Executive Summary The market reached the lower end of our preferred SPX2350-2370 target zone, without breaking below SPX2352, the past week, and then reversed with a 22p rally off the SPX2354.54 low made on Thursday. We expect this low to be minute-iv of minor-5 of intermediate-iii. Minute-v should now be underway, and with the current >10p waves in place micro-5 of minute-v should ideally target SPX2402-2407; which fits perfectly with the 1.382x extension of Major-1 and 1.618x extension of intermediate-i (see tables below). The daily TI chart, as well as market breadth setups are resembling the charts/setup from summer and spring 2016 the most when either final 5 th waves were also in the making. We have 3 timing/cycles (our Fib-timed trading intervals, Bradley Turn dates, and Gann dates) pointing to a turn around mid-march. If our preferred count is correct than we expect the market to peak within the next 10 days between SPX2405-2420 for intermediate-iii of major 3. Intermediate-iv should then drop to SPX2330-2285 before intermediate-v sets its eyes on SPX2480-2490 (blue boxes in tables below). 1 P a g e
Performance (% gain) YTD Trading week ending Trading Performance Update with North Post Partners, LLC NPP provides neither a boom, nor a bust. Just consistency. That s how the real money is made. This week we increased our entire portfolio-size by 0.4%, whereas the S&P500 lost 0.4%. Current positions are red due to Friday s up/down/up day; when we bought at the high, but we fully expect our YTD gains to reach >11% next week. And trading is all about cashing in profits and minimizing losses and as long as one does that one can only get richer NPP S&P500 Please contact me or Rus Chao directly (rustinchao@gmail.com) for more information. Joining NPP is absolutely free! Please follow NPP on TWTR: @NPPtrades (all intra-day trades are provided there in real time) Please bookmark NPP s website: http://northpostpartners.com/ (weekly digest/trading plans are posted there) *It should not be assumed that future performance will always be guaranteed and/or profitable. Nor will future performance necessarily equal past performance or past performance trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of NPP. Joining NPP is free, but does not exclude commission costs, and other possible charges. 2 P a g e
Elliot wave updates Last week we updated our bigger picture count in that the market is carving out a larger top (intermediate iii on SPX, major 3 on DOW). This week the S&P500 bottomed on Thursday right in our ideal minute-iv target zone (see Figure 1) and then put in the best rally (22p) since the SPX2401 high; suggesting minute-iv is in. In addition, we have now two >10p waves from the SPX2354.54 low: SPX2377.86 (Friday s high) and SPX2363.06 (Friday s low). See table 1 below. These can preferably be counted as micro-1, 2 of minute-v. Using standard Fib-extensions, all of minute-v should then ideally target SPX2402-2408; which fits perfectly with the 1.382x extension of Major-1 at SPX2408 and the 1.618x extension of intermediate-i at SPX2411. In the event that all of intermediate-iii already topped at SPX2401 (alternate count; see Figure 3 page 5) then the SPX2354.54 low can be counted as minor-a, with minor-b now underway targeting ideally SPX2399 (1.618x extension); which of course also is the ideal micro-3 target (see Table 1). Figure 1. Preferred count: Minute v of minor 5 of intermediate iii underway. 4? Table 1. Possible micro waves of minute-v to SPX2402-2408. 3 P a g e
Technical Market update The negative divergences we pointed out a week prior, should have not been ignored, as it caused an almost 50p drop in the S&P500; but price found support at the rising 20d SMA, and the charts TIs are ready to turn back up. Because the S&500 didn t close at the highs of the day, the non-ideal A.I. buy-signal alert we sent on Friday morning didn t trigger at the end of the day; but will on a green close on Monday. We apologize for that, as the A.I. is meant for daily closes, but sometimes we want to keep you a breast of possible important developments in real-time. The current chart set up resembles that of early-august 2016: minor-5 of intermediate-i. This would also mean our current minute-v should be done within a week. This in turn fits with several smaller and larger timing/cycle patterns as well (see page 8). The MACD and MFI14 will then also set up similarly as in 2016 (red lines on both TIs) telling us to expect a larger pullback, intermediate-iv, to ideally SPX2330-2285: 23.6-38.2% retrace of all of iii. Figure 2. SPX daily chart. Tis starting to turn back up from in some cases- oversold. 20d SMA held as support. 4 P a g e
Our alternate count. Figure 3. SPX daily TI chart. Alternate count; minor b of intermediate iv now underway. Less likely Alt: 1 Alt: b Alt: a Alt: IV 5 P a g e
Market breadth We ve talked a lot about market breadth s extreme readings the past week, so in this update we ll simple go over its current status. The McClellan Oscillator for S&P500 (SPX-MO) recovered sharply on Friday, as expected, but remains low. The current setup is similar as in August and May 2016 (red boxes), and January 2017 and April 2016 (blue boxes). In all 4 cases the market rallied for a few days before topping out. The SPXSI (summation index of the SPX- MO) remains on a sell after Monday s sell signal, and will likely remain that way throughout all of minute-v. Figure 4. SPX-MO turned up from extremely negative readings. Current setup similar to prior 4 last rallies. 6 P a g e
Miscellaneous Our long-term Simple Moving Averages only chart (LT-SMA, for trend followers and long term investing) continues to be 100% bullish: the long term trend remains up; even with a looming intermediate-iv, which should not change this chart at all (see 2014 example). As such this chart continues to support our overall view of the market and where it will head over the next several months. Our short term chart (ST-SMA, for traders to swing traders) changed 10% to 90% bullish; in line with the preferred minute-iv. Figure 5. LT-SMA chart 100% bullish ST-SMA chart 90% Bullish. Below is how a 100% bullish chart look likes, everything points up. Price > fastest SMAs > slowest SMAs. The Ebola scare correction in 2014 didn t even register on the LT chart! 7 P a g e
Our next Fib-based trading interval is set for March 14 for the SPX; which is in line with the next very strong Bradley turn date on March 20 (see page 9; 100/100 long terms); as turn dates are +/- 3 trading days. From one of our followers on TWITTER (this is one of the reasons why we are on social media: expand our outreach to not only increase our member-base, but to also increase feedback opportunities; so please follow us and NPP on TWTR and FB too!), we received a Gann-based turn chart, which also has a turn date on March 14 (red arrow) as well as on May 1 (orange arrow). This adds weight to the evidence that we should expect a top around mid-next week. In addition, the May 1 Gann-turn date also fits with our May 2 Fib-based trading interval; support the validity of our interval (as if 2+ years of nailing most highs and lows wasn t enough proof already ). Given the strength of the Bradley turn date, the overlap of all these dates through independent methods the anticipated Major-3/Intermediate-iii top appears more and more likely. Figure 6. Next Fib-based trading interval March 14 (+/- 3 days). Figure 7. Next Gann-based turn date set for March 14, after that May 1. 8 P a g e
All Bradley Turn Dates for 2017 January 18 (50/100 Long Terms Power) January 30 (55/100 Middle Terms Power) March 20 (100/100 Long Terms Power) April 3 (31/100 Declinations Power) April 17 (19/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) April 19 (59/100 Middle Terms Power) April 29 (19/100 Bradley Siderograph Power May 5 (30/100 Declinations Power) June 9 (61/100 Long Terms Power) June 21 (100/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) June 30 (100/100 Declinations Power) July 4 (100/100 Middle Terms Power) August 19 (17/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) September 5 (17/100 Declinations Power) September 7 (29/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) October 7 (48/100 Middle Terms Power) December 3 (23/100 Bradley Siderograph Power) December 6 (100/100 Long Terms Power) ALOHA Soul, Ph.D. 2017, Intelligent Investing. This copyrighted weekly periodical is published on non-stock market trading weekend days by Intelligent Investing, and is intended solely for use by designated recipients. No reproduction, retransmission, or other use of the information or images is authorized. Legitimate news media may quote representative passages, in context and with full attribution, for the purpose of reporting on our opinions. Analysis is derived from data believed to be accurate, but such accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. It should not be assumed that such analysis, past or future, will be profitable or will equal past performance or guarantee future performance or trends. All trading and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Inclusion of information about managed accounts, program positions and other information is not intended as any type of recommendation, nor solicitation. For more information, contact intelligent investing at intelligent_investing@yahoo.com. We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone for any reason. 9 P a g e