PIRELLI & C. OUTPERFORM (unchanged) EQUITY RESEARCH Update November 11, 2013 Italy: Automotive Sales EBITDA EBIT Net Profit EPS adj Dps EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E adj. Yield Eur m Eur m Eur m Eur m Eur Eur x x x x % 2011A 5,654.8 812.8 581.9 451.6 0.933 0.270 0.7 4.9 6.9 6.7 4.3% 2012A 6,071.5 1,063.0 780.8 393.8 0.813 0.320 0.9 5.2 7.1 10.1 3.9% 2013E 6,198.2 1,082.8 790.4 362.1 0.742 0.360 1.1 6.5 8.9 14.9 3.3% 2014E 6,475.4 1,152.4 847.5 450.2 0.923 0.410 1.1 6.0 8.1 12.0 3.7% 2015E 6,701.8 1,229.6 916.6 514.0 1.053 0.450 1.0 Source: Company data and Banca Aletti & C S.p.A. estimates. Note: Historical multiples calculated on yearly average prices. 5.4 7.3 10.5 4.1% Pr. Close 08/11/13 (Eur): 11.05 Tot Mkt Cap. ( m): 5,358.6 Tot No. of Shares (m): 487,991 Min-Max pr.(52 wks ): 7.1-11.4 Bloomberg/Reuters: PC IM/PC.MI -3M vol. avg. 1,890,694 Price Target ( ) 13.5 (from 12.0) Performance: -3M -6M -1Y Absolute 16.7% 27.0% 29.2% Rel. to: FTSEMIB 6.4% 17.3% 4.3% Major shareholders: Lauro Sessantuno 26.2% Malacalza Investimenti 7.0% Assicurazioni Generali 4.8% Edizione Srl 4.0% Mediobanca 2.4% Ruane Cunnif & Goldfarb 50.9% Free Float 26.2% Source: Consob Pirelli vs. FTSE Italia All-Share (-1Y) 11.50 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.50 Renato Gargiulo (Analyst) Phone: +39 0243358.067 renato.gargiulo@alettibank.it Andrea Bonfà (HOR) Phone: +39 0243358.194 andrea.bonfa@alettibank.it 11/11/13 7.00 N D J F M A M J J A S O N PIRELLI FTSE MIB INDEX - PRICE INDEX Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Premium attitude, focus on cash generation New FY 13e- 17e financial targets feasible. 4% avg. FY 16e- 17e EPS upgrade. We would consider the Group s new FY 13e- 17e financial targets (see the table next page) feasible and based on more cautious assumptions on the macro scenario (i.e. on Latam) and Forex/raw materials trends. Amongst the Company s main underlying assumptions : 1. Eur 350m further operating efficiencies; 2. further negative Forex impact in FY 14e- 16e; 3. negative raw materials impact of around Eur -120m in FY 14e (mainly attributable to Forex, for around Eur -130m); 4. Eur -50m/- 20m additional restructuring costs in FY 14e/ 16e; 5. Capex equal or below Eur 400m per year in FY 14e- 16e. Our FY 13e- 14e forecasts are substantially in line with the plan s targets, while we conservatively prefer to adopt a more cautious stance on the last part of the plan period (our current FY 16e projections stand around -10% below the Company s target at the EBIT line level). Given the Group s indications on reference businesses and the projected improvement in profitability, we have slightly upgraded our FY 16e- 17e estimates, with a avg. FY 16e- 17e EPS upgrade of approx. +4%. High projected cash generation over the plan period, also thanks to the planned divestitures of non-core assets The Group s new industrial plan foresees a high projected cash generation over the plan period (pointing to a FY 17e net debt/ebitda ratio of 0.3x from 1.2x in FY 13e), based on: 1. rising cash generation from operating activities (FY 14e- 16e cumulative operating cash flow of approx. Eur 2.4bn) also given the expected gradual increase in profitability; 2. continuing focus on a tight working capital management (operating working capital expected to remain below 10% of sales over the period); 3. lower Capex assumptions going forwards (equal or below Eur 400m per year) given that the Group will be beyond the peak of the Capex cycle in the next years; 4. possible disposal of the steel cord business, for which negotiations are currently underway; 5. possible further divestitures of the Company s financial assets (i.e. Eurostazioni, Mediobanca, RCS) over the plan period (Eur 150m disposals factored in the industrial plan). Even if the Group s dividend policy (around 40% of consolidated net income) was confirmed, we believe that there could be room for a possible more generous dividend distribution over the plan period. OUTPERFORM confirmed, Price target Eur 13.5 (from Eur 12.0). On the basis of our revised estimates, we set a new Eur 13.5 (from Eur 12.0) target price on Pirelli. Pirelli Tyre was valued by using both a DCF valuation (WACC of 8.5%, g of 2%, factoring in better cash generation assumptions) and by applying a sector FY 13e EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.6x (including a 10% premium to take into account the Company s strong positioning and higher profitability). We reiterate our positive stance on the stock on the back of the Group s strong positioning and higher focus on emerging markets and premium products going forwards, which should compensate for any possible further weakness in the European market. The stock is currently trading at a FY 14e and FY 15e PE of around 12.0x and 10.5x respectively. Major risks/opportunities. (i) Growth in demand may be lower than forecasted; (ii) a worse than expected macroeconomic scenario may affect the tyres business; (iii) The Company may suffer from a stronger than expected increase in raw material prices.
Pirelli&C. : FY 13e- 14e/ 16e financial targets vs. Aletti forecasts 2013E 2014E 2016E Total Revenues - Pirelli Plan 6.2 6.6 7.5 Total Revenues - Aletti 6.2 6.5 7.0 Diff. (%) 0% 2% 8% Growth rate - Pirelli Plan >2% >6% 7% Growth rate - Aletti 2% 4% 4% o/w volumes - Pirelli Plan 6.0%/6.5% >5% 4.5%/5.5% o/w volumes - Aletti 6% 4% 2% o/w Premium - Pirelli Plan >13% 12% 10% o/w price/mix - Pirelli Plan 3.0%/3.5% 3%/4% 3.5%/4.5% o/w price/mix - Aletti 3% 2% 2% o/w Forex - Pirelli Plan -7% -2%/-3% -2%/-3% o/w Forex - Aletti -7% -1% 0% EBITDA margin bef. restructuring (%)- Pirelli Plan 18% >18.5% >19.5% EBITDA margin bef. restructuring (%)- Aletti 18% 18.6% 19.1% EBIT margin bef. restructuring (%)- Pirelli Plan 13% >13.5% 15% EBIT margin bef. restructuring (%)- Aletti 13% 13.9% 14.5% Restructuring costs - Pirelli Plan 30 50 20 Restructuring costs - Aletti 32 50 20 Capex - Pirelli Plan 400 <400 400 Capex - Aletti 421 398 404 Source: Banca Aletti & Co. estimates, Company data Pirelli&C. : 3Q 13 and 9M 13 results Eur m Q3'12A Q3'13A %Ch. Q3'13E %Ch. 9M'12A 9M'13A %Ch. 9M'13E %Ch. Revenues 1552.3 1,519-2.2% 1522-2.0% 4574 4650 1.7% 4653 1.7% EBITDA 260.5 272 4.4% 272 4.5% 792 798 0.8% 798 0.8% % sales 16.8% 17.9% 17.9% 17.3% 17.2% 17.2% D&A -68-71 -71-199 -217-216 EBIT 192.1 201 4.6% 201 4.7% 593 582-1.9% 582-1.9% % sales 12.4% 13.2% 13.2% 13.0% 12.5% 12.5% Fin. Income -40-44 -45-88 -149-150 Others -24 1 0-26 -23-24 Pre-tax pr. 128.9 159 23.0% 156 21.1% 478 410-14.2% 408-14.7% Taxes -42-51 -52-170 -152-153 Tax rate (%) 32.8% 31.9% 33.0% 35.5% 37.1% 37.5% Inc. bef. Disc. Op. 86.6 108 24.7% 105 20.7% 308 258-16.3% 255-17.4% Inc. from disc. Op. 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net pr. bef. Min. 86.6 108 24.7% 105 20.7% 308 258-16.3% 255-17.4% Minorities 0.2 3 1-2 4 2 Net profit 86.8 111 27.5% 105 21.0% 306 262-14.4% 256-16.3% Net debt 1869 1971 2013 1869 1971 2013 Source: Banca Aletti & Co. estimates, Company data Pirelli Tyre : 3Q 13 and 9M 13 results Eur m Q3'12A Q3'13A %Ch. Q3'13E %Ch. 9M'12A 9M'13A %Ch. 9M'13E %Ch. Revenues 1543 1,512-2.0% 1512-2.0% 4542.9 4625.8 1.8% 4625.7 1.8% EBITDA 266 277 4.3% 277 4.3% 807.5 813.3 0.7% 813.3 0.7% % sales 17.2% 18.3% 18.3% 17.8% 17.6% 17.6% D&A -67-70 -70-195 -214-213 EBIT 199 207 4.2% 207 4.2% 612.3 599.8-2.0% 599.9-2.0% % sales 12.9% 13.7% 13.7% 13.5% 13.0% 13.0% Source: Banca Aletti & Co. estimates, Company data Pirelli&C.: Sector multiples EV/EBITDA '13eEV/EBITDA'14eEV/EBITDA '15eP/E'13e P/E '14e P/E '15e Continental AG 6.6 6.0 5.3 13.3 11.9 10.6 Compagnie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SCA 4.5 4.2 3.7 10.7 9.3 8.4 Bridgestone Corporation 5.1 4.4 4.2 10.4 9.3 8.8 The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 4.3 4.0 3.5 8.4 7.5 6.2 Cooper Tire & Rubber Company 2.9 2.5 1.8 7.9 7.9 5.8 Yokohama Rubber Co. Ltd. 5.5 4.9 4.6 8.5 8.0 7.5 Toyo Tire & Rubber Co., Ltd. 4.6 4.1 4.2 7.8 6.9 6.6 Nokian Renkaat Oyj 10.0 9.1 8.4 17.0 14.7 13.5 Avg. (excl. peaks) 5.1 4.6 4.2 9.8 9.0 8.0 Pirelli - Aletti 6.5 6.0 5.4 14.9 12.0 10.5 Premium/(discount) 28.4% 29.5% 27.9% 51.3% 33.2% 30.8% Source: Factset, Banca Aletti & C. forecasts
Pirelli&C.: Sum of the Parts Asset Share (%) Enterprise Value ( m) Value per share ( ) % on tot. Value Methodology Tyre 100.0% 7228 14.8 90.8% Avg. (multiples and DCF val) 8315 17.0 DCF valuation 6141 12.6 EV/EBITDA 13E (10% Premium) Eco Technology/Ambiente 100.0% 13.6 0.03 0.2% Book value Other assets 150.9 0.31 1.9% Book value Pirelli brand value 429.0 0.88 5.4% Estimated value Financial assets 136.7 0.28 1.7% RCS MediaGroup S.p.A. 5.4% 35 0.07 0.4% Market value Mediobanca S.p.A. 1.8% 99 0.20 1.2% Market value Treasury shares - savings 3.3% 3 0.01 0.0% Market value Pirelli&C total value 7958.0 16.3 100.0% NPV holding costs -78 Estimated value (Eur 10m p.a. disc. at 8.5%) Net debt FY'12-1205 Book value Unfunded pension funds -100 Estimated value Fair value ( ) 6574.7 13.5 Source: Banca Aletti & Co. estimates, Company data
PIRELLI: Company profile Business: Pirelli is a diversified industrial Group operating in the tyre business through Pirelli Tyre and in minor segments such as environment (production of photovoltaic electric energy, environmental reclamation and production of high-quality fuel from municipal solid waste) and sustainable mobility (i.e. particulate filters) businesses. However, following the spin-off of its real estate activities and the disposal of the broadband division, the Company is now mostly focused on the core tyre business, which represented 99% of FY 12 total revenues and contributed entirely to the Group s operating profitability in FY 12, and consists in the design, production and distribution of tyres for cars, trucks, commercial vehicles, motorcycles and agricultural machinery. The Tyre division s reference markets are Europe (34.5% of FY 12 revenues), Central and South America (34%), Nafta (11.5%), Asia/Pacific (7%), Middle East/Africa (9%) and Russia (4%). Lauro Sessantuno is Pirelli s main shareholder with a 26.2% stake. Investment issues: In line with the industrial plan presented in 2009, the Company gradually disposed non core assets, focusing on the tyres business. In FY 12, the Group benefited from a significant contribution of price/mix, partly thanks to the healthy trend in premium volumes, and further cost efficiencies, more than offsetting the increase in input costs. Despite the expected weakening trend in European volumes this year, we believe that the Company will be able to preserve a good level of operating profitability thanks to its better geographical exposure and premium positioning. In our view, the main risks/opportunities to our recommendation are the following: (i) Growth in demand in the businesses in which the Group operates may be lower than forecasted or Pirelli may underperform the total market; (ii) a worse than expected macroeconomic scenario may negatively affect the tyres business; (iii) The Company may suffer from a stronger than expected increase in raw material prices. FY12 Revenues breakdown by business Tyre - FY12 Revenues breakdown by market Other businesses 1% Middle East/Africa 9% Asia/Pacific 7% Russia 4% Europe 34% Tyre 99% Central and South America 34% Nafta 11% Source: Company data Source: Company data
Pirelli&C.: Aletti Summary EV CALCULATIONS (EUR m) 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e CAGR 15e/12 Price of ordinary share* 4.97 6.26 8.25 11.05 11.05 11.05 Total Shares outst. (000) 487,991 487,991 487,991 487,991 487,991 487,991 Market Cap (adj.) 2,426.3 3,040.7 3,988.9 5,358.6 5,358.6 5,358.6 Others 94.6 238.7 328.4 346.6 339.1 331.9 EV (adj.) 2,976.5 4,016.5 5,522.5 7,051.2 6,882.3 6,669.4 PROFIT & LOSS (EUR m) Sales 4,848.4 5,654.8 6,071.5 6,198.2 6,475.4 6,701.8 3.3% EBITDA 636.4 812.8 1,063.0 1,082.8 1,152.4 1,229.6 5.0% Depr,Amort, Write Offs & Prov -228.6-230.9-282.2-292.4-304.9-313.0 EBIT 407.8 581.9 780.8 790.4 847.5 916.6 5.5% Net Financial Interest -65.8-89.4-129.5-190.9-150.5-133.5 Other Financials 23.5-17.3-52.2-28.3 0.0 0.0 Earning Before Tax 365.4 475.1 599.1 571.1 696.9 783.1 Tax -137.4-34.5-200.8-211.3-243.9-266.3 Tax rate 38% 7% 34% 37% 35% 34% Minorities and inc. disc. op. -206.3 11.0-4.5 2.3-2.8-2.8 Net Profit (reported) 21.8 451.6 393.8 362.1 450.2 514.0 9.3% Net Profit (adj.) 21.8 451.6 393.8 362.1 450.2 514.0 PER SHARE DATA (EUR) EPS 0.045 0.925 0.807 0.742 0.923 1.053 EPS (adj.) 0.045 0.933 0.813 0.742 0.923 1.053 9.0% CFPS 0.513 1.399 1.385 1.341 1.547 1.695 BVPS 4.080 4.398 4.790 5.210 5.771 6.412 DPS 0.165 0.270 0.320 0.360 0.410 0.450 KEY MARKET RATIOS EV/Sales 0.61 0.71 0.91 1.14 1.06 1.00 EV/EBITDA 4.7 4.9 5.2 6.5 6.0 5.4 EV/EBIT 7.3 6.9 7.1 8.9 8.1 7.3 P/E (adj) n.m. 6.7 10.1 14.9 12.0 10.5 P/CF 9.7 4.5 6.0 8.2 7.1 6.5 P/BV 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.7 Dividend Yield (Gross) 3.3% 4.3% 3.9% 3.3% 3.7% 4.1% MARGINS AND RATIOS Sales growth 8.7% 16.6% 7.4% 2.1% 4.5% 3.5% EBITDA growth 41.8% 27.7% 30.8% 1.9% 6.4% 6.7% EBIT growth 87.6% 42.7% 34.2% 1.2% 7.2% 8.2% EPS growth -4.4% 1976.2% -12.8% -8.8% 24.3% 14.2% EBITDA margin 13.1% 14.4% 17.5% 17.5% 17.8% 18.3% EBIT margin 8.4% 10.3% 12.9% 12.8% 13.1% 13.7% ROCE 8.0% 15.0% 12.0% 10.7% 11.5% 12.4% Net Debt / EBITDA 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 Interest Cover 9.7 9.1 8.2 5.7 7.7 9.2 Payout Ratio 374% 29% 40% 49% 45% 43% NWC/Sales -3.2% -3.6% 3.0% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% OpFCF/Mkt.Cap -4.6% 3.2% -4.4% 4.6% 6.3% 7.6% CASH FLOW (EUR m) Net Profit (reported) 4.2 440.7 398.2 359.8 453.0 516.9 Non cash items 228.6 230.9 282.2 292.4 304.9 313.0 Cash Flow 232.8 671.6 680.5 652.2 757.9 829.9 Change in Net Working Capital 73.7 46.5-386.8 15.4-20.4-33.4 Capex -417.1-620.1-470.8-421.5-398.2-388.7 Oper. FreeCashFlow (OpFCF) -110.6 98.0-177.2 246.2 339.2 407.8 Acquisitions 0.0-94.0-242.0-231.1 0.0 0.0 Dividends -81.4-83.5-135.3-157.0-176.5-200.9 Others (incl.capital Increase) 265.3-202.0 86.4 1.1-1.3-1.2 Free Cash Flow 73.4-281.5-468.1-140.8 161.4 205.6 NOPLAT 254.5 539.7 519.0 497.9 550.9 604.9 BALANCE SHEET (EUR m) Net Tangible Assets 1,977.1 2,356.6 2,623.4 2,745.2 2,830.6 2,897.7 Net Intangible Assets 848.8 934.3 1,022.5 1,029.8 1,037.8 1,046.3 Net Financial Assets & Others 502.0 506.6 491.3 722.4 722.4 722.4 Total Fixed Assets 3,327.9 3,797.5 4,137.3 4,497.4 4,590.8 4,666.4 Net Working Capital -157.5-204.1 182.8 167.4 187.8 221.2 Total Net Assets 3,170.4 3,593.4 4,320.0 4,664.8 4,778.5 4,887.6 Shareholders Equity 1,990.8 2,146.1 2,337.4 2,542.5 2,816.2 3,129.2 Minorities equity 37.2 45.5 52.0 50.8 52.4 54.0 Net Debt 455.6 737.1 1,205.2 1,346.0 1,184.5 978.9 Provisions 481.7 481.7 523.0 523.0 523.0 523.0 Others liabilities 205.0 183.0 202.5 202.5 202.5 202.5 Source: Company data and Banca Aletti & C S.p.A. estimates. *Note: Historical multiples calculated on yearly average prices.
RESEARCH DISCLAIMER BANCA ALETTI & C. S.P.A. (BANCA ALETTI) A MEMBER OF THE BANCO POPOLARE GROUP, IS AN AUTHORISED BANK REGISTERED WITH THE BANK OF ITALY. ANALYST CERTIFICATION THIS PUBLICATION HAS BEEN PREPARED BY RENATO GARGIULO AND ANDREA BONFA ON BEHALF OF BANCA ALETTI. THE RESPECTIVE RESEARCH ANALYSTS HEREBY CERTIFY THAT ALL THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS RESEARCH REPORT ACCURATELY REFLECT THE ANALYST S PERSONAL VIEWS ABOUT ANY OR ALL OF THE SUBJECT ISSUER OR SECURITIES. THE ANALYST(S) ALSO CERTIFY THAT NO DIRECT OR INDIRECT COMPENSATION HAS BEEN OR WILL BE RECEIVED IN EXCHANGE FOR ANY VIEWS EXPRESSED. OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES THIS DOCUMENT IS PREPARED AS PART OF BANCA ALETTI INTERNAL RESEARCH ACTIVITY ON COMPANIES OR SECURITIES LISTED AND NOT LISTED ON THE REGULATED MARKETS. BANCA ALETTI AND ITS CONNECTED COMPANIES, AND THEIR RESPECTIVE DIRECTORS, OFFICERS AND EMPLOYEES MAY FROM TIME TO TIME HAVE A SHORT OR LONG POSITION, OR OTHER INTEREST, IN THE SECURITIES MENTIONED AND MAY SELL OR BUY SUCH SECURITIES FOR THEIR OWN ACCOUNT OR FOR THE ACCOUNT OF THE OTHERS. ANY OPINIONS, FORECAST OR ESTIMATES IN THIS REPORT, ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR ONLY; THEY REFLECTS ONLY CURRENT VIEWS OF THE AUTHOR AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. ALTHOUGH THE ANALYSIS, OPINIONS, PROJECTIONS, FORECASTS AND ESTIMATES EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT WERE IN NO WAY AFFECTED OR INFLUENCED BY THE ISSUER, IT IS BANCA ALETTI S PRACTICE TO SUBMIT A PRE-PUBLICATION DRAFT OF ITS REPORT (WITHOUT RATING AND TARGET PRICE) FOR REVIEW TO THE INVESTOR RELATIONS DEPARTMENT OF THE ISSUER FORMING THE SUBJECT OF THE REPORT, SOLELY FOR THE PURPOSE OF CORRECTING ANY INADVERTENT MATERIAL INACCURACIES. THIS DOCUMENT IS INTENDED FOR DISTRIBUTION ONLY TO PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS. THIS DOCUMENT IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND SHALL NOT BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION FOR THE SUBSCRIPTION OR PURCHASE OR SALE OF ANY SECURITIES, OR AS AN INVITATION, INDUCEMENT OR INTERMEDIATION FOR THE SALE, SUBSCRIPTION OR PURCHASE OF SECURITIES OR FOR ENGAGING IN ANY SPECIFIC TRANSACTION. THE INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN AND, IN PARTICULAR THE DATA CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE TAKEN FROM INFORMATION PROVIDED TO THE PUBLIC BY THE ISSUER HEREIN (THE ISSUER) OR OTHER INFORMATION AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC, AND REFER TO THE DATE OF THIS DOCUMENT. THIS DOCUMENT IS BEING SUPPLIED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, REDISTRIBUTED OR PASSED ONE, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY TO ANY OTHER PERSON OR PUBLISHED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, FOR ANY PURPOSE WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT OF BANCA ALETTI. BY ACCEPTING THIS DOCUMENT YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY ALL THE ABOVE-MENTIONED PROVISIONS. THE OPINIONS CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE BASED UPON INFORMATION AND DATA FROM SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE AND IN GOOD FAITH, BUT HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED BY BANCA ALETTI. BANCA ALETTI DOES NOT WARRANT THE COMPLETENESS OR ACCURACY OF SUCH INFORMATION AND DOES NOT ACCEPT ANY LIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF SUCH INFORMATION EXCEPT TO THE EXTENT REQUIRED BY APPLICABLE LAW. BANCA ALETTI HAS NO OBLIGATION TO UPDATE, MODIFY OR AMEND THIS PUBLICATION OR TO OTHERWISE NOTIFY A READER OR RECIPIENT OF THIS PUBLICATION IN THE EVENT THAT ANY MATTER, OPINION, PROJECTION, FORECAST OR ESTIMATE CONTAINED HEREIN, CHANGES OR SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMES INACCURATE, OR IF RESEARCH ON THE SUBJECT COMPANY IS WITHDRAWN. RECOMMENDATIONS FREQUENCY DEPENDS ON MARKET EVENTS AND RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE PERFORMANCE OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS COMPARED TO FUNDAMENTALS VALUATION. THE INVESTMENTS REFERRED TO IN THIS PUBLICATION MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL RECIPIENTS. RECIPIENTS ARE URGED TO BASE THEIR INVESTMENT DECISIONS UPON THEIR OWN APPROPRIATE INVESTIGATIONS THAT THEY DEEM NECESSARY. ANY LOSS OR OTHER CONSEQUENCE ARISING FROM THE USE OF THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION SHALL BE THE SOLE AND EXCLUSIVE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE INVESTOR. IN THE EVENT OF ANY DOUBT ABOUT ANY INVESTMENT, RECIPIENTS SHOULD CONTACT THEIR OWN INVESTMENT, LEGAL AND/OR TAX ADVISERS TO SEEK ADVICE REGARDING THE APPROPRIATENESS OF INVESTING. THE PAST IS NOT NECESSARILY A GUIDE TO FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF AN INVESTMENT. TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY APPLICABLE LAW, NO LIABILITY WHATSOEVER IS ACCEPTED FOR ANY DIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL LOSS, DAMAGES, COSTS, PREJUDICES ARISING FROM THE USE OF THIS PUBLICATION OR ITS CONTENTS. DISCLOSURE OF CONFLICTS OF INTERESTS BANCA ALETTI DISCLOSES CONFLICT OF INTEREST AS DEFINED BY ARTICLE 69 QUATER AND QUINQUIES OF CONSOB REGULATION N.11971 AS AMENDED FROM TIME TO TIME AND STATES THAT: 1. NEITHER THE ANALYST(S) NOR ANY MEMBER OF THE DEPARTMENT SERVES AS AN OFFICE, DIRECTOR OR ADVISORY BOARD MEMBER OF THE ISSUER; 2. BANCO POPOLARE GROUP HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT FINANCING TO THE ISSUER AND ITS PARENT AND SUBSIDIARY COMPANIES;
BANCA ALETTI HAS IN PLACE POLICIES AND PROCEDURES IN ORDER TO AVOID ANY CONFLICT OF INTERESTS AND TO RESTRICT RESEARCH ANALYST IN TRADING (FOR THEIR PERSONAL ACCOUNT) IN THE TYPE OF SECURITIES IN RESPECT OF THE ISSUERS THAT THEY COVER. THE RESEARCH ANALYST MAY ONLY OLD SUCH SECURITIES IN CIRCUMSTANCES AS MAY BE CONTEMPLATED BY THE ABOVE POLICIES AND PROCEDURES. PIRELLI: RATINGS HISTORY IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS* DATE: RATING TP MKT PRICE: 11/11/2013 OUTPERFORM 13.5 11.05 05/11/2013 OUTPERFORM 12.0 10.10 06/08/2013 OUTPERFORM 11.3 10.02 08/05/2013 OUTPERFORM 10.5 8.09 12/03/2013 OUTPERFORM 10.0 8.93 08/03/2013 OUTPERFORM 10.0 8.80 13/11/2012 OUTPERFORM 10.5 8.68 07/11/2012 OUTPERFORM 10.5 8.90 27/07/2012 OUTPERFORM 11.0 7.67 11/05/2012 OUTPERFORM 11.0 8.53 15/03/2012 OUTPERFORM 11.0 9.05 07/03/2012 OUTPERFORM 10.0 7.48 14/11/2011 OUTPERFORM 9.5 7.16 18/10/2011 OUTPERFORM 8.5 6.22 28/07/2011 OUTPERFORM 9.5 7.19 05/05/2011 OUTPERFORM 8.5 6.78 09/03/2011 OUTPERFORM 8.0 6.09 05/11/2010 OUTPERFORM 7.5 6.16 12/10/2009 INITIAL COVERAGE - OUTPERFORM 5.3 4.38 *Adj. post reverse stock-split STOCK RATINGS THE OUTPERFORM, IN LINE AND UNDERPERFORM RECOMMENDATIONS ARE BASED ON THE NEXT 12 MONTHS EXPECTED RELATIVE STOCK PERFORMANCE, INCLUSIVE OF THE DIVIDEND PAID OUT BY THE STOCK S ISSUER, COMPARED TO THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MARKET INDEX SHOWN IN THE CHART ON THE FRONT PAGE OF THIS REPORT. EXPLANATION OF THE RATING SYSTEM: OUTPERFORM: STOCK ESTIMATED TO OUTPERFORM THE MARKET BY MORE THAN 10% OVER A NEXT 12 MONTHS PERIOD IN LINE: STOCK PERFORMANCE ESTIMATED AT BETWEEN 10% AND +10% COMPARED TO THE MARKET OVER A NEXT 12 MONTHS PERIOD UNDERPERFORM: STOCK ESTIMATED TO UNDERPERFORM THE MARKET BY HIGHER THAN 10% OVER A 12 MONTHS PERIOD IN CERTAIN OCCASIONS, THE RELATIVE PERFORMANCE MAY FALL OUTSIDE OF THESE RANGES BECAUSE OF MARKET PRICE MOVEMENTS AND/OR OTHER SHORT TERM VOLATILITY OR TRADING PATTERNS. SUCH INTERIM FROM THE SPECIFIED RANGES MIGHT NOT REQUIRE A CHANGE IN RATING. NOT RATED: NO RATING OR TARGET PRICE ASSIGNED ALTHOUGH THE ISSUERS IS OR MAY BE COVERED BY THE EQUITY RESEARCH OFFICE SUSPENSION OF COVERAGE: SITUATION WHERE THE COVERAGE IS SOSPENDED INDEFINITELY FOR COMMERCIAL REASONS (EXAMPLES OF THIS MIGHT BE LACK OF INTEREST FROM INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, LACK OF LIQUIDITY), OR TEMPORARILY TO COMPLY WITH APPLICABLE REGULATIONS AND/OR BANCA ALETTI S POLICIES IN CERTAIN SITUATION OF CONFLICT OF INTERESTS, INCLUDING WHEN BANCO POPOLARE IS ACTING IN AN ADVISORY CAPACITY OR INVOLVED IN ANY TERM IN STRATEGIC TRANSACTION INVOLVING THE ISSUERS RATINGS DISTRIBUTION BANCA ALETTI & C. S.P.A. EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT S DISTRIBUTION OF STOCK RATINGS AS AT OCTOBER 1, 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS: OUTPERFORM IN LINE UNDERPERFORM Not Rated % ON ALETTI UNIVERSE 38% 45% 15% 2% OF WHICH INV. BANKING CLIENTS 20% 60% 0% 20%
VALUATION METHODOLOGIES THE BANCA ALETTI EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT OBTAINS A FAIR VALUE FOR THE COMPANIES UNDER COVERAGE USING A RANGE OF VALUATION METHODS, OF WHICH THE MOST PREVALENT ARE THE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS METHOD (DCF). DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL (DDM) AND MULTIPLE-BASED MODELS (E.G. EV/SALES, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, P/E, P/BV,). THE ANALYSTS ARE NEVERTHELESS FREE TO USE ALTERNATIVE OFFICIAL VALUATION METHODOLOGIES, WHERE DEEMED NECESSARY. THE ASSIGNED TARGET PRICE MAY DIFFER FROM THE FAIR VALUE OBTAIED ABOVE, AS IT ALSO TAKES INTO ACCOUNT OVERALL MARKET/SECTOR CONDITIONS (E.G. RISK PREMIUM), CORPORATE/MARKET EVENTS, AND CORPORATE SPECIFICS (I.E. HOLDING DISCOUNTS, LIQUIDITY) REASONABLY CONSIDERED TO BE POSSIBLE DRIVERS OF THE COMPANY S SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE. THESE FACTORS MAY ALSO BE ASSESSED USING THE METHODOLOGIES INDICATED ABOVE. ORGANIZATIONAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE MECHANISMS TO PREVENT CONFLICTS OF INTEREST THIS RESEARCH HAS BEEN PUBLISHED IN ACCORDANCE WITH OUR CONFLICT MANAGEMENT POLICY. TO ENSURE THE INDEPENDENCE AND THE IMPARTIALITY OF ITS FINANCIAL ANALYSTS JUDGMENT, EMPLOYED IN THE EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT (AS FOLLOW DEPARTMENT), INVOLVED WITH THE RESEARCH, ANALYSIS, COMPANIES VALUATION AND\OR FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS, AND WITH INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS DISTRIBUTED TO PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS, BANCA ALETTI HAS ADOPTED THE FOLLOWING ORGANIZATIONAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE MECHANISMS: THE DEPARTMENT HIERARCHICALLY RESPONDS TO THE GENERAL MANAGER OF THE BANK AND EXCLUSIVELY AND DIRECTLY RESPONDS TO HIM; THE EXISTING HIERARCHICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GENERAL MANAGER AND THE DEPARTMENT OR EACH ONE OF ITS FINANCIAL ANALYST(S) MEMBERS ARE SUBJECT TO PRINCIPLES OF PROFESSIONALISM AND TRANSPARENCY; THE CURRENT GENERAL AND\OR SPECIFIC GUIDANCE GIVEN BY THE GENERAL MANAGER TO THE DEPARTMENT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN CONTRAST WITH THE EXISTING LEGISLATIVE OBJECTIVES OF COMPLETENESS, CLEARNESS AND IMPARTIALITY OF THE PRODUCED STUDIES AND BE INFLUENCED BY THE SPECIFIC INTERESTS OF THE BANK RELATED TO A PARTICULAR SUBJECT OR FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT; THE REQUESTS OR THE COMMERCIAL COLLABORATIONS IN FAVOUR OF OTHER STRUCTURES OF THE SAME BANK OR THE GROUP TO WHICH THE BANK IS PERTINENT, WHICH, BY PRINCIPLE, COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A CONFLICT OF INTEREST ACCORDING TO THE EXISTING REGULATIONS, CAN BE ORDERED TO THE DEPARTMENT OR A SINGLE ANALYST ONLY BY THE GENERAL MANAGER; IN THE RELATIONS WITH THE OTHER STRUCTURES OF THE BANK OR THE GROUP TO WHICH THE BANK BELONGS TO, THE DEPARTMENT OR EACH COMPONENTS OF THE SAME MUST RETAIN THEMSELVES FROM SEARCHING, RECEIVING OR FURNISH INFORMATION THAT MIGHT INVALIDATE THE INDEPENDENCE AND\OR THE IMPARTIALITY OF JUDGMENT OF THE RESEARCH COMMENT AND\OR RECOMMENDATIONS OF INVESTMENTS OR FAVOUR AN ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE INFORMATION EITHER INSIDE OR OUTSIDE THE BANK OF OR THE GROUP. THE DEPARTMENT AND EACH COMPONENTS OF THE SAME MUST STICK TO THE PRINCIPLES AND BEHAVIOUR RULES FOR A CORRECT CARRY OUT OF THE FINANCIAL ANALYST ACTIVITIES; THE REMUNERATION OF THE FINANCIAL ANALYST(S) AND OF DEPARTMENT EMPLOYEES IS NOT TIED, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, TO INVESTMENT BANKING TRANSACTIONS AND\OR TO THE BUSINESS RELATIONSHIP DEVELOPMENT WITH ISSUERS UNDER FINANCIAL ANALYSIS. Banca Aletti & C. S.p.A. Via S. Spirito, 14 20121 Milan Operating Office Via Roncaglia, 12-20146 Milan Phone number +39 02 43358.1 - Fax +39 02 43358.254