VOLUME 21 - NO. 12 DECEMBER 2011

VOLUME 21 - NO. 12 DECEMBER 2011

CONTENTS Pages Figures 1-6 1 Monetary Aggregates 2 Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities 2 Commercial Banks Deposits and Loans 2 Interest Rates (Selected) 3 Securities 4 Instalment Credit 4 Near-Banks 4 Building Societies 4 Inflation Rates 4 Actual Production 4 Stock Market Activities 4 External Trade 5 Tourism 5 Balance of Payments 5 BOJ Net International Reserves 7 Foreign Exchange 7 Reviews on Balance of Payments 9

2011 Bank of Jamaica Nethersole Place Kingston Jamaica Telephone: (876) 922 0750-9 Fax: (876) 922 0854 E-mail: library@boj.org.jm Internet: www.boj.org.jm ISSN 1018-9084

SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS Figure 1 Figure 2 BOJ Net International Reserves - 3,000 2,500 U S 2,000 $ M 1,500 N 1,000 500 0 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Months Figure 3 Figure 4 Commercial Banks' Weighted Time Deposit Interest Rates - Commercial Banks' Loans and Deposits - 450 22.5 2 400 P e r c e n t 350 300 J 250 $ 200 B N 150 17.5 15.0 12.5 1 7.5 5.0 100 2.5 50 0 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Months Months Loans Deposits Time Deposit Rate Figure 5 Loan Rate Figure 6 Money Supply (M1) - 140 130 120 110 100 90 J $ B N 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Months Money Supply (M1) Curr with Public Demand Deposits 1

1. MONETARY AGGREGATES (J$mn.) Local and Foreign Currency Money Supply (M1)... (a) Currency with the Public... (b) Demand Deposits (adj.)***... Quasi-Money... (a) Time... (b) Savings... Money Supply (M2)... Domestic Credit... + 120,468.38 56,710.72 63,757.66 225,435 54,141.41 171,288.64 345,898.43 317,242.75 118,467.65 52,258.64 66,209.01 227,881.00 54,495.77 173,385.23 346,348.65 335,878.05 130,362.70 62,646.68 67,716.02 230,848.68 55,297.88 175,550.80 361,211.38 345,091.53 % Change p.a. 8.21 10.47 6.21 2.40 2.14 2.49 4.43 8.78 Local Currency Money Supply (M1)... (a) Currency with the Public... (b) Demand Deposits (adj.)***... Quasi-Money... (a) Time... (b) Savings... Money Supply (M2)... Domestic Credit... + 111,486.18 56,710.72 54,775.46 126,979.85 28,682.49 98,297.36 238,466.03 235,731.61 110,566.53 52,258.63 58,307.90 129,369.46 29,401.89 99,967.57 239,935.99 269,486.60 122,550.30 62,646.68 59,903.62 132,262.55 29,454.60 102,807.95 254,812.85 275,590.75 9.92 10.47 9.36 4.16 2.69 4.59 6.85 16.91 Base Money... 85,093.02 81,296.70 91,710.12 7.78 II. COMMERCIAL BANKS (J$mn.) * Assets & Liabilities (J$mn.)**... 585,927.79 600,656.49 608,392.21 3.83 Loans**... Agriculture... Manufacturing... Construction & Land Development... Mining... Tourism... Transport, Storage & Communication... Consumer-Oriented... Government Services... Other... 251,340.63 4,519.53 8,296.10 21,962.55 426.38 31,153.52 8,993.26 139,867.59 30,138.27 5,983.43 258,086.60 5,060.63 7,780.66 19,833.93 515.13 31,799.72 8,898.19 152,823.47 24,024.65 7,350.22 266,044.20 5,366.12 7,771.29 18,487.91 595.07 33,983.91 11,911.59 157,166.20 22,837.32 7,924.79 5.85 18.73-6.33-15.82 39.56 9.09 32.45 12.37-24.22 32.45 Loan Quality (%) - 3 mths & Over Past Due Loans / Total Loans... 5.36 9.02 8.74 DEPOSITS... Private Sector (including overseas residents)... Time... Savings... Demand... 379,094.09 312,356.10 66,633.61 181,236.02 64,486.47 392,581.96 315,444.87 66,965.97 183,335.06 65,143.84 400,120.12 319,554.13 67,655.91 185,449.99 66,448.23 5.55 2.30 1.53 2.33 3.04 Government... Time... Savings... Demand... 22,833.73 1,277.59 2,586.20 18,969.94 31,516.25 1,503.78 6,544.78 23,467.69 29,361.31 1,515.30 3,937.81 23,908.20 28.59 18.61 52.26 26.03 2 Public Entities... Time... Savings... Demand... 19,964.98 10,172.34 4,942.68 4,849.96 * PanCaribbean Commercial Bank began operations in June 2008; RBTT rebranded as RBC effective July 11, 2011 ** Includes provision for loan losses; and excludes loans acquired by FINSAC. *** Excludes Deposits of Government, Public Entities, Financial Institutions and Non Residents + Revised 26,742.66 13,258.53 9,061.04 4,423.09 30,341.07 16,919.43 7,577.60 5,844.04 51.97 66.33 53.31 20.50

II. COMMERCIAL BANKS (J$mn.) (Cont'd) Spec. & O. F. Insts... Time... Savings... Demand... 23,939.28 9,085.19 1,463.66 13,390.43 18,878.18 5,580.54 1,360.45 11,937.19 20,863.61 5,169.64 3,133.97 12,560 % Change p.a. -12.85-43.10 114.12-6.20 Current Account Balances with BOJ (J$mn)... 668.85 471.22 240.73 LIQUIDITY (Average) % Actual Liquid Assets Ratio... Cash... Deposits with B.O.J... Treasury Bills... Other... Statutory Requirement... 43.76 3.37 12.25 0.18 27.96 26.00 37.38 2.85 12.28 0.21 22.04 26.00 37.70 3.46 12.38 0.24 21.62 26.00 III. SELECTED INTEREST RATES (%) COMMERCIAL BANKS (Domestic Currency) Fixed Deposits (J$100,000 & over) 3-6 months... 9-12 months... Call Deposits... Average Savings Deposits... Average Loan Rate... Average Inter-bank Rate... 2.25-7.90 2.25-7.70 3.50-5.00 2.47 18.95 4.14 2.25-5.72 2.25-6.00 3.00-12.00 2.13 18.30 4.30 2.25-5.72 2.25-6.00 3.00-5.00 2.10 18.30 3.34 Weighted Fixed Deposits Rate... Overall Weighted Deposit Rate... Weighted Loan Rate... 4.89 2.95 20.40 3.96 2.48 18.44 4.16 2.44 18.03 G.O.J. Treasury Bills (Weighted Average) Yield 1 Month:... 3 Months:... 6 Months:... 7.48 7.40 7.48 6.25 6.22 6.28 6.49 6.21 6.46 BOJ Open Market Rates (%) * 30-Day... 7.50 6.25 6.25 COMMERCIAL BANKS (Foreign Currency) Fixed Deposits (Under US$100,000) 1-3 months... 3-6 months... 6-12 months... Fixed Deposits (US$100,000 & Over) 1-3 months... 3-6 months... 6-12 months... Average Loan Rates... AverageSavings... 0.50-3.70 0.75-4.10 0.94-4.30 0.80-3.70 0.86-4.10 1.01-4.30 10.16 0.85 0.50-3.70 0.75-4.00 0.94-4.40 0.80-3.70 0.86-4.00 1.01-4.40 17 0.79 0.50-3.70 0.75-4.00 0.94-4.40 0.80-3.70 0.86-4.00 1.01-4.40 17 0.79 * The 60 day - 365 day BOJ Open Market Rates have been withdrawn indefinitely 3

IV. SECURITIES (J$mn.) (Outstanding Balances) GOJ Benchmark Investment Notes*... GOJ Treasury Bills... BOJ Open Market Operations... Nov 2010 760,335.73 4,000 129,121.02 Oct 2011 831,430.11 4,000 117,072.85 % Change p.a. 843,006.45 10.87 4,000 0 110,137.32-14.70 V. INSTALMENT CREDIT (J$mn.) (Banks & Near Banks) Total Credit Outstanding... New Business... 31,315.19 1,594.27 38,317.00 1,805.67 38,613.49 1,913.99 23.31 25 VI. NEAR-BANKS (J$mn.)** (Merchant Banks, Trust Com. & Finance Houses) Assets/Liabilties... Loans Outstanding... Total Deposits... 24,791.88 7,250.10 8,361.02 21,561.96 6,782.97 6,644.11 21,693.50 6,885.45 6,556.04-12.50-5.03-21.59 Loans... Agriculture... Manufacturing... Construction & Land Development... Mining, Quarrying & Processing... Tourism... Transport, Storage & Communication... Consumer Oriented... Government Services... Other... 7,250.10 25.14 387.51 2,083.19 0 301.17 18.53 3,865.69 100.60 468.27 6,782.97 19.96 298.32 2,272.76 0 321.12 0.67 3,721.57 0.37 148.20 6,885.45 19.66 334.56 2,270.80 0 312.72 7.55 3,793.17 0.37 146.62-5.03-21.80-13.66 9.01-3.84-59.26-1.88-99.63-68.69 Loan Quality (%) - 3 mths & Over Past Due Loans / Total Loans... 39.53 46.86 46.06 Liquid Assets Ratio (average) %... Statutory Requirement... Nov 2010 28.84 26.00 Oct 2011 31.11 26.00 32.71 26.00 VII. BUILDING SOCIETIES (J$mn.) (members & associate members) Assets/Liabilities... Loan Balances... Savings Funds... 169,277.80 87,260.63 115,890.58 186,057.12 89,485.15 120,408.74 186,923.39 89,339.58 121,783.29 10.42 2.38 5.08 Loan Quality (%) - 3 mths & Over Past Due Loans / Total Loans... 6.90 6.50 6.43 VIII. INFLATION Consumer Price Index (Dec. 2006 = 100)... Monthly Rate (%)... Calendar Year to Date (%)... Fiscal Year to Date (%)... 168.1 1.4 11.7 7.3 177.5 0.4 5.6 5.1 178.2 0.4 6.0 5.5 6.01 IX. ACTUAL PRODUCTION ('000) Crude Bauxite (tonnes)... Alumina (tonnes)... Sugar (tonnes)... Nov 2010 303.80 159.20 0 Oct 2011 406.00 168.61 0 377.21 159.44 0 24.16 0.15 - X. QUARTERLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT REAL GROWTH RATES (%) Total Value-Added at Basic Prices Seasonally Adjusted***... 4 Seasonally Unadjusted****... Sept 2010 2.0-1.1 Jun 2011+ 0.2 2.2 Sept 2011 0.8 0.6 * Includes foreign and domestic currency items ** As at June 2008 PanCaribbean Merchannt Bank ended operations *** Percentage change (%) over preceding quarter **** Percentage Change (%) over the corresponding quarter of the previous year

XI. STOCK MARKET ACTIVITIES Index*... Volume Traded (mn.)**... Ordinary Shares... Block Transactions... 85,220.82 959.04 104.40 854.64 96,125.84 184.58 184.41 0.17 95,297.20 302.85 187.75 115.10 % Change 11.82-68.42 79.84-86.53 Value of Stocks Traded (J$mn.)**... Ordinary Shares... Block Transactions... Advance/Decline Ratio**... 3,872.81 1,348.34 2,524.47 18/14 2,533.21 2,531.56 1.65 16/13 6,532.94 3,943.79 2,589.15 15/19 68.69 192.49 2.56 XII. EXTERNAL TRADE (US$mn.) 1. EXPORTS (a) Major Traditional Exports... Bauxite... Alumina... Sugar... (b) Other Traditional Exports... (c) Non-Traditional Exports... (d) Re-exports... General Merchandise Exports... (e) Freezone Exports... (f) Goods Procured in Ports... TOTAL GOODS EXPORTS... Jan-Aug 2010 368 89.64 226.20 44.24 57.51 323.85 54 791.48 26.52 94.08 912.08 Jan-Aug 2011 539.55 93.57 383.68 62.30 55.37 469.07 48.42 1,112.41 26.80 112.60 1,251.80 Change 179.47 3.93 157.48 18.06-2.14 145.22-1.62 320.93 0.28 18.52 339.72 2a. IMPORTS (by S.I.T.C.) (a) Food... (b) Beverage & Tobacco... (c) Crude Material... (d) Mineral Fuel... (e) Animal & Vegetable Oil... (f) Chemicals... (g) Manufactured Goods... (h) Machinery & Transportation... (i) Miscellaneous Manufactured Goods... (j) Miscellaeous Commodities... General Merchandise Imports... Freezone Imports... Goods Procured in Ports... TOTAL GOODS IMPORTS... 529.69 50.37 39.18 1,052.31 11.97 414.71 366.75 506.03 307.91 56.20 3,335.12 19.60 34.82 3,389.54 596.80 52.75 45.04 1,667.87 44.53 521.99 437.12 631.21 297.96 28.52 4,323.79 16.10 42.60 4,382.49 67.11 2.38 5.86 615.56 32.56 107.28 70.37 125.18-9.95-27.68 988.67-3.50 7.78 992.95 Trade Balance... -2,477.46-3,130.69-653.23 b. IMPORTS (by End-Use) (a) Consumer Goods... (b) Raw Materials... (c) Capital Goods... General Merchandise Imports... (d) Freezone Imports... (e) Goods Procured in Ports... Total Goods Imported... 1,099.24 1,933.18 302.70 3,335.12 19.60 34.82 3,389.54 1,162.27 2,807.98 353.53 4,323.78 16.10 42.60 4,382.48 63.03 874.80 50.83 988.67-3.50 7.78 992.95 XIII. REMITTANCE (US$mn) Net Remittances... Total Remittance Inflows... Remittance Companies... Other Remittances... Total Remittance Outflows... + Revised * As at end of month ** Monthly Values Nov 2010 129.5 150.1 127.3 22.8 20.6 Oct 2011 143.6 165.1 142.8 22.4 21.5 133.1 153.8 130.1 23.7 20.7 Change 3.60 3.70 2.80 0.90 0.10 5

XIV. TOURISM Tourists Arrivals ('000)... Stop Over... Foreign Nationals... Non - Resident Jamaicans... Cruise... Oct 2010 174.10 114.70 105.22 9.48 59.40 Oct 2011 197.42 112.53 103.57 8.96 84.89 % Change 13.39-1.89-1.57-5.49 42.91 XV. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (US$mn.) Balance of Payments (Calendar) 1. Current Account... A. Goods balance... Exports (f.o.b.)... Imports (f.o.b.)... Jan-Aug 2010-429.4-2,054.5 912.1 2,966.6 Jan-Aug 2011-1,077.0-2,595.5 1,273.8 3,869.3 Change -647.6-541.0 361.7 902.7 B. Service Balance... Transportation... Travel... Other Services... 663.3-259.4 1,318.4-395.7 607.5-339.9 1,351.6-404.3-55.8-80.5 33.2-8.6 C. Income... Compensation of Employees... Investment Income... -345.3 30.1-375.4-458.2 13.9-472.1-112.9-16.2-96.7 D. Current Transfers... Official... Private... 1,307.1 121.2 1,185.9 1,369.2 104.6 1,264.6 61.9-16.6 78.7 2. Capital and Financial Account... A. Capital Account... Capital Transfers... Official... Private... Acq./Disp. of non-produced non-fin. assets... 429.4-14.0-14.0 4.2-18.2 1,077.0-1.0-1.0 17.2-18.2 647.6 13.0 13.0 13.0 B. Financial Account... Other Official Investment... Other Private Investment... (incl. errors & omissions) Reserves... 443.4 677.8-6.9-227.5 1,078.0 243.8 789.2 45.0 634.6-434.0 796.1 Balance of Payments (Fiscal) 1. Current Account... A. Goods balance... Exports (f.o.b.)... Imports (f.o.b.)... Apr- Aug 2010/2011-397.0-1,360.8 544.0 1,904.8 Apr - Aug 2011/2012-857.3-1,746.6 733.4 2,480.1 Change -460.3-385.8 189.4 575.3 B. Service Balance... Transportation... Travel... Other Services... 352.8-178.0 767.1-236.3 338.1-229.6 811.6-243.9-14.7-51.6 44.5-7.6 C. Income... Compensation of Employees... Investment Income... -227.2 26.6-253.8-323.3 10.9-334.3-96.1-15.7-80.5 6 D. Current Transfers... Official... Private... 838.2 92.9 745.3 874.6 70.7 803.9 36.4-22.2 58.6

Balance of Payments (Fiscal) (Cont'd) Apr-Aug Apr-Aug 2010/2011 2011/2012 2. Capital and Financial Account... 397.0 857.3 A. Capital Account... -10.8-10.8 Capital Transfers... -10.8-10.8 Official... 0.2 0.2 Private... -11.0-11.0 Acq./Disp. of non-produced non-fin. assets Change 460.3 B. Financial Account... Other Official Investment... Other Private Investment... (incl. errors & omissions) Reserves... 407.8 207.1 405.7-205.0 868.2-149.5 845.3 172.4 460.3-356.6 439.6 XVI. BOJ NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (US$mn.) BOJ Net International Reserves (US$mn.)... Gross Foreign Assets... Gross Foreign Liabilities... Estimated Gross Reserves in Weeks of Goods Imports... Estimated Gross Reserves in Weeks of Goods and Services Imports... 2,171.41 2,979.17 807.76 31.65 22.81 1,961.74 2,824.88 863.14 26.44 19.76 1,966.11 2,820.42 854.31 25.53 19.20 XVII. FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEVELOPMENTS (US$mn.) * Combined Foreign Exchange Trading (Provisional) Foreign Exchange Purchases (spot)... Foreign Exchange Sales (spot)... 907.93 926.86 924.98 934.13 957.42 912.48 5.45-1.55 Foreign Currency Deposit Balances of Authorised Dealers (US$mn.) Commercial Banks Balances... "A" Accounts 1/... "B" Accounts... Other... 1,657.69 117.90 0.15 1,539.64 1,703.71 113.89 0.16 1,589.66 1,716.15 113.84 0.16 1,602.15 3.53-3.44 6.67 4.06 F.I.As Balance... "A" Accounts 1/... "B" Accounts... Other... 61.00 24.83 0 36.17 43.88 17.18 0 26.70 43.92 16.48 0 27.44-28.00-33.63 0-24.14 Building Societies Balances... "A" Accounts 1/... "B" Accounts... Other... 519.55 236.03 62.57 220.95 538.21 242.74 65.27 230.20 546.47 249.49 65.06 231.92 5.18 5.70 3.98 4.96 Total Foreign Currency Deposits (US$mn.)... 2,238.24 2,285.80 2,306.54 3.05 Total Foreign Currency Loans (US$mn.)... Commercial Banks... F.I.As... Building Societies... 1,401.10 1,288.02 31.96 81.12 1,282.71 1,168.13 30.65 83.93 1,336.80 1,219.48 31.01 86.31-4.59-5.32-2.97 6.40 * Foreign Currency balances represent the US dollar equivalent of the value of total transactions in major international currencies 1/ 'A' Accounts are tax free Foreign Currency Accounts held by non-residents 7

London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) Eurodollars (%) 3 months... 6 months... U.S. Prime Rate (end of period) (%)... 0.94 1.19 3.25 1.41 1.66 3.25 1.29 1.57 3.25 Selling Exchange Rates (end period) US$1.00 = J$... Can. $1.00 = J$... U.K. Pound = J$... Euro = J$*... 85.86 85.34 133.74 114.00 86.70 84.97 135.74 115.61 86.60 84.20 134.44 111.85 Caricom Selling Exchange Rates* T.T. $1 = J$... Bdos. $1 = J$... Guy. $1 = J$... E.C. $1 = J$... 13.42 42.91 0.43 31.79 13.54 43.35 0.43 32.11 13.50 43.30 0.43 32.08 * Indicative Rates 8

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Figure 7 Figure 8 Current Account (Jan - Aug 2011) BOP Sub-Accounts (Jan - Aug 2011) Figure 9 Current Account/GDP 2010 9