21 November 2016 Corporate Update IOI Properties Group Berhad Proposes rights issue Maintain NEUTRAL Revised Target Price (TP): RM2.34 (Previously: RM2.65) INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS Proposes rights issue to reduce gearing Proposed rights issue did not come as surprise Neutral on the corporate exercise Maintain Neutral with revise TP of RM2.34 RETURN STATS Price (18 Nov 2016) Target Price RM2.43 RM2.34 Proposes rights issue. IOI Properties Group Berhad (IOIPG) proposed to undertake a renounceable rights issue of up to 1.11b new shares at an issue price of RM1.38 per rights share on the basis of one rights share for every four existing four IOIPG shares. IOIPG intends to undertake the rights issue on a full subscription basis by procuring undertaking by substantial shareholders. Note that this is the second rights issue of IOIPG in two years where the previous rights issue took place in November 2014. The proposed rights issue is expected to be completed by 1QCY2017. Upon completion of the rights issue, share base is expected to expand by 25% to 5.53b shares from 4.42b shares. Proposed rights issue did not come as surprise. We are not entirely surprised by the proposed rights issue as management had previously stated they do not rule the possibility of undertaking an equity fund raising exercise to pare down its borrowings following the successful tender of land in Singapore on 11 November 2016. Recall that IOIPG has successfully tendered for a parcel of leasehold land at Central Boulevard in Singapore s Marine Bay for a tender consideration of S$2.59b (RM7.77b) while IOIPG intends to fund the land tender mainly via bank borrowings. Neutral on the corporate exercise. IOIPG intends to utilise the entire proceeds from rights issue of RM1.5b for repayment of borrowings. We are neutral on this as the rights issue would address the estimated high net gearing of IOIPG of 0.71x post acquisition of Singapore land. Net gearing of IOIPG is estimated to shrink to 0.56x post rights issue, around our comfortable net gearing level of 0.50x. Meanwhile, the issue price of RM1.38 per rights share represents a discount of 35.5% to the theoretical ex-rights price of RM2.14 based on 5-day VWAP of RM2.33. The rights issue price of RM1.38 appears to be attractive as the 35.5% discount to theoretical ex-rights price is steeper than 28% discount of rights share price to theoretical ex-rights price back in November 2014. Expected Share Price Return -3.7% Expected Dividend Yield 3.3% Expected Total Return -0.4% STOCK INFO KLCI 1,623.80 Bursa / Bloomberg Board / Sector Syariah Compliant 5249/IOIPG MK Main/Properties Yes Issued shares (mil) 4,411.22 Par Value (RM) 1.00 Market cap. (RM m) 10,719.25 Price over NA 0.67 52-wk price Range RM2.01-RM2.65 Beta (against KLCI) 0.94 3-mth Avg Daily Vol 2.85m 3-mth Avg Daily Value Major Shareholders RM7.12m Vertical Capacity Sdn Bhd 50.98% Summervest Sdn Bhd 8.48% EPF 5.04% MIDF RESEARCH is a unit of MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK Kindly refer to the last page of this publication for important disclosures
Maintain Neutral with a revised TP of RM2.34. We maintain our earnings forecast for FY17/18. However, we have reduced our EPS forecast for FY18 as the increased share base post proposed rights issue is expected to dilute FY18 EPS by 20% to 15.5sen from 19.3sen. Meanwhile, our TP for IOIPG has been revised to RM2.34 from RM2.65 after factoring the higher enlarged share base. Our TP is based on unchanged 40% discount to fully-diluted RNAV. Maintain Neutral on IOIPG pending details on development plan and project GDV from the Singapore and China Xia Men land IOIPG tendered recently. Figure 1: Net Gearing RM mil End FY16 Post Xia Men land (50% cash 50% borrowings) Post Marina Bay land (Assume 10% cash 90% borrowings) Post rights issue Cash 2,087 1,387 617 617 Borrowings 4,262 4,962 11,955 10,423 Total equity 15,885 15,885 15,885 17,406 Net Gearing 0.14 0.23 0.71 0.56 Source: MIDF Research estimate Investment Statistics FYE June (RM m) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E Revenue 1,454 1,906 3,025 3,123 3,148 EBIT 1,069 1,006 1,290 1,019 1,041 PBT 1,120 1,130 1,525 1,142 1,164 Net Income 890 891 1,080 839 856 Core Net Income 387 574 813 839 856 EPS (sen) 31.9 25.8 24.4 19.0 15.5 Core EPS (sen) 13.9 16.7 18.4 19.0 15.5 Net DPS (sen) 8.0 6.0 8.0 8.0 6.4 Net Div Yield 3.3% 2.5% 3.3% 3.3% 2.6% Core PER 17.5 14.6 13.2 12.8 15.7 NTA/share 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.4 P/NTA 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 Core ROE 3.5% 4.3% 5.1% 5.1% 5% Core ROA 2.6% 3.1% 3.6% 3.6% 4% Source: MIDF Research 2
IOIPG RNAV Stake Est remaining GDV (RM m) WACC (%) Value (RM m) Klang Valley Projects 16 Sierra, South Puchong 100% 2745 11% 312 Bandar Puchong Jaya, Puchong 100% 750 11% 99 Bandar Puteri, Puchong 100% 2837 11% 338 IOI Resort City, Putrajaya 100% 19200 11% 1139 Bandar Puteri Bangi, Selangor 100% 3450 11% 411 Bandar Puteri Warisan, Sepang 100% 1083 11% 142 Johor Projects Bandar Putra Kulai, Johor 100% 1592 11% 151 Bandar Putra Segamat, Johor 100% 18 11% 3 Taman Lagenda Putra, Kulai, Johor 100% 27 11% 4 Taman Kempas Utama, Johor Bahru, Johor 100% 812 11% 102 The Platino, Johor Bahru, Johor 100% 100 11% 13 i-synergy, Senai, Kulai, Johor 100% 1720 11% 205 Other States Projects Desaria, Sungai Ara, Penang 100% 156 11% 21 Bandar IOI, Bahau, Negeri Sembilan 100% 806 11% 96 Singapore Projects South Beach, Beach Road, Singapore 50% 1667 11% 109 The Trilinq @ Jalan Lempeng, Singapore 88% 1250 11% 138 Cape Royale @ Sentosa Cove, Singapore 65% 4500 11% 270 Cityscape @ Farrer Park, Singapore 60% 1200 11% 73 Seascape @ Sentosa Cove 50% 825 11% 52 China Projects IOI Park Bay, Xiamen, PRC 100% 419 11% 55 IOI Palm City, Xiamen, PRC 100% 2170 11% 247 Unbilled sales 1500 186 Subtotal 4165 Remaining Landbank Net Surplus (RM m) Nusa Jaya 100% 0 Mukim of Pulai 100% 16 0 Segamat 100% 1254 0 Kulai Jaya 100% 467 0 Ayer Keroh 100% 1338 0 Bandar IOI, Bahau 100% 745 0 Investment Properties 100% 0 Total 4165 Shareholder Funds 17406.0 Total RNAV 21571 Enlarged share base 5534.8 Fully-diluted RNAV per share (RM) 3.90 Discount 40% Target Price (RM) 2.34 Source: MIDF Research 3
DAILY PRICE CHART Jessica Low Jze Tieng Jessica.low@midf.com.my 03-2173 8391 Source: Bloomberg 4
MIDF RESEARCH is part of MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Berhad (23878 - X). (Bank Pelaburan) (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER This report has been prepared by MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD (23878-X). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Readers should be fully aware that this report is for information purposes only. The opinions contained in this report are based on information obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable. MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained therein and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. All opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice. The research analysts will initiate, update and cease coverage solely at the discretion of MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD. The directors, employees and representatives of MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD may have interest in any of the securities mentioned and may benefit from the information herein. Members of the MIDF Group and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such companies whose securities are mentioned herein This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published in any form or for any purpose. MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK : GUIDE TO RECOMMENDATIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY TRADING BUY NEUTRAL SELL TRADING SELL Total return is expected to be >15% over the next 12 months. Stock price is expected to rise by >15% within 3-months after a Trading Buy rating has been assigned due to positive newsflow. Total return is expected to be between -15% and +15% over the next 12 months. Total return is expected to be <-15% over the next 12 months. Stock price is expected to fall by >15% within 3-months after a Trading Sell rating has been assigned due to negative newsflow. SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS POSITIVE NEUTRAL NEGATIVE The sector is expected to outperform the overall market over the next 12 months. The sector is to perform in line with the overall market over the next 12 months. The sector is expected to underperform the overall market over the next 12 months. 5