European & UK Hotel Performance Trend Analysis by STR Global Naureen Ahmed Manager, Marketing & Analysis RMAPI Conference, London 7 th November 2013
Agenda Global Snapshot Europe Overview UK Focus Outlook
Our participants As of September 2013 +47,000 hotels +6.4m rooms +30,000 hotels +3.9 m rooms +8,000 hotels +1,1 m rooms +400 hotels +120,000 rooms +800 hotels +160,000 rooms +600 hotels +100,000 rooms +5,000 hotels +1 m rooms
Global performance RevPAR % Chg YTD September 2013 (USD) + 0.6% + 5.4% - 4.1% +5.1%
RevPAR % Chg YE 11 +5.3% Europe +4.4% YE 12 YTD 13 +0.6%
Europe Room Supply & Demand %Chg 12 months moving average YE 2005 to September 2013 8% Nov 10 6.8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Jun 12 2.1% Sep 13 2.8% -4% -6% Jul 09-7.3% -8% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Supply % Chg Demand % Chg
Europe Occupancy & ADR %Chg 12 month moving average YE 2005 to September 2013 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Occ % Chg Jan 11 5.4% ADR % Chg May 11 5.7% -10% Jul 09-12% Nov 09-8.4% -11.5% -14% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sep 13 1.8% Sep 13-0.4%
Europe actual performance 12 month moving average YE 2005 to September 2013 1,800,000,000 1,600,000,000 120 1,400,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,000,000,000 800,000,000 100 80 60 600,000,000 400,000,000 200,000,000 40 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Supply Demand RevPAR 0
Europe P&L 2012 Annual % Change 15 TOTAL REVENUE DEPT. EXPENSES UNDIST. EXPENSES GOP NET INCOME TOTAL PAYROLL 10 12.2 7.5 5 3.8 3.7 0 1.2-5 -6.6-10
Europe Classes Occ and ADR % Chg YTD Sep 2012 & 2013 Euros 85% -0.3 300 80% 250 75% -1.9 200 150 70% -0.7-2.0-2.7 100 65% 50 60% +1.8 +2.3 +1.1 +1.8 +3.9 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy 0 Occ 12 Occ 13 ADR 12 ADR 13
European Regions Occ,ADR & RevPAR YTD Sep 2012 & 2013 in YTD 2013 Occ % ADR RevPAR Total 68.2 (+2.2%) 103.15 (-1.5%) 70.37 (+0.6%) Eastern 61.9 (+3.2%) 85.62 (-3.7%) 53.03 (-0.7%) Northern 73.3 (+3.3%) 95.35 (-4.8%) 69.87 (-1.7%) Southern 64.3 (+1.6%) 106.70 (+2.7%) 68.65 (+4.3%) Western 67.3 (+0.9%) 115.33 (-0.3%) 77.65 (+0.6%)
Eurozone vs Non-Eurozone Demand % Chg 12 months moving average YE 2005 to September 2013 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Nov 10 7.0% Sep 13 4.8% Sep 13 1.7% -8% Jul 09-10% -8.1% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Eurozone Non-Eurozone
Key Cities Europe Occ & ADR % Chg YTD September 2013 (local currency) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Occupancy ADR
Key European Cities Occ & ADR YTD September 2013 in Euros 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Occupancy ADR
RevPAR % Chg YE 11 +4.2% United Kingdom +1.5% YE 12 YTD 13 +2.5%
5.4% 1.4% -1.7% 4.4% 5.0% -1.3% 6.6% 5.4% 5.6% 6.8% 0.9% 9.6% RevPAR % Chg YTD Sep in GBP Scotland NE England N Ireland NW England Yorkshire Wales W Midlands E Midlands E England London SW England SE England
Key Cities UK Occ & ADR % Chg YTD September 2013 in GBP 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Occ ADR
Key Cities UK Occ & ADR YTD September 2013 in GBP 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 65.0 60.0 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 Occ ADR
RevPAR % Chg YE 11 +1.6% Regional UK -0.6% YE 12 YTD 13 +4.4%
Regional UK Market Scales and Classes Existing room supply Chain Scales Classes 1% 40% 7% 11% 32% 2% 12% 19% 21% 6% 14% 14% 21% Luxury Upper Upscale Luxury Class Upper Upscale Class Upscale Midscale Independent Upper Midscale Economy Upscale Class Midscale Class Upper Midscale Class Economy Class
Regional UK Classes Supply and Demand % Chg YTD September 2013 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy Supply Demand
Regional UK Classes YTD September 2012 & 2013 Occ and ADR in GBP 85% 300.0 80% 75% 70% 65% 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 60% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy 0.0 Occ 12 Occ 13 ADR 12 ADR 13
RevPAR % Chg YE 11 +7.9% London +2.2% YE 12 YTD 13-1.7%
London Occ & ADR Monthly performance 100% 190 90% 170 80% 150 70% 130 110 60% 90 50% 70 40% Jan 12 Feb Mar 12 12 Apr 12 May Jun 12 12 Jul 12 AugSep Oct 12 12 12 NovDec Jan 12 12 13 Feb Mar 13 13 Apr 13 May Jun 13 13 Jul 13 AugSep 13 13 50 Occupancy ADR
London Occupancy, ADR & RevPAR YTD Sep 2011 vs YTD Sep 2013 160 100 160 100 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 133 82.3% 110 90 140 80 70 120 60 YTD 100 Supply 50growth 80 40 4% 60 30 20 40 10 20 136 82.3% 112 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 0 0 2013 0 ADR RevPAR Occ ADR RevPAR Occ
Greater London Market Scales and Classes Existing room supply Chain Scales Classes 13% 5% 37% 9% 7% 17% 12% 9% 11% 23% 10% 29% 18% Luxury Upscale Midscale Independent Upper Upscale Upper Midscale Economy Luxury Class Upscale Class Midscale Class Upper Upscale Class Upper Midscale Class Economy Class
London Classes Supply & Demand % Chg YTD September 2013 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy Supply Demand
London Classes Occ & ADR YTD Sep 2012 & 2013 in GBP 85% 300 80% 75% 70% 65% 250 200 150 100 50 60% Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale/Economy 0 Occ 12 Occ 13 ADR 12 ADR 13
Pipeline & Forecast
Pipeline Europe As of September 2013 Supply Active Pipeline 32,835 135,006 21% 6% 15% 11% 6% 23% 18% 4,335,277 Existing Recently Opened Pipeline Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
Pipeline - Europe Rooms, September 2013 Ukraine Poland Italy France Netherlands Spain Turkey Germany Russia United Kingdom 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Existing Pipeline
Eurozone Demand & GDP % Chg Quarterly 2004 2015F (GDP Source: Oxford Economics) 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f Demand GDP
Forecast 2014 Occupancy and ADR % Chg
Contacts Naureen Ahmed STR Global +44 (0)207 922 1930 info@strglobal.com You can follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.