Friday, July 14, 2017 For Private Circulation Only MAJOR COMMODITIES Commodity Expiry High Low Close Change Commodity Expiry High Low Close ($) Change Gold Aug 27957 27812 27837-14 Gold (Oz) Aug 1223.60 1215.60 1217.30-1.80 Silver Sep 37080 36530 36590-378 Silver (Oz) Sep 15.96 15.66 15.69-0.20 Crude Oil Jul 2985 2903 2964 15 Crude Oil Aug 46.28 44.99 46.08 0.59 Natural Gas Jul 194.90 190.30 192.20-0.30 Natural Gas Aug 3.02 2.95 2.96-0.02 Copper Aug 385.25 380.50 380.85-2.40 Copper 3M 5930.00 5859.00 5864.50-39.00 Nickel Jul 597.80 589.50 591.50-0.90 Nickel 3M 9280.00 9155.00 9190.00-5.00 Aluminium Jul 124.60 121.65 123.40 2.20 Aluminium 3M 1943.00 1888.00 1923.50 34.50 Lead Jul 149.60 146.70 146.95-1.80 Lead 3M 2330.00 2285.00 2291.50-24.50 Zinc Jul 183.40 180.00 180.20-1.45 Zinc 3M 2846.50 2793.50 2798.50-21.00 News & Development No major fundamental developments.
Gold Gold retreated from earlier gains on Thursday as the U.S. dollar turned higher and global stocks gained on upbeat data, even as investors wagered that policy tightening in the United States would be glacial at best. Denting gold's safe-haven appeal, the MSCI world index hit a record high for the fourth time in less than a month as investors took Yellen's remarks as a green light for risk-taking. China posted stronger-than-expected June trade figures, bolstering the U.S. dollar, which advanced against a currency basket. The greenback earlier hit its lowest since last October after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen struck a less hawkish than expected tone in testimony before Congress on Wednesday. A stronger U.S. currency weighs on gold, making the dollar-priced commodity more expensive for non-u.s. investors. The U.S. economy is healthy enough for the Fed to raise interest rates, though low inflation and a low neutral rate could leave the central bank with diminished leeway, Yellen said on Wednesday. Technical Gold Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Aug Sell @ R1 27700 27800 27837 27950 28050 We expect gold prices to trade negative on the back of US interest rate outlook. Silver Silver fell 0.94 pct to $15.73 per ounce. Technical Silver Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Sep Sell @ R1 36100 36400 36590 36800 37100 We expect silver prices to trade negative on the back of US interest rate outlook. Page 2
Crude Oil Oil prices rose 1.3 percent on Thursday after much stronger demand in China overshadowed a downbeat report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that showed higher production by key OPEC exporters. Prices had responded only minimally to data Wednesday showing U.S. crude oil inventories dropped last week by the most in 10 months. Oil prices have dropped in recent weeks to levels not seen since the end of last year as investors lost faith in a deal between OPEC and non-opec producers to reduce output, while U.S. shale oil production has risen sharply. But there is evidence world oil demand is picking up, notably in the United States and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers. China imported 8.55 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in the first half of this year, up 13.8 percent from the same period in 2016, making it the world's biggest crude importer ahead of the United States. Rising demand is helping to drain a global fuel glut but rebalancing of the market is taking longer than anticipated. The IEA said the oil market could stay oversupplied for longer than expected due to rising production and limited output cuts by some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Oil inventories in industrialised nations remain high despite a modest drop in May. OECD stocks are still 266 million barrels above the five-year average, the IEA said. OPEC said on Wednesday the world would need only 32.2 million bpd of its crude next year, down 60,000 bpd from this year and about 400,000 bpd less than it pumped in June. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways on the back of profit booking after up move. Technical Crude Oil Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Jul Sideways 2900 2930 2964 3000 3030 Natural Gas We expect Natural gas prices to trade sideways on the back of profit booking after sharp up-move in prices. Technical Nat Gas Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Jul Sideways 188 190 192.2 195 198 \ Page 3
Base Metals Aluminium prices rose nearly 2 percent on Thursday, the biggest one-day increase in nearly three months, as concerns over potential supply curbs by top producer China sparked a rally. Talk that more capacity cuts were on the way in China fed into broader-based concerns over slowing output to push prices higher, analysts said. An industry association said last month that China will launch a crackdown to curb the illegal expansion of production capacity. Technical Jul/Aug* Strategy S2 S1 Close R1 R2 Copper* Sideways 377 379 380.8 383 385 Nickel Sideways 583 588 591.5 595 605 Alum Sideways 122 123 123.4 124 125 Lead Sell @ R1 145 146 146.9 148 149 Zinc Sell @ R1 178 179 180.2 181 182 We expect base metal prices likely to trade volatile on the back of mixed fundamentals. LME Inventories Copper Lead Zinc Aluminium Nickel Current Stock Change % Change 318225 158425 270225 1386100 375648-325 -200-3450 -6525-828 -0.10% -0.13% -1.26% -0.47% -0.22% Page 4
DATE TIME (IST) COUNTRY ECONOMIC DATA CONSENSUS PREVIOUS IMPACT Fri Jul 14 6:00pm USD CPI m/m 0.10% -0.10% High USD Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.10% High USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.20% -0.30% High USD Retail Sales m/m 0.20% -0.30% High For Further Assistance Contact: - 022-40934000 Ashish Shah Tejas Nikhar Devashish Srivastava AVP ashish.shah@sushilfinance.com Sr. Research Analyst tejas.nikhar@sushilfinance.com Research Analyst devashish.srivastava@sushilfinance.com WE / OUR CLIENTS / OUR RELATIVES MAY HAVE PERSONAL TRADING / INVESTMENT INTEREST IN THE STOCKS MENTIONED HERE IN. STATEMENT OF DISCLAIMER This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report cannot be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. Additional information with respect to any commodities referred to herein will be available on request. Sushil Global Commodities Pvt. Ltd. and its connected companies, and their respective Directors, Officers and employees, may, from time to time, have a long or short position in the commodities mentioned and may sell or buy such commodities. Sushil Global may act upon or make use of information contained herein prior to the publication thereof. This data sheet is for private circulation only. While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above, we claim no responsibility for its accuracy. We shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use thereof and the investors are requested to use the information contained herein at their own risk. Sushil Global Commodities Private Limited Member: NCDEX, FMC Regn.No. 00304 MCX, FMC Regn.No. 12240 Genius, 4 th Road, Khar (W), Mumbai 400 052. Tel.: 022-6698 0636 Fax: 022-6698 0606 E-mail: commodities@sushilfinance.com www.sushilfinance.com Page 5