STATISTICAL BULLETIN OF GOVERNMENT SECURITIES Quarterly newsletter - No.1/ May 216 BETTER UNDERSTAND GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET http://www.umoatitres.org Agence UMOA-Titres is a regional agency supporting the issuance and management of Government securities in the WAMU area. The agency has been tasked to assist the Member States of the Union in raising financial resources at reasonable costs
S U M M A R Y 1. The WAMU securities market 1 P. 4 1.1. Summary sheets of the Union (with indicators) P. 4 1.2. Primary market : Focus on the first quarter and achievements since the beginning of 216 P. 5 1.3. Outstanding of Government securities market P. 8 1.4.The second quarter of 216 schedule P. 12 1.5. Analysis of the secondary market (invitation to tender) P. 13 1.6. Eurobonds P. 15 2. Countries analysis P. 16 2.1. Benin P. 16 2.2. Burkina P. 22 2.3. Côte d Ivoire P. 29 2.4. Guinea-Bissau P. 36 2.5. Mali P. 4 2.6. Niger P. 45 2.7. Senegal P. 5 2.8. Togo P. 57 1 Analysis outside the Eurobondss Publication Director : Mr Adrien DIOUF, Director of Agence UMOA-Titres Managing Director : Department of Communications, Investor relations and Promotion of public securities 3
1. The WAMU securities market 1.1. Summary sheets of the Union (with indicators) Macroeconomic indicators 21 211 212 213 214 215 216* GDP Growth rate 4,4,9 6,7 6, 6,6 6,6 7,2 Overall fiscal balance (% GDP) -1,3-1,8-2,3-2,8-3,3-3,8-3,7 Current account balance -9,8-8,9-8 -7,1-6,2-5,3-5,8 Money supply/gdp 34, 35,9 35,5 36,8 39,3 41,6 41,6 Savings rate 16 16 17, 17 16 18 19 Inflation rate, annual average 1,4 3,9 2,4 1,5 -,1 1, 1,4 Investment rates 21 19 23 25 24 24 26 Sources: BCEAO, estimates 213-215, (*) Projections Quarterly overview of financial operations Level at end of March In billion FCFA 214 215 214 215 216* Revenue and donations 1 387,9 11 554,6 2 182,7 2 467,3 12 749,4 Expenditure 11 975,1 13 527,9 2 496,5 2 82,8 14 845,5 Total budgetary balance -1587,2-1973,2-313,8-353,5-296,2 % of GDP -3,3-3,8 - - -3,7 Sources: BCEAO. (*) Projection Short-term indicators 214 215 216 T4 T1 T2 T3 T4 Janv. Févr. Industrial production, YOY (in %) 9,5 1,5 5,3 7,2 11,5 7,6 9,6 Index retail trade turnover 9,4 6,3 8,3 3,7 5,2 9,3 9,7 Changing money supply (stocks end of period, YOY (in %)) 14,4 16,3 16,6 16,2 14,4 14,1 - Dec. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. 1 week interbank rates (monthly averages) 3,44 3,61 3,64 3,22 3,58 3,71 3,8 one (1) month 5,16 4,89 4,33 5,4 3,8 4,6 4,86 Consumer prices, YOY (in %),4 1,1 1,3 1,4 1,3 1,,9 Sources: BCEAO, estimates 213-215, (*) Projections 4
Public finance: investments, deficit and debt Debt, Investment and fiscal deficit in WAEMU (212-217) % of GDP 5 4 3 2 1 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 4 3 2 1 En % du PIB Internal debt (%PIB) Total public debt Public investment rate External debt (%PIB) Overall investment rate Overall fiscal balance (right scale) Source: IMF. March 216 and BCEAO 1.2. Primary market: Focus on the first quarter and achievements since the beginning of 216. 1.2.1.Total volume 1 raised and mean residual life Issuer Total amount raised (in billions) Mean residual life to date Benin 8 2.211 Burkina 114 1.417 Côte d'ivoire 6 2.198 Guinea-Bissau -.659 Mali 11 1.912 Niger 83 1.736 Senegal 33 1.937 Togo 122 1.713 1 - hese volumes have been raised by tender 5
1.2.2. Total volume raised and distribution by issuer Total volume raised and distribution by issuer 36 24 12 12 33 8 114 6 Benin Burkina Côte d'ivoire Guinea Bissau 11 83 122 Mali Niger Senegal Togo Invitation to tender Syndication Total volume raised and distribution by issuer Togo; 12% Benin; 8% Burkina; 12% Senegal; 31% Côte d'ivoire; 18% Niger; 8% Mali; 11% 6
1.2.3. Total volume raised and distribution by maturity Total volume raised and distribution by maturity 18 175 171 169 165 12 6 6 59 71 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 3 years 5 years 7 years Total volume raised and distribution by maturity 7 years; 19% 3 months; 7% 6 months; 7% 5 years; 8% 1 year; 2% 3 years; 19% 2 years; 2% 7
1.3. Outstanding of Government securities market 1.3.1.Outstanding by issuing Distribution of the market's outstanding by issuing 6 4 5 166 2 1 692 invitation to tender Syndication 1.3.2. Outstanding by issuer Distribution of the outstanding of Government securities market 3 2 1 17 792 142 356 1 118 1 461 Benin Burkina Côte d'ivoire Guinea- Bissau 26 66 invitation to tender 356 415 949 566 Mali Niger Senegal Togo 8
Distribution of the outstanding of Government securities market Togo; 8% Benin; 12% Senegal; 2% Burkina; 7% Niger; 5% Mali; 1% Guinea-Bissau; % Côte d'ivoire; 38% 1.3.3. Analysis of Government securities portfolio Distribution of Government Securities Portfolio 1 6 1 4 1 2 1 8 6 4 792 349 1 461 66 318 949 569 2 26 Benin Burkina Côte d'ivoire Guinea Bissau Mali Niger Senegal Togo 9
Distribution of Government Securities Portfolio Togo; 11% Benin; 15% Senegal; 19% Burkina; 7% Niger; 6% Côte d'ivoire; 29% Mali; 13% Guinea Bissau; 1% 1.3.4. Repayment profile of public debt (debt service) Repayment profile of public debt 2 1 5 27 279 225 1 5 149 1 383 1 449 1 473 91 48 972 724 27 389 11 5 2 265 15 56 42 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Principal Coupon 1
222; 4% 223; 1% 224; 1% 221; 5% Debt service 225; 1% 216; 21% 22; 1% 219; 14% 217; 22% 218; 21% 1.3.5. Repayment profile of the upcoming quarter Repayment profile of the second quarter 15 12 9 6 3 9,1 33, 21,3 16, 2,1 21,4 41,8 1,3 5,2 2,6 115,2 3,6 1,1 14,8 8,8 Burkina Cote d'ivoire Mali Niger Senegal Togo Burkina Cote d'ivoire Mali Senegal Burkina Cote d'ivoire Senegal Togo Principal voucher 5,9 4, 15,6 75,7 44, 41,9 54,3 9,3 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 11
1.4. The second quarter of 216 schedule Description of WAMU Member States issuance for the second quarter of 216 (in billion of Francs CFA) Month Issuer Day Instruments April Maturity (in years) Issuance procedure Amount Burkina Faso 7 OT 5 Invitation to tender 4 Côte d'ivoire 12 BT 1 Invitation to tender 5 Benin 13 BT 1 Invitation to tender 3 Niger 14 BT ½ Invitation to tender 4 Senegal 19 BT 1 Invitation to tender 3 Mali 2 OT 7 Invitation to tender 36 Côte d'ivoire 21 OT 7 Invitation to tender 7 Mali 25 OT 7 Syndication 65 Togo 25 OT 3 Invitation to tender 3 Total 43 Guinea-Bissau 28 BT ½ Invitation to tender 12 May Senegal 1 OT 5 Syndication 15 Côte d'ivoire 3 OT 3 Invitation to tender 61 Côte d'ivoire 1 OT 1 Syndication 15 Burkina Faso 19 BT ½ Invitation to tender 4 421 Togo 25 BT 2 Invitation to tender 2 June Benin 9 BT 2 Invitation to tender 3 Mali 15 BT 2 Invitation to tender 3 Burkina Faso 16 OT 3 Invitation to tender 4 1 Total issuance by Invitation to tender 559 Total issuance by public offerings 365 Total issuance 924 12
1.5. Analysis of the secondary market 2 (invitations to tender) Trend of the transactions volume Trend of the transactions volume 1 8 6 4 2 Securities traded in the first quarter of 216 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 11-Jun-25 16-Oct-19 22-Mar-23 9-Dec-16 29-Oct-19 25-Mar-21 5-Aug-19 9-Jan-17 13-Feb-18 29-Mar-2 15-Jul-2 2-Aug-16 21-Jun-16 22-Oct-19 31-Oct-17 15-Feb-17 27-Jan-19 Jan Feb March Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March 215 216 Securities traded in the first quarter of 216 CI - 5,99% CI - 1 5,8% years SN -- 55,9% years CI - 5,25% 7 years CI - 5,8% 5 years ML - 5 - years 6% CI - 5-6% years CI - -BT 5 years - CI 24 -BT months - 24 CI - months 6,5% SN -- 75,9% years CI -BT - 5 years - CI 12 -BT months - ML 24 - months 6,25% CI -BT - 5 - years BJ 24 -BT months - SN 12 - months 5,5% - 3 years 2 - Analysis of the transactions of securities issued by tender between banks 13
Distribution of the volumes traded by issuer Securities traded in the first quarter of 216 Senegal; 18% Benin; % Mali; 9% Cote d'ivoire; 73% Ratio Nominal/Oustanding 15% 1% 12,2% end 215 end March 216 5% % 1,86% 1,3%,67%,48%,61%,91% 1,12%,4% Benin Burkina Faso Cote d'ivoireguinée Bissau Mali Niger Senegal Togo 14
1.6. 1.6. Eurobonds 1.6.1. Description of the securities Issuer Wording ISIN Maturities (in years) Date of issuance Amount issued (millions USD) Issuance price Output upon issuance Senegal Cote d'ivoire Senegal SN - 8,75% - 1 years - 13.May.21 (EB) CI - 5,375% - 1 years - 23.July.24 (EB) SN - 6,25% - 1 years - 3.July.24 (EB) XS625251854 1, 13/5/21 5 97,574 9,32 XS18941389 1, 23/7/24 75 98,18 5,7 XS19161875 1, 3/7/24 5 1 6,34 1.6.2. 1.6.2. Secondary market rates 15
2. Countries analysis 2.1. Benin 2.1.1. Identity card (with indicators) Macroeconomic indicators 21 211 212 213 214 215 216* GDP Growth rate 2,1 3, 4,6 6,9 6,5 5,2 5,8 Overall fiscal balance (% GDP) -1,5-1,4 -,4-1,7-1,9-5,4-4,2 Current account balance -7,6-6,6-7,1-7,4-9,2-7,7-7,8 Money supply/gdp (%) 36,9 39,9 39,7 41,5 45,1 45,9 48,3 Savings rate 2,9 2,4 3,1 3,6 2,1 1,4 1,5 Inflation rate, annual average 2,1 2,7 6,7 1, -1,1,3 1,5 Investment rates 23 24 23 29 25, 3 31 Sources: BCEAO, estimates 213-215, (*) Projections or provisional data Quarterly overview of financial operations Level at end of March En Mds FCFA 214 215 214 215 216* Revenue and donations 824,9 89,8 189,2 197,8 976,4 Expenses 916,5 1 159,7 214,7 226,3 1 24,7 Total budgetary balance -91,7-268,9-25,5-28,5-228,3 % of GDP -1,9-5,4 - - -4,2 Sources: BCEAO, estimates 213-215, (*) Projections or provisional data Short-term indicators 214 215 216* T4 T1 T2 T3 T4 Janv. Févr. Industrial production, YOY (in %) -2,7-25,8-35,6-7,8-8,5 Index retail trade turnover 6,6 27,7 35,1 48, 34,3 Changing money supply (stocks end of period, YOY (%)) 17,7 16,6 8,5 2,9 7,1 - Déc. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Synthetic indicator of the economic situation (ISC). YOY (%) *. 1,5,5,5,8,6 Consumer prices, YOY (in %) -,7 -,2 1,1 2,3 2,3 -,1 -,1 Sources: BCEAO, estimates 213-215, (*) Projections or provisional data (**) This indicator is the result of algebraic synthesis of economic activity sectoral indicators determined from 16
Public finance: investments, budget balance and debt Benin : Debt, Investment and Fiscal balance 5 % of GDP 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 212 213 214 215 216 217-6 Total public debt Public investment rate Overall investment rate Overall fiscal balance (right scale) Source: IMF. March 216 and BCEAO 2.1.2. The primary market 2.1.2.1. Focus on the first quarter and achievements since the beginning of 216 Country analysis Benin By invitation to tender 6 4 52,5 2 27,5 1 year 3 years 17
2.1.2.2. List of issuance (amount in billion CFA) Wording Date of issuance Maturity (years) Means of Issuance Amount announced Amount tendered Amount withheld Marginal rate Weighted average rate BJ - 5.5% - 3 years - 13.January.19 12/1/16 3 Invitation to tender 25 43.25 25 5.87% 5.63% BJ - BT - 12 months - 15.February.17 17/2/16 1 Invitation to tender 25 32.465 27.5 5.74% 5.36% BJ - 5.5% - 3 years - 16.March.19 15/3/16 3 Invitation to tender 25 28.35 27.5 6.24% 6.6% 2.1.2.3. Weighted average cost of debt per maturity since the beginning of 216 Weighted average cost 5 4 3 2 1 1 year 3 years 18
2.1.2.4. Output rate trend since the beginning of 216 7,% Output rate trend 6,% 5,% 4,% 16-Jan-14 28-Feb-14 21-Mar-14 25-Apr-14 23-May-14 2-Jun-14 11-Jul-14 29-Aug-14 1-Oct-14 24-Oct-14 14-Jan-15 19-Feb-15 19-Mar-15 18-Apr-15 15-May-15 18-Jun-15 9-Jul-15 31-Jul-15 28-Aug-15 1-Oct-15 28-Oct-15 3-Dec-15 18-Dec-15 13-Jan-16 18-Feb-16 16-Mar-16 BT-1 BT-1 yearbt-2 yearyears BT-1 BT-1 year BT-1 yearbt-2 yearyears BT-1 OT-7 yearbt-2 years years BT-1 BT-1 yearot-7 yearbt-2 yearsbt-2 yearsot-7 yearsot-3 yearsot-5 yearsot-5 yearsot-3 yearsot-5 yearsot-7 yearsot-5 yearsot-3 years BT-1 OT-3 year years 2.1.3. Outstanding 2.1.3.1. Level of outstanding public debt (amount in billion CFA) Identifier Wording Due date Outstanding B622G1 BJ - 5.5% - 1 years - 8.July.17 8. Jul-17 11 977 714 286 B662G7 BJ - 6% - 1 years - 16.september.18 16 - sept.-18 11 25 B642F1 BJ - 6.5% - 7 years - 22.october.16 22. oct-16 7 326 898 BJ17 CAA BENIN 6.5% 211-216 (5 years) 9. nov-16 17 22 592 5 B6511B4 BJ - BT - 24 months - 8.July.16 8. Jul-16 4 B6532F1 BJ - 6.5% - 7 years - 1.october.21 1. oct-21 56 716 B6541B1 BJ - BT - 24 months - 2.october.16 2. oct-16 4 B6572F7 BJ - 6.5% - 7 years - 19.March.22 19 March-22 77 B6581B7 BJ - BT - 24 months - 16.April.17 16 Apr.-17 33 B6591B6 BJ - BT - 24 months - 11.May.17 11 May-17 33 B662C9 BJ - 5.5% - 3 years - 9.July.18 9. Jul-18 71 58 B6612E4 BJ - 6.25% - 5 years - 31.July.2 31. Jul-2 11 B6622F BJ - 6.5% - 7 years - 3.December.22 3. dec-22 165 B6632E2 BJ - 6.25% - 5 years - 18.December.2 18. dec-2 55 BJ642 BJ - 5.5% - 3 years - 13.January.19 13. Jan-19 25 BJ659 BJ - BT - 12 months - 15.February.17 15. Feb-17 27 5 19
2.1.3.2. Debt service (Government securities) by year Debt service Principal voucher Millions 2 15 32 37 34 25 14 1 5 114 142 163 167 115 7 3 6 48 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 Debt service 221; 7% 222; 5% 216; 15% 22; 13% 217; 19% 219; 2% 218; 21% 2.1.3.3. Analysis of the second quarter 2.1.3.3.1. Projected issuance Date of issuance Instrument Means of Issuance Maturity (years) Amounts (billion) 13/4/16 BT Invitation to tender 1 3 9/6/16 BT Invitation to tender 2 3 2
2.1.3.3.2. Maturities of the quarter Instrument Date Principal Voucher BJ - BT - 12 months - 12.April.17 14 Apr.-16 1 86 24 4 2.1.4. Analysis of Government securities portfolio Geographic distribution of Benin's security holders 35 3 25 34 2 159 15 1 5 15 2 59 27 94 43 Geographic distribution of Benin's security holders Senegal; 11,82% Togo; 5,41% Niger; 3,47% Benin; 38,34% Mali; 7,42% Guinea-Bissau;,25% Côte d'ivoire; 13,24% Burkina Faso; 2,5% 21
2.2. Burkina Faso 2.2.1. Identity card (with indicators) Macroeconomic indicators 21 211 212 213 214 215 216* GDP Growth rate 8,4 6,6 6,5 6,2 4, 4, 5,5 Overall fiscal balance (% GDP) -4,4-2,3-3,1-3,5-1,8-2,5-3,7 Current account balance -2, -1,5-1,5-11,1-8, -4,5-3,1 Money supply/gdp (%) 29,7 29,7 3,5 32,2 34,5 39,3 39,7 Savings rate 18 22 25,5 18 23 24 26 Inflation rate, annual average -,6 2,8 3,8,5 -,3 1,,8 Investment rates 25,4 28, 3,8 34,1 32,3 31,8 3,6 Sources : BCEAO, estimates 213-215, (*) Projections or provisional data Quarterly overview of financial operations Level at end of March In billion FCFA 214 215 214 215 216* Revenue and donations 1 321,1 1 462,8 299,3 263,7 1 63,4 Expenditure 1 434,7 1 626,5 266,7 272,5 1 86,7 Total budgetary balance -113,6-163,7 32,5-8,8-257,3 % of GDP -1,8-2,5 - - -3,7 Sources : BCEAO, estimates 213-215, (*) Projections or provisional data Short-term indicators 214 215 216* T4 T1 T2 T3 T4 Janv. Févr. Industrial production, YOY (in %) 5,8 9,2 15,9 12,7-2,2 Index retail trade turnover 4,4 1,4 2,7 2, 17,9 Changing money supply (stocks end of period, YOY (%)) Synthetic indicator of the economic situation (ISC). YOY (%) *. 12,3 14,8 1,6 12, 19,7 - Dec. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. 1, 2,4 2,2 2, 2,2 Consumer prices, YOY (in %) -,2,7 1,9 2,2 1,3 -,2 -,2 Sources: BCEAO, estimates 213-215, (*) Projections or provisional data (**) This indicator is the result of algebraic synthesis of sectoral indicators of economic activity determined from balances of opinion from business leaders 22
Public finance: investments, budget balance and debt Burkina : Debt, Investment and Fiscal balance 5 4-1 % of GDP 3 2-2 1-3 212 213 214 215 216 217-4 Total public debt Public investment rate Overall investment rate Overall fiscal balance (right scale) Source : FMI, mars 216 et BCEAO 2.2.2. The primary market 2.2.2.1. Focus on the first quarter and achievements since the beginning of 216 By invitation to tender 4 38 36 39 4 34 35 32 6 months 1 year 2 years 23
2.2.2.2. List of issuance (amount in billion CFA) Wording Date of issuance Maturity (years) Issuance Amount announced Amount submitted Amount withheld TM TMP BF - BT - 6 months - 2.July.16 2/1/16 1/2 Invitation to tender 35 78,4 38,5 4,75% 4,57% BJ - BT - 12 months - 16.February.17 18/2/16 1 Invitation to tender 35 53,72 35 5,6% 5,14% BJ - BT - 12 months - 16.February.17 1/3/16 2 Invitation to tender 4 61,94 4 5,45% 5,29% 2.2.2.3. Weighted average cost of debt per maturity since the beginning of 216 Weighted average cost 6 months; 13% 2 years; 61% 1 year; 26% 2.2.2.4. Output rate trend since the beginning of 216 7,% 6,% 5,% 4,% 3,% 23-Jan-14 13-Mar-14 9-May-14 1-Jul-14 11-Sep-14 1-Dec-14 31-Dec-14 Output rate trend 6,51% 5,99% 5,93% 6,5% 6,% 5,22% 5,14% 4,92% 5,29% 4,83% 4,57% 4,29% 4,34% 4,29% 4,37% 4,57% 3,87% 3,97% 3,91% 4,2% 21-Jan-15 6-Mar-15 17-Apr-15 2-May-15 26-Jun-15 7-Aug-15 11-Sep-15 21-Oct-15 16-Dec-15 21-Jan-16 19-Feb-16 11-Mar-16 8-Apr-16 BT-3 months BT-4 months BT-5 months BT-6 months BT-6 months BT-6 months OT-5 years BT-3 months BT-6 months BT-6 months OT-5 years OT-5 years BT-6 months BT-6 months BT-6 months OT-5 years BT-6 months BT-1 year BT-2 years OT-5 years 24
2.2.3. Outstanding 2.2.3.1. Level of outstanding public debt (amount in billion CFA) Identifier Wording Due date Outstanding C612G BF - 5.5% - 1 years - 29.July.17 29-July.-17 11 8 C6222F7 BF - 6.5% - 7 years- 17.September.16 BF - 6.5% - 7 years - 2.May.17 8 191 C6252F4 BF - 6.5% - 7 years - 2.May.17 2 May-17 18 962 524 531 BF166 TPBF 6.5% 211-216 (5 years) 21. dec-16 2 2 C6382E2 BF - 6.5% - 5 years- 25.October.17 25. oct-17 21 569 126 667 BF182 TPBF 6.5% 213-22 (7 years) 29. nov-2 121 6 C652E5 BF - 6.25% - 5 years - 31.December.19 31-Dec.-19 41 676 BF -BT - 6 MONTHS- 19.APRIL.16 BF - 6% - 5 years - 2.May.2 2 May-2 66 C657144 BF - BT - 6 months - 19.April.16 19 Apr.-16 44 C6582D1 BF - 6% - 5 years - 16.December.2 16. dec-2 3 72 BF497 BF - BT - 6 months - 2.July.16 2. Jul-16 38 5 BF55 BJ - BT - 12 months - 16.February.17 16. Feb-17 35 BF513 BF - BT - 24 months - 8.March.18 8 March-18 4 25
2.2.3.2. Debt service (Government securities) by year Debt service 2 15 Principal Voucher 1 5 216 217 218 219 22 Debt service 22; 9% 219; 12% 216; 35% 218; 2% 217; 24% 26
2.2.3.3 Analysis of the second quarter 2.2.3.3.1 Projected issuance Date of issuance Instrument Issuance Maturity (years) Amounts (billion) 7/4/16 OT Invitation to tender 5 4 19/5/16 BT Invitation to tender 1/2 4 16/6/16 OT Invitation to tender 3 4 2.2.3.3.2 Maturities of the quarter Instrument Date Principal Voucher BF - BT - 6 months - 19.April.16 19 Apr.-16 44 BF - 6% - 5 years - 2.May.2 2 May-16 3 96 BF - 6.5% - 7 years - 2.May.17 21 May-16 9 182 82 596 1 232 564 95 TPBF 6.5% 213-22 (7 years) 29 May-16 12 16 3 952 BF - 6.25% - 5 years - 31.December.19 3 June-16 5 29 5 1 32 375 27
2.2.4. Analysis of Government securities portfolio Geographic distribution of Burkina's security holders 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 34 2 23 1 21 16 4 15 Geographic distribution of Burkina's security holders Senegal; 11,39% Togo; 4,26% Benin; 9,71% Niger; 4,5% Mali; 6,11% Guinea-Bissau;,2% Côte d'ivoire; 6,67% Burkina Faso; 57,15% 28
2.3. Côte d Ivoire 2.3.1Identity card (with indicators) Macroeconomic indicators 21 211 212 213 214 215 216* GDP Growth rate 2, -4,4 1,7 9,2 8,5 9,5 9,8 Overall fiscal balance (% GDP) -1,8-4, -3,1-2,2-2,2-3,6-3,3 Current account balance 1,9 1,3-1,2-1,3-1,2-1,5-2,5 Money supply/gdp (%) 33,7 37,7 35,5 35,4 37,6 4,1 38,9 Savings rate 2,7 2,2 19,2 21,9 19,7 2,2 21,9 Inflation rate, annual average 1,7 4,9 1,3 2,6,5 1,2 1,9 Investment rates 13,4 4, 15, 19, 17, 17,5 2,4 Sources : BCEAO, estimates 213-215, (*) Projections or provisional data Quarterly overview of financial operations Level at end of March In billion FCFA 214 215 214 215 216* Revenue and donations 3 293,3 3 93,5 728,6 873,4 4 443,4 Expenditure 3 669,6 4 579,8 84,4 1 85,8 5 134,2 Total budgetary balance -376,2-676,3-75,8-212,4-69,8 % of GDP -2,2-3,6 - - -3,3 Sources: BCEAO, estimates 213-215, (*) Projections or provisional data Short-term indicators 214 215 216* T4 T1 T2 T3 T4 Janv. Févr. Industrial production, YOY (in %) 1,6-3,6 3,9 1,3 26, Index retail trade turnover,4 8,6 8,1 4,9 11,3 Changing money supply (stocks end of period, YOY (%)) 15,9 19,3 22, 23,6 18,8 - Dec. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Synthetic indicator of the economic situation (ISC). YOY (%) *. 1,9 5,2 5,3 5,3 5,3 Consumer prices, YOY (in %),9,8,5,8 1,4,3,8 Sources : BCEAO, BCEAO, estimates 213-215, (*) Projections or provisional data (**) This indicator is the result of algebraic synthesis of sectoral indicators of economic activity determined from balances of opinion from business leaders 29
Public finance: investments, budget balance and debt Ivory Coast : Debt, Investment and Fiscal balance 5 4-1 % of GDP 3 2 1-2 -3 212 213 214 215 216 217-4 Total public debt Public investment rate Overall investment rate Overall fiscal balance (right scale) 2.3.2.The primary market 2.3.2.1. Focus on the first quarter and achievements since the beginning of 216 By First invitation quarter of to 216 tender Invitation by tender Syndication 12 8 4 2 years 12 years 3
2.3.2.2. List of issuance (amount in billion CFA) Wording CI - BT - 24 months - 13.February.18 Value date Maturity (years) 17/2/16 2 Issuance Invitation to tender Amount announced Amount submitted Amount withheld Marginal rate Weighted average rate 6 93.6 6 5,5% 4,72% 2.3.2.3. Weighted average cost of debt per maturity since the beginning of 216 Weighted average cost 4,72% 5,% 2,5%,% 2 ans 2.3.2.4. Output rate trend since the beginning of 216 Output rate trend 8,5% 6,5% 4,5% 2,5% 16-Jan-14 26-Feb-14 7-Mar-14 24-Mar-14 16-Apr-14 29-Apr-14 2-May-14 25-Jun-14 15-Jul-14 5-Aug-14 16-Oct-14 29-Oct-14 19-Dec-14 19-Dec-14 13-Jan-15 14-May-15 11-Jun-15 24-Jun-15 5-Aug-15 5-Oct-15 14-Oct-15 4-Nov-15 5,1% 28-Dec-15 6,9% 17-Feb-16 6,98% 5,14% 5,57% 6,84% 6,54% 5,76% 6,29% 6,9% 5,88% 5,88% 3,2% 5,93% 5,52% 5,98% 5,98% 3,99% 4,3% 5,93% 5,84% 4,48% 5,83% 4,72% BT-1 OT-7 year years OT-7 years BT-1 BT-2 year years OT-8 OT-8 yearsyears* BT-2 years OT-3 years OT-5 years OT-5 years OT-5 OT-1 yearsot-7 years* years* BT-2 yearsot-1 years* years BT-1 year BT-1 OT-7 yearyears* OT-7 years BT-2 OT-5 yearsyears* BT-2 years 31
2.3.3. Outstanding 2.3.3.1. Level of outstanding public debt (amount in billion CFA) Identifier Wording Due date Outstanding A612F6 CI - 7% - 7 years - 9.September.16 9 - sept.-16 7 398 424 295 A6322F9 CI - 7% - 7 years - 19.February.17 19. Feb-17 36 788 CI112 TPCI 7% 21-217 (7 years) 1. oct-17 6 547 177 143 CI138 TPCI 6.5% 211-216 (5 years) 15 - sept.-16 53 411 89 A6D42E1 CI - 5.25% - 5 years - 9.December.16 9. dec-16 84 883 5 A6D62E9 CI - 6% - 5 years - 7.March.17 7 March-17 8 585 166 667 CI187 TPCI 6.5% 212-217 (5 years) 19 - sept.-17 62 455 333 333 A6E22F8 CI - 6.5% - 7 years - 29.March.2 29 March-2 8 43 94 CI113 TPCI 6% 213-216 (3 years) 8. Jul-16 12 88 61 A6E52E8 CI - 6.4% - 5 years - 1.July.18 1. Jul-18 36 457 816 667 A6E72F3 CI - 6.5% - 7 years - 29.March.2 29 March-2 71 792 16 CI1129 TPCI 6.3% 213-218 (5 years) 3. dec-18 97 685 A6F52F2 CI - 6.5% - 7 years - 26.February.21 26. Feb-21 241 767 67 A6F62F1 CI - 6.5% - 7 years - 7.March.21 7 March-21 29 256 A6F81B CI - BT - 24 months - 12.April.16 12 Apr.-16 41 85 A6F92T9 CI - 6.55% - 8 years - 29.April.22 29. Apr-22 124 CI116 TPCI 6.55% 214-222 (8 years) 2 May-22 61 832 81 A6G1B6 CI - BT - 24 months - 21.June.16 21 June-16 73 839 A6G12C1 CI - 6% - 3 years - 15.July.17 15. Jul-17 27 2 A6G22E6 CI - 6% - 5 years - 5.August.19 5 August-19 7 85 35 A6G32E5 CI - 5.8% - 5 years - 16.October.19 16. oct-19 57 42 52 A6G42E4 CI - 5.8% - 5 years - 29.October.19 29. oct-19 43 2 CI1293 TPCI 3% 214-224 (1 years) 19. dec-24 99 923 95 CI131 TPCI 5.85% 214-221 (7 years) 19. dec-21 174 914 82 A6G51B1 CI - BT - 24 months - 9.January.17 9. Jan-17 52 81 CI1681 TPCI 5.99% 215-225 (1 years) 14 May-25 133 269 45 A6G62G7 CI - 5.99% - 1 years - 11.June.25 11 June-25 11 A6G71A1 CI - BT - 12 months - 21.June.16 21 June-16 1 1 A6G81A CI - BT - 12 months - 2.August.16 2 August-16 33 CI? TPCI 5.85% 215-222 (7 years) 5. oct-22 156 993 33 A6G92F6 CI - 5.85% - 7 years - 14.October.22 14. oct-22 11 A6H1B4 CI - BT - 24 months - 31.October.17 31. oct-17 5 CI2? TPCI 5.75% 215-22 (5 years) 28. dec-2 15 CI1756 CI - BT - 24 months - 13.February.18 13. Feb-18 6 32
2.3.3.2. Debt service (Government securities) by year Debt service 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Principal Voucher 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 Debt service 223; 2% 224; 2% 225; 1% 222; 5% 221; 8% 216; 22% 22; 12% 217; 17% 219; 14% 218; 17% 33
2.3.3. Analysis of the second quarter 2.3.3.3.1. Issuance scheduled for the quarter Date of issuance Instrument Issuance Maturity (years) Amounts (billion) 8/4/16 OT Syndication 12 125 12/4/16 BT Invitation to tender 1 5 21/4/16 OT Invitation to tender 7 7 3/5/16 OT Invitation to tender 3 61 1/5/16 OT Syndication 1 15 2.3.3.3.2. Maturities of the quarter Instrument Date Principal Voucher TPCI 5.85% 215-222 (7 years) 5 Apr.-16 4 592 54 93 CI - BT - 24 months - 12.April.16 12 Apr.-16 41 85 CI - BT - 12 months - 11.April.17 13 Apr.-16 2 145 173 333 CI - 5.8% - 5 years - 16.October.19 16 Apr.-16 1 664 673 8 CI - 6.55% - 8 years - 29.April.22 29 Apr.-16 8 122 CI - 5.8% - 5 years - 29.October.19 29 Apr.-16 1 252 8 TPCI 5.99% 215-225 (1 years) 14 May-16 7 982 84 55 TPCI 6.55% 214-222 (8 years) 2 May-16 4 5 49 55 CI - 6.5% - 7 years - 26.February.21 26 May-16 3 928 724 638 TPCI 6.3% 213-218 (5 years) 3 June-16 16 28 833 333 3 77 77 5 CI - 5.99% - 1 years - 11.June.25 11 June-16 6 589 TPCI 3% 214-224 (1 years) 19 June-16 1 498 859 25 TPCI 5.85% 214-221 (7 years) 19 June-16 5 116 258 485 CI - BT - 24 months - 21.June.16 21 June-16 73 839 CI - BT - 12 months - 21.June.16 21 June-16 1 1 TPCI 5.75% 215-22 (5 years) 28 June-16 15 4 312 5 34
2.3.4. Analysis of Government securities portfolio Geographic distribution of Côte d'ivoire's security holders 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 17 153 669 4 122 23 268 52 Geographic distribution of Côte d'ivoire's security holders Togo; 3,55% Benin; 11,64% Senegal; 18,34% Burkina Faso; 1,46% Niger; 1,56% Mali; 8,35% Guinea-Bissau;,28% Côte d'ivoire; 45,82% 35