-the-Books for Dublin for next 12 months as at 05 Nov 2018 63% 60% 50% 40% 38% Following similar seasonal patterns as Historic occupancy Strong base being built for next summer season 30% 20% 22% 19% 25% 27% 31% 33% 28% 25% 28% 19% 10% 0% November December January February March April May June July August September October
Market Forecast what does the future hold?
2019 Hotel Forecast A largely positive picture Recovery Mode Performance on the rebound Hot Markets In high demand Minor Growing Pains Supply growth impact Steady Gains Stable performance & outlook Brussels, Paris, Cologne, Barcelona, Buenos Aires Amsterdam, Warsaw, Munich, Tokyo, Beijing, Madrid, Hong Kong, Singapore, Sydney Glasgow, Moscow, Edinburgh, Dublin, Manchester, Dubai, Birmingham, Leeds, Stuttgart, Hamburg, London, Heathrow, Frankfurt Sao Paolo, Hong Kong, Dusseldorf, Abu Dhabi, Sydney, Rome, Singapore, Athens, Budapest, Milan, Berlin, Gatwick, Zurich, Vienna, Prague, Beijing,
Dublin what does the future look like post supply increase EUR, Historic 2007-2017, Forecast 2018-2022 (Indexed to 2007) Dublin Demand Dublin Supply Dublin RevPAR 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 F 2019 F 2020 F 2021 F 2022 F 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
MARKET FORECAST Dublin expecting a small occupancy decline EUR, Forecasted - Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, GBP, 2018 and 2019 79.3% 2019 147 2019 117 2019 83.2% 2018 145 2018 120 2018 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
MARKET FORECAST Dublin bigger occupancy decline in 2019 EUR, Forecasted Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR % Chg. GBP, 2018 & 2019 6.4% 2018 1.6% 2019 ADR & Occupancy -3.2% 2019 0.2% 2018-4.7% 2019 6.6% 2018 2017 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Thank You! Sarah Duignan sduignan@str.com www.str.com 2017 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.