Chapter 6 Transportation Improvements & Financial Plan

Chapter 6 Transportation Improvements & Financial Plan Introduction Up to this point, this plan has provided a regional profile (the population, employment, and commuting patterns) of the RTPO and MPO areas; established the transportation vision as well as laid out goals, policies, and strategies to help achieve it; and described the existing regional transportation system and priorities, concerns, and general travel behaviors of the public. Now the focus of the plan shifts towards the future of the regional transportation system from 2019 through 2045. This chapter begins the discussion by presenting transportation improvements proposed and a financial plan to document fiscal constraint as well as help people realize how limited the available revenue is compared with all the needs. Chapter 7 will then discuss topics regarding plan implementation that are relevant as transportation improvements are designed and constructed. Chapter 8 provides an initial analysis of the regional transportation system. In addition, Chapter 8 also includes a brief description of what the future transportation system may look like and more importantly the challenges, successes, and opportunities the future may present. Transportation Improvements Federal and state regulations governing metropolitan and regional transportation plans require future transportation facilities, services, or programs be included in the plan. To meet these requirements and provide a guide to help advance the goals, policies, and strategies of this plan, a list of transportation improvements was developed. This list was primarily assembled using submissions from cities, counties, transit agencies, and WSDOT regions. Agencies were asked to submit improvements meeting the definition of regionally significant and/or would be eligible for, and likely would be completed with, Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) or Federal Transit Administration (FTA) funds. See the sidebar on the next page for the definition of a regionally significant improvement. It is important to note that most, but not all, improvements included in this chapter are regionally significant. A bicycle or pedestrian improvement such as a sidewalk may not necessarily be regionally significant, but could possibly be awarded Surface Transportation Block Grant Program Set Aside (Transportation Alternatives) funds. By submission of a non-regionally significant transportation improvement, local agencies were indicating federal funding could possibly be used. CWCOG added to the transportation improvements list by reviewing city and county six-year Transportation Improvement Programs, WSDOT s Eight Year Plan, past Regional Transportation Plans, and the Cowlitz-Wahkiakum Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS). The completed list was reviewed and revised with help from technical advisory committees and planning partners. Agencies were asked to identify the funding status of each improvement as either funded, planned, or unfunded. Below are descriptions agencies were given to guide them to identifying the correct funding status. Funded improvements have secure funding and are ready to proceed with design, environmental approvals, right-of-way acquisition, and/or construction. Southwest Washington RTPO 97

A Regionally Significant Improvement is on a facility which serves regional transportation needs (such as access to and from the area outside of the region; major activity centers in the region; major planned developments such as new retail malls, sports complexes, or employment centers; or transportation terminals) and would normally be included in the modeling of a metropolitan area s transportation network. At a minimum, this includes all principal arterial highways and all fixed guide way transit facilities that offer an alternative to regional highway travel. (from the Code of Federal Regulations) those that function as an integrated regional transportation system, giving emphasis to those facilities, services, and programs that exhibit one or more of the following characteristics: 1) Crosses member county lines; 2) Is or will be used by a significant number of people who live or work outside the county in which the facility, service, or project is located; 3) Significant impacts are expected to be felt in more than one county; 4) Potentially adverse impacts of the facility, service, program, or project can be better avoided or mitigated through adherence to regional policies; 5) Transportation needs addressed by a project have been identified by the regional transportation planning process and the remedy is deemed to have regional significance; and 6) Provides for system continuity. (from the Revised Code of Washington) Planned improvements do not have secure funds, but the agency reasonably expects the funding to be available. Unfunded improvements do not have secure funds and the agency has no reasonable expectation for when, or if, funds could become available. A Regional Transportation Plan must be fiscally constrained as specified in federal and state requirements. Fiscally constrained means all funding needed to complete the improvement is reasonably expected to be available. All WSDOT funded and planned improvements are considered fiscally constrained since each one is included in the WSDOT Eight Year Plan. As estimated revenues were compiled out to 2045 it became clear the total cost of funded and planned improvements for local agencies was much higher than estimated revenues. For this reason, the only considers funded improvements for local agencies to have funding that is reasonably expected to be available. It is important to note, future funding for planned and unfunded improvements should be available, but there will not be enough for all planned and unfunded improvements. WSDOT is faced with this same problem in meeting needs within the region. Across the RTPO, WSDOT estimated their pavement, bridges, and guardrails maintenance could be close to $104 million over ten years. Future dialogue will be needed moving forward, especially at the regional and local levels, to further prioritize the long list of planned and unfunded improvements so future Regional Transportation Plans may also consider planned improvements for local agencies to also be fiscally constrained. For now, an improvement labeled planned or unfunded provides a basic prioritization. Planned improvements should be considered before unfunded. Unfunded improvements should be considered last. As the future unfolds and needs change an unfunded improvement (or one never envisioned) may become a high priority. Tables 6-1 and 6-2 provide a summary of the total number, cost, and funding status of the transportation improvements list. Southwest Washington RTPO 98

Local Agencies' Transportation Improvements Summary Fiscally Constrained Not Fiscally Constrained How How Many Estimated Costs for Estimated Costs How Many Estimated Costs for How Many Are Estimated Costs for Area Many? Are Funded? Funded (2018 $) for Funded (YOE $) Are Planned? Planned (2018 $) Unfunded? Unfunded (2018 $) MPO/RTPO Area 300 63 $118,809,062 $125,177,228 199 $479,897,230 38 $640,710,000 Cowlitz County 60 26 $73,575,986 $77,519,659 22 $110,830,300 12 $411,750,000 County 151 16 $21,614,150 $22,772,668 117 $247,991,959 18 $184,000,000 Lewis County 44 10 $9,708,586 $10,228,966 29 $96,500,971 5 $34,000,000 Pacific County 31 6 $3,282,000 $3,457,915 22 $19,918,000 3 $10,960,000 Wahkiakum County Rainier, Oregon Area 13 4 $1,547,010 $1,629,930 9 $4,656,000 0 $0 1 1 $9,081,330 $9,568,089 0 $0 0 $0 Notes: (1) YOE = Year of Expenditure; (2) Funded Improvements are those scheduled for completion in 2019 or later, some of them may currently be underway such as in design. Table 6-1: Local Agencies Transportation Improvements Summary Area MPO/RTPO Planning Area Olympic Region South Central Region Southwest Region How Many? How Many Are Funded or Planned? WSDOT Transportation Improvements Summary Fiscally Constrained Estimated Costs for Funded / Planned (2018 $) Estimated Costs for Funded / Planned (YOE $) How Many Are Unfunded? Not Fiscally Constrained Estimated Costs for Unfunded (2018 $) 172 166 $863,818,883 $992,056,637 6 $68,000,000 47 47 $261,562,357 $298,074,516 0 $0 8 5 $9,548,910 $10,423,784 3 $27,700,000 117 114 $592,707,616 $683,558,338 3 $40,300,000 Notes: (1) YOE = Year of Expenditure; (2) Funded Improvements are those scheduled for completion in 2019 or later, some of them may currently be underway such as in design. Table 6-2: WSDOT Transportation Improvements Summary Southwest Washington RTPO 99

There are 472 improvements included in this chapter from more than 30 different agencies across the entire MPO and RTPO planning areas. About 48% of the improvements are fiscally constrained. The estimated costs of the fiscally constrained improvements are over $960 million in current 2018 dollars (slightly more than $1.1 billion in year of expenditure dollars). Year of expenditure refers to costs that are adjusted for inflation. This plan calculated the year of expenditure costs by inflating the 2018 dollars using the Construction Cost Index (CCI) published by WSDOT. WSDOT funded and planned improvements have estimated completions between 2019 and 2037. Funded improvements for local agencies have estimated completions between 2019 and 2022. All of the improvements (funded, planned, or unfunded) address identified needs leading to improvements to the regional transportation system. Each one has been deemed consistent with the goals and policies in Chapter 3. In these times of very limited revenue for transportation improvements, it is important each project fulfills a need. After reviewing the list of improvements, each one has been confirmed to fit into one or more of the following categories: 1) Safety; 2) Preservation, Maintenance, or Improved Efficiency; 3) Expansion or Maintenance of the Active or Public Transportation Systems; 4) System Resiliency; and/or 5) Economic Development. It is also important only the most cost-effective improvements are implemented as least cost planning requires per Washington State law (Revised Code of Washington 47.80.023). All of the fiscally constrained improvements were validated as being the most cost-effective solution available to resolve the immediate need. As planned and unfunded improvements move forward and more specific details are known, the MPO, RTPO, WSDOT, and local agencies will ensure project delivery is done in the most cost-effective manner. good repair. WSDOT preservation work is prioritized based on several factors including, but not limited to, the expected life cycle and the current condition of the asset. As conditions change and new needs are identified, re-prioritization will occur on a regular basis. The result of reprioritization is that the scheduled delivery for improvements may vary. Re-prioritization of identified needs can also change improvements that move forward for local agencies. In the next six subsections are maps showing the approximate locations of transportation improvements presented in this chapter. Each point or line feature on the map has a label that can be used to look up additional information in tables in the Chapter 6 Appendix. The 166 WSDOT funded or planned improvements represent preservation work to keep existing transportation assets (including items such as pavement, bridges, other structures, etc.) in a state of Southwest Washington RTPO 100

Cowlitz County Figure 6-1: Southwest Washington Regional Transportation Planning Organization Regional Transportation Plan Improvement List Cowlitz County Southwest Washington RTPO 101

County Figure 6-2: Southwest Washington Regional Transportation Planning Organization Regional Transportation Plan Improvement List West County Southwest Washington RTPO 102

Figure 6-3: Southwest Washington Regional Transportation Planning Organization Regional Transportation Plan Improvement List East Southwest Washington RTPO 103

Lewis County Figure 6-4: Southwest Washington Regional Transportation Planning Organization Regional Transportation Plan Improvement List West Lewis County Southwest Washington RTPO 104

Figure 6-5: Southwest Washington Regional Transportation Planning Organization Regional Transportation Plan Improvement List East Lewis County Southwest Washington RTPO 105

Pacific County Figure 6-6: Southwest Washington Regional Transportation Planning Organization Regional Transportation Plan Improvement List Pacific County Southwest Washington RTPO 106

Wahkiakum County Figure 6-7: Southwest Washington Regional Transportation Planning Organization Regional Transportation Plan Improvement List Wahkiakum County Southwest Washington RTPO 107

Longview-Kelso-Rainier MPO Figure 6-8: Longview-Kelso-Rainier Metropolitan Planning Organization Regional Transportation Plan Improvement List Southwest Washington RTPO 108

Regional Unfunded Needs A significant number of unfunded transportation improvements were discussed while developing this plan, and many of them would cost tens or up to hundreds of millions of dollars. With transportation revenues being so limited and many lower cost improvements needing funding, the decision was made to not include these types of high cost, unfunded improvements on the maps in this chapter or lists in the Chapter 6 Appendix. These high dollar transportation improvements were instead generalized as an unfunded need to document them as an important regional priority for further study. This approach promoted a least cost planning methodology where the most cost-effective solution could be identified after further study before deciding whether moving ahead with implementation is possible. Table 6-3 identifies all of the unfunded needs identified through development of this plan. These unfunded needs also document conceptual transportation improvements for more detailed scoping before implementation. Southwest Washington RTPO 109

County Name Description Cowlitz Lower Columbia River Washington-Oregon Connections A study to consider replacement of the Lewis & Clark Bridge and/or other locations for future connectivity between Washington and Oregon. Possible topics of a study would likely be the future of the Lewis & Clark Bridge, whether there should be other bridges, or whether ferries are an option in some locations. Cowlitz SR 432 Corridor Additional study to continue looking into all of the issues on the whole SR 432 corridor and to address additional rail crossings along with considerations for the potential of moving rail traffic to the Patriot Rail corridor. Cowlitz Six Rivers Trail A report on the potential Six Rivers Trail (a north-south trail through Cowlitz County connecting Lewis County to Clark County) is due to be completed by the end of 2018. This initial report will establish the vision for the entire trail and provide options for implementation in phases. Future phases may also include expanding the trail north and south to connect to other trails. Cowlitz Future Use of the Former Patriot Rail Corridor A planning study to determine the future use of the soon to be abandoned (or rail banked) rail right-of-way in Longview, Washington (north of Ocean Beach Highway). A rails-to-trails project has been the subject of current discussions, but multiple uses may need to be considered. These uses include a rails-to-trails path, local access road, and retention of the rail lines for emergency scenarios. Cowlitz Allen Street Interchange A study to determine needs leading to least cost improvement options for the Exit 39/Allen Street interchange in Kelso, Washington. Cowlitz Exit 32 (Kalama River Road) Interchange Modernization A study of needs leading to least cost improvement options for the Exit 32 interchange north of Kalama, Washington. Cowlitz Interstate 5 North of Exit 21 Traffic Improvements Including Alternatives at Scott Avenue The City of Woodland has a funded project awarded Surface Transportation Block Grant Program dollars by the CWCOG and other funds to study and determine the best solution to traffic issues in the area around Exit 21 in the city. Once this funded project is complete and a set of actions at Exit 21 is identified, it is very probable that traffic movement north and south of Exit 21 will continue to be a major unresolved issue. An additional study is anticipated to determine least cost, practical solution approaches to help alleviate traffic concerns. Significant concerns expressed by the community in previous studies has been emergency vehicle access across Interstate 5 with a growing need for improvements south of Woodland connecting to Interstate 5. Cowlitz Interstate 5 Alternate Freight Routes Replacement of US 101 Deficient Bridges Between Cosmospolis and Hoquiam A study to consider potential Interstate 5 alternative routes to support flow of freight and other traffic along the corridor in times of emergency conditions such as slides that close the interstate. Study to address bridges that need upgrades, stabilization, or replacement and special attention on continuing to study what the least cost, practical solutions alternates is for the Simpson Avenue bridge. Southwest Washington RTPO 110

Truck Route Alternate Corridor Between Aberdeen and Hoquiam. SR 108/SR 8 Intersection Schouweiler Road Intersection (Elma) Keys Road Intersection (Satsop) Chehalis Tribe Reservation Shared-Use Trail Chehalis Tribe US 12 Corridor Safety Study Implementation US 12/Sargent Boulevard Turning Movements US 12 at Junction City Bicycle Crossing US 12 in Aberdeen Transit Bus Pullouts East Aberdeen Mobility Project US 12 Park and Ride US 12 Pedestrian and Bicycle Facilities Upgrades/Extensions US 101/SR 109 Intersection Improvements and Signage US 101 Cosmospolis to Hoquiam Pedestrian Safety Riverside Bridge Lighting Improvements An alternate truck route corridor from SR 109/SR 109 Spur intersection in Hoquiam to the US 101/Chehalis Street intersection in Aberdeen is an important freight mobility issue in County. A study would help determine a least cost approach for establishment of an alternative truck route corridor. A study to determine least cost improvements for the SR 108/SR 8 in McCleary including whether a formal interchange could be established. A study to determine least cost improvements for the Schouweiler Road Intersection in Elma including whether a formal interchange could be established. A study to determine least cost improvements for the Keys Road Intersection near Satsop Business Park including whether a formal interchange could be established. A study of a potential shared-use trail on the Chehalis Reservation and how a trail crossing could be implemented at US 12/Anderson Road. A study to determine the best way to proceed with implementing the tribe's US 12 Corridor Safety Study report. A study to determine the best solutions for westbound traffic on US 12 turning onto Sargent Boulevard. A study to determine how to implement a bicycle crossing of US 12 at Junction City to connect with the waterfront trail. A study for how to implement transit bus pullouts on the north side of US 12/South Street to South Fleet Street. A report was completed in April 2015 with options for dealing with the at-grade rail crossings in East Aberdeen. The need is to further evaluate the options including whether a roundabout at the US 12/South Newell Street and US 12/South Chehalis Street intersections with ramps at each intersection over the rail line is the most cost effective approach. Study how to best implement a plan for park and ride lots on US 12 at Central Park, Satsop, and Brady. A study is needed to determine pedestrian and bicycle facilities on the US 12 corridor that need safety upgrades and where some could be extended to connect with other trails for increased intermodal travel. A study to determine how the US 101/SR 109 intersection could be improved, including possible double left turn lanes, and how wayfinding signage could be implemented. Develop a plan to complete missing sidewalk segments on the corridor. Determine how lighting could be implemented on the bridge for vehicle and pedestrian safety. Southwest Washington RTPO 111

Lewis Lewis SR 105 in South Aberdeen Bicycle and Pedestrian Improvements Centralia and Chehalis Bicycle and Pedestrian Improvements Southbound Collector- Distributer Lane Between Harrison Avenue and Interstate 5 Study to determine feasibility and how to implement a road diet on SR 105 in the vicinity of the Shoppes at Riverside and College that would make room for bike lanes, sidewalk, curb, and gutter. A study to determine a plan for implementing bicycle/pedestrian paths that would connect Harrison Avenue with Airport Road and connect Louisiana Avenue with the Willapa Hills Trail. A study to evaluate the cost effectiveness of a southbound collector-distributer lane between Harrison Avenue and Interstate 5. This type of improvement would be a piece of the larger North Lewis County Industrial Access (NLCIA). The design work for the NLCIA is on the funded improvements list. The future construction for the NLCIA is on the planned improvements list. Lewis Fish Barrier Culverts Study how to best address improvements at many fish barrier culverts throughtout the county. Lewis Interstate 5 Widening A study to consider whether widening to 3 lanes between 13th Street and Blakeslee Junction is a least cost, practical solutions approach to improve Interstate 5 through Chehalis. Pacific Pacific Pacific County Trail-Route Plan Implementation Freight Mobility Improvements Pacific County Economic Development Council has developed a Trail-Route Plan to establish the vision of connecting the dots between the existing Discovery Trail and Willapa Hills Trail and increasing the quality and quantity of visitor/resident use. A draft version of this route plan, dated November 2018, was available at the time this Regional Transportation Plan was prepared, but in the near future the route plan should be in a final, adopted form. The unfunded need is to further study and scope potential projects, develop estimated costs, and determine how best to implement these trails in small, cost effective phases as funding becomes available. The Pacific County Trail-Route Plan describes the following trails: Cape Shoalwater Trail-Route, Willapa Hills Trail-Route, Willapa Bay Trail-Route, Ocean Beach Trail-Route, Columbia Discovery Trail-Route, Discovery Trail, North Beach Trail-Route, Naselle Loop Trail-Route, and Ocean River Beach Trail- Loop. In order to improve freight mobility, further improvements and maintenance needs to be done to the channel. A study to determine the cost, feasibility, funding sources, and least cost alternative. Pacific Port Airport Improvements A study to look at the possibility of improvements to the port-owned airports in Pacific County. Pacific Pacific Pacific Transit Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) Electric Vehicle (EV) Charger Installations on US 101 Corridor State Route Corridor Improvements in Pacific County Determine the feasibility and costs associated with developing a regional transit intelligent transportation system allowing all the transit systems in the five-county region to be connected. Continue to pursue funding for installation of EV chargers along US 101. There is interest for corridor studies to determine current needs regarding improvements to the following corridors in Pacific County: US 101 South, US 101 North, SR 6, and SR 105. For the US 101 North corridor, an alternative route around South Bend should be studied further as well. Southwest Washington RTPO 112

Wahkiakum Wahkiakum Electric Vehicle (EV) Charger Installations on SR 4 Corridor Ferry Operations Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) Wahkiakum State Routes 4 and 409 Improvements Cowlitz / Lewis All Counties Mount St. Helens Tourism Enhancement Feasibility Bicycle and Pedestrian Short-Term Top Priorities A study to determine the feasibility and costs of EV chargers along SR 4 to support visitor travel in the region. Determine the feasibility and costs associated with ITS facilities to let the public know the current status of ferry operations. Having information displayed on an electronic sign, or available through a smartphone app, would ensure people do not drive across Puget Island to the ferry dock only to find out the ferry is not available. There is a need to study and determine least cost alternatives to improving the two state routes in Wahkiakum County. Regarding SR 4, there is a need to study the feasibility of 3 potential improvements: 1) An alternative route to Cowlitz County; 2) A bicycle route along SR 4; and 3) A pedestrian route to Skamokawa along the highway. In terms of SR 409, there is a need to also study the feasibility of 3 potential improvements: 1) Improvements to the SR 409/Columbia Street intersection; 2) Development of pedestrian approaches to the SR 409 bridge; and 3) Replacement of the SR 409 bridge. Explore the possibility of establishing a connection between Coldwater Lake (SR 504) and Riffe Lake (US 12) to better determine its feasibility, as well as to gauge potential economic and environmental impacts. This concept has been discussed for many years as a way to enhance the Mount St. Helens tourist experience and was included in the May 2015 Fire and Ice Scenic Loop Management Plan. Local Agencies will continue to study and explore feasibility of needs identified in the Bicycle and Pedestrian Assessment (dated 7/19/2016) and available on the CWCOG website (www.cwcog.org) as other road improvements are implemented. Table 6-3: Regional Unfunded Needs Southwest Washington RTPO 113

Financial Plan At this point the transportation improvements across the MPO and RTPO regions have been presented. This list of transportation improvements provides a view of the total estimated costs, but there needs to be an understanding of estimated revenues before this plan can be determined to be fiscally constrained. Both federal and state requirements require a financial plan to document fiscal constraint. The financial plan provides an estimate of revenues that could reasonably be available in the future. Table 6-4 provides a summarized Financial Plan for local agencies with estimates of local, state, and federal transportation revenues. The Financial Plan includes an estimate of revenues for the portion of the MPO and all of the RTPO in Washington first followed by the small portion of the MPO in Oregon. The revenue estimates cover 2019 2045. A detailed list of methods and assumptions used in creating these revenue estimates is available in Table 6A-13 in the Chapter 6 Appendix. There is also an additional table in the Chapter 6 Appendix with a list of current funding sources for transportation improvements. A few points about the Financial Plan. 1) Local agencies are estimated to have a little more than $856 million in revenue for improvements to the regional transportation system between 2019 and 2045 with about $149 million estimated for the first four years (2019-2022). the planned or unfunded improvements in this plan by 2045. The few planned or unfunded improvements included in this plan for agencies in Lewis, Pacific, and Wahkiakum Counties could be completed by 2045 with delayed implementation of each one over the next 27 years as revenue is available. The bottom line is the transportation improvements listed in this plan are likely only a start of what will be needed in the future, but the current estimate for revenue would barely, or not even cover, the planned and unfunded improvements list as it exists today. 3) The estimate of state funds available to local agencies through grant programs could be too high especially for 2029 2045 given the large percentage of debt service Washington State is facing in the future. This issue is one that should be tracked, revisited, and adjusted in future updates to the Regional Transportation Plan. 4) No local agency is required to contribute funding to any transportation improvements outside of their jurisdictional boundaries. 5) No revenue estimates were included for WSDOT in this Financial Plan. 2) The estimate of revenues for local agencies for 2023 2045 is a little more than $707 million with most of the estimate attributed to local agencies in Cowlitz,, and Lewis Counties. The portion of this $707 million for agencies in Cowlitz and Counties, $331 million and $153 million respectfully, would not be enough to complete all of Southwest Washington RTPO 114

Washington Cowlitz County/MPO County Lewis County Pacific County Wahkiakum County (A) City/Town/County Local Funds 2019-2022 $12,568,536 See Note #1 $7,965,682 $3,958,106 See Note #1 2023-2028 $18,852,804 See Note #1 $11,948,523 $5,937,159 See Note #1 2029-2045 $53,793,884 See Note #1 $34,093,467 $16,940,866 See Note #1 (B) Metropolitan Transit Local Funds [RiverCities Transit Sales Tax] 2019-2022 $15,752,056 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable 2023-2028 $25,458,858 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable 2029-2045 $85,804,552 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable (C) Ports/Non-Metropolitan Transit Local Funds 2019-2022 $19,262,941 $4,660,591 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable 2023-2028 Not Applicable $246,150 $7,322,736 Not Applicable Not Applicable (D) State Funds [for local projects] 2019-2022 $9,639,754 $7,183,410 $3,959,215 $3,641,132 $941,312 2023-2028 $14,459,632 $10,775,114 $5,938,822 $5,461,697 $1,411,968 2029-2045 $41,229,571 $30,723,697 $16,933,701 $15,573,249 $4,026,026 (E) Surface Transportation Block Grant Program 2019-2022 $5,462,796 $4,540,449 $3,973,271 $973,191 $475,206 2023-2028 $8,380,371 $6,965,416 $6,095,319 $1,492,954 $729,005 2029-2045 $24,011,704 $19,957,532 $17,464,503 $4,277,658 $2,088,767 (F) Surface Transportation Block Grant Program Set-Aside [Transportation Alternatives] Regionwide 2019-2022 $1,259,203 2023-2028 $1,931,719 2029-2045 $5,534,823 (G) FTA 5307 [RiverCities Transit] 2019-2022 $4,699,599 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable 2023-2028 $7,209,566 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable 2029-2045 $20,657,077 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable (H) Other Federal Funds [Common Funds (Bridge, Safety, Safe Routes to Schools, Public Lands Highway)] 2019-2022 $5,556,280 $14,757,830 $7,459,590 $972,573 $1,136,489 2023-2028 $8,334,420 $22,136,745 $11,189,386 $1,458,859 $1,704,734 2029-2045 $23,614,190 $62,720,779 $31,703,259 $4,133,434 $4,830,080 Southwest Washington RTPO 115

SUBTOTAL: Estimated Local Agency Revenues by County/Area ['A' + 'B' + 'C' + 'D' + 'E' + 'G' + 'H'] 2019-2022 $72,941,962 $31,142,280 $23,357,758 $9,545,001 $2,553,008 2023-2028 $82,695,651 $40,123,426 $42,494,786 $14,350,669 $3,845,707 2029-2045 $249,110,978 $113,402,008 $100,194,929 $40,925,206 $10,944,873 TOTAL: Estimated Local Agency Revenue for Regional Transportation System Improvements [Subtotals for Each County/Area + 'F'] 2019-2022 $140,799,212 2023-2028 $185,441,957 2029-2045 $520,112,818 Oregon (A) 'A' Street Rail Safety Project 2019-2022 $8,218,089 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable (B) Surface Transportation Block Grant Program [Oregon] 2019-2022 $93,505 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable 2023-2028 $143,444 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable 2029-2045 $411,000 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable (C) FTA 5307 [Allocated to CWCOG for Oregon portion of MPA] 2019-2022 $179,247 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable 2023-2028 $274,979 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable 2029-2045 $787,880 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable TOTAL: Estimated Local Agency Revenue for Regional Transportation System Improvements ['A' + 'B' + 'C'] 2019-2022 $8,490,841 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable 2023-2028 $418,423 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable 2029-2045 $1,198,880 Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Not Applicable Note: Please refer to the Financial Plan methods and assumptions documentation in the Chapter 6 Appendix (item #4). Table 6-4: Financial Plan (Revenue Estimates) for Local Agencies Southwest Washington RTPO 116

Fiscal Constraint At this point both the estimated costs and revenues for future improvements to the regional transportation system have been discussed. Using this information, the fiscal constraint status can be evaluated. This discussion only looks at local agencies. The total estimated costs for local agencies funded improvements included in this plan (a total of 63 improvements) is about $125,177,228. As a reminder, only funded improvements are considered fiscally constrained. This estimated cost is for the year of expenditure so it factors in inflation. The 63 funded improvements are also estimated to be complete within the first four years of the planning period (2019 2022). For local agencies, the total estimated revenues reasonably expected to be available within the first four years (2019 2022) are about $140,799,212 (in Washington) and about $8,490,841 (in Oregon) for a cumulative amount of $149,290,053. Generally, since the estimated revenues of about $149 million for 2019 2022 are greater than the estimated costs of about $125 million for the same time period; the funded improvements are documented as being fiscally constrained. Table 6-5 shows the comparison of estimated costs to estimated revenues regionwide, and by area, to fully document the fiscal constraint status of this plan. The table also shows the total costs that have already been covered by allocations prior to 2019 and this reduces the estimated costs that need to be paid for with future revenue estimates. Area Estimated Revenues for 2019-2022 (A) Local Agencies' Fiscal Constraint Summary Estimated YOE Project Costs for 2019-2022 [Funded Only] (B) Project Costs Costs Covered by Previous Allocations (C) Estimated Project Costs Needing to be Covered (D) Revenues (A) Costs (D) MPO/RTPO Planning Area $149,290,053 $125,177,228 $50,159,725 $75,017,503 Yes Cowlitz County $72,941,962 $77,519,659 $30,672,300 $46,847,359 Yes County $31,142,280 $22,772,668 $12,550,882 $10,221,786 Yes Lewis County $23,357,758 $10,228,966 $4,530,670 $5,698,296 Yes Pacific County $9,545,001 $3,457,915 $739,000 $2,718,915 Yes Wahkiakum County Rainier, Oregon Area $2,553,008 $1,629,930 $316,873 $1,313,057 Yes $8,490,841 $9,568,089 $1,350,000 $8,218,089 Yes Table 6-5: Fiscal Constraint Summary (Local Agencies) Southwest Washington RTPO 117

As of November 2018, WSDOT plans to spend more than $863 million (in current 2018 dollars) and $992 million (in year of expenditure dollars) across the MPO and RTPO regions on transportation improvements with estimated completions between 2019 and 2037. No financial estimates for state agencies were included earlier in this chapter since WSDOT has responsibility to manage its own revenue sources. Further, based on WSDOT managing its own revenue sources, this plan relies on them to determine fiscal constraint for their transportation improvements. WSDOT confirmed that by inclusion in their Eight Year Plan all funded and planned improvements are fiscally constrained. Southwest Washington RTPO 118