Daily Commentary Seattle Technical Advisors.com Ed Carlson, CMT SeattleTA.618@gmail.com Developed Markets US Equities rallied again on Wednesday; SPX +8.94, DJIA +83.55, but NASDAQ +22.67. With one more day in the month, Wall St. has every incentive to keep markets aloft to maximize fees charged at the end of the quarter (end of quarter window-dressing). A Hybrid Lindsay forecast points to a high near 3/29/16 but the next micro-cycle high isn t due until next Tuesday. It could come early or the Hybrid forecast could be late. This Friday, Apr 1, is 221 days from the low on Aug 24 (Lindsay s 224-day interval was a time window of 221-224 days. This interval often marks turns in the market). Last Friday s low at 2,022 is the pivotal low to keep our eyes on. A break of that level will signal that our top is in place. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 1
Cyclicals Semiconductors (SOX) are up 2.20% for the week closing at 680.79. Semis have thrice been saved by support near the 50% retracement of the 2011 rally. This has allowed SOX to build a massive, multi-year topping formation which will be triggered by a decline below 550. If triggered, the formation measures a minimum decline to below 350. S&P Energy topped on its annual cycle two weeks ago. The leg from Aug. to Nov. equaled the Jan-Mar rally. Relative performance (lower) is breaking the 2016 trendline; bearish. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 2
EuroStoxx 50 rallied 1.40% further above support at 2,921 to close at 2,968. Resistance is expected between here and 3,050. The bigger trend still appears to be downward. Emerging Markets MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) rose 1.03% to close at 34.28 above the 200-dma (lower) but below resistance at 34.50. Emerging markets currencies (center) have reached resistance. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 3
Shanghai Composite (SSEC) rose 2.77% to close at 3,000 near the top of the 2016 trading range but well below its 200-dma (3,466). 3-day RSI has not been below 20 since Feb. 29; bullish. The positively correlated Baltic Dry index (lower) broke to historic lows in February. US Treasuries TNX gained 0.88% to close at 18.30 after Tuesday s 3% drop. Importantly, TNX remains below the 30- dma. Given the correlation between TNX and equities (upper), this major break down should be of concern to the bulls. The smartest guys on Wall Street are on the bond desks. Anon. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 4
Currencies US Dollar fell 0.36% closing at 94.80. DXY has got to hold this month s low at 94.80 to remain bullish. A bullish divergence in the daily trend work (MACD) can be seen on the daily chart and the daily Coppock did not confirm last week s low. A rising Dollar is also key to the bearish call on equities. Euro gained 0.34% and closed at 1.1360 peeking over the top of the resistance zone. BWI is falling in non-confirmation of the three-day rally. The Coppock is high enough to look for a top in the currency but the Euro may be intent upon testing resistance at 1.15 before turning down. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 5
Commodities Crude Oil gave up $1.14/bbl. closing on support at 38.32 and printed an engulfing bearish candlestick. BWI has turned up to confirm the decline. Gold gave back $8.70 to close at 1,226.90 challenging support at 1,230. BWI (lower) is confirming the March decline. Short-term bearish, longer term I continue to look for higher highs. It s time to remember that gold sees a seasonal low sometime in June or July. 3/31/2016 The leading authority in Lindsay market analysis Page 6
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