Republic of Indonesia

Similar documents
Reform on the move, stability intact

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MANAGEMENT

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MANAGEMENT

Government Securities Management October 13, 2015

Government Securities Management December 28, 2015

Government Securities Management

Government Debt Securities Management

Recent Economic Developments

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MANAGEMENT

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MANAGEMENT

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MANAGEMENT

The Korean Economy: Resilience amid Turbulence

The Republic of Indonesia Recent Economic Developments

Indonesia: Building on Resilience and Prospering Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Ndiame Diop, Lead Economist & Economic Advisor World Bank Indonesia BKPM, December 16, 2013

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Asia Bond Monitor November 2015

INDONESIA ECONOMIC QUARTERLY CLOSING THE GAP. Frederico Gil Sander Lead Economist October 3, 2017

The Republic of Indonesia Recent Economic Developments

APPENDIX: A SNAPSHOT OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Sovereign Risks and Financial Spillovers

Asia Bond Monitor June 2018

Prepared for Mandiri Investment Forum (MIF) 2018 February, , Jakarta

Source: BI, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research

Asia Bond Monitor March 2015

AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS

Sustaining Resilience, Expanding Opportunities for Inclusive Growth

Accelerating Momentum January 2008

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War

KEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016

Indonesia s Economic Outlook, Economic Challenges & Policy Responses

INDONESIA. The Real Economy

Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability

Indonesia Economic Quarterly: December 2012 Policies in focus

Indonesia Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges

B-GUIDE: Economic Outlook

Indonesia Fiscal Policy: Stimulus in the crisis time & long term development

Economic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco

Asia Bond Monitor November 2018

Monthly Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO)

Indonesia Economic Quarterly: October 2012 Maintaining resilience

China: Beyond the headlines. Bill Maldonado HSBC Global Asset Management

Nigeria Economic Update QNB Group. September 2014

Government Debt Securities Management August 11 th, 2017

Indonesia Economic Quarterly Launch Jakarta, March 18, Jim Brumby Sector Manager and Lead Economist

L-1 Part 2 Introduction to Indonesia Case Study

Juda Agung. Department of Economic Research and Monetary Policy BANK INDONESIA

INDONESIA. Figure 1. Less affected by shocks (Rupiah exchange rate before and after bombings) I. Recent Economic and Social Developments.

Indonesia Update. Yield Movements. Size and Composition

1. Macroeconomic Highlights

REFORMS IN THE MAKING

TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January March 2018

BNM Maintains OPR at 3.25%, Hawkish About Economic Outlook

Key developments and outlook

TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January June 2018

Kang Iman cari. Treasury and International Banking. Business Review. 06 Corporate Social Responsibility. 04 Management Discussion and Analysis

The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.

Monthly Economic Insight

Otaviano Canuto Vice President & Head of Network Poverty Reduction and Economic Management The World Bank

Investor Presentation. For 2018

Global growth weakening as some risks materialise

TURKEY: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS January September 2018

Malaysia. Real Sector. Economic recovery is gaining momentum.

Economic Outlook: Global and India. Ajit Ranade IEEMA T & D Conclave December 12, 2014

Asian Insights Third quarter 2016 Asia s commitment in policies and reforms

B-GUIDE: Market Outlook

SMSF Investment Seminar Sydney. 18 Oct 2010

The Outlook for Asian & Australian Economies

Global Markets Group. Trade Performance: Depressed by the Eid holiday Author: Juniman Chief Economist. Economic Research. Trade Outlook Monthly Report

Improved Macroeconomic Conditions Boost Consumer Sentiment to Its Highest Level in 3½-Year

AsianBondsOnline WEEKLY DEBT HIGHLIGHTS

Advanced and Emerging Economies Two speed Recovery

East Asia-Pacific Economic Update Clearing skies

Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund

Global Equites declined from Concern over Trade War

2.1 Supply. Nominal Farm Income. Bank of Thailand, November Real Farm Income

RECENT EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK OF THE MEXICAN ECONOMY BANCO DE MÉXICO OCTOBER 2003

Indonesia Update. Yield Movements. Size and Composition

Press Release Investment Realization of January - September 2017: Rp Trillion, 75.6% of the 2017 s Target

PRELIMINARY IMPACT OF GLOBAL CRISIS IN INDONESIA

Monetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges

PT. BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) Tbk. Financial Update Q Jakarta, October 2008

INDONESIA INVESTMENT COORDINATING BOARD. Press Release Investment Realization in the Second Quarter of 2016 Rose 12.3 %

Opportunities and Challenges across the Indonesia Investment Landscape

INDONESIA OUTLOOK. Striking The Right Balance Between Reform and Growth SRI MULYANI INDRAWATI MINISTER OF FINANCE OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA

India s International Trade & Investment

Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment

Indonesia Economics Update

Indonesia Sovereign Sukuk: Policy and Strategy

Investing in Indonesia: Perspectives from Regulators and Business Boston University Asian Alumni Festival

The Malaysian Economy

Fund Information. Fund Name. Fund Category. Fund Investment Objective. Fund Performance Benchmark. Fund Distribution Policy

Turkey: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. ISBANK Economic Research Division October 2018

MonitorING Turkey ING BANK A.Ş. Further fiscal support in the Medium Term Plan. Emerging Markets 4 October 2017

Supply. Bank of Thailand, December Nominal Farm Income. Real Farm Income. Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Recent Economic Developments

Regional Financial Integration and Financial Regulatory Cooperation The Importance of Asia s Bond Markets Lotte Schou-Zibell, ADB

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK : THE YEAR AHEAD FOR INDONESIA

Transcription:

Republic of Indonesia 2018 Investor Update Stability at the Forefront with Unwavering Reforms Commitment June 2018

Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by the Republic of Indonesia (the Republic ). This presentation is being presented solely for your information and is subject to change without notice. By accessing this presentation, you are agreeing to be bound by the restrictions set out below. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. This presentation contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. All statements other than statements of historical facts are forward-looking statements. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Republic to be materially different from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. The Republic has filed a registration statement (including the prospectus) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC ). You should read the prospectus in that registration statement (file no. -223441), any prospectus supplement and other documents that the Republic has filed with the SEC for more complete information about the Republic. A copy of the prospectus can be obtained for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC web site at www.sec.gov, from Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. at 60 Wall Street, New York, NY 10005, USA, Attention: Prospectus Group, by calling 1-800-503-4611, or by emailing prospectus.cpdg@db.com. A prospectus of the Republic, dated March 16, 2018, is available from the SEC website at https://www.sec.gov/archives/edgar/data/1719614/000119312518070289/d714087dsb.htm This presentation may not be reproduced, disseminated or quoted without the prior written consent of the Republic. 2

Outline 1 Executive Summary 2 Recent Macroeconomic Development 3 Financial Market Condition 4 2018 State Budget Realization Performance 5 Fiscal Incentive to Support Investment and Export 6 Medium Term Fiscal Objectives & 2019 Macro-Fiscal Framework 7 Monetary Policy and Banking Sector 8 Debt Management and Budget Financing 3

01 Widi Island in North Maluku, Indonesia Executive Summary

Executive Summary Indonesia in Snapshot Strong GDP Growth Supported by robust domestic activity and increasing role of investment Infrastructure Development Acceleration Strategic national projects supported by budget and non-budget financing (private sector) Credit Rating Improvement One of the Best GDP Growth Performer. with more potential to come Continuous Reform. Fiscal, monetary and Real sector International recognition from global rating agencies Prudent Debt Management Maintain productive use of public debt Reform on the Move Credible Policy Framework.followed by International Recognitions 1. Taxation 2. Investment Regulation 3. Bureaucratic Preserved Fiscal Prudence.improving creditworthiness 5

India China Turkey Indonesia Korea Mexico Australia Saudi Arabia United Kingdom United States Canada Germany South Africa Japan France Argentina Italy Russia Brazil Indonesia s GDP Growth Has Been Robust Consumption and investment remain as the main engines of growth GDP breakdown by expenditure (%, YoY) 2016 2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Y Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Y Q1 Household Consumption 4.98 5.10 5.04 5.03 5.04 5.00 5.02 4.95 4.98 4.98 5.01 Government Consumption 3.43 6.21 (2.95) (4.03) (0.14) 2.69 (1.92) 3.48 3.81 2.14 2.73 Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4.67 4.18 4.24 4.79 4.47 4.77 5.34 7.08 7.27 6.15 7.95 Export (3.10) (1.50) (5.75) 4.15 (1.57) 8.41 2.80 17.01 8.50 9.09 6.17 Import (5.04) (3.47) (4.13) 2.72 (2.45) 4.81 0.20 15.46 11.81 8.06 12.75 GDP 4.94 5.21 5.03 4.94 5.03 5.01 5.01 5.06 5.19 5.07 5.06 Domestic and foreign direct investment have been picking up thanks to the acceleration of infrastructure spending. International trade is rebounding and supporting growth, partly attributed to the increase of commodity prices, but also signals that global demand improves. Indonesia s growth is still stable and higher than most of its G20 peers Medium term growth is well maintained through improving investment climate and fiscal incentive GDP Growth Comparison Amongst G-20 Countries Indonesia GDP Projection 7.2 7.1 6.0 5.1 Institutions 2018 GDP Growth Projection Government of Indonesia (2018 Budget) 5.4% 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 IMF (WEO Apr 2018) 5.3% 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 World Bank (IEQ June 2018) 5.2% ADB (ADO Apr 2018) 5.3% (0.5) S&P (May 2018) 5.3% Fitch (Dec 2017) 5.4% Avg. GDP Growth 5 Years Std. Dev. GDP Growth 5 Years 6

Regional Growth Most of regions recorded positive growth in the first quarter 2018 2017: 4.30 2017: 4.14 2018: 4.37% SUMATERA: 21.5% of GDP 2017: 4.33 2017: 4.97 KALIMANTAN: 8.2% of GDP 2018: 3.25% 2017: 6.99 2017: 6.93 SULAWESI: 6.0% of GDP 2018: 6.83% 2017: 4.89 2017: 4.40 2018: 18.42% Government effort aimed to improve connectivity among the islands and bring down the logistics cost. The prices of basic goods in the outlying islands are becoming more affordable as the result. This will translate to improved efficiencies, thriving regional economies, and lowering the development disparity among the regions. 2017 Regional GDP Growth 2017 Q1 Regional GDP Growth 2018 Q1 Regional GDP Growth 2017: 5.61 2017: 5.69 2018: 5.78% JAVA: 58.7% of GDP 2017: 3.73 2017: 2.93 2018: 3.74% BALI & NUSRA: 3.0% of GDP PAPUA: 2.5% of GDP 2017 National GDP Growth 5.06% Infrastructure and connectivity projects to create more sustainable and equitable economic growth in all regions. Intergovernmental transfer, including Village Fund, has also promoted equality in the region. As the industrial center, Java still holds the biggest economic activity accounting for 58.67 percent of GDP Maluku and Papua recorded high growth of 18.42 percent, underpinned by the increase of commodity price and mining activity 7

Sovereign Rating Credit Upgrade and Improving Global Perception International acknowledgement from various agencies and improving global perception The 2018 World Bank Ease of Doing Business Ranking 1 31 May 2018 BBB- BBB- The sovereign ratings on Indonesia are supported by the government s relatively low debt levels and its moderate fiscal performance and external indebtedness 20 Dec 2017 BBB- BBB The focus on macro stability is also evident in credible budget assumptions in the previous few years 12 Feb 2018 BBB- BBB infrastructure development has been gaining momentum under strong initiative of President Joko Widodo for determination of National Strategic Projects (PSN) JUMPED 19 ranks 2018 : #72 out of 190 countries 7 Mar 2018 BBB- BBB 13 Apr 2018 Baa3 Baa2 Score: 66,5 ( 5.0) Indonesia's economy continues its strong performance, with inflation remaining low and stable. Fiscal deficits have been reined in, and government debt is low The upgrade to Baa2 is increasingly underpinned by a credible and effective policy framework conducive to macroeconomic stability 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 China Vietnam Indonesia Philippines Brazil India 2017: #91 2016: #106 2015: #120 1 Source: World Bank: Doing Business 2018: Reforming to Create Jobs 8

Inflation has been More Benign Create Substantial Foundation for Robust Consumption Inflation Rate (YTD, %) Inflation Rate & Components (%) 11.1% 8.4% 8.4% 7.0% 3.8% 4.3% 2.8% 3.4%3.0% 3.6% 1.3% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 May-18 Source: BPS Consumer Confidence Index 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.9% 3.1% 3.0% 8.7% 3 3.0% 4.3% 3.6% 3.2% Inflation is more benign supported by more stable food inflation as supply side improves. The administered price inflation is the biggest source of pressure in 2017, but pressure is easing as tariffs are adjusted at the end of the first semester of 2017. Indonesian Consumer Confidence is showing a vibrant economic activity and good expectation on economy 130 125 2.0% 2.8% Future Policies 120 115 110 105 100 J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bank Indonesia 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% (2.0)% J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M 2016 2017 2018 Inflation (CPI) Core Inflation Administered Price Volatile Food Source: BPS Improving logistic and distribution and stronger coordination between institutions are some key factor in inflation management The monitoring of prices and improvements to the trading of some food commodities can anticipate price game practices. 9

Direct Investment Grew by 11.8 Percent in Q1-2018 Underpinned by improving investment climate Nominal (Rp Tn) Direct Investment Realization FY-2016 FY-2017 Q1-2018 Growth (% YoY) Nominal (Rp Tn) Growth (% YoY) Nominal (Rp Tn) Growth (% YoY) Domestic 216.2 20.5 262.3 21.3 76.4 11.0 Foreign 396.6 8.4 430.5 8.5 108.9 12.4 Total 612.8 12.4 692.8 13.1 185.3 11.8 FDI Share by Country Origins Q1-2018 FDI Share by Country Origins 2010-2017 Singapore Japan S Korea China Hong Kong Other 8.3% 6.3% 11.6% 16.7% 24.5% 32.6% Singapore Japan US S Korea Netherland Malaysia China Hong Kong BVI Other 5.5% 5.4% 4.7% 4.6% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4% 12.2% 23.8% 32.9% Direct Investment Share by Sectors Q1-2018 Others 45% Transportation, Warehouse, & Telecommunication 8% Source: NSWi BKPM Metal, Machinery, & Electronic Industry Housing, 12% Estate & Building 15% Crops & Plantation 10% Electricity, Gas, & Water Supply 10% Positive FDI flow shows a high interest in Indonesia. Nevertheless, Java island is still the main destination for direct investment, roughly 55% of total FDI. Government Efforts To Improve Investment Climate : (1) Easing Import and Export Restrictions (2) Reducing Dwelling Time (3) Revising and Perfecting Tax Incentive (Tax Allowance and Tax Holiday) Overall structural reform efforts are expected to boost investment and exports to support Indonesia's economic growth in the medium term. 10

Import Growth Upholds Increasing Domestic Economic Activities Until April 2018, Trade Balance is Recording a Deficit of USD1.31 billion M J J A S O N D 2017-J F M A M J J A S O N D 2018-J F M A M M J J A S O N D 2017-J F M A M J J A S O N D 2018-J F M A J S N 2017-J M M J S N 2018-J M Trade Balance (USD Billion) Cumulative Growth of Export Commodity 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 (1.0) (2.0) Surplus FY 2016: USD9.5 billion Surplus FY 2017: USD11.8 billion Deficit Jan-Apr 2018: USD1.31 billion 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% (20.0)% (40.0)% (60.0)% 33.4% 5.3% 4.0% (5.1)% Non O&G O&G Total Agriculture Manufacturing Mining O&G Trade balance is recording deficit cumulatively in April 2018, due to high import growth that supports growing domestic production Import grew by 23.65% (YTD) supported by higher demand for festive seasons of Ramadhan and Idul Fitri; capital good increase to support infrastructure development and military equipment; and raw material increase that highlights improving domestic productivity and economic activity Top 4 Export/Import (Non-O&G) by Country April 2018 (USD Billion) Export (Non O&G) 1 China 1.8 2 United States 1.4 3 Japan 1.4 Import (Non O&G) 1 China 3.4 2 Japan 1.6 3 United States 1.0 50.0% 30.0% 10.0% (10.0)% (30.0)% Cumulative Growth of Import Goods 31.0% 26.1% 21.9% Contribution to Total Import Capital Goods 16.3% Consumption Goods 9.1% Export grew by 8.77% (YTD), underpinned by mining commodity growth of 33.4% and manufacturing of 5.3% 4 India 1.0 4 Thailand 0.9 Consumption goods Raw materials Capital goods Raw Materials 74.6% Source: BPS 11

Macroeconomic Indicators Remain Strong Indicators Revised Budget (APBN-P) 2016 2017 2018 2019 Realized 31 May APBN Realized 31 May Budget (APBN) Realized 31 May Submitted to Parliament Economic growth (%, yoy) 5.2 4.94 1 5.2 5.01 1 5.4 5.06 1 5.4 5.8 Inflation (%, yoy) 4.0 3.3 4.3 4.3 3.5 3.2 2.5 4.5 3-Month Treasury Bill (SPN) (%) Exchange Rate (Average, IDR/USD) 5.5 5.8 5.2 5.1 5.2 4.2 4.6 5.2 13,500 13,435 13,400 13,336 13,400 13,714 13,700 14,000 ICP (USD/barrel) 40 34 48 50 48 64 60 70 Oil Production (thousands of barrel/day) 820 805 815 784 800 742 2 722 805 Indonesia has been able to maintain robust economic performance which expected to continue in 2018 and 2019. Inflation is benign supported by improving logistic and infrastructure acceleration Interest rate and exchange rate are stable, benefiting from strong fundamental and positive investor perception in the midst of uncertain global condition. Increasing commodity price helped in boosting external position and revenue. Indonesia's economy is currently in the process of transitioning. However, Indonesia economy cannot be separated from external conditions (technology, trade, and geopolitics) as well as domestic challenges. Gas Production (millions of barrels/day) 1.15 1.18 1.15 1.14 1.20 1.14 2 1.21 1.30 1 Q1 figures. 2 As of April. 12

Performance of State Budget Fiscal Sustainability is Well Preserved as Fiscal Deficit Narrowed and Primary Balance Recorded a Substantial Surplus R-Budget 2017 2018 May Realization % Real to Budget Budget May Realization % Real to Budget % of Growth (YoY) A. Revenue & Grant 1,736.1 594.0 34.2 1,894.7 685.1 36.2 15.3 I. Domestic Revenue 1,733.0 593.8 34.3 1,893.5 683.7 36.1 15.1 1. Taxation Revenue 1,472.7 470.3 31.9 1,618.1 538.7 33.3 14.5 2. Non Tax Revenue 260.2 123.5 47.5 275.4 145.0 52.6 17.4 II. Grants 3.1 0.2 6.8 1.2 1.4 118.2 565.9 B. Expenditure 2,133.3 722.8 33.9 2,220.7 779.5 35.1 7.9 I. Central Government Expenditure 1,367.0 388.0 28.4 1,454.5 458.0 31.5 18.0 1. Ministerial Spending 798.6 193.0 24.2 847.4 231.5 27.3 19.9 2. Non Ministerial Spending 568.4 195.0 34.3 607.1 226.5 37.3 16.2 II. Transfer to Region and Village Fund 766.3 334.7 43.7 766.2 321.5 42.0 (4.0) 1. Transfer to Region 706.3 306.5 43.4 706.2 300.8 42.6 (1.9) 2. Village Fund 60.0 28.2 47.0 60.0 20.7 34.4 (26.7) C. Primary Balance (178.0) (29.9) 16.8 (87.3) 18.1 (20.7) (160.5) D. Surplus/(Deficit) (397.2) (128.7) 32.4 (325.9) (94.4) 29.0 (26.6) % of GDP (2.92) (0.94) (2.19) (0.64) E. Financing 397.2 195.6 49.3 325.9 169.9 52.1 (13.1) % of GDP 2.92 1.45 2.19 1.15 I. Debt 461.3 193.9 42.0 399.2 169.0 42.3 (12.8) II. Investment (59.7) 0.0 0.0 (65.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 III. SLA (3.7) 1.6 (43.6) (6.7) 0.8 (11.9) (50.1) IV. Guarantee (1.0) 0.0 0.0 (1.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 V. Other 0.3 0.2 50.6 0.2 0.1 53.4 (35.6) Surplus/(Deficit) Financing 0.0 66.9-0.0 75.5-12.8 The robust tax growth and positive performance in export and import duty good in the first quarter of 2018 is a positive support. Central Government Expenditure grows robustly Deficit realization of 0.64% of GDP is much lower compared to May 2017 Primary balance surplus is significantly higher than last year, highlighting improving fiscal performance and sustainability that well preserved 13

12,170 10,445 12,385 11,876 13,785 13,392 13,473 13,305 13,568 13,385 13,895 14,043 Stable Monetary Environment Conducive Monetary Environment Supporting the Economy US broad based appreciation has triggered regional depreciation, including the Rupiah. Compared to other countries, the Rupiah exchange rate depreciation is more limited underpinned by Indonesia s sound economic fundamentals and Bank Indonesia s foreign exchange stabilization policies in the form of dual intervention and policy response in the May Board meeting. Inflation Remained Under Control Rupiah Depreciated Due To USD Broad Based Appreciation YoY % 8.38 8.36 Managed inflation is observed throughout Indonesia, well within the target range of 3.5±1% in the majority of the regions. 3.35 3.02 3.61 3.23 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 May-18 Limited Depreciation Compared to Other Countries 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 May-18 EOP Average Measures To Stabilize Rupiah Exchange Rate As of May 2018 May vs April 2018 TRY (10.15) (8.43) BRL (5.84) (6.26) EUR (3.57) (3.90) ZAR (1.12) (3.48) (1.11) INR (2.75) THB (1.46) (2.08) (1.41) MYR (1.91) SGD (1.02) (1.76) IDR 0.13 (1.67) CNY (1.22) (1.19) KRW (0.85) (0.85) PHP (1.50) (0.33) (12.00) (10.00) (8.00) (6.00) (4.00) (2.00) 0.00 2.00 1 2 3 4 A pre-emptive, front-loading and aheadof-the-curve policy response Dual intervention in the foreign exchange market and government securities (Surat Berharga Negara SBN) market in a measured way Strengthening the monetary operations in the foreign exchange and money markets Intensive communication, especially to market players, banks, businesses, and economists To stabilise the rupiah exchange rate, while consistently controlling inflation within the 2018-2019 target range of 3.5±1% To stabilise the rupiah exchange rate, adjust fair prices in the financial markets and maintain adequate liquidity in the money market To maintain adequate liquidity in the rupiah money market and interbank swap market To form rational expectations, thus helping to mitigate the rupiah overshooting its fundamental level. Point to Point Average Source: BPS, Bank Indonesia 14

External Sector Remains Resilient Healthy Current Account Deficit and Balance of Payment (USD bn) 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 (10.0) (20.0) (30.0) (40.0) (50.0) (USD bn) Current Account Deficit is Improving, Significantly Lower than 2013 14.0 15.3 18.8 5.8 7.0 4.2 5.2 5.5 4.5 4.5 (2.0) (1.8) (1.7) (27.1) (28.4) (28.4) (29.6) (33.0) (29.1) (27.5) (17.5) (17.0) (17.5) (12.1) (10.0) (8.7) (7.1) (7.8) (3.2) (3.1) 1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* Primary Income Secondary Income Goods Services Current Account Current Account (% GDP)-rhs Ample Foreign Reserves to Buffer Against External Shocks (Month) % (1.0) (1.5) (2.0) (2.5) (3.0) (3.5) Components (USD bn) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1 Q1-2018 2 Current Account (29.1) (27.5) (17.5) (17.0) (17.5) (5.5) A. Goods 5.8 7.0 14.0 15.3 18.8 2.4 Export, fob 182.1 175.3 149.1 144.5 168.9 44.4 Import, fob (176.3) (168.3) (135.1) (129.2) (150.1) (42.1) B. Services, Primary & Secondary Income Balance of Payment (2013 2017) (34.9) (34.5) (31.6) (32.3) (36.3) (7.9) Capital & Financial Account 22.0 44.9 16.9 29.3 29.5 1.9 1. Direct Investment 12.2 14.7 10.7 16.1 19.2 3.1 2. Portfolio Investment 10.9 26.1 16.2 19.0 20.6 (1.2) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 99.4 5.4 Source: Bank Indonesia 1 Provisional figures. 2 Very provisional figures. 111.9 6.5 105.9 7.4 116.4 130.2 8.4 8.3 122.9 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 18-May May-18 International Reserves 7.2 Months of Imports & Servicing of Government Debt (rhs) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 3. Financial Derivatives (0.3) (0.2) 0.0 0.0 (0.1) 0.1 4. Other Investment (0.8) 4.3 (10.1) (5.8) (10.2) (0.2) Overall Balance (7.3) 15.2 (1.1) 12.1 11.6 (3.9) Memorandum: Reserve Assets Position 99.4 111.9 105.9 116.4 130.2 126.0 In months of imports & official debt repayment Current Account (% GDP) 5.5 6.5 7.4 8.4 8.3 7.7 (3.2) (3.1) (2.0) (1.8) (1.7) (2.2) 15

Balanced Debt Maturity Profile - Resilient Against External Shocks Marked by stable maturity profile and declining risks against interest rate and FX volatilities More Prudent Risk Management Manageable External Debt Service Requirements 86.3% 87.9% 89.3% 89.6% USD billions 9.2 9.6 9.9 13.4 4.5 14.6 4.2 13.0 3.9 44.5% 42.6% 40.4% 41.8% 3.3 3.6 4.0 21.4% 22.7% 25.4% 23.0% 5.9 6.0 5.9 8.9 10.4 9.1 2015 2016 2017 Apr-18 FCY debt-to-total Debt Fixed Interest-to-debt Maturing debt within 3 Years 2015 2016 2017 2018P² 2019P 2020P Principal Repayment Interest Repayment Well-Balanced Debt Maturity Profile¹ Average Time to Maturity of 8.7 years USD billions 29.8 17.6 5.4 12.2 10.8 19.0 20.9 22.5 22.2 20.8 21.1 9.5 10.3 10.8 11.0 8.5 11.5 12.1 11.3 9.8 12.5 14.5 10.8 3.7 16.6 16.9 7.2 6.9 9.4 10.0 15.5 8.3 9.4 1.9 7.3 7.5 3.9 1.8 2.1 11.5 1.6 9.9 8.2 1.5 6.7 6.1 1.3 4.8 8.2 1.0 7.2 2.7 2.3 0.4 7.8 0.5 7.3 3.9 1.9 2.1 7.6 2.2 5.3 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 1.1 0.1 22.4 14.6 7.8 IDR Denominated Source: Ministry of Finance 1 Debt Maturity Profile as of April 30, 2018. 2 Based on outstanding debt as of 31-May-2018. Other Currencies 16

2018 Progress of Issuance Creating Prudent and Sustainable Fiscal Management Instruments Weekly Auction: Domestic Government Securities Conventional securities 24-25x Islamic securities 24-25x Non-Auction Retail Bonds and Retail Sukuk (ORI, SBR, Sukuk Ritel) Private Placement Target avg. tenor maturity for Government Securities Issuance Source: Ministry of Finance 1 Original amount was Rp 414.5 tn, shifting to loan in amount of Rp 7.3 tn. Indicative Budget Target Rp tn USD bn Budget Deficit (2.19% of GDP) 325.9 24.3 Financing 399.2 29.8 Government Securities (Net) 1 407.2 30.4 Government Securities (Gross) 834.3 62.3 Composition Domestic Government Securities 80-83% International Government Securities 17-20% USD Sukuk USD EUR JPY Government Securities to Meet State Budget Financing International Government Securities Based on request 7-8 years Avoid crowding out in domestic market Provide benchmarks for corporate bonds Investor base diversification Auction Issuance Targets for Government Securities Government Sukuk 25%-30% Alternative of Issuance Private Placement Government Debt Securities 70%-75% Government Securities Financing Realization Book Building Realization % Budget 2018 (as of May 2018) Realization Rp tn USD bn Rp tn USD bn to Budget 2018 Government securities (net) 1 407.2 30.4 190.8 14.2 46.8% Government securities (gross) 834.3 62.3 434.9 32.5 52.1% Government debt securities (GDS) 602.2 44.9 303.2 22.6 50.4% Domestic GDS 504.3 37.6 205.3 15.3 International bonds 97.9 7.3 97.9 7.3 Government Sukuk 232.1 17.2 131.7 9.7 56.8% Domestic Government sukuk 190.7 14.2 90.3 6.7 Global Sukuk 41.4 3.0 41.4 3.0 17

Indonesia s Infrastructure Projects and Financing Schemes Promotion of Infrastructure Development to Accelerate Economic Growth Infrastructure Development is a Key Priority Infrastructure Development in order to: 1. Accelerate growth particularly in rural areas 2. Support industrial development and tourism 3. Reduce unemployment and poverty Infrastructure fundraising needs: USD 357.9 bn (or equivalent to Rp 4,796.2 tn) 245 National Strategy Projects under National Medium Term Plan for 2015 2019 with an estimated total cost of Rp 4,197 tn (USD 313 bn) 37 priority infrastructure projects with an estimated cost of Rp 2,490tn (USD 180 bn) Majority of 37 priority projects are expected to commence commercial operation by 2018-2022 Broad Objective Core Mandates Additional Mandates Establishment of PPP Unit Champion project preparation and acceleration of the PPP agenda in Indonesia Improve quality of project selection under KPPIP OBC criteria Support project preparation through Project Development Facility support and highly qualified transaction advisors Act on behalf the Minister of Finance in providing government support and approvals for projects Coordinate all public finance instruments Provide input for PPP Policy Development and Regulations Implement capacity building program for GCAs One stop shop for PPP promotion & Information Budget Public Private Partnership SOE & Private Sector Central & regional budget (special allocation fund & rural transfer) Primarily to support basic infrastructure projects: Food security: Irrigation, dams etc. Maritime: Seaports, shipyards etc. Connectivity: Village roads, public transportation etc. Certain infrastructure projects to be funded and operated through a partnership between the Indonesian government and the private sector Projects ready for auction under the PPP Scheme: Toll roads projects such as Balikpapan-Samarinda and Manado-Bitung Railway projects such as an express line into Soekarno-Hatta International Airport Water supply projects such as the West Semarang Project Various government support for PPP: Project Development Facility (PDF): Helps Government Contracting Agencies (GCAs) in project preparation and transaction VGF: improves financial viability of PPP projects Government Guarantees: Supports PPP projects bankability by providing sovereign guarantees Infrastructure Financing Fund: Provided through PT SMI and IIGF Availability Payment (AP): GCA pays private partner based of availability of infrastructure services Government to inject capital into SOEs: Intended multiplier effect to develop more infrastructure projects Key focus areas: Infrastructure and maritime development Transportation and connectivity Food security Medium term infrastructure developments to focus on: Water Supply Airports Seaports Electricity and power plants Housing Mining Source: Ministry of Finance; Bappenas; KPPIP: Komite Kebijakan Percepatan Penyediaan Infrastruktur or National Committee for the Acceleration of Infrastructure Provision; OBC: Outline Business Case; PDF: Project Development Facility; GCA: Government Contracting Activity 18

Solid Policy Coordination In Managing Financial Markets Volatility The enactment of Law No. 9/2016 regarding Prevention and Mitigation of Financial System Crises as a legal foundation for the government to serves at the time of financial crisis in the form of Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) Most important provisions stipulated in the Law: KSSK members: the Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia, the Financial Services Authority, and the Deposit Insurance Corporation Financial system stability monitoring and maintenance by KSSK members based on crisis management protocol of each member; Prevention of financial system crisis, including the mitigation of systemically important bank s liquidity and solvency problems; Recovery Plan for Systemically Important Banks; Bank Restructuring Program Gov t Securities CMP Level Gov t Securities Crisis Management Protocol (CMP) Indicators: Yield of benchmark series; Exchange rate; Jakarta Composite Index; Foreign ownership in government securities Policies to address the crisis at every level : Repurchase the government securities at secondary market Postpone or stop the issuance State s Budget State Owned Enterprises (BUMN) s Budget Social Security Organizing Agency (BPJS) s Budget Bond Stabilization Framework First Line of Defense Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing and Risk Management Investment fund at Public Service Agency (BLU) (min. level Aware) Related SOEs (min. level Aware) BPJS (min. level Aware) Second Line of Defense NORMAL AWARE ALERT CRISIS State s Budget State General Treasury Account (Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert) Accumulated cash surplus (SAL) (min. Level Crisis) 19

02 Ampera Bridge in South Sumatera, Indonesia Recent Macroeconomic Development

India China Turkey Indonesia Korea Mexico Australia Saudi Arabia United Kingdom United States Canada Germany South Africa Japan France Argentina Italy Russia Brazil Indonesia s GDP Growth Has Been Robust Consumption and investment remain as the main engines of growth GDP breakdown by expenditure (%, YoY) 2016 2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Y Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Y Q1 Household Consumption 4.98 5.10 5.04 5.03 5.04 5.00 5.02 4.95 4.98 4.98 5.01 Government Consumption 3.43 6.21 (2.95) (4.03) (0.14) 2.69 (1.92) 3.48 3.81 2.14 2.73 Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4.67 4.18 4.24 4.79 4.47 4.77 5.34 7.08 7.27 6.15 7.95 Export (3.10) (1.50) (5.75) 4.15 (1.57) 8.41 2.80 17.01 8.50 9.09 6.17 Import (5.04) (3.47) (4.13) 2.72 (2.45) 4.81 0.20 15.46 11.81 8.06 12.75 GDP 4.94 5.21 5.03 4.94 5.03 5.01 5.01 5.06 5.19 5.07 5.06 Domestic and foreign direct investment have been picking up thanks to the acceleration of infrastructure spending. International trade is rebounding and supporting growth, partly attributed to the increase of commodity prices, but also signals that global demand improves. Indonesia s growth is still stable and higher than most of its G20 peers Medium term growth is well maintained through improving investment climate and fiscal incentive GDP Growth Comparison Amongst G-20 Countries Indonesia GDP Projection 7.2 7.1 6.0 5.1 Institutions 2018 GDP Growth Projection Government of Indonesia (2018 Budget) 5.4% 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 IMF (WEO Apr 2018) 5.3% 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 World Bank (IEQ June 2018) 5.2% ADB (ADO Apr 2018) 5.3% (0.5) S&P (May 2018) 5.3% Fitch (Dec 2017) 5.4% Avg. GDP Growth 5 Years Std. Dev. GDP Growth 5 Years 21

Secondary GDP by Production Side Manufacturing improves while service sector generally keeps on recording high growth Agriculture (%, YoY) Mining (%, YoY) Primary sector grew marginally: Tertiary Primary 4.03 3.36 3.81 3.14 2016 2017 Q1-2018 Manufacturing (%, YoY) 4.26 4.27 4.50 2016 2017 Q1-2018 Trade (%,YoY) 4.44 4.96 7.45 Transportation (%, YoY) 8.49 8.59 8.88 0.95 0.69 0.74 2016 2017 Q1-2018 5.22 Construction (%, YoY) 6.79 7.35 2016 2017 Q1-2018 Comm & Info (%, YoY) 9.81 8.69 Financial Service (%, YoY) 8.90 5.48 4.38 Agriculture slowed due to production decrease in food crops Mining growth increased supported by increasing metal ores production, but the decline in energy commodity production weighed on overall growth Secondary sector on an improving trend: Manufacturing sector growth increased particularly supported by F&B, textile, and metal industries Construction recorded high growth driven by infrastructure acceleration program Tertiary sector continues to show strong growth: Trade accelerated in line with increasing export-import as well as vehicle sales Transportation, communication, and information sectors consistently posted high growth supported by improving logistic and digital economy 2016 2017 Q1-18 2016 2017 Q1-18 2016 2017 Q1-18 2016 2017 Q1-18 Financial service sector grew moderately as credit growth remains soft 22

Regional Growth Most of regions recorded positive growth in the first quarter 2018 2017: 4.30 2017: 4.14 2018: 4.37% SUMATERA: 21.5% of GDP 2017: 4.33 2017: 4.97 KALIMANTAN: 8.2% of GDP 2018: 3.25% 2017: 6.99 2017: 6.93 SULAWESI: 6.0% of GDP 2018: 6.83% 2017: 4.89 2017: 4.40 2018: 18.42% Government effort aimed to improve connectivity among the islands and bring down the logistics cost. The prices of basic goods in the outlying islands are becoming more affordable as the result. This will translate to improved efficiencies, thriving regional economies, and lowering the development disparity among the regions. 2017 Regional GDP Growth 2017 Q1 Regional GDP Growth 2018 Q1 Regional GDP Growth 2017: 5.61 2017: 5.69 2018: 5.78% JAVA: 58.7% of GDP 2017: 3.73 2017: 2.93 2018: 3.74% BALI & NUSRA: 3.0% of GDP PAPUA: 2.5% of GDP 2017 National GDP Growth 5.06% Infrastructure and connectivity projects to create more sustainable and equitable economic growth in all regions. Intergovernmental transfer, including Village Fund, has also promoted equality in the region. As the industrial center, Java still holds the biggest economic activity accounting for 58.67 percent of GDP Maluku and Papua recorded high growth of 18.42 percent, underpinned by the increase of commodity price and mining activity 23

Direct Investment Grew by 11.8 Percent in Q1-2018 Underpinned by improving investment climate Nominal (Rp Tn) Direct Investment Realization FY-2016 FY-2017 Q1-2018 Growth (% YoY) Nominal (Rp Tn) Growth (% YoY) Nominal (Rp Tn) Growth (% YoY) Domestic 216.2 20.5 262.3 21.3 76.4 11.0 Foreign 396.6 8.4 430.5 8.5 108.9 12.4 Total 612.8 12.4 692.8 13.1 185.3 11.8 FDI Share by Country Origins Q1-2018 FDI Share by Country Origins 2010-2017 Singapore Japan S Korea China Hong Kong Other 8.3% 6.3% 11.6% 16.7% 24.5% 32.6% Singapore Japan US S Korea Netherland Malaysia China Hong Kong BVI Other 5.5% 5.4% 4.7% 4.6% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4% 12.2% 23.8% 32.9% Direct Investment Share by Sectors Q1-2018 Others 45% Transportation, Warehouse, & Telecommunication 8% Source: NSWi BKPM Metal, Machinery, & Electronic Industry Housing, 12% Estate & Building 15% Crops & Plantation 10% Electricity, Gas, & Water Supply 10% Positive FDI flow shows a high interest in Indonesia. Nevertheless, Java island is still the main destination for direct investment, roughly 55% of total FDI. Government Efforts To Improve Investment Climate : (1) Easing Import and Export Restrictions (2) Reducing Dwelling Time (3) Revising and Perfecting Tax Incentive (Tax Allowance and Tax Holiday) Overall structural reform efforts are expected to boost investment and exports to support Indonesia's economic growth in the medium term. 24

Inflation has been More Benign Create Substantial Foundation for Robust Consumption Inflation Rate (YTD, %) Inflation Rate & Components (%) 11.1% 8.4% 8.4% 7.0% 3.8% 4.3% 2.8% 3.4%3.0% 3.6% 1.3% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 May-18 Source: BPS Consumer Confidence Index 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.9% 3.1% 3.0% 8.7% 3 3.0% 4.3% 3.6% 3.2% Inflation is more benign supported by more stable food inflation as supply side improves. The administered price inflation is the biggest source of pressure in 2017, but pressure is easing as tariffs are adjusted at the end of the first semester of 2017. Indonesian Consumer Confidence is showing a vibrant economic activity and good expectation on economy 130 125 2.0% 2.8% Future Policies 120 115 110 105 100 J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bank Indonesia 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% (2.0)% J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M 2016 2017 2018 Inflation (CPI) Core Inflation Administered Price Volatile Food Source: BPS Improving logistic and distribution and stronger coordination between institutions are some key factor in inflation management The monitoring of prices and improvements to the trading of some food commodities can anticipate price game practices. 25

Import Growth Upholds Increasing Domestic Economic Activities Until April 2018, Trade Balance is Recording a Deficit of USD1.31 billion M J J A S O N D 2017-J F M A M J J A S O N D 2018-J F M A M M J J A S O N D 2017-J F M A M J J A S O N D 2018-J F M A J S N 2017-J M M J S N 2018-J M Trade Balance (USD Billion) Cumulative Growth of Export Commodity 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 (1.0) (2.0) Surplus FY 2016: USD9.5 billion Surplus FY 2017: USD11.8 billion Deficit Jan-Apr 2018: USD1.31 billion 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% (20.0)% (40.0)% (60.0)% 33.4% 5.3% 4.0% (5.1)% Non O&G O&G Total Agriculture Manufacturing Mining O&G Trade balance is recording deficit cumulatively in April 2018, due to high import growth that supports growing domestic production Import grew by 23.65% (YTD) supported by higher demand for festive seasons of Ramadhan and Idul Fitri; capital good increase to support infrastructure development and military equipment; and raw material increase that highlights improving domestic productivity and economic activity Top 4 Export/Import (Non-O&G) by Country April 2018 (USD Billion) Export (Non O&G) 1 China 1.8 2 United States 1.4 3 Japan 1.4 Import (Non O&G) 1 China 3.4 2 Japan 1.6 3 United States 1.0 50.0% 30.0% 10.0% (10.0)% (30.0)% Cumulative Growth of Import Goods 31.0% 26.1% 21.9% Contribution to Total Import Capital Goods 16.3% Consumption Goods 9.1% Export grew by 8.77% (YTD), underpinned by mining commodity growth of 33.4% and manufacturing of 5.3% 4 India 1.0 4 Thailand 0.9 Consumption goods Raw materials Capital goods Raw Materials 74.6% Source: BPS 26

2018 Growth Outlook Economy is projected to further accelerate in the midst of robust domestic demand and improving international trade GDP Growth Projection (%, YoY) Opportunities: 5.4 5.6 Stable consumption supported by benign inflation 4.9 5.02 5.07 Rising investment driven by infrastructure development and improving business climate 2015 2016 2017 2018 APBN 2019 (Submitted to Parliament)¹ Increasing export as external demand recovering and commodity prices increasing Additional contribution from various special occasions such as Asian Games, regional election, general election preparation, and IMF-WB annual meeting 2018 Growth Projection from Various Institutions IMF (WEO Apr 2018) 5.3% World Bank (IEQ June 2018) 5.2% ADB (ADO Apr 2018) 5.3% Challenges: Consumption growth needs to be boosted more Competitiveness needs to be enhanced particularly to fulfill growing domestic demand S&P (May 2018) 5.3% Fitch (Dec 2017) 5.4% Credit growth needs to be accelerated more External uncertainties: US monetary normalization, trade wars and protectionism, and geopolitical tension 1 Mid-point of 5.4% and 5.8% economic growth assumption, submitted to parliament. 27

03 Financial Market Condition Lake Toba in North Sumatera, Indonesia

Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Global New Normal is Coming Stabilization policy may influence in reaching Indonesia desired growth target US Policy Rates & 10Y Yield Potential Risk For Indonesia in 2019 4 3 2 3.10 1.75 People preference to saving, rather than consumption, not followed by productive (intermediate) financial market Monetary policy normalization and US recent taxation policy could influence capital flow to emerging markets 1 0 Wait and See profile of investor due to General Election process Inward looking policies in Indonesia s key trade partner with potential trade war between US and China. Fed Fund Rate upper bound 10Y US Gov't Bonds Strategic Policy Prepared The Government will continue to monitor global condition because it can translates to domestic economy Policy coordination amongst authorities will be continued (Government, Central Bank, FSA, Deposit insurance Corporation) Coordinated policy to create Stability in Exchange rate, Manageable inflation rate, Healthy fiscal deficit, and Supportive current account profile Fiscal Policies to support investment, competitiveness and export performance. This include: Fiscal incentives for investment Expansionary budget policy, supporting productive sectors and assuring infrastructure development. Private involvement in infrastructure development Well-targeted and well-timed social spending Central and Regional Policy coordination Real Sector Policies Law and Regulation certainty Improving business climate Maintaining prudent inflation management Strengthening export performance, include those from non-commodity (high value added) related activities and taping prospective new markets 29

Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Uncertainties and Policy Dynamics Have Created Volatility in Global Financial Market Depreciation has been widely experienced by global currencies as US monetary normalization continues on VIX and MOVE Indices Global Currencies Index Against US Dollar (31 Dec 2017 = 100) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 Indonesia Jepang China India EU Canada UK AUS 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Yields & Rupiah Movement 14,200 14,000 13,800 13,600 13,400 13,200 13,000 12,800 12,600 Spread T Bond 10 Y SUN 10 Y IDR (RHS) US policy normalization and global dynamic have led to volatilities in the financial markets Rupiah, along with global currencies experiences depreciation against US Dollar BI has increased 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate in May 2018 by 25 bps to 4.75% to maintain economic stability in the midst of global financial sector volatilities Deposit insurance rate has increased by 25 bps to 6.00% for commercial bank (IDR), 50 bps to 1.25% for commercial bank (foreign currency) and by 25 bps for rural bank in June 2018 30

Indexed Prices Yield (%) Uncertainties and Policy Dynamics Have Created Volatility in Global Financial Market (Cont d) There has been volatilities in the stock market and local bond market. However, financial services sectors have remained resilient Price Performance of Stock Market Indices of Emerging Market Peers (2018 YTD) 10-Year Local Government Yield of Emerging Market Peers (2018 YTD) Commentary 130% 12% 11.3% There has been volatility in Indonesia s financial markets and yield of local government 10-year bond in 2018, in line with other emerging markets. 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% Jan- 2018 Feb- 2018 JCI (Indonesia) SET (Thailand) PSEI (Philippines) BOVESPA (Brazil) Mar- 2018 Apr- 2018 May- 2018 Jun- 2018 4.2% 1.1% 0.9% (1.9)% (2.3)% (5.9)% (6.5)% (10.8)% KLCI (Malaysia) Hochiminh (Vietnam) CSI 300 (China) SENSEX 30 (India) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan- 2018 Feb- 2018 Mar- 2018 Apr- 2018 May- 2018 Jun- 2018 Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Philippines China Brazil India 7.8% 7.1% 6.1% 4.7% 4.2% 3.6% 2.9% However, Indonesia s financial services sector stability and liquidity has remained solid throughout 2018. As of April 2018, Financial services institutions have maintained adequate capital and liquidity, with the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) in the banking industry recorded at 22.38% RBC of the general insurance and life insurance industries recorded at 310% and 454%, respectively Excess reserve in the banking industry was Rp 618 trillion Credit and market risk remain credible gross NPL ratio of 2.79% in the banking industry and NPF ratio 3.01% as reported by finance companies Deposit guarantee coverage of the Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) has reached 99.9% of customers and 52.15% in terms of value, demonstrating public confidence and trust in the national banking system Source: Data Stream as of 1-Jun-2018 Source: Data Stream as of 1-Jun-2018 31

Solid Policy Coordination In Managing Financial Markets Volatility The enactment of Law No. 9/2016 regarding Prevention and Mitigation of Financial System Crises as a legal foundation for the government to serves at the time of financial crisis in the form of Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) Most important provisions stipulated in the Law: KSSK members: the Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia, the Financial Services Authority, and the Deposit Insurance Corporation Financial system stability monitoring and maintenance by KSSK members based on crisis management protocol of each member; Prevention of financial system crisis, including the mitigation of systemically important bank s liquidity and solvency problems; Recovery Plan for Systemically Important Banks; Bank Restructuring Program Gov t Securities CMP Level Gov t Securities Crisis Management Protocol (CMP) Indicators: Yield of benchmark series; Exchange rate; Jakarta Composite Index; Foreign ownership in government securities Policies to address the crisis at every level : Repurchase the government securities at secondary market Postpone or stop the issuance State s Budget State Owned Enterprises (BUMN) s Budget Social Security Organizing Agency (BPJS) s Budget Bond Stabilization Framework First Line of Defense Buyback fund at DG of Budget Financing and Risk Management Investment fund at Public Service Agency (BLU) (min. level Aware) Related SOEs (min. level Aware) BPJS (min. level Aware) Second Line of Defense NORMAL AWARE ALERT CRISIS State s Budget State General Treasury Account (Rekening KUN) (min. level Alert) Accumulated cash surplus (SAL) (min. Level Crisis) 32

Additional Measures to Strengthen Stability and Growth of Financial Markets The Government, Bank Indonesia (BI), The Financial Services Authority (OJK) and The Indonesian Deposit Insurance Corporation are strengthening coordination and implementing an optimal policy mix to maintain economic stability and ongoing development efforts Stronger coordination prioritizes short-term stability of economy and financial markets while nurturing medium-term growth In the Near Term, Bank Indonesia Will Prioritize Monetary Policy Oriented Towards Rupiah Exchange Rate Stability 4 1 Pre-emptive policy response 2 First, a pre-emptive, front-loading and ahead-of-the-curve policy response will be pursued to stabilize the rupiah exchange rate, while consistently maintaining low and controlled inflation within the 2018-2019 target corridor of 3.5±1% Second, dual intervention in the foreign exchange market and SBN market will constantly be optimized to stabilize the Rupiah exchange rate along with fair price adjustments in the financial markets, while maintaining adequate liquidity in the money market Intensive Communication with key market, industry, business stakeholders 3 Strengthening of monetary operations in FX and money markets Dual intervention in FX/ SBN markets Third, the monetary operations strategy will be oriented towards maintaining adequate liquidity, particularly in the Rupiah money market and interbank swap market Fourth, intensive communication with market players, the banking industry, business community and economists will be used to form rational expectations, thus helping to mitigate the rupiah overshooting the currency s fundamental value In addition, to maintain and build the current pace of domestic economic growth momentum, Bank Indonesia is preparing follow-up measures to ease macroprudential policy, while also coordinating with the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) to accelerate financial market deepening, particularly for private sector infrastructure financing 33

Additional Measures to Strengthen Stability and Growth of Financial Markets (Cont d) Financial Sector Supervision Conducted by the Financial Services Authority (OJK) is Focused on Maintaining a Healthy Financial Sector OJK continues to back the financial market deepening program in terms of supply and demand, while strengthening market infrastructure and facilitating municipal bond issuances and asset securitization OJK maintains financial services sector stability through industry resilience, strengthening issuer fundamentals and implementing appropriate policy measures when the financial markets experience pressures LPS is Open to Make Any Necessary Adjustments to the Guarantee Rate The Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) will intensify the monitoring and evaluation of deposit guarantee schemes along with the Magnitude and Guarantee Rate LPS is open to make any necessary adjustments to the Guarantee Rate at the first opportunity in accordance with the latest data available and assessments of financial system stability LPS will intensify monitoring and evaluation in order to maintain public confidence in the national banking system of Indonesia OJK nurtures credit growth and financial sector financing by prioritizing financing that targets export commodities In addition, OJK will continue to advocate financial inclusion to stimulate quality economic growth through the development of People s Business Loan (KUR) clusters, waqf-based microfinance and FinTech 34

04 Komodo National Park in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia 2018 State Budget Realization Performance

Macroeconomic Indicators Remain Strong Indicators Revised Budget (APBN-P) 2016 2017 2018 2019 Realized 31 May APBN Realized 31 May Budget (APBN) Realized 31 May Submitted to Parliament Economic growth (%, yoy) 5.2 4.94 1 5.2 5.01 1 5.4 5.06 1 5.4 5.8 Inflation (%, yoy) 4.0 3.3 4.3 4.3 3.5 3.2 2.5 4.5 3-Month Treasury Bill (SPN) (%) Exchange Rate (Average, IDR/USD) 5.5 5.8 5.2 5.1 5.2 4.2 4.6 5.2 13,500 13,435 13,400 13,336 13,400 13,714 13,700 14,000 ICP (USD/barrel) 40 34 48 50 48 64 60 70 Oil Production (thousands of barrel/day) 820 805 815 784 800 742 2 722 805 Indonesia has been able to maintain robust economic performance which expected to continue in 2018 and 2019. Inflation is benign supported by improving logistic and infrastructure acceleration Interest rate and exchange rate are stable, benefiting from strong fundamental and positive investor perception in the midst of uncertain global condition. Increasing commodity price helped in boosting external position and revenue. Indonesia's economy is currently in the process of transitioning. However, Indonesia economy cannot be separated from external conditions (technology, trade, and geopolitics) as well as domestic challenges. Gas Production (millions of barrels/day) 1.15 1.18 1.15 1.14 1.20 1.14 2 1.21 1.30 1 Q1 figures. 2 As of April. 36

Performance of State Budget Fiscal Sustainability is Well Preserved as Fiscal Deficit Narrowed and Primary Balance Recorded a Substantial Surplus R-Budget 2017 2018 May Realization % Real to Budget Budget May Realization % Real to Budget % of Growth (YoY) A. Revenue & Grant 1,736.1 594.0 34.2 1,894.7 685.1 36.2 15.3 I. Domestic Revenue 1,733.0 593.8 34.3 1,893.5 683.7 36.1 15.1 1. Taxation Revenue 1,472.7 470.3 31.9 1,618.1 538.7 33.3 14.5 2. Non Tax Revenue 260.2 123.5 47.5 275.4 145.0 52.6 17.4 II. Grants 3.1 0.2 6.8 1.2 1.4 118.2 565.9 B. Expenditure 2,133.3 722.8 33.9 2,220.7 779.5 35.1 7.9 I. Central Government Expenditure 1,367.0 388.0 28.4 1,454.5 458.0 31.5 18.0 1. Ministerial Spending 798.6 193.0 24.2 847.4 231.5 27.3 19.9 2. Non Ministerial Spending 568.4 195.0 34.3 607.1 226.5 37.3 16.2 II. Transfer to Region and Village Fund 766.3 334.7 43.7 766.2 321.5 42.0 (4.0) 1. Transfer to Region 706.3 306.5 43.4 706.2 300.8 42.6 (1.9) 2. Village Fund 60.0 28.2 47.0 60.0 20.7 34.4 (26.7) C. Primary Balance (178.0) (29.9) 16.8 (87.3) 18.1 (20.7) (160.5) D. Surplus/(Deficit) (397.2) (128.7) 32.4 (325.9) (94.4) 29.0 (26.6) % of GDP (2.92) (0.94) (2.19) (0.64) E. Financing 397.2 195.6 49.3 325.9 169.9 52.1 (13.1) % of GDP 2.92 1.45 2.19 1.15 I. Debt 461.3 193.9 42.0 399.2 169.0 42.3 (12.8) II. Investment (59.7) 0.0 0.0 (65.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 III. SLA (3.7) 1.6 (43.6) (6.7) 0.8 (11.9) (50.1) IV. Guarantee (1.0) 0.0 0.0 (1.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 V. Other 0.3 0.2 50.6 0.2 0.1 53.4 (35.6) Surplus/(Deficit) Financing 0.0 66.9-0.0 75.5-12.8 The robust tax growth and positive performance in export and import duty good in the first quarter of 2018 is a positive support. Central Government Expenditure grows robustly Deficit realization of 0.64% of GDP is much lower compared to May 2017 Primary balance surplus is significantly higher than last year, highlighting improving fiscal performance and sustainability that well preserved 37

Fiscal Deficit and Primary Balance on an Improving Trend May Realization (RP Tn) (6.0) 109.2 26.0 18.0 66.9 62.2 Primary surplus Higher than previous period, indicating that fiscal sustainability improves Surplus of financing realization in 30 May 2018 in-line with previous year 18.0 T 62.2 T (29.9) (71.1) (94.5) (189.1) (110.3) (128.7) Fiscal deficit realization (94.5) T 2015 2016 2017 2018 Deficit Surplus of Financing Primary Balance 38