WEEKLY NEWSLETTER The Markets Remain Pessimistic #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff United States: Housing starts and resales climbed slightly in October. ff United States: New orders for durable goods fell once again. ff Canada: The total annual inflation rate rose from % to 2.4%. ff Canada: Retail sales increased slightly in September, but wholesale sales declined. A LOOK AHEAD ff United States: Will new home sales also post a slight rebound? ff Canada: Real GDP by industry could grow approximately in September. ff Canada: The third quarter as a whole is expected to end with a 1.7% increase in real GDP. FINANCIAL MARKETS ff Pessimism persists on stock markets. ff Oil prices tumble to their lowest level in a year. ff Oil prices and concerns about the global economy still penalize the loonie. CONTENTS Key Statistics of the Week... 2 United States, Canada A Look Ahead... 4 United States, Canada, Overseas Financial Markets... 3 Economic Indicators of the Week... 6 Tables Economic indicators... 8 Major financial indicators...10 François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Mathieu D Anjou, Deputy Chief Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist, Economic Studies: 514 281 2336 or 1 866 866 7000, ext. 5552336 desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Group. Copyright 2018, Group. All rights reserved.
Key Statistics of the Week UNITED STATES CANADA ff Housing starts rose 1.5% in October after falling 5.5% in September. Annualized new construction numbers went from 1,210,000 units to 1,228,000. This level remains relatively low and represents a % drop compared with October 2017 levels. The increase was due primarily to multi-unit housing (+6.2%), with single-family dwelling starts declining 1.8%. Building permits fell % to 1,263,000 units. ff The total consumer price index (CPI) was up % in October, slightly above expectations. The total annual inflation rate rose from % to 2.4%. After two months of sharp declines driven mostly by the drop in air fares, the annual inflation rate started to climb again in October. This increase should be fleeting, however, as a fresh decline is expected as early as November. According to the weekly surveys at the pump, gas prices are currently showing a 9.6% drop in November, which could end up contributing -% to the CPI s monthly change. If we also take into account the seasonal price drop that usually occurs in November, the balance for the month looks quite negative, which could drive down the annual change in the CPI to below 2%. ff After six monthly decreases in a row, existing home sales recorded a 1.4% increase in October. This gain seems modest when compared to the 8.0% total decrease posted since March. Annualized sales reached 5,220,000 units. The hike was much bigger for condominiums (+5.3%) than for singlefamily dwellings (+%). ff New orders for durable goods plunged 4.4% in October after dipping (revised from +%). For the second month in a row, orders for civilian aircraft dropped sharply, along with a significant pullback in orders for military aircraft (-59.3%, following +117.1% in September). Excluding transportation, new orders were up by only. New orders for capital goods excluding aviation and defence stagnated after dipping % in September and in August. ff The leading indicator gained only in October after climbing % in September. This marks the weakest monthly growth since September 2017. Household confidence and interest rates were the main positive contributors. The drop of the stock market and the rise in the number of jobless claims took the biggest bites. Dropping from 7.2% to 5.9%, the annual change in the leading indicator fell to its lowest rate in 2018. ff Retail sales rose in September. An increase was noted in 6 of the 11 major sectors, representing approximately 75% of retail trade as a whole. Still, significant declines were posted for service stations (because of lower gasoline prices) and in building materials and gardening supplies stores. Expressed in real terms, sales rose %, which helped to partly make up some of the ground lost during the previous three months. ff Wholesale sales fell % in September, far below forecasts. Furthermore, wholesale distributors of machines, equipment and supplies posted a 2.0% drop in sales for the month. In real terms, sales fell %. However, inventories rose, such that the total impact of wholesaling on economic growth will be practically nil for September. Benoit P. Durocher, Senior economist Francis Généreux, Senior economist 2
Financial Markets Oil Prices Slump Again The U.S. stock market tumbled early in the week, spurred by investors doubts about the strength of the global economy. Technology companies were the most affected. The stock market settled somewhat on Wednesday, as Americans were getting ready for Thanksgiving on Thursday. The S&P 500 index was heading for a weekly loss of about 3.8% at the time of writing. Canada s stock market plunged on Tuesday, weighed down by concerns. It fully recouped its losses on Wednesday, buoyed by expectations of corporate tax cuts. The stock market was fairly stable on Thursday, but resumed its slide on Friday. The S&P/TSX was heading for a weekly loss of about 1.7% Friday morning. The easing of tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia over the Khashoggi affair had investors expecting a surplus on the oil market in the months ahead. This exacerbated the downward pressures on oil prices. There was very little movement on the U.S. bond market this week. The 2 year and 10 year yields were around 2.80% and 5%, respectively. In Canada, the 2 year yield was trending slightly higher for the week, while the price of Western Canadian oil ticked up temporarily. However, it shed all of its gains on Friday. As a result, the 2 year and 10 year yields were around 5% and 5% Friday morning. GRAPH 1 Stock markets Index Index 2,825 15,700 2,800 15,500 2,775 2,750 15,300 2,725 15,100 2,700 2,675 14,900 2,650 2,625 14,700 2018/10/11 2018/10/19 2018/10/29 2018/11/06 2018/11/14 2018/11/22 S&P 500 (left) S&P/TSX (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 2 Bond markets 10-year yield In % points -3 In % -5 The greenback bounced back during Tuesday s session, just when the appetite for risk was particularly weak. The U.S. dollar depreciated slightly before it advanced against several other currencies on Friday. The euro was back to below US$4 at the time of writing. Economic activity indexes published on Friday pointed to a new slowdown in euro zone economic growth. The pound did a little better than the euro this week as the United Kingdom and the European Union may soon agree on a Brexit deal, despite the recent reticence expressed by both sides. The higher inflation data in Canada did little to help the loonie. Earlier this week, the cautious remarks made by the Bank of Canada s Carolyn Wilkins penalized the currency. Weak oil prices and a strong aversion to risk are also hurting the loonie, which was trading below US$6 at the time of writing. 3.1-7 -9 2.7-1 -3-5 2018/10/11 2018/10/19 Spread (left) 2018/10/29 2018/11/06 United States (right) 2018/11/14 2018/11/22 Canada (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies GRAPH 3 Currency markets US$/C$ Hendrix Vachon, Senior Economist Carine Bergevin-Chammah, Economist US$/ 75 6 70 5 65 4 60 3 55 50 11/10/2018 2 19/10/2018 29/10/2018 06/11/2018 Canadian dollar (left) 14/11/2018 22/11/2018 Euro (right) Sources: Datastream and, Economic Studies 3
A Look Ahead UNITED STATES TUESDAY November 27-9:00 September y/y 5.30% 5.30% August 5.49% S&P/Case Shiller index of existing home prices (September) Monthly growth for existing home prices was once again relatively slow in August. This trend has been the norm since early spring. We expect a slightly sharper monthly change in the S&P/Case Shiller index for September, but the gain will still be weaker than it was a year ago. The annual change should continue to slow, slipping from 5.5% to 5.3%. This is a far cry from the 6.8% peak recorded last March. TUESDAY November 27-10:00 November 136.0 135.0 October 137.9 Conference Board consumer confidence index (November) Due to a fourth consecutive monthly increase, the Conference Board index reached its highest level since September 2000. A slight decrease is now expected for November. The modest decline in the University of Michigan index, the stock market decline and the recent increase in jobless claims are all signs that it may be running out of steam. That said, falling gas prices could provide some support. All told, the Conference Board s consumer confidence index should hit 135.0. WEDNESDAY November 28-10:00 October ann. rate 580,000 595,000 September 553,000 New home sales (October) There has been no monthly increase in sales of new single family homes since May. The decline recorded in September was quite sharp, at -5.5%. This brought sales down to 553,000 units, the lowest level since December 2016. This poor performance was likely made worse by the hurricane. A slight increase is therefore expected for October. Existing home sales posted a modest uptick in October. The number of building permits for single-family homes also points to higher new home sales. We expect sales to reach 595,000 units, which is still relatively weak. THURSDAY November 29 - October m/m % September Consumer spending (October) Real consumption posted another solid advance in September, with a monthly gain of % on the heels of a increase. This allowed consumption to reach an annualized growth of 4.0% in Q3. We expect another gain in October. Retail sales for the month bode well for the consumption of goods. However, the data on food services and energy production suggest fairly weak advances in consumption on the services side. All in all, real consumption should see an increase of. In current dollars, the gain should reach %, thanks to a % gain in the consumer expenditure deflator. The annual change in the deflator should rise from 2.0% to %, while the core deflator, which excludes food and energy, will likely drop from 2.0% to %. CANADA THURSDAY November 29 - Q3 2018 $B -1-1 Q2 2018-15.9 Current account (Q3) International trade figures show that exports increased by 2.6% in the third quarter, while imports were down. That should open the door to an improvement in the current account balance, which could increase from -$15.9B to -$1B. FRIDAY November 30 - September August Real GDP by industry (September) September s economic results were fairly mixed. In real terms, manufacturing and wholesale sales declined, and the number of hours worked fell in September. On the other hand, inventories are up for several components and activity in the energy sector seems to have been quite strong. The bottom line is that real GDP by industry is expected tick up by in September. m/m 4
FRIDAY November 30 - Q3 2018 ann. rate 2.0% 1.7% Q2 2018 % Real GDP (Q3) After the fairly rapid rise in the second quarter, real GDP growth should decline to a less sustained pace in the third quarter. If we add the gain expected for real GDP by industry in September to the and increases recorded in July and August, respectively, the third quarter could very well end with a gain of about 1.7% (annualized). This is a slightly weaker forecast than our most recent scenario. In terms of the real GDP components, international trade should make a positive contribution to growth due to a drop in imports. In contrast, domestic demand may post a weaker advance due to the expected decline in residential investment and a slower rise in consumer spending. OVERSEAS DURING THE WEEK : Economic indicators Several major indicators for October will be released in the next few days. The weak readings of many of these indicators pointed to a decline in real GDP in the third quarter; we ll see if they offer hope for a rebound in the last quarter of 2018. Retail sales figures will be made public on Wednesday evening. Industrial production, housing start and unemployment numbers will come out the next day. THURSDAY November 29 - : Confidence indexes The downward trend in Euroland s confidence indexes generally continued in October. The disappointing increase in real GDP last summer reflected this deteriorating confidence. The numbers for most of these indexes for November will be announced on Thursday. After having momentarily improved in October, the preliminary version of the consumer confidence index for November showed another decline, this time from -2.7 to -3.9. In addition, the PMI indexes continued to fall in November according to the preliminary versions, and the Euroland composite index dropped to its lowest level since December 2014. Among the other indicators to be released this week, the advance estimate for November s inflation will come out on Friday, while the German Ifo business climate index will be made public on Monday. 5
Economic Indicators Week of November 26 to 30, 2018 Day Hour Indicator Period Previous data UNITED STATES MONDAY 26 TUESDAY 27 7:45 9:00 10:00 14:30 Speech of the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, R. Clarida S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (y/y) 5.30% 5.30% 5.49% Consumer confidence 136.0 135.0 137.9 Speeches of the Atlanta Fed President, R. Bostic, Chicago Fed President, C. Evans, and Kansas City Fed President, E. George WEDNESDAY 28 10:00 12:00 Goods trade balance preliminary (US$B) Real GDP (ann. rate) Retail inventories preliminary (m/m) Wholesale inventories preliminary (m/m) New home sales (ann. rate) Speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman, J. Powell THURSDAY 29 Initial unemployment claims Personal income (m/m) Personal consumption expenditures (m/m) Personal consumption expenditures deflator Total (m/m) Excluding food and energy (m/m) Total (y/y) Excluding food and energy (y/y) 10:00 Pending home sales (m/m) 14:00 Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting 14:00 Speech of the Chicago Fed President, C. Evans FRIDAY 30 9:00 9:45 Speech of the New York Fed President, J. Williams Chicago PMI index Q3s -76.3 3.6% 580,000-77.1 3.5% 595,000-76.3 3.5% 553,000 19-23 220,000 217,000 % 221,000 % % % % % % 2.0% 2.0% % 58.5 57.5 58.4 CANADA MONDAY 26 TUESDAY 27 WEDNESDAY 28 THURSDAY 29 Current account balance ($B) Average weekly earnings (y/y) Number of salaried employees (m/m) Q3-1 -1 % -15.9 % FRIDAY 30 Industrial product price index (m/m) Raw materials price index (m/m) Real GDP by industry (m/m) Real GDP (ann. rate) Q3 2.0% % -5.0% 1.7% -% % Note:, Economic Studies are involved every week in the Bloomberg survey for Canada and the United States. Approximately 15 economists are consulted for the Canadian survey and a hundred or so for the United States. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. Following the quarter, the abbreviations f, s and t correspond to first estimate, second estimate and third estimate respectively. The times shown are Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5 hours). Forecast of, Economic Studies of the Group. 6
Economic Indicators Week of November 26 to 30, 2018 Country Hour Indicator Period m/m (q/q) y/y Previous data m/m (q/q) y/y OVERSEAS SUNDAY 25 19:30 PMI manufacturing index preliminary 5 MONDAY 26 4:00 4:00 4:00 Ifo survey Business climate Ifo survey Current situation Ifo survey Expectations 10 105.3 99.2 102.8 105.9 99.8 TUESDAY 27 France 2:45 Consumer confidence 94 95 WEDNESDAY 28 4:00 7:00 18:50 Money supply M3 Consumer confidence Retail sales Dec. 1 % 3.6% 1 2.6% - THURSDAY 29 South Korea France France United Kingdom China China --2:45 2:45 8:00 1 1 18:50 19:01 20:00 20:00 Bank of Korea meeting Personal consumption expenditures Real GDP preliminary Business climate Consumer confidence final Industrial confidence Services confidence Economic confidence Consumer price index preliminary Consumer price index Tokyo Unemployment rate Industrial production preliminary Consumer confidence PMI manufacturing index PMI non-manufacturing index 1.75% 1.50% % % -1.7% Q3 1.5% 7 1-3.9-3.9 2.4 13.2 13.6 109.1 109.8 % % % % 1.2% % - -11-10 5 5 53.8 53.9 FRIDAY 30 United Kingdom France Italy Italy Italy 0:00 0:00 2:00 2:00 2:45 4:00 6:00 Consumer confidence Housing starts Nationwide house prices Retail sales Consumer price index preliminary Unemployment rate Consumer price index estimate Unemployment rate Consumer price index preliminary Real GDP final 43.2 4 % 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% - 2.0% 1 1 % 8.0% 8.1% -% 1.5% 0.0% Q3 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 3.5% % -1.5% 1.5% % 1.5% -% -1.5% 1.6% -2.6% % % 1.6% 0.8% Note: In contrast to the situation in Canada and the United States, disclosure of overseas economic fi gures is much more approximate. The day of publication is therefore shown for information purposes only. The abbreviations m/m, q/q and y/y correspond to monthly, quarterly and yearly variation respectively. The times shown are Eastern Standard Time (GMT - 5 hours). 7
UNITED STATES Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2009 $B) Consumption (2009 $B) Government spending (2009 $B) Residential investment (2009 $B) Non-residential investment (2009 $B) Business inventory change (2009 $B)1 Exports (2009 $B) Imports (2009 $B) Final domestic demand (2009 $B) GDP deflator (2009 = 100) Labor productivity (2009 = 100) Unit labor cost (2009 = 100) Employment cost index (Dec. 2005 = 100) Current account balance ($B)1 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year 2017 2016 2015 3.5 4.0-4.0 0.8 3.5 9.1 3.1 1.7 1.2 2.4 6.4 --3.9 5.7 1.3 1.5 2.8-5.3 2 4.6-449.1 1.6 2.7 1.4 6.5 23.4 - -43 3.7 1 1.8 129.0 5.5 1.3 1.7-407.8 18,671 12,969 3,197 607.0 2,716 76.3 2,551 3,490 19,481 11 105.7 109.7 134.3-101.5 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. UNITED STATES Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Leading indicator (2010 = 100) ISM manufacturing index1 ISM non-manufacturing index1 Cons. confidence Conference Board (1985 = 100)1 Personal consumption expenditure (2009 $B) Disposable personal income (2009 $B) Consumer credit ($B) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Industrial production (2007 = 100) Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 New machinery orders ($M) New durable good orders ($M) Business inventories ($B) Housing starts (k)1 Building permits (k)1 New home sales (k)1 Existing home sales (k)1 Commercial surplus ($M)1 Nonfarm employment (k)2 Unemployment rate (%)1 Consumer price (1982 1984 = 100) Excluding food and energy Personal cons. expenditure deflator (2009 = 100) Excluding food and energy Producer price (2009 = 100) Export prices (2000 = 100) Import prices (2000 = 100) 1 VARIATION (%) LEVEL -1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year * 11 57.7 6 137.9 13,006 14,412 3,950 511,488 59.8 61.6 135.3 0.8 1.2 58.1 55.7 127.9 1.3 2.6 57.3 56.8 125.6 2.8 5.9 58.5 59.8 126.2 4.8 4.6 408,438 3.2 5.9 * * * * 109.1 78.4 515,334 248,520 1,967 1,228 1,263 55 5,220-54,019 149,750 3.7 252.8 78.5-4.4 1,210 1,270 585.0 5,150-53,309 250.0 3.7 78.0 2.7 0.0 1.5 1,184 1,303 612.0 5,340-45,739 654.0 3.9 1.3 78.2 3.4-1,276 1,364 672.0 5,450-46,693 1,295 3.9 4.1 76.8 7.9 6.7 4.4 1,265 1,343 637.0 5,500-44,407 2,516 4.1 258.9 108.6 2.0 11 2.0 117.2 127.8 128.4 1.5 3.1 3.5 Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 8
CANADA Quarterly economic indicators REF. QUART. Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Household consumption (2007 $M) Government consumption (2007 $M) Residential investment (2007 $M) Non-residential investment (2007 $M) VARIATION (%) LEVEL ANNUAL VARIATION (%) Quart. ann. 1 year 2017 2016 2015 Current account balance ($M)1 1,891,153 1,083,677 366,209 128,092 182,622 14,112 607,635 621,979 1,882,843 117.6 110.0 116.8-15,876 2.6 1.6 --1 6.5 2.7-1.6 6.7 -- 4.9 0.0 3.5 2.8 13,921 3.6-63,267 1.4 2.4-9.4 978.0 - - -65,372 1.6 3.8-11.3 4,711 3.5-0.8 - -71,526 Production capacity utilization rate (%)1 Disposable personal income ($M) Corporate net operating surplus (2007 $M) 85.5 1,248,172 283,584 --2.8 11.8 --3.9 4.6 8 4.9 19.9 8-8 4.7-19.8 Business inventory change (2007 $M)1 Exports (2007 $M) Imports (2007 $M) Final domestic demand (2007 $M) GDP deflator (2007 = 100) Labour productivity (2007 = 100) Unit labour cost (2007 = 100) 1 Statistics representing the level during the period; * New statistic in comparison with last week. CANADA Monthly economic indicators REF. MONTH Gross domestic product (2007 $M) Industrial production (2007 $M) Manufacturing sales ($M) Housing starts (k)1 Building permits ($M) Retail sales ($M) Excluding automobiles ($M) Wholesale trade sales ($M) Commercial surplus ($M)1 Exports ($M) Imports ($M) Employment (k)2 1 Unemployment rate (%) Average weekly earnings ($) Number of salaried employees (k)2 Consumer price (2002 = 100) Excluding food and energy Excluding 8 volatile items Industrial product price (2002 = 100) Raw materials price (2002 = 100) Money supply M1+ ($M) 1 Aug. Aug. * VARIATION (%) LEVEL 1,789,683 390,922 58,481 205.9 8,056 50,932-1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year 189.7 0.8 20-1.2 2.4 215.8-1.4 3.9 7.8 22-3.8 * 37,331 4.0 * 63,248-416.3 - -55-807.2-3,961 3.8-3,259 50,375 50,791 - - - -1.4 5.0-15.7 8.5 18,705 11.2 7.6 16.9 17.2 Aug. Aug. * 5.8 1,006 16,658 134.1 5.9 24.6 5.8 19.3-5.8 29.2 6.2 25.3 2.4 * * 128.8 132.4 1.6 118.9 11 992,223 - - -4.9 1.8 1.8 6.2 14.6 4.7 Statistic shows the level of the month of the column; 2 Statistic shows the variation since the reference month; * New statistic in comparison with last week. 9
UNITED STATES, CANADA, OVERSEAS Major financial indicators PREVIOUS DATA ACTUAL LAST 52 WEEKS IN % (EXPECTED IF INDICATED) 23 16-1 month -3 months -6 months -1 year Higher Average Lower United States Federal funds target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years S&P 500 index (level) DJIA index (level) Gold price (US$/ounce) CRB index (level) WTI oil (US$/barrel) 5 2.40 2.82 2.88 5 1 2,640 24,376 1,223 188 56 5 1 2.81 2.89 8 3 2,736 25,413 1,221 187.30 56.49 5 8 2.80 1 7 1 2,659 24,688 1,242 195.51 67.58 2.00 2.05 2.63 2.72 2.83 7 2,875 25,790 1,207 192.08 69.71 1.75 1.86 2.47 2.77 3 9 2,721 24,753 1,304 204 67.92 1.25 1.26 1.74 2.07 4 2.76 2,602 23,558 1,289 192 58.94 5 2.40 7 9 3.23 3.45 2,931 26,828 1,359 206.38 77.41 1.81 1.84 2.44 2.69 2.87 8 2,751 25,081 1,272 194.78 65.81 1.25 1.25 1.73 2.05 3 2.69 2,581 23,533 1,179 188 56 Canada Overnight target Treasury bill 3 months Treasury bonds 2 years Treasury bonds 5 years Treasury bonds 10 years Treasury bonds 30 years 1.75 1.70 4 0 5 2.40 1.75 1.70 2 9 6 2.42 1.75 1.72 6 4 9 2.43 1.50 1.52 3 1 6 6 1.25 1.28 6 9 5 8 0 0.87 1.44 1.62 1.89 3 1.75 1.73 6 2.48 2.60 8 1.33 1.30 4 2 6 5 0 0.87 1.42 1.59 1.83 0 Spread with the U.S. rate (% points) Overnight target -0 Treasury bill 3 months -0 Treasury bonds 2 years -8 Treasury bonds 5 years -7 Treasury bonds 10 years -0 Treasury bonds 30 years -1-0 -1-9 -0-2 -1-0 -6-4 -7-8 -0.88-0 -3-0 -1-7 -1-0 -8-1 -8-8 -1-5 -9-0 -5-5 -3-5 -9-8 -1-2 -5-8 -4-9 -7-0 -2-5 -4-7 -9-8 -3 S&P/TSX index (level) Exchange rate (C$/US$) Exchange rate (C$/ ) 14,931 1.3205 1.4972 15,156 1.3146 1.5013 14,888 1.3107 1.4946 16,356 1.3029 1.5144 16,076 1.2972 1.5115 16,108 1.2715 1.5170 16,567 1.3339 1.6130 15,886 1.2897 1.5284 14,722 1.2268 1.4771 Overseas ECB Refinancing rate Exchange rate (US$/ ) 335 420 403 623 652 931 1.2510 856 218 United Kingdom BoE Base rate Bonds 10 years FTSE index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) 5 1.38 6,953 1.2815 5 1.42 7,014 1.2839 5 1.38 6,940 1.2834 5 1.32 7,577 1.2845 0 1.37 7,730 1.3309 0 1.29 7,410 1.3338 5 1.72 7,877 1.4338 8 1.42 7,424 1.3422 0 8 6,889 1.2698 Bonds 10 years DAX index (level) 4 11,193 7 11,341 5 11,201 5 12,395 1 12,938 7 13,060 2 13,560 6 12,465 7 11,066 BoJ Main policy rate Nikkei index (level) Exchange rate (US$/ ) -0 21,647 112.85-0 21,680 112.84-0 21,185 111-0 22,602 111.24-0 22,451 109.40-0 22,551 111.55-0 24,271 114.54-0 22,468 119-0 20,618 104.74 CRB: Commodity Research Bureau; WTI: West Texas Intermediate; ECB: European Central Bank; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Note: Data taken at markets closing, with the exeption of the current day where they were taken at 11:00 a.m. 10