Investment report to the Joint Forum 4th Quarter 2014 Sanlam Umbrella Fund Create STRENGTH in numbers
Sanlam Umbrella Fund Section Page number Background & Overview of the Fund 2 Default Strategies 3 Short term Performance Analysis 4 Medium term Performance Analysis 5 Summary of Returns 6 Market Commentary 8 Manager Changes 10 Did you know? Efficiency: The hexagonal (six-sided) structure of the honeycomb uses the least material to create a lattice of cells with a given volume. Stability: Honeycomb structures are highly stable and have an extremely high strength-to-weight ratio 1
1BACKGROUND & OVERVIEW OF THE FUND Investment options Sanlam Umbrella Solutions offers participation in a defined contribution umbrella pension or provident fund. The following options are offered to participating employers: The Standard Option: offers a default investment strategy only (there are three defaults to select from); The Comprehensive Option: offers member-level investment choice in addition to the default strategy; The Comprehensive Plus Option: a more comprehensive option, which is subject to approval by the Board of Trustees. Investment strategy The trustees take responsibility to ensure that the fund offers an appropriate range of investment choice options. Participating employers can select either the standard or the comprehensive offering. Both options offer a choice of default investment portfolios. The default strategy preferred by the trustees is the Lifestage Programme. Employers can however select a more conservative default strategy namely the Volatility Protection Strategy depending on the needs of their employees and on the advice of their benefit consultant. A second alternative default strategy is the Passive Investor Strategy, which gives passive exposure to the investment markets at a competitive fee. Under the comprehensive option, members may select their own investment choices. The default portfolios are designed to meet the investment objectives of the majority of members. Those members who are of the view that the default portfolios do not serve their specific needs can opt to select their own investment portfolios from the member choice investment menu. The performance of the portfolios selected will directly affect member s eventual retirement benefit. The trustees regularly monitor the investment strategy and the investment choices on offer to ensure their appropriateness. A key part of this process is monitoring the performance of the portfolios selected and comparing it to the agreed investment benchmarks. The trustees appointed Simeka Consultants & Actuaries as investment consultants to assist them to monitor and manage thefunds investments. The role of the Joint Forum Each participating employer is required to establish and maintain a Joint Forum. This is a representative forum with equal representation by member and employer representatives where retirement fund benefits are considered and agreed upon. This forum therefore ensures member participation in the decision making and monitoring processes. One of the most important roles of the Joint Forum is to consider the appropriateness and performance of the default strategy as selected. Note that the employer technically remains the contracting party who acts on the decisions taken at the Joint Forum. 2
DEFAULT STRATEGIES 2Sanlam Lifestage: Fund Performance Accumulation Portfolio 2.5% 3.5% 12.6% n/a n/a Preservation Portfolios: Sanlam Lifestage 3 Months 6 Months Capital Protection 2.8% 6.9% 17.3% n/a n/a Inflation-Linked 2.6% 3.8% 13.1% n/a n/a Living annuity (ILLA) 3.1% 4.4% 11.7% n/a n/a Please note: Members that were invested in the Lifestage Programme Accumulation Phase before July 2013 and were part of the transition in July 2013 (to the Sanlam Lifestage Accumulation Portfolio) would have benefitted from the following actual investment returns (based on the combination of the underlying investment strategies): Fund Performance Sanlam Umbrella Fund Solution 3 Months 6 Months Sanlam Umbrella Fund Lifestage 2.5% 3.5% 12.6% 18.6% 15.8% Volatility Protection Strategy: Composition The Volatility Protection Strategy currently invests all moneys in the Sanlam Monthly Bonus Fund. Fund Performance Volatility Protection Strategy 3 Months 6 Months Sanlam Monthly Bonus Fund 3.0% 7.2% 16.9% 14.1% 11.9% Passive Investor Strategy: Composition The Passive Investor Strategy currently invests all moneys in the SIM Enhanced Tracker Balanced Fund. Fund Performance Satrix (SWIX) Balanced Tracker Fund 4.0% 5.6% 14.7% 18.9% 15.6% Please note: Passive Investor Strategy 3 Months 6 Months 1. Investment returns for the Lifestage Programme are quoted gross of investment management fees. 2. For the Smooth Bonus Range the bonuses declared are gross of investment management fees, but net of guarantee charges. 3. Investment returns for periods greater than 12 months are annualised. 3 # Although this default strategy was only made available from 1 May 2011, the underlying portfolio has a longer track record, which is shown above.
3 SHORT TERM PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS Total Fund Performance for the Quarter ended December 2014 12% 9% 6% 3% 2.0%1.9% 2.1% 3.2% 1.8% 2.9% 2.4% 1.7% 0.6% 2.6% 3.3% 4.4% 4.0%3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.8%2.6% 3.1% 0% -3% -0.3% -0.9% Total Fund Performance for the 12 Months ended December 2014 30% 20% 10% 16.9%17.3% 17.3% 11.8% 12.7% 13.5% 11.3% 10.9%10.3% 11.6% 10.5% 12.2%11.2% 13.3%14.7% 12.6% 13.1% 11.7% 9.6% 9.1% 6.4% 0% * Sanlam NUR Balanced Portfolio has a track records shorter than 12 months. 4
4MEDIUM TERM PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS Total Fund Performance for the ended December 2014 25% 20% 15% 18.3% 15.4% 13.6% 14.3% 17.6% 16.0% 13.4% 17.0% 14.8% 20.7% 17.9% 19.2% 18.9% 14.1% 15.8% 10% 5% 6.0% 0% * Sanlam NUR Balanced Portfolio has a track record shorter than 3 years. Total Fund Performance for the ended December 2014 25% 20% 15% 15.2% 13.8% 15.1% 13.3% 12.1% 12.2% 17.5% 14.4% 15.1% 15.7% 15.8% 15.6% 12.0% 13.3% 10% 5% 6.3% 0% * Sanlam NUR Balanced Portfolio and SMM 30 Portfolio have track records shorter than 5 years. 5
5SUMMARY OF RETURNS Portfolios SMM 70 Portfolio 2.0% 2.5% 11.8% 18.3% 15.2% SMM 50 Portfolio 1.9% 3.0% 10.9% 15.4% 13.8% SMM 30 Portfolio 2.1% 4.0% 10.3% 13.6% n/a SMM Absolute Return CPI + 5% Portfolio 3.2% 5.1% 12.7% 14.3% 12.1% Sanlam NUR Balanced Portfolio Multi-manager Range 3 Months 6 Months -0.3% 0.7% 9.1% n/a n/a Portfolios SIM Single Manager Range 3 Months 6 Months SIM Balanced Fund 1.8% 2.1% 11.3% 17.6% 15.1% SIM Managed Moderate FoF 2.9% 5.2% 11.6% 16.0% 13.3% SIM Inflation Plus Fund 2.4% 3.8% 9.6% 13.4% 12.2% Sanlam Cash Fund 1.7% 3.3% 6.4% 6.0% 6.3% Portfolios External Single Manager Range 3 Months 6 Months Sanlam Allan Gray Domestic Balanced 0.6% 1.0% 13.5% 14.8% 14.4% Sanlam Allan Gray Global Balanced -0.9% 2.0% 10.5% 17.0% 15.1% Sanlam Coronation Houseview 2.6% 3.6% 12.2% 20.7% 17.5% Sanlam Foord Balanced Fund 3.3% 4.4% 11.2% 17.9% 15.7% Investec Balanced Fund 4.4% 5.1% 13.3% 19.2% 15.8% Portfolios Index-tracking Range 3 Months 6 Months Satrix (SWIX) Balanced Tracker Fund 4.0% 5.6% 14.7% 18.9% 15.6% Portfolios Smoothed Bonus Range 3 Months 6 Months Sanlam Monthly Bonus Fund 3.0% 7.2% 16.9% 14.1% 12.0% Sanlam Stable Bonus Portfolio 2.8% 6.9% 17.3% 15.8% 13.3% 6
Return 5SUMMARY OF RETURNS (continued) Market indices Market 3 Months 6 Months All Share Index 1.4% -0.8% 10.9% 19.5% 15.8% All Bond Index 4.2% 6.6% 10.1% 8.7% 10.0% JP Morgan Global Bond Index (R) 1.4% 4.2% 11.2% 11.7% 11.8% MSCI World (R) 3.3% 7.5% 15.9% 30.2% 20.6% JP Morgan Global Bond Index (USD) -1.7% -4.1% 0.4% -1.0% 2.1% STeFI 1.6% 3.1% 5.9% 5.5% 5.8% CPI Inflation 0.6% 1.8% 6.0% 5.7% 5.3% Top40 - (Tradeable) 0.0% -2.9% 9.2% 19.1% 15.2% Mid Cap 8.8% 10.8% 19.6% 20.5% 19.0% Small Cap 6.6% 8.7% 20.6% 25.2% 19.9% Resource 20-19.8% -25.1% -15.0% -3.4% -1.2% Industrial 25 7.2% 6.1% 17.2% 32.8% 26.8% Financial 15 10.4% 9.8% 27.8% 28.3% 20.9% Financial Industrial 30 7.7% 6.4% 19.2% 31.6% 25.0% MSCI World Equity Index (USD) 0.7% -1.9% 2.9% 13.1% 7.9% Volatility versus return over a 3 year period Sanlam Cash Satrix (SWIX) Balanced Tracker 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Risk Sanlam Stable Bonus Sanlam Monthly Bonus Sanlam Absolute Return Allan Gray Domestic Balanced Allan Gray Global Balanced Coronation Houseview Foord Balanced Investec Balanced SIM Inflation Plus SIM Balanced SMM 70 SMM 50 SMM 30 Momentum AM Global Balanced CPI ALSI 7
6MARKET COMMENTARY Domestic Markets SA equities experienced a volatile December, with a 6% peak-to-trough movement in the index over the month. Despite the volatility, the All Share Index ended the month down a mere 0.2%, outperforming its emerging market counterparts. Resource counters were hard hit on the back of declining commodity prices, with the Resi- 10 index declining some 5.2%. Given the increase in global uncertainty fuelled by the sharp decline in the oil price, gold shares rallied 7.6%, highlighting investor appetite for safe-haven assets. Consistent with the trend in other emerging markets, particularly commodity intensive economies, foreigners were net sellers of domestic equities totalling R8.2bn, less than the R11.3bn sold the month before. Although SA equities are expensive relative to emerging market equities in general, trading on a P/E relative of 1.38x versus a 1.13X historical mean, domestic equities outperformed their emerging market counterparts in 2014 returning some 10.9% as opposed to the 5.5% from the emerging markets composite index. The catalyst for the relative outperformance of the domestic market was the growth in earnings per share, a trend that is expected to be more muted in 2015. The driver of the lacklustre growth in earnings is expected to be the resource sector that is likely to deliver negative earnings growth on a rolling 12-month basis. Oil prices are expected to remain lower for longer in order for investment in shale production is to be curtailed and the global market to be rebalanced. A potential tailwind for the economy will be the lower oil price, which if maintained throughout the year, will offset some of the headwinds. Coupled to the lower oil price will be a more benign interest rate environment with the MPC likely to hold off on raising rates, at least in H1. Against the backdrop of slowing earnings growth and a trailing market multiple of some 16.9X earnings, does the SA equity market still offer any value? Our bottom-up valuation model suggests that the market is expensive, trading on a rolling multiple of 16.1X earnings and a forward rolling multiple of 14.7X earnings. If the Big 5 stocks (BTI, CFR, MTN, NPN, SAB) are excluded from the Alsi, however, the trailing and forward mutiples of the market decline to 13.6X and 12.6X respectively, both below their historical averages. While the bottomup valuations suggest that financials are fairly priced and resources cheap (possibly for good reason), industrial shares are expensive. In light of the valuations, and taking congniscence of expected returns from competing domestic assets classes, we retain a neutral weighting in domestic equities. In the near term, however, risk aversion and slowing earnings growth could be a headwind. SA s PMI, a useful proxy for earnings growth supports the view that earnings will slow markedly in the first half of 2015 before rebounding in the second half. 8
6MARKET COMMENTARY (continued) International Market Global equities came under selling pressure in December as the decoupling of US growth and monetary policy from the rest of the world weighed on risky assets. Fuelling the divergence in interest rate expectations is the view that the ECB will announce full-blown QE on 22 January and that the BoJ will continue to reinflate the economy via Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE). Particularly hard hit were emerging market equities that suffered from capital flight linked to the carry-trade, a collapse in the Russian ruble and fears of possible contagion from Greece exiting the Eurozone. Even the surge in China s CSI 300 index of some 25.8% (in Yuan) failed to offset the losses in Russia (-18.2%) and Brazil (-8.5%). The MSCI World Index declined some 1.7% in USDs, while emerging market equities declined a more marked 4.8%. Due to rand depreciation, rand returns were +2% and -1.3% respectively. The plunge in the oil price triggered by OPEC s decision to recapture lost market share hit energy stocks hard, while disposable incomes benefitted from the sharp reduction in energy prices. While low oil prices will benefit oil-importing countries such as India, China, Korea and Eastern Europe, the oil-exporters such as Brazil, Venezuela, Russia and Iran will be the losers. Our base case view is that US interest rates will likely normalise at around 2.5% over the longer term, sufficiently accommodative to continue supporting equity markets. Despite all the uncertainties facing risky assets in 2015, global equities remain our preferred asset class, biased towards developed market equities. While competive currency devaluations will see growth being exported from the US to Europe and Japan, Euro and Yen weakness will shore up earnings growth in their home markets. Coupled with buoyant US economic growth and accelerating earnings growth, low double-digit returns are still possible in 2015. A risk to this view is that a stronger USD will erode US export competitiveness, resulting in a slowdown in economic growth. With exports accounting for only around 10% of the US economy, the currency effect will likely be muted. Since the MSCI World Index is trading on a P/E of some 17.6X earnings, marginally ahead of the 17.4X 10-year mean, the equity market is still seen as fairly valued. Relative to bonds, however, the equity market is attractive reinforcing our overweight position in this asset class. Furthermore, while relative valuations point to indifference between emerging and developed market equities (i.e a neutral weighting), the risk of capital flight linked to softer commodity prices, a narrowing in the carry trade premium and currency depreciation all support an overweight allocation to developed markets. 9
MANAGER CHANGES 7Allan Gray There have been no major changes in the Investment philosophy or corporate developments over the quarter. Coronation There have been no major changes in the Investment philosophy or corporate developments over the quarter. SIM There have been no major changes in the Investment philosophy or corporate developments over the quarter. Investec There have been no major changes in the Investment philosophy or corporate developments over the quarter. Sanlam Investments: Multi-Manager There have been no major changes in the Investment philosophy or corporate developments over the quarter. 10