Multi-asset technical strategies Week of 20 th November Mark Sturdy. Authorised and regulated by the FSA. Summary. Currencies. Stocks.

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Transcription:

+ Standard S&P 500 & Poors 500 + European EuroStoxx DJ 50 Stoxx 50 + Ten year Year US Treasury treasury TNote note Note + Ten year Year Euro German Bund Bund + Ten UK Gilt year Japanese Bond + Dollar Oil rates + Euribor Gold rates + Sterling rates Multi-asset technical strategies Week of 20 th November Disclaimer 2018 Mark Sturdy Authorised and regulated by the FSA

summary Very powerful signals arise when the charts of any one asset are aligned in all three time frames - see highlights Long-term BEAR Euro Medium-term BEAR Euro Short-term FLAT Euro Long-term BEAR Sterling Medium-term BEAR Sterling Short-term FLAT Sterling Long-term BEAR Yen Medium-term FLAT Yen Short-term FLAT Yen Long-term FLAT Euro Medium-term FLAT Euro Short-term FLAT Euro + Standard S&P 500 & Poors 500 + European EuroStoxx DJ 50 Stoxx 50 Long-term BULL Medium-term FLAT Short-term FLAT Long-term BEAR Medium-term FLAT Short-term FLAT Long-term BULL Medium-term FLAT Short-term FLAT Long-term BULL Medium-term FLAT Short-term FLAT + Ten year Year US Treasury TNote Note + Ten year Year Euro German Bund Bund + Ten UK Gilt year Japanese Bond Long-term BEAR Medium-term BEAR Short-term FLAT Long-term FLAT Medium-term FLAT Short-term FLAT Long-term BEAR Medium-term BEAR Short-term FLAT + Dollar Oil rates + Euribor Gold rates Long-term BULL Medium-term BULL Short-term FLAT Long-term FLAT Medium-term FLAT Short-term FLAT

: Dollar Euro CURRENCIES: The Dollar is still strong against the Yen with a further bull trigger close by. There was some weakness in the Dollar against the Euro late on in the week, but not enough to convince. An uneasy equilibrium was evidenced against the Sterling. EuroDollar 1.60 1.55 Dollar Euro monthly spot cash chart 1.50 + European EuroStoxx DJ 50 Stoxx 50 1.2328 1.1638 1.1875 1.2040 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 These powerful resistances above the market at 1.15 and above look to have reversed or at least halted the bear Dollar/bull Euro market The pressure is on the Euro now. We favour the Dollar. + Ten year Year US Treasury TNote Note + Ten year Year Euro German Bund Bund 1.10 + Ten UK Gilt year Japanese Bond 1.05 + Dollar Oil rates + Euribor Gold rates 05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1.00

: Dollar Euro EuroDollar 1.1710 1.1614 1.1297 1.0456 1.0339 A S O N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 A M J J A S O N D 2018 A M J J A S O N D 201 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.26 1.25 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.09 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 Dollar Euro weekly spot cash chart So the support from the Prior Highs looks as if it has failed. There are wild swings, but on the whole the Dollar looks set to gain strength. Note though, the FAILED break beneath 1.1297 beginning the next leg down (strengthening Dollar). Wait for a break EuroDollar 1.180 Dollar Euro spot cash chart daily chart... 1.175 1.170 + Ten Year US TNote + Ten Year German Bund 1.165 1.160 1.155 Short-term, the momentum is unclear. 1.1297 1.1429 Low 1.150 1.145 1.140 1.135 1.130 Note the break of the diagonal downtrend resistance and the retesting of the horizontal resistance. 1.125 1.120 1.115 This bounce back above the Prior Low was disappointing for the Dollar bulls. 30 6 August 13 20 27 3 10 September 17 24 1 8 October 15 22 29 5 12 November 19 26 3 D

: Dollar Sterling British Pound 2.15 2.10 2.05 2.00 1.95 1.90 1.85 1.80 1.75 Dollar Sterling Monthly spot cash chart All the Prior Pivotal lows of 1993, 2001, 2008 and 2016 have acted as good resistance. A massive Multiple Top has formed. 1.4063 1.3677 1.3498 50.0% 38.2% 61.8% 1.70 1.65 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 The market rallied back deep into the band of resistance as far as the 50% Fibonacci resistance but failed there. Look more closely. 1.20 0.0% 1.15 1.10 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 + European EuroStoxx DJ 50 Stoxx 50 British Pound 2.15 2.10 2.05 2.00 1.95 Dollar Sterling Monthly spot cash LINE CHART based on closes + Ten year Year US Treasury TNote Note + Ten year Year Euro German Bund Bund + Liffe UK Gilt UK Gilt + Nymex Oil Oil + Comex Gold Gold 1.4063 1.3677 1.3498 100.0% 38.2% 1.90 1.85 1.80 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 1.40 1.35 1.30 Note here the repeated testing of the resistance band formed from low closes. It s a clear failure Look more closely still 1.2240 0.0% 1.25 1.20 1.11 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 1980 1990 2000 2010

: Dollar Sterling British Pound 1.44 1.43 Dollar Sterling weekly spot cash chart 1.42 1.41 1.40 1.39 The Double Top at the recent high was interesting BUT: 1.3656 1.3710 1.3297 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.31 1.30 1.29 1.28 1.27 the break of both the Prior High and diagonal support (and a coincident Fibonacci support) from 1.3656 was a clear sell signal for Sterling. The bull trend of the last 19 months has broken down. Now there s a range 1.2660 1.26 1.25 + European EuroStoxx DJ 50 Stoxx 50 + Ten year Year US Treasury TNote Note + Ten year Year Euro German Bund Bund + Ten UK Gilt year Japanese Bond + Dollar Oil rates + Euribor Gold rates y Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 British Pound 1.3755 1.3457 1.3297 1.415 1.410 1.405 1.400 1.395 1.390 1.385 1.380 1.375 1.370 1.365 1.360 1.355 1.350 1.345 1.340 1.335 1.330 1.325 1.320 1.315 1.310 1.305 1.300 1.295 1.290 1.285 1.280 1.275 1.270 1.265 1.260 1.255 Dollar Sterling daily spot cash chart But the rally has smashed that - now watch the range May June July August September October November

: Dollar Yen Japanese yen 150 145 Dollar Yen monthly spot cash chart 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 Note the very well-formed diagonal downtrend resistance that has been smashed. Prior Low resistances 105 100 95 90 85 The bull Dollar is set to go further. 80 75 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 70 + European EuroStoxx DJ 50 Stoxx 50 Japanese yen 120 119 118 Dollar Yen weekly spot cash chart + Ten year Year US Treasury TNote Note + Ten year Year Euro German Bund Bund + Ten UK Gilt year Japanese Bond + Dollar Oil rates + Euribor Gold rates 108.11 107.31 114.36 114.54 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 Watch the close approach to the Prior Highs at 114.36 Very encouraging for the Dollar Bulls and Yen bears. Add to the Dollar (sell the Yen) on a break up through the 114.54 level. 103 102 Wait for the break. 101 O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 100 99

: Dollar Yen 114.54 24 1 October 111.61 112.88 Japanese yen 8 15 22 29 5 November 12 19 26 3 D 114.8 114.7 114.6 114.5 114.4 114.3 114.2 114.1 114.0 113.9 113.8 113.7 113.6 113.5 113.4 113.3 113.2 113.1 113.0 112.9 112.8 112.7 112.6 112.5 112.4 112.3 112.2 112.1 112.0 111.9 111.8 111.7 111.6 111.5 111.4 111.3 111.2 111.1 Dollar Yen daily spot cash chart Note the Bull dollar is supported by the small Double Bottom, if so, there should be good support at the Horizontal. + Ten Year US TNote + Ten Year German Bund

: Sterling Euro 0.9803 Euro-British Pound 0.9412 0.95 Sterling Euro monthly spot cash chart 0.90 0.85 0.80 The last four months volatility has created a wide trading triangle. Watch the test of the lower diagonal. 0.7255 0.75 0.70 0.65 + European EuroStoxx DJ 50 Stoxx 50 + Ten year Year US Treasury TNote Note + Ten year Year Euro German Bund Bund + Ten UK Gilt year Japanese Bond + Dollar Oil rates + Euribor Gold rates 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.8302 0.9365 Euro-British Pound 0.8618 0.8967 J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 0.950 0.945 0.940 0.935 0.930 0.925 0.920 0.915 0.910 0.905 0.900 0.895 0.890 0.885 0.880 0.875 0.870 0.865 0.860 0.855 0.850 0.845 0.840 0.835 0.830 0.825 0.820 0.815 0.810 0.805 0.800 0.795 Sterling Euro weekly spot cash chart It s a range. Add on a break.

: Sterling Euro 0.9099 Euro-British Pound 0.910 Sterling Euro daily spot cash chart 0.905 0.8940 0.900 It s volatile and shapeless. 0.895 0.890 0.885 Stand back and watch the range. 0.8720 0.880 0.875 0.870 0.865 0.860 0.855 20 27 3 10 September 17 24 1 8 October 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 November D + Ten Year US TNote + Ten Year German Bund

STOCKS: The S&P still swings wildly within the long-established (over 2018) trading range. There is some slight short-term evidence of consolidation in the EuroStoxx that might in due course allow a bull retracement, which chimes with the longer-term underpinnings in the FTSE and Nikkei but watch our levels closely. : CME S&P CME Index and Options Market S&P 500 Stock Price Composite Index Future 3100 3000 2900 CME S&P 500 monthly cont. futures chart 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 The bulls remain firmly in control in the sense that there is no clear long-term breakdown. + European EuroStoxx DJ 50 Stoxx 50 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 Look closer. 1400 1300 1200 + Ten year Year US Treasury TNote Note + Ten year Year Euro German Bund Bund 1100 1000 900 + Ten UK Gilt year Japanese Bond 800 700 998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 600 500 + Dollar Oil rates + Euribor Gold rates

: CME S&P 500 CME Index and Options Market S&P 500 Stock Price Composite Index Future 3000 2950 CME S&P 500 cont weekly cont. chart 2879 High 2900 2850 2800 2750 2700 2650 The pull-back to test the Prior High at 2879 smashed it. 2600 2550 2500 2450 2400 2350 2300 2250 2200 2150 2100 2050 2000 1950 1900 Now the test of the 2016 trend line support is nigh. If that broke it would be very bearish, though a confirming close beneath that diagonal would be more convincing. 1850 1800 1750 M J J A S O N 2015 A M J J A S O N 2016 A M J A S O D 2017 A M J A S O D 2018 A M J A S O D 20 CME Index and Options Market S&P 500 Stock Price Composite Index Future 100.0% 2950 CME S&P 500 daily Dec 2018 chart + Ten Year US TNote + Ten Year German Bund 2890.70 January 2018 High 61.8% 2900 2850 2800 2750 2700 There is a wide trading range in play ( that is, 2900-2600). (It was tempting to look for a bull H&S pattern in the middle of the range, but the price action makes that look doubtful ) Stand back. 2650 0.0% 2600 2550 2018 February March April May June July August September November December

: Eurex EuroStoxx 50 + US Ten Ten Year Year US Notes TNote + Ten Year Bund German Bund 3769 Eurex EURO STOXX 50 Index Future 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Eurex EURO STOXX 50 Index Future 2645 High 3645 3172 Low 2015 A M J J A S O N D 2016 A M J J A S O N D 2017 A M J J A S O N D 2018 A M J J A S O N D 201 3769 3172 4800 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 4000 3900 3800 3700 3600 3500 3400 3300 3200 3100 3000 2900 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 3900 3850 3800 3750 3700 3650 3600 3550 3500 3450 3400 3350 3300 3250 3200 3150 3100 3050 3000 2950 2900 2850 2800 2750 2700 2650 2600 2550 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 monthly continuation futures chart The long-term condition of the market is not clear: The market has failed to push through the old 3769 High and remains looking vulnerable. But as yet there is no break beneath the Prior Low of 3172. Eurex EuroStoxx 50 weekly continuation futures chart Is this a Double Top - no completion yet. If it does convincingly get beneath 3172 then look for a minimum move down to the lows of 2018 at 2645. Watch and wait.

: Eurex EuroStoxx 50 Eurex EURO STOXX 50 Index Future 3800 3750 3700 3650 3600 3550 3500 Eurex EuroStoxx 50 daily Dec 18 futures chart The market is teetering at the bottom of the old trading range. 3150 Low 3274 3450 3400 3350 3300 3250 3200 3150 3100 3050 Wait for the break. Or watch for a break up through the 3274 resistance to reestablish the wide trading range. 3000 2950 March April May June July August September October November D + Ten Year US TNote + Ten Year German Bund

: Liffe FTSE 100 Intercontinental Exchange Europe FTSE 100 Index Future 8000 7500 7000 Liffe FTSE 100 Monthly continuation futures chart 6500 6000 5500 5000 The succession of Prior Highs (6796, 6995) has been overcome, so the market remains underpinned in a very powerfully bullish way. 4500 4000 Note that the one retest of that support led to a rapid bounce. 3500 Will the market bounce from the same level? 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 3000 + US Ten Ten Year Year US Notes TNote + Ten Year Bund German Bund High 7085 Intercontinental Exchange Europe FTSE 100 Index Future 7589 7745 6766 8100 8000 7900 7800 7700 7600 7500 7400 7300 7200 7100 7000 6900 6800 6700 Liffe FTSE 100 Weekly cont. futures chart Watch the Prior Low. A break of 6766 would suggest a break of the very long-term chart 6600 6500 6400 6300 6200 6100 6000 1145.50 1135 5900 5800 5700 5600 5500 N D 2015 A M J J A S O N D 2016 A M J J A S O N D 2017 A M J J A S O N D 2018 A M J J A S O N D 201

: Liffe FTSE 100 Intercontinental Exchange Europe FTSE 100 Index Future 7800 7750 7700 7650 7600 Liffe FTSE 100 jun18 daily futures chart 7550 7399 7419 7184 7500 7450 7400 7350 7300 7250 7200 7150 7100 7050 7000 The double bounce off 6892 has allowed the market to test the resistance from the low at 7184. That needs to be broken for the bulls to get confident. Watch closely. 6892 6950 6900 6850 6800 6750 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 28 3 10 17 July August September 24 1 8 October 15 22 29 5 12 November 19 26 3 D + Ten Year US TNote + Ten Year German Bund

: OSE Nikkei 225 18320 Osaka Exchange Nikkei 225 Full Session Index Future 20950 27000 26000 25000 24000 23000 22000 21000 20000 Nikkei 225 chart (monthly) 19000 18000 17000 16000 15000 14000 13000 The market smashed up through the Prior High 20950 and then, on pulling back, is testing that long-term support. 12000 11000 10000 (it was tested once before and bounced) 9000 8000 7000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Osaka Exchange Nikkei 225 Full Session Index Future 24170 23050 24500 24000 23500 Nikkei 225 chart (WEEKLY) 23000 + US Ten Ten Year Year US Notes TNote + Ten Year Bund German Bund 20950 22500 22000 21500 21000 20500 20000 19500 19000 18500 18000 The market s retreat from the Prior High at 24170 has been sharp and smashing the support from the 23050 suggested weakness that proved right when the diagonal was smashed. 17500 17000 16500 16000 But the major support at 20950 is still intact and should be good support. 15500 15000 14500 015 A M J J A S O N D 2016 A M J J A S O N D 2017 A M J J A S O N D 2018 A M J J A S O N D 201 14000

: OSE Nikkei 225 Osaka Exchange Nikkei 225 Full Session Index Future 24500 Nikkei 225 chart Daily Sep 18. 24000 23500 23000 22500 22000 The short-term break up through the horizontal resistance at 22030 was short-lived. 22030 21500 Stand back. 21000 18 25 1 October 9 15 22 29 5 November 12 19 26 3 Dec + Ten Year US TNote + Ten Year German Bund

BONDS: US bonds have rallied ( retraced) to a Prior High Pivot that should be closely watched. There are interesting levels in the very short-term Bunds and ( to a lesser extent) the Gilts too. The Bund is altogether less bearish than the US, so the tension between the two is fascinating. : CBOT Ten Year Notes CBT Chicago Board of Trade 10 Year US Treasury Note Composite 135.906 Bond Future 122.70 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 CBOT Ten Year Notes monthly futures continuation chart The long-standing diagonal trendline support has surely broken. 105 100 95 90 + US Ten Ten Year Year US TNotes + Ten Year Bund German Bund 85 80 75 70 65 1980 1990 2000 2010

: CBOT Ten Year Notes CBT Chicago Board of Trade 10 Year US Treasury Note Composite Bond Future 125.5 125.0 124.5 124.0 123.5 CBOT Ten Year Notes weekly futures continuation chart 123.0 Prior Low resistances 122.5 122.0 121.5 121.0 Note the completion of the bear continuation triangle. 118.32 119.07 120.5 120.0 119.5 119.0 118.5 118.0 117.5 Minimum move? Down as far as 116.50. But the market is dithering. O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 2019 CBT Chicago Board of Trade 10 Year US Treasury Note Composite Bond Future 117.0 116.5 121.0 CBOT Ten Year Notes daily Sep18 futures chart + US Ten Ten Year Year US TNotes + Ten Year Bund German Bund 120.5 120.0 That sharp rally through successive resistances has failed 119.5 Wait for greater clarity. 119.0 118.85 118.5 118.0 118.03 117.42 117.5 2018 May June July August September October November D

: Eurex Ten Year Bund Eurex Euro Bund Bond Future 160.69 170 165 Eurex Ten Year Bund monthly futures continuation chart 160.0 156.88 160 155 150 The market lacks clarity. Only a clear break of the Prior Low of 156.88 will get the bears going. 145 140 135 130 125 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Eurex Euro Bund Bond Future 171 170 169 168 167 166 Eurex Ten Year Bund weekly cont. futures Chart + US Ten Ten Year Year US Notes TNote + Ten Year Bund German Bund 165 164 163 162 The market is solidly within the drifting trading range. 161 160 159 158.73 158 157 156 155 154 153 152 151 150 149 148 147 16 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 201

: Eurex Ten Year Bund 160.85 Eurex Euro Bund Bond Future 161.33 161.5 161.0 160.5 Eurex Ten Year Bund Sep 18 Daily futures chart 160.0 158.37 159.5 159.0 158.5 158.0 157.5 A top has surely been formed but there is a lack of clarity, note a break of 161.33 would be very bullish. 157.0 156.5 156.0 155.5 155.0 154.5 30000 20000 10000 June July August September October November D x100 + Ten Year US TNote + Ten Year Bund German Bund

: Liffe UK Gilt futures Intercontinental Exchange Europe (ICE) Long Gilt Bond Future 131.55 09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Intercontinental Exchange Europe (ICE) Long Gilt Bond Future Long run bull trendline support -BROKEN 135 134 133 132 131 130 129 128 127 126 125 124 123 122 121 120 119 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 109 108 107 106 105 104 134 133 132 Liffe UK Gilt monthly futures continuation chart It looks as though the market has broken two supports horizontal and diagonal. Look closer. Liffe UK Gilt weekly continuation futures Chart 131 + US Ten Ten Year Year US Notes TNote + Ten Year Bund German Bund 120.13 130 129 128 127 126 125 124 123 122 121 120 But the medium-term price action, still within a clear downtrend, is confused. A sideways trading range. A break up through 125 or so would be very bullish. 119 118 117 Equally a sustained break beneath 120 would be very bearish. 116 115 N D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 A M J J A S O N D 2018 A M J J A S O N D 201

: Liffe UK Gilt futures Intercontinental Exchange Europe (ICE) Long Gilt Bond Future 123.11 0.0% 123.5 123.0 TSE Ten Year JGB daily June 18 chart 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 122.5 122.0 121.5 Note the rally up to the important Prior Highs if the market can break those then the bulls will be in charge. 61.8% 121.0 1 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 28 3 10 17 July August September 119.36100.0% 24 1 8 October 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 3 November D 120.5 120.0 119.5 + Ten Year US TNote + Ten Year German Bund

Commodity COMMODITIES: Oil s rapid sell-off looks to have run it s course with good support beneath the market now and the minimum move target of the original Double Top having been achieved. Gold remains within well constructed trading ranges in each time frame. : Nymex WTI Oil NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) Composite Energy Future Key Reversal 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Nymex oil monthly continuation 90 80 Massive support at $37.80 + Ten Year US TNote + Ten Year German Bund 37.61 39.99 55.24 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 70 60 50 40 30 And note too the completed H&S bull reversal... Minimum move? Up to and beyond $100. But the Key reversal adding a good deal of bear impetus look more closely at the support from the Prior High at 55.24

: Nymex WTI Oil NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) Composite Energy Future 75.27 85 80 75 70 Nymex oil weekly continuation 65 55.24 64.43 60 55 50 45 The rising diagonal support has been broken and the low at 64.43 completing a bear double top. 40 35 30 25 The bears are in charge, no question, but note that the target of the Double Top has been achieved and the support from the Prior High is intact. We would cover medium-term shorts here. D 2016 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 A M J J A S O N D 2018 A M J J A S O N D 2019 20 NYMEX New York Mercantile Exchange Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) Composite Energy Future 70.62 80 75 Nymex oil daily Dec 18 futures + US Ten Ten Year Year US Notes TNote + Ten Year Bund German Bund 62.30 70 65 The test and break of of the critical short-term support at 62.30 is of major importance. 60 55 The bears remain in charge ( but see above) 50 45 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Interest : rates: Comex Liffe Euribor Gold rates 0% Exchange Centre (CEC) Gold Electronic Commodity Future 2000 1900 Physical Gold ETF Monthly 1800 1700 0% 1377 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 The long-term chart shows a clear bounce from the long-term support from the Prior High (and Fibonacci) at 1774. 1033.90 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 + OSE Nikkei Nikkei 225 225 0% 98 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Exchange Centre (CEC) Gold Electronic Commodity Future 300 200 1400 Physical Gold ETF Weekly + US Ten Ten Year Year US Notes TNote + Ten Year Bund German Bund 1350 1300 1250 Watch how the market deals with the resistance form the Prior Low. 1124 1236.50 1200 1150 The bears remain in charge and the market s rally fails at the first important horizontal resistance 1100 1050 M A M J J A S O N D 2017 M A M J J A S O N D 2018 M A M J J A S O N D 201

: Comex Gold Exchange Centre (CEC) Gold Electronic Commodity Future 1275 1270 Physical Gold ETF Daily 1265 1260 1255 1250 1245 1240 Note the market is testing the diagonal 1235 1220.70 1230 1225 1220 1215 1210 A break of which will complete a very bearish bear flag. 1205 1200 1195 1190 1185 1180 1175 1170 1165 1160 16 23 30 6 August 13 20 27 4 10 17 September 24 1 8 October 15 22 29 5 12 November 19 26 3 D + Ten Year US TNote + Ten Year German Bund

+ European EuroStoxx DJ 50 Stoxx 50 + Ten year Year US Treasury TNote Note + Ten year Year Euro German Bund Bund + Ten UK Gilt year Japanese Bond + Dollar Oil rates + Euribor Gold rates

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