IPD Global Annual Property Index launch 1 April 213 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 1
IPD Global Annual Property Index launch Presenters and panel members Presenters Peter Hobbs, Head of Research, IPD Mark Clacy-Jones, Head of Indices, IPD Panel Timothy Bellman, Head of Global Research, Invesco Real Estate Pierre Cherki, Head of Alternatives and Real Assets, Deutsche Asset and Wealth Management Sabina Kalyan, Global Research Director of Operations and Chief Economist, CBRE Global Investors 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 2
Global Index composition by market Americas 42% Switzerland 4% Australia 4% Japan 1% UK 7% Asia Pacific 2% Other EMEA 17% Eurozone 21% Netherlands 3% France 6% Americas 42% Germany 6% Canada 4% United States 38% Eurozone / EMEA 38% Asia Pacific 2% Source: IPD, KTI 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 3 3 6
198 1981 1982 1983 1984 198 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 199 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 Global property cycles % pa 4 3 2 - -2-3 -4 Source: IPD, KTI 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 4
Global & Pan-European cycles Total Return (%) 3 2 Spread IPD Global Index IPD Pan European Index 2 1 - - -1-2 Global = 7.4% Pan-European = 4.3% -2-3 -3 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 Source: IPD, KTI 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com
21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 3 Years Years Years The recovery continued in 212, albeit at a slower rate % pa 2 1 14.1 14. Capital growth Income return Total return -year annualised total return 7.4 6.8 7.9.7.9 9. 9.7 7.4 8.8 6.8 2.4 -.1-8. Source: IPD, KTI 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 6
Currency impact on global returns Total Return (%) 2 2 1 2.3 Local - 7.4.8 2.7 EUR GBP - -1 USD -2-2 JPY -3 21 22 23 24 2 26 27 28 29 2 211 212 Source: IPD, KTI 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 7
South Africa Canada United States Australia New Zealand IPD Global Index Korea Switzerland Sweden Poland France Austria Finland Norway Czech Republic Germany Pan-European Denmark Japan Belgium UK Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal Hungary Spain Regional split of strong & weak performance % pa 2 1.2 14.1 1 Capital growth Income return Total return IPD Global Index.7 9.4 8.8 7.4 7.2 6.8 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2 6. 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.3 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.1 1. 1.2.8-1.9-2.1 Source: IPD, KTI 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 8
27 28 29 2 211 212 27 28 29 2 211 212 27 28 29 2 211 212 Capital value performance in the current cycle Resilient markets Recovering markets Lagging markets up more than 1% from trough (or no decline) up -1% from trough up less than % from trough (or stalling) 27 = 12 1 9 8 7 6 Canada South Africa Switzerland Korea Global Index Austria 27 = 12 1 9 8 7 6 Australia Sweden USA Global Index 27 = 12 1 9 8 7 6 Denmark Finland France UK Ireland Italy Netherlands New Zealand Norway Czech Republic Hungary Poland Germany 4 4 4 Portugal Belgium 3 3 3 Spain Japan Source: IPD, KTI Global Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 9
Switzerland Korea South Africa Austria Denmark Finland Belgium Germany Italy Netherlands Portugal Canada France Sweden New Zealand Australia Norway Poland Japan Czech Republic Spain IPD Global Index Hungary United States UK Ireland Valuation peaks & troughs differ across countries % pa 2 2 1 Historic peak year (since 2) * Historic trough year (since 2) * 212 - - -1-2 -2-3 -3-4 Source: IPD, KTI * Or from index inception if later than 2 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com
Ireland South Africa New Zealand Australia Poland Czech Republic Finland Korea Canada Italy Belgium Portugal Norway UK United States Hungary Spain IPD Global Index France Netherlands Japan Germany Sweden Austria Denmark Switzerland Income weakening in much of Europe % 11pa 9 Range of income returns since 2* 212 income return 8 7 6 4 3 Source: IPD, KTI * Or from index inception if later than 2 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 11
South Africa Canada USA Australia New Zealand Global Korea Switzerland Sweden Poland France Austria Finland Norway Czech Republic Germany Pan European Denmark Japan Belgium UK Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal Hungary Spain Dispersion of sector performance 2 1 Retail Office Industrial Residential All Property % pa - - Source: IPD, KTI 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 12
Calgary CANADA Toronto Montreal Vancouver San Francisco Houston Seattle Denver San Diego Boston Portland Atlanta UNITED STATES Miami Dallas New York Los Angeles Chicago Minneapolis Washington DC Perth Brisbane Melbourne AUSTRALIA Sydney London Manchester UNITED KINGDOM Edinburgh Birmingham Munich Hamburg GERMANY Dusseldorf Frankfurt Berlin.6.2 1.6 2.4 3.4 3.2 4.4 6.4.7. 6.4 7.6 9.6 9.3 9.3 12. 11.2 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.3 11..7.4.4.2 9.6 9.4 8.8 8.2 14.1 13.8 13.2 13.7 16. 19. 18. Dispersion evident at city level too % pa Capital growth 2 Income return Total return Country average 2 1 Source: IPD, KTI 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 13
Real Estate Equities Bonds Real Estate Equities Bonds Real Estate Equities Bonds Other Asset Class Comparison % pa 1 Year 3 Years Years 2 16.4 1 7.4 6.3 8.8 7. 6.6 6.2 2.4 -.9 Source: IPD, KTI, MSCI, JP Morgan 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 14
South Af rica Canada USA Australia New Zealand Global Korea Switzerland Sweden Poland France Austria Finland Norway Czech Republic Germany Pan European Denmark Japan Belgium UK Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal Hungary Spain Other Asset Class Comparison by country % pa Real Estate Equities Bonds 3 3 2 2 1 - Source: IPD, KTI, MSCI, JP Morgan 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 1
Canada USA South Af rica Australia Sweden Global UK France New Zealand Korea Poland Switzerland Norway Pan European Finland Austria Czech Republic Germany Denmark Belgium Italy Netherlands Japan Portugal Spain Hungary Ireland Other Asset Class Comparison by country 3 year annualised % pa Real Estate Equities Bonds 2 1 - - Source: IPD, KTI, MSCI, JP Morgan 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 16
REGISTER 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 17
Thank you... IPD, 1 St. John s Lane, London, EC1M 4BL, UK Tel: +44 ()2 7336 92 ipd.com Intellectual Property Rights and use of IPD statistics as benchmarks Whether in the public domain or otherwise, IPD's statistics are the intellectual property of Investment Property Databank Limited. It is not permissible to use data drawn from this presentation as benchmarks. Investment Property Databank Limited (IPD) 213. Database Right, Investment Property Databank Limited (IPD) 213. All rights conferred by law of copyright and by virtue of international conventions are reserved by IPD. 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 18