Small Acquisition in Bangsar South
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- Theresa Perkins
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1 UOA Development Bhd Small Acquisition in Bangsar South By Sarah Lim l sarahlim@kenanga.com.my News UOAD announced that it has acquired 2 ordinary shares of RM1.00 each in Fabullane Development S/B which in turn owns 1.92 ac of freehold land adjacent to Bangsar South City (BSC) (same row as UOAD s Southview). The implied cost of the land is around RM24.4m (RM2,91psf) as UOAD will assume the liabilities of Fabullane. Comments No GDV guidance as the company will only be embarking on the land s development in 1-2 years time. However, based on Southview s GDV per acre of RM225m, we derive a GDV of c. RM0.43b. The land price is fair considering that market prices in the area (for small plots) are going for RM psf. We are unable to compare land prices with Southview as the acquisition was made some years back. Based on our assumed GDV, land cost makes up some 6% of GDV, which is attractive considering that land cost tends to make up 10%-15% of GDV nowadays. The acquisition will be funded internally and impact to its net cash position is minimal. We are NEUTRAL on the acquisition. While it bodes well for the group in the medium to longer term for landbank, the acquisition is quite small and contributions from this project is unlikely in the next 1-2 years. Impact on RNAV is minimal. Based on our GDV estimates, this increases our FD RNAV by 3 sen (+0.9%) to RM3.73. We are also taking the opportunity to update our FD RNAV to RM3.75 after taking into account the net positive impact arising from its increased share base from the DRPs and higher GDV for Southview and Scenaria. Assuming unchanged RNAV discount of 46%, this would increase our TP to RM2.04 (from RM2.00). Outlook We do not expect any new launches in 4Q14 as the group will concentrate on converting its booking sales into SPA (e.g. Southbank, Sentul Village). Key launches for FY15 are expected to amount to a total GDV of RM2.23b. Forecast No changes to earnings. Rating Valuation Our CALL/TP is pending our upcoming sector strategy report. We are increasingly concerned about the challenging property landscape. Our previous recommendation was MARKET PERFORM with a TP of RM2.00. Price: Target Price: Share Price Performance RM2.10 KLCI 1, YTD KLCI chg -5.4% YTD stock price chg 8.2% Stock Information Bloomberg Ticker UOAD MK Equity Market Cap (RM m) 3,005.1 Issued shares 1, week range (H) week range (L) mth avg daily vol: 608,416 Free Float 28% Beta 1.0 Major Shareholders PAK LIM KONG 63.9% EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT 4.7% SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BU 3.5% Summary Earnings Table FYE Dec (RM m) 2013A 2014E 2015E Turnover 1, ,097 EBIT PBT Net Profit (NP) Core NP Consensus (CNP) n.a Earnings Revision n.a. n.a. n.a. Core EPS (sen) Core EPS growth (%) 14% -23% 11% NDPS (sen) BV/Share (RM) Core PER (x) Price/BV (x) Net Gearing (x) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) Dividend Yield (%) 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% Risks to Our Call Unable to meet its sales target or better-thanexpected sales/earnings. Unexpected en-bloc sales of office inventories. Sector risks, including further negative policies. PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 1 of 5
2 OTHER POINTS FD RNAV On-going projects and unbilled sales Stake Assumed Duration (Yrs) Remaining GDV + Unbilled Sales (RM'm) Remaining Net Profit *** (RM'm) WACC (%) DCF Value (RM m)*** Camellia 100% % 17 Le Yuen Residence 100% % 63 Vertical Office Suites - Phase 1 & 2 100% % BSC Desa 8 85% % 5 North Kiara Hills 60% % 74 Desa Green 70% % 104 Kencana Square 39% 7 1, % 76 Kepong Business Park 100% % 15 Villa Pines 100% % 6 Bkt Ceylon 54% % 13 South View Residence 100% % 165 Desa III 70% % 3 Sub-total 15% 658 Future Projects Stake Assumed Duration (Yrs) GDV (RM'm) Remaining Net Profit *** (RM'm) WACC (%) DCF Value (RM m)*** Desa II (Commercial) - Phase II 85% % 55 Bangsar South Land (Commercial) 100% 8 3, % 462 Bangsar South Land (Residential) 100% 8 1, % 266 Jalan Ipoh Land + extension 100% 5 2, % 466 Kepong V Land 100% 5 1, % 186 Land around Bangsar South 100% % 99 Land near Southview (1.92ac) 100% % 53 Sentul Land 100% 5 2, % 284 Jln Klang Lama 60% % 36 Sub-total 1,908 Projects Stake Book Value (RM'm) Market Value (RM'm) Surplus / (Deficit) after tax (RM'm) *** Inventory 100% Investment Property 100% *** after shareholding Revised Asset Value 2,702 Shareholder's Funds (at 30/9/14) RNAV 5,364 RNAV per share (RM) MYR 3.75 No of paid-up shares ('m) 1,432 Applied Discount (based on slight premium to peer's discount) Target Price (RM) Under Review Under Review PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 2 of 5
3 Income Statement Financial Data & Ratios FY Dec (RM m) 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E FY Dec (RM m) 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue Growth (%) EBITDA Revenue Depreciation EBITDA EBIT EBIT Interest Expense Pre-tax Income Investing Net Income Associate/JCE Core Net Income Exceptionals/FV PBT Profitability (%) Taxation EBITDA Margin Minority Interest EBIT Margin Net Profit PBT Margin Core Net Profit Core Net Margin Effective Tax Rate Balance Sheet ROE FY Dec (RM m) 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E ROA Fixed Assets Intangibles Other FA DuPont Analysis Inventories Net margin (%) Receivables Assets Turnover (x) Other CA Leverage Factor (x) Cash ROE (%) Total Assets Leverage Payables Debt/Asset (x) ST Borrowings Debt/Equity (x) Other ST Liability Net Debt/(Cash) (105) (174) (304) (768) (851) LT Borrowings Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.06) (0.08) (0.12) (0.27) (0.28) Other LT Liability Minority Int Valuations Net Assets Core EPS (sen) NDPS (sen) Share Capital BV/share (RM) Reserves Core PER (x) Shareholders Equity Net Div. Yield (%) PBV (x) Cashflow Statement EV/EBITDA (x) FY Dec (RM m) 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E Operating CF Investing CF Financing CF Net Change in Cash Free Cash Flow Core PER Band Fwd PBV Band RM PRICE (RM) Core EPS 6.0 x 7.0 x 8.0 x 9.0 x 10.0 x x Fwd Average PBV +0.5SD Fwd Average PBV -0.5SD Fwd Average PBV +1SD Fwd Average PBV -1SD Fwd Average PBV +1.5SD Fwd Average PBV -1.5SD Fwd Average PBV +2SD Fwd Average PBV -2SD Fwd PBV Average Fwd PBV since listing Source: Bloomberg, Kenanga Research PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 3 of 5
4 Peer Comparison NAME Price / TEAP (10/12/14) Mkt Cap PER (x) Est. NDiv. Yld. Historical ROE P/BV Net Profit (RMm) FY13/14 NP Growth FY14/15 NP Growth Target Price (RM) (RMm) FY13/14 FY14/15 FY15/16 (%) (%) (x) FY13/14 FY14/15 FY15/16 (%) (%) (RM) Rating UEM Sunrise* , % 10.2% % -26.3% IOI Properties* ^ % 4.3% % 23.0% SP Setia* , % 8.7% % 55.1% Sunway Berhad % 33.6% % 6.0% IJM Land* , % 17.7% % 4.8% Mah Sing Group , % 17.6% % 15.2% UOA Development* , % 16.0% % 10.8% Tropicana , % 15.3% % -17.6% Matrix Concepts , % 29.8% % 13.8% Crescendo* % 18.4% % 10.5% Hua Yang % 22.8% % 6.5% Crest Builder % 8.9% % 56.5% MRCB , % -2.5% % 36.8% * Core NP and Core PER ** Crescendo per share data is based on non-fully Diluted ^ Post Rights Estimates. Last Price is based on TEAP. BERJAYA LAND BHD , n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.7% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a NEUTRAL IGB CORPORATION BHD , % 5.3% % 9.1% 4.80 NEUTRAL YNH PROPERTY BHD % 5.6% % 15.6% 1.97 NEUTRAL YTL LAND & DEVELOPMENT BHD n.a n.a. 3.2% n.a n.a. n.a. n.a. NEUTRAL GLOMAC BHD % 12.0% % 13.8% 1.02 SELL KSL HOLDINGS BHD , % 14.9% % -10.3% n.a. BUY PARAMOUNT CORP BHD % 9.1% % 0.0% 1.71 BUY IVORY PROPERTIES GROUP BHD n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.5% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. BUY TAMBUN INDAH LAND BHD % 30.3% % 21.0% 2.30 BUY PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 4 of 5
5 Stock Ratings are defined as follows: Stock Recommendations OUTPERFORM : A particular stock s Expected Total Return is MORE than 10% (an approximation to the 5-year annualised Total Return of FBMKLCI of 10.2%). MARKET PERFORM : A particular stock s Expected Total Return is WITHIN the range of 3% to 10%. UNDERPERFORM : A particular stock s Expected Total Return is LESS than 3% (an approximation to the 12-month Fixed Deposit Rate of 3.15% as a proxy to Risk-Free Rate). Sector Recommendations*** OVERWEIGHT : A particular sector s Expected Total Return is MORE than 10% (an approximation to the 5-year annualised Total Return of FBMKLCI of 10.2%). NEUTRAL : A particular sector s Expected Total Return is WITHIN the range of 3% to 10%. UNDERWEIGHT : A particular sector s Expected Total Return is LESS than 3% (an approximation to the 12-month Fixed Deposit Rate of 3.15% as a proxy to Risk-Free Rate). ***Sector recommendations are defined based on market capitalisation weighted average expected total return for stocks under our coverage. This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may read this document. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees. Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad and its associates, their directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise, and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealings with respect to these companies. Published and printed by: KENANGA INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD (15678-H) 8th Floor, Kenanga International, Jalan Sultan Ismail, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Telephone: (603) Facsimile: (603) Website: Chan Ken Yew Head of Research PP7004/02/2013(031762) Page 5 of 5
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